咨询公司深度研究报告-IT管理服务的未来

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The Gartner Scenario for IT Services Providers: The Future of IT ServicesEric Rocco January 2011

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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IntroductionThe IT services market is seeing unprecedented change: Buyers are shifting from a strategy of reliance on proprietary IT assets that are unique to their company to … Accessing IT assets that are widely available to many companies and are delivered through a cloud services model.

Traditional IT services that are resource-intensive and delivered to highly customized, one-off infrastructures will wane in demand over the next 10 years.1

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Agenda/Outline Future of IT Services Market Application Services Infrastructure Services Business Process Services

Recommendations

2

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The IT Services Market Recovery TrajectoryPercentage Change in Spending 14

10

6

2

-2

-6

-10 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Software Support (Five -Year CAGR = 6.2%) Consulting (Five -Year CAGR = 4.9%) IT Management (Five -Year CAGR = 3.5%)Source: Gartner IT Services Forecast: 4Q10 Update

Process Management (Five -Year CAGR = 5.4%) Development and Integration (Five -Year CAGR = 4.4%) Hardware Maintenance and Support (Five -Year CAGR = 1.7%)

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2009 IT Services Competitive LandscapePlayers in the Traditional IT Services Market Today Top 10 leaders account for 27.3% of market 92 providers have more than $1 billion in total IT services revenue Worldwide IT Services Market, 2009 Share Leaders ($763.7 Billion)HP (-10.4%) Fujitsu 5% (-0.6%) 3% Accenture (-11.8%) 3% CSC (-6.5%) 2% Lockheed Martin (3.1%) 2% Capgemini (-8.7%) 2% NEC (3.1%) 1% NTT Data SAIC (7.6%) (7.7%) 1% 1%

Average annual growth rate (2008 to 2009) of top 10 leaders = - 4.9% Average annual growth rate (2008 to 2009) of all other providers = - 5.2% Average annual growth rate of India-based vendors: = 3.6% Low-cost onshore or global delivery is a factor for all major commercial providers' strategiesSource: Gartner IT Services Market Share, 2009 (X%) = provider's annual growth; X% = market shareAll Others (-5.2%) 73%

IBM (-6.6%) 7%

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The IT Services Market Is ReshapingOptimizationBusiness Strategy Consulting

Business Value-Add

CreationCloud-Based Business Process Services

Custom BPO~HR~ Logistics~F&A

Custom Solutions IT Consulting ERP~SCM~CRM~BI CRM Call Center App. Develop. and Integration Transaction Processing Enterprise App. Mgmt. One-to-

Vertical/ProcessSpecific Business Process Ut

ility Horizontal Business Process Utility SaaS

Cloud-Based Application Services Shared

One

Remote Delivery Megashift in IT services toward cloud-based services Managed Services Data Center Outsourcing Hosting/ Colocation Infrastructure Utility Storage on Demand Value Network Utility

One-toMany

Desktop Management Network Services Help Desk Outsourcing

Cloud-Based Application Infrastructure Services Cloud-Based System Infrastructure Services

Management

IT Efficiency

Access

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The Future of IT Services: Overall Situation and Key TrendsImagine a world where "Service" enables the business, providers form ecosystems, and business enterprises own no IT assets.

Major Forces Affecting the Future of IT Services Adoption of alternative delivery models- Forecast: Cloud services forecast — In the next five years, enterprises will spend $112 billion cumulatively on SaaS, PaaS and IaaS combined.

Externalization of IT asset ownership- Supporting prediction: By 2012, 20% of businesses will own no IT assets.

More choices and lower switching costs for buyers- Supporting prediction: By 2013, low-cost IT services will accelerate innovation, hinder market growth and depress traditional vendors' capitalization.6

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The Future of IT Services: Overall Situation and Key Trends Emphasis on the lines of business influencing buying decisions in the enterprise.- Related prediction: By 2015, BPO contracts will be responsible for managing 20% of global IT spending.

Vendor economic models will see unprecedented change.- Supporting prediction: By 2014, at least one cloud-based provider will be an entrant to the top-10 global IT services providers.

Technology innovations will change the role of technology in the enterprise and the value that service providers deliver.- Countering prediction: Through 2014, despite abundant cash, enterprise IT-service-enabled innovation will not fulfill expectations, because of risk-averse spending attitudes.7

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The Future of IT Services: Cloud Computing — One of the Dominant Forces"All that matters is results;I don't care how it's done." "I don't want to own assets; I want to pay for elastic use, like a utility." "I want accessibility from anywhere, from any device." "It's about economies of scale, with effective and dynamic sharing."

Acquisition ModelService Business Model Pay for use Access Model Internet Technical Model Scalable, elastic, shareable

Cloud Computing:A style of computing where scalable and elastic IT-enabled capabilities are provided "as a service" to external customers using Internet technologies*

Global-class industrialization ofcomputing resources and services

EC2 and S3

*Where the consumers of the services need only care about what the service does for them, not how it is implemented

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The Future of IT Services: Cloud Adoption as a Major ESP OpportunityIn the next five years, enterprise spending of $112 billion on SaaS, PaaS and IaaS SaaS and IaaS are the major opportu

nitiesBillions of U.S. Dollars 25 20

SaaS - All Markets IaaS - TotalIaaS - Compute Services

15 10 5 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

IaaS - Storage Services IaaS - Backup Services

IaaS — 2013 market to be worth $8 billion (up from $6.8 billion forecast last year) SaaS establishing itself as the new norm for the software industry Slightly slower spending on all IT over the next few years9

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The Future of IT Services: Recommendations for Service Providers Constantly re-evaluate your cost structure, and make it flexibleenough to cope with a potential cannibalization of revenue/margins from traditional IT services that will continue over time.

IT budget plans and demand are shifting to ubiquitous cloudcomputing-based assets that are accessed by customers. ESPs must lead the curve of investment in the skills and capabilities of their service offerings, which means investing before having contracts.

Factor industrialized services and low-cost IT offerings into yourbusiness and offering road map. Evolve investment plans, marketing and design capabilities, portfolio of services and relative delivery engine.

Prepare for hypercompetition, M&A activity and your competitors"buying business" as this market moves back into growth and new competitors come from nontraditional quarters — entrants from other geographies, entrants from business services, entrants from the telcos, and startup companies.10

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The Future of IT Services: Research Highlights — Published ResearchOverall View of the Future of IT Services "Steering Your Business Through the IT Services and Outsourcing Revolution," G00206038 "Predicts 2011: Technology, IT Industrialization and Cloud Computing Clash With Obsolete Traditions "for IT Service Buyers and Vendors," G00209028 "Marketing Essentials: How to Adapt Your IT Services Value Proposition to a Changing Market," G00205482 "The Future of IT Services: Five Threats to the Industry, and What External Service Providers Need to Do," G00205604 "The Future of IT Services: Positive Impacts on Service Providers' Opportunities," G00205753 "Uncertainty and Low Prices Could Stall the Growth of the IT Services Market by 2013," G00205513 "Value Gap and Consumerization Could Disrupt Traditional IT Service Providers by 2015," G00205539 "Dataquest Insight: Impact of Cloud Computing on IT Outsourcing Providers' Opportunities," G00172544 "Forecast: Public Cloud Services, Worldwide and Regions, Industry Sectors, 2009-2014," G00200833 "Forecast: Understanding the Traditional IT Services Opportunities Related to Cloud Computing, Worldwide, 2009-2013," G00172126 "User Survey Analysis: Cloud-Computing Budgets Are Growing and Shifting; Traditional IT Services Providers Must Prepare or Perish," G00205813

Factors Affecting the Future of IT Services

Cloud Computing and the Future of IT Services

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The Future of IT Services: Research Highlights — 2011 ResearchSpotlight — Fut

ure of IT Services, Update This Spotlight will deliver research that defines the quadrants of the FITS scenario and answers the following: How do FITS factors influence IT services buyer behavior? What new services must vendors offer to thrive? What current services will survive or die? What are the characteristics of BIC dominant vendors?

Spotlight — Cloud Services Value Chain This Spotlight will update Gartner's Services Value Chain research and focus on specific cloud domains, such as IaaS, SaaS, communications as a service, etc. And it will detail: The service offerings in each domain Prominent and emerging vendors New vendor roles for the domain, such as aggregator, integrator, broker, etc.

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Overall Trends in Infrastructure Services: In the Midst of an Evolutionary Journey!250

200

Servers 150

Industrialized infrastructure offerings are necessary to protect profitability in a stagnant market. However, they will also offer the highest growth potential (e.g., infrastructure utility for SAP). Virtualization and automation are partially tapped but will radically shape how infrastructure services are delivered and priced, driving focus on accessing services, not owning assets. Global delivery, a pillar of infrastructure service industrialization, continues to shape the way services are structured and delivered.

DCO Staff Revenue / Server Cost / Staff

100Staff Cost / Server

50

02004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Gartner — Multiyear data from 2004 through 2010, yearly updates of European DCO MQs13

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Infrastructure Services: Cloud Evolution — Handle With Care!Potential Growth To reduce the cost needed to run the business, clients want infrastructure optimization delivered via industrialized services. The shift from public to private will accelerate deployment of infrastructure-based cloud solutions.Transform Business Grow Business Run Business Grow Business

10-20% 20-25% 60-65%

BUT ALSOMany Dangers Cloud-based solutions will force providers to face tough challenges: new competition/market disruptors, upfront investment, technology innovation and lock-in reinvention. An overcrowded market will challenge profitability, market growth and differentiation.14

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Infrastructure Services: Recommendations for Service Providers Rationalization and standardization of infrastructure servicesportfolio is a must; assume that industrialized infrastructure services will happen, with or without you. To remain competitively priced and profitable, continuous investments in portfolio rationalization, automation and standardization initiatives are required. Accelerate the globalization of resources; infrastructure services must take further advantage of global delivery models. As the market industrializes, your value proposition and the nature of services marketing changes; your value proposition benefits from increased discipline in branding. Manage growth aspirations in order to meet p

rofitability targets. Remain disciplined in your bid qualification process. Define and deploy new rules of client and service delivery engagement (pricing, tooling, processes and methodologies).15

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Infrastructure Services: Research Listings/Highlights Recently Published- "Comparing Infrastructure Utility Services and Private Clouds," G00207368 - "TCS' IT-as-a-Service Offering for SMBs Shows Potential for Success," G00206348 - "Search Analytics Trends: Cloud and IT Outsourcing," G00205731 - "Competitive Landscape: Cloud Storage Infrastructure as a Service, North America, 2010," G00175891 - "Magic Quadrant for Help Desk Outsourcing, Europe," G00201426 - "Competitive Landscape: IT Infrastructure Outsourcing in Asia/Pacific at a Difficult Stage," G00201331 - "Trends and Tactics for Extending the Useful Life of Hardware and Software Assets," G00174120

Forthcoming- "Toolkit: RFI/RFP Template for Hardware Third-Party Maintenance" - "Network Outsourcing in Mobile and Cloud-Centric Outsourcing, 2010-2011" - "IT Infrastructure Outsourcing in Germany: May the Journey Toward the Cloud Begin" - "Data Center Polling Survey: Cloud Storage"16

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Overall Trends in Application Services: The Future Is Already HereForces disrupting how IT services are bought, deployed and consumed are farthest along in the application layer of the technology stack.1990Dimension

2000One Factory, Some CustomersClient/server to thin client Industrialized, capacityand methodology-driven Core versus noncore processes/functions Transaction or outputbased, fixed cost/ gain share Fixed capacity "Packaged applications" Months

2010+One Factory, All CustomersThin client to no client "By the drink," capacityand IP-driven What difference does it make? Pay as you go Flexibility (scale up and scale down) "SaaS" Weeks (or days!)

One Factory, One CustomerCustom to client/server

Issues for Providers More options and lower switching costs for buyers

Service Delivery Process View Pricing/ Contracting Resourcing Examples Time to Deploy

Custom, people-driven Differentiated processes/functions Input-based, hours x rates or fixed cost Staff to (and price to) demand "Homegrown" Years

More price competition and pressure to differentiate How you deliver matters at least as much as what you deliver Value = business model fit

A radically changed market by 201517

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Buyer and Seller Interests Are at Odds in Application ServicesBuyers want: Doable and NowIT Scalable/reliable Interopable/ standardized Cost/maintenance Business Agility "Good enough" Easy to use

Sellers want to: Own the Stack

Perceived Buyer BenefitsBetter prices Lower switching costs Less provider reliance

Perceived Threat to ProvidersMargin erosion Decline in loyalty Limited visibility

SPA: By 2015, tools and automation will eliminate 25% of labor hours associated with IT services.

SPA: By 2015, all leading CRM ESPs will invest in their own bolt-on CRM application software

.

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What Does This Mean for …Providers Emphasize their stack Seek to manage your stack Business Models Price and product parity Forces focus on "service" Competition More and "unusual suspects" Continuing M&A

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Application Services: Recommendations for Service Providers Carefully select areas of investment, leveraging industry and processstrengths.

Leverage automation tools offered by software vendors, as well asdeveloping own tools where appropriate.

Refocus attention on value-added services, while automating asmuch as possible.

Drive competitive advantage by aggressively recouping investmentsin tools and automation, in order to offer reduced cost and risks.

Systematically review, prune and enhance marketing messages toemphasize the client value that you deliver.

Promote your value-add: your ability to meet the business needs —not just functionality and price.

20

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