CSM’03 17th JISR-IIASA Workshop on Methodologies and Tools for Complex System Modeling and

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

CSM’03

17thJISR-IIASAWorkshopon

MethodologiesandToolsfor

ComplexSystemModelingand

IntegratedPolicyAssessment

8–10September,2003

Abstracts

InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysisLaxenburg,Austria

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

Sep-01-2003,21:08-i-CSM’03Contents

N.Baba,Effectiveutilizationofsoftcomputingtechniquesfortheconstructionoftheintelligent

decisionsupportSystemstodealstocks

A.Beulens,TransparencyinFoodSupplyChainsandNetworks:ModelingandInfrastructure

Issues.

J.Climaco,C.GomesdaSilva,J.Figueira,Onthepotentialitiesofthescattersearchmethod-

ologytodealwithbicriteriacombinatorialproblems-Theknapsackcase

X.Cui,Y.Li,L.Xia,J.Zhang,AnattributeddirectedgraphmodelofHWMEbasedonInternetR.Dai,J.Yu,J.Gu,Ametasyntheticapproachfordecisionsupportsystem

M.Flechsig,U.Boehm,T.Nocke,Themulti-runsimulationenvironmentSimEnv12681013W.Foell,U.Said,Policy-basedmodelingofIndonesianenergysystems:aretrospectiveand

prospectiveview15M.Funabashi,K.Homma,M.Kosaka,TheYaoyorozuprojectfordesigningubiquitousinfor-

mationsocietybasedontrans-disciplinaryscienceandtechnology17J.Gondzio,A.Grothey,Parallelinteriorpointsolverforlarge-scalestructurednonlinearpro-

grams19H.Gottinger,Technologicalracesinglobalindustries20J.Granat,C.Chudzian,Preprocesingofthedataindecisionsupportsystems-aMiningMart

approach21M.Grauer,G.Stuff,T.Barth,P.Neuser,O.Reichert,M.Gerdes,Virtualprototypinginmanu-

facturingbasedoncomplexsystems22J.Gu,H.Wang,P.Zhang,F.Fang,X.Tang,Metasynthesissystemsmodelingwithhelpof

expertsgroup23O.Hryniewicz,Statisticaltestofindependenceofqualitativevariablesinthepresenceofim-

preciseinformation25K.Inoue,H.Nakanishi,Designingaero-robotrescuesystemfordisasterresponse26S.Kaden,M.Redetzky,M.Kaltofen,ArcGRM:Interactivesimulationsystemforwaterre-

sourcesplanningandmanagementinlargeriverbasins27M.Kainuma,Y.Matsuoka,T.Morita,ClimatepolicyassessmentbyAIM(Asia-Paci cInte-

gratedModel)29N.Komoda,Y.Takada,N.Kawamura,H.Oiso,Thelocation-awarein-houseinformationpro-

vidingsystembyusingBluetooth31L.Kru´s,Towardscooperativestrategiesininnovationactivity33

A.Lewandowski,Streamingoptimizationindecisionsupportsystems:theCOPLEXapproach35M.Makowski,AStructuredModelingTechnology39

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

CSM’03-ii-Sep-01-2003,21:08W.Micha owski,R.S owi´nski,S.Wilk,Providingdecisionsupportanytimeandanywhere:

METsystemexperience43Y.Nakamori,SystemsMethodologyforKnowledgeManagement45H.Nakayama,K.Washino,Optmimizationofblack-boxobjectivefunctionsusingsupportvec-

tormachines46W.Ogryczak,Multiplecriteriaoptimizationanddecisionsunderrisk

Z.Pawlak,Dataminingand owgraphs

W.Reinisch,Optimalcrewmanagementandschedulingintransportation474951J.Saltbones,J.Bartnicki,Meteorologicalinformationsupportingthedecision-makerincaseof

nuclearaccidents.Whatismostneeded?53H.Sebastian,F.Golm,J.Wollenweber,AnEvolutionaryApproachforRecycling-NetworkOp-

timizationintheAutomotiveIndustry54S.Stagl,F.Rauschmeyer,Integratedassessmentforsustainabledevelopment-understanding

weightsinmulticriteriaevaluations55H.Tamura,Behavioralaspectsofdecisionanalysiswithapplicationtomodelingandevaluation

ofsafe,secureandreliable(SSR)society57X.Tang,Y.Liu,J.Gu,Groupargumentationforknowledgecreation:ameta-syntheticap-

proach58F.Tian,C.Guo,Y.Lu,MacroeconomicsystemmodelingwithDBNs

J.Wessels,E.Jordaan,G.Smits,Automaticmodellingforprocessmonitoring6063

A.Wierzbicki,ModellingandtheDevelopmentofKnowledge-BasedEconomy;TheRoleof

InformationInfrastructureandInformationSocietyTechnologies64Y.Yun,H.Nakayama,M.Yoon,Onsupportvectormachinesusingtotalmarginforimproving

generalizationability65X.Zhou,J.Yu,S.Feng,Y.Chen,Metasynthesesmethodologyanditsapplicationtoeconomy

system66ListofParticipants69

Note:Theabstractshavebeenprocessedautomaticallyusingtheabstractformse-mailedbytheauthors.Onlyonesubstantivetypeofmodi cationhasbeenapplied,i.e.,inafewcasestheco-authorhasbeennamed rst,ifonlyhe/shewillparticipateintheWorkshop.

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

Sep-01-2003,21:08-1-CSM’03Effectiveutilizationofsoftcomputingtechniquesfortheconstructionof

theintelligentdecisionsupportSystemstodealstocks

NORIOBABA

InformationScience,OsakaKyoikuUniversity

Keywords:neuralnetworks,geneticalgorithms,Nikkei-225,TOPIX,prediction,movingaverage,goldencross,intelligentDSS

TheuseofsoftcomputingtechniquessuchasNNs,GAs,andetc.inthe nancialmarkethasrecentlybecomeoneofthemostexcitingandpromisingapplicationareas.Inourtalk,weshallintroduceourrecenttrialsinordertoconstructintelligentdecisionsupportsystemsfordealingstocks.

Ourtalkhasthefollowingtwoparts:

1)NNsareutilizedinordertomakeforecastofseveralindexessuchasTOPIXandNikkei-225(andalsoseveralindividualstocks)fourweeksinthefuture.ArathersophisticateddecisionsupportsystemwhichexploitstheforcastsgivenbyNNsisproposed.Further,GAsareutilizedinorderto ndanappropriatecombinationofparametervaluesinvolvedintheDSSandaneffectivewayofdealings.Theef cacyoftheproposedDSSiscon rmedbyseveralcomputersimulationstudies.

2)Traditionally,manystocktradershaveutilizedthemeasure((Longtermmovingaverage(suchas13weeksmovingaverage))-(Shorttermmovingaverage(suchas5weeksmovingaverage)))(LMA-SMA)inordertodetectupanddowntendencyofthestockmarket.Inourtalk,weshalldemonstratebytheseveralcomputersimulationsthattheDSSwhosedealingsaredonebythemeasure(LMA-SMA)isfurtherimprovedbytheutilizationofGAsandAItechniques.

References

[1]N.BabaandH.Suto,”UtilizationofArti cialNeuralNetworksandTD-LearningMethodfor

ConstructingIntelligentDecisionSupportSystems”,EuropeanJournalofOperationsResearch,Vol.122,pp.501-508,2000.

[2]N.Baba,”UtilizationofSoftComputingTechniquesforDealingintheTOPIXandtheNikkei-

225”,ProceedingsoftheKES2002,pp.374-380,Milano,Italy,September,2002.

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

CSM’03-2-Sep-01-2003,21:08

TransparencyinFoodSupplyChainsandNetworks:Modelingand

InfrastructureIssues.

ADRIAAN(ADRIE)J.M.BEULENS

WageningenUniversity,DepartmentofSocialSciencesandKLICT

Keywords:foodsupplychains,networks,referencemodels

FoodsafetyiscurrentlyconsideredtobeanimportantissueforallstakeholdersofFoodSupplyChainNetworks(SCN).ConsumersandotherstakeholdersinandoftheSCNareincreasinglyconcernedaboutfoodscandals(BSE,FMD,MPA,Nitrofen,etc.).Highqualityfood,integrityandassociatedservicesandinformationshouldbeguaranteed.Consumerscallforinformationonpropertiesoffoodthatcanbefullytrusted.ThisrequirementissupportedandvoicedinparticularbyretailerswhotranslatetheseconsumerrequirementsintorequirementstobemetupstreamintheSCN.Further,consumerdemandsareenhancedbyNGO’sandlegislators.Thelegislatorisintheprocessofde ningnewpolicies,regulationsandlawstobeadheredto(GeneralFoodLawasof2005).Inturn,thesedevelopmentsandrequirementshaveledtoresponsesofthebusinesscommunity(BC)participatinginSCN.Thereisagrowingconsciousnessoftheimportanceofintegrity,guaranteedqualityandassociatedtransparency.Also,thereisagrowingactivitytoimproveontheseissuesbothontheleveloftheSCNasawholeaswellasontheleveloftheindividualparticipatingcompany.Theyallseemtorecognizemoreandmorethatregainingorimprovingtrustoftheconsumerheavilydependsoneffectivelytacklingtheissuesonbothlevelsjustmentioned.

Integrity,guaranteedquality,trust,transparencyandtrackingandtracingareoftenmentionedanddiscussedseparately.However,intheBusinessCommunityitisalsowellrecognisedthattheseissuesareheavilyinterdependent.Withoutguaranteedqualitytheotherissueshavenorealvalue.TheBusinessCommunityfurtherregardstheseissuesnexttomanyotherdevelopmentsinsocietyandtechnologyasimportantdrivingforcesforcontinuousinnovation.Asaconsequence,inthemarketplaceweseemanydevelopmentswhereresponsesaresoughtanddevelopedinthedirectionofcreatingSCNwithdistinguishableproductofferings(brandedproductswithassociatedinformationandservices),associatedqualityandtransparencysystemsforgovernance,(management)co-ordinationandtrackingandtracing.

Organizingtheseco-operationsaswellasmakingthemworkinpracticewith(information)systemsandinfrastructuresinplaceisnotaneasytask.Importantelementsarethepresenceofleadership,visionandentrepreneurialpower.

Inthispaperwewillillustratethechallengesjustdiscussedonthebasisofoneprojectandoneapproach.In2000agroupofSME’sinthepoultryeggchaininacombinationofhorizontalandverticalpartnerships,joinedforcesinaPublicPrivatePartnershipproject.

Theobjectivewastoguaranteethequalityoftheirproductstotheconsumerandtoprovideinfor-mationforassociatedtransparency.Thisco-operationinvolvedallpartiesintheeggchainfrombreed-ingGPS,downtothepackingstations,feedproducers,vets,aconsultancycompany(QualitySystemsandCerti cation),WageningenUniversity,theTechnologicalUniversityofEindhovenandKLICT(anagencyfororganisingPPP’s).Initiallyinspiredbytheconsultancycompany,thefeedcompanyandKLICT,itstartedoffaimingatguaranteeingalicensetoproduceforthefuture.Thiswasexpectedtoleadtoguaranteedqualityandassociatedtransparencytotheultimateconsumerwhilepreservingtheautonomyofpartnersinvolvedandsafeguardingtheirindividualinterests.Tomeettheobjectivesofco-operatingSME’sinavirtualenvironment,theyaimedatsharedqualitystandardsandasharedin-formationinfrastructure(IIS);thisenabledthepartnerstoguaranteequalityandeffectiveandef cient

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

Sep-01-2003,21:08-3-CSM’03responseincaseofemergingproblems.

Reviewingtheprocess,weencounteredmanyproblemsrelatedtoachievingthegoalsmentionedbefore.Howeverovertime,inthesectorandinparticularinthegroupofcompaniesinvolved,asharedvisiononproblemsandopportunitiesevolved,mutualtrustdevelopedandobjectiveschangedintomorechallengingandcomprehensiveones.Sharedinsightsandobjectives,regardednon-competitivewithinthegroupwerefoundtobeimportanttodistinguishthisgroupfromcompetitorsintheeggsector.

Summarising,theprojectledto:

1.AsharedinsightthataddedvaluetotheclientandconsumerwithguaranteedqualityandassociatedtransparencyrequiresaSCNapproach.

2.Sharedobjectivestobemetandconstraintstobesatis ed(autonomyoftheparticipantsandsafeguardswithrespecttoinformationaccessanduse).

3.SharedunderstandingthatsuchaSCNcanbeimplementedandmaintained.

4.Waysofworking,co-operation,co-ordinationandgovernanceand

5.AframeworkforasharedIISthatisabletointerfacewithinformationsystemsofpartnersinvolvedwhilesatisfyingaccessandusagerestrictions.

6.A rstversionofareferenceinformationmodelforTrackingandTracingandaprototypeTrackingandTracingsystem.

7.Amemorandumofunderstanding,principlesandco-operationasaguidanceforco-operation.

Asdescribedbytheparticipants,theprojectshowsthefeasibilityofanSCNforSME’sinavirtualco-operationwhilepreservingtheirautonomytoalargeextent.TheyseemtobeabletomakethestepfromapuremarketorientedapproachtowardsaSCNapproachwithoutadominatingandenforcingpower.

IntheBusinessCommunityweseeotherinitiativesaimingatmoreorlessthesametypeofobjectivesbutorganisedinadifferentmanner.TheyorganisethemselvesinasocalledclosedSCNenvironmentwiththeirownIISandqualitysystemandapproachandprovideincentivesforco-operationforpartnersupstreamintheirchain.Thisapproachisoftenseeninareasofbrandedproductsofhighaddedvalue(e.g.PoultraceandNutrace).

However,allapproachesforcreatingandimplementingSCNwithassociatedqualitysystems,in-formationsystemsandIISseemtohaveincommonthatinallcasesanumberofquestionsneedtobeanswered.Theyencompassquestionssuchashowdowe:

1.Determinewhatproducts,servicesandassociatedinformationdoweactuallyhavetodeliverandwhataretheassociatedqualityandperformancerequirements.

2.Ensurethatweactuallyperformandachieveonthebasisofthequalitythatwehavede ned.Thispertainstoproducts,servicesandinformation.

3.Proveorshowthatwehaveactuallydoneaspromisedforeachbusinesstransaction.Thisispureinformationprocessinganddelivery.MakesurethatnecessaryobservationsaremadeandrecordedwithintegritythroughouttheSCNandthereafterusedtoprovideforrequiredinformation.

4.(Pro)reactincaseofafoodprobleminordertominimiseitsscopeandeffectandmaintainconsumertrust.Againthisdependstoalargeextendonobservedandrecordedinformationwhichwillallowef cientandeffectivetrackingandtracing.

5.(Pro)reactincaseofaproblemrelatedtothequalityofserviceorinformationprovidedtostakeholders.Thisagaininordertominimiseitsscopeandeffectandmaintainorimproveconsumertrust.Thisalsodependstoalargeextendonobservedandrecordedinformationandonthewaythisinformationismadeavailabletoconsumersorotherstakeholders.

6.Gettheknowledgenecessaryfordevelopingandimplementingbetterbusinessprocesses,associatedmanagementcontrol,relatedinformationsystems,processesandinformationinfrastructuresthatwillallowfoodchainstoachievewhathasbeenspeci edinpreviouspoints.

Inthepreviouspartofthisabstractwebrie ypaidattentiontosomeissuesrelatedtofoodsafetyandtoassociatedinformationproblems.TheinformationproblemshavetodowithIISonthelevelofSCN,withtheconnectionwithIISofinformationsystemsofcompaniesparticipatinginSCN,withtransparency,withtrackingandtracing,withperformancerequirementstobesatis edandwithwaysinwhichthesesysteminnovationscanbebroughtabout.Inourresearchprojectswehavethusfarlearned

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

CSM’03-4-Sep-01-2003,21:08that:

1.Thereisnosharedde nitionandunderstandingoftrackingandtracing,integrityandinparticularoftransparency.Wefoundavarietyofdescriptionsofthetermindictionariesandoperationalde nitions.Operationalde nitionsintermsofwhenasituationisperceivedtobetransparentornot.Inourresearchwethereforearrivedatthefollowingde nitionoftransparency:TransparencyofaSCN(netchain)istheextenttowhichallthenetchain’sstakeholdershaveasharedunderstandingof,andaccessto,theproduct-relatedinformationthattheyrequest,withoutloss,noise,delayanddistortion.

ingupwiththereferenceinformationmodelsnecessaryisacumbersomeanddif cultprocess.

3.DesigningaworkingInformationInfrastructureforaSCNthatisabletointerfacewiththeISofpartic-ipatingcompaniesisalsoaverydif cultproblem,inparticularwhentakingintoaccountperformancerequirements.

InourpresentationwewillelaborateontheissuesofIISneededfortransparencyinSCNandpayinparticularattentiontotransparency,trackingandtracingandtheassociatedmodellingchallengesfortheICTcommunity.FormoreinformationonthesubjectsaddressedinthisabstractIwouldliketorefertotheenclosedlistofreferences.

References

[1]Abbot,H.(1991)Managingproductrecall:acomprehensiveguidetoestablishingaproductrecall

plan,Pitman,London,UK.

[2]APICS(1998).APICSDictionary.TheEducationalSocietyforResourceManagement,J.F.Cox

III,J.H.BlackstoneJr.(Ed.),NinthEdition,USA.

[3]Cheng,M.J.andSimmons,J.E.L.(1994)Traceabilityinmanufacturingsystems,in:International

JournalofOperationsandProductionManagement,vol14,no.10,pp4-16.

[4]Crama,Y.,Pochet,YandWera,Y.(2001)ADiscussionofProductionPlanningApproachesinthe

ProcessIndustry,CenterforOperationsResearchdiscussionpaperCORE2001/42.

[5]Deasy,D.J.(2002)Foodsafetyandassurace:Theroleofinformationtechnology,in:International

JournalofDairyTechnology,vol55,issue1,2002.

[6]Dorp,C.A.van,Beulens,A.J.M.andBeers,G.(2001)ERPinSemi-Process:RequirementsCapture

forTrackingandTracing.Proceedingsofthe7thAmericasConferenceonInformationSystems(AMCIS2001),(Ed.)D.Strong,D.StraubandJ.I.DeGross,AssociationforInformationSystems,August2-5,Boston,Massachusetts,USA.

[7]Bernus,P.,Mertins,KandSchmidt,G.(1998)Handbookonarchitecturesofinformationsystems,

SpringerVerlag,Berlin.

[8]Iivari,J,Hirschheim,R.andKlein,H.K.(1998)Aparadigmaticanalysiscontrastinginformation

systemsdevelopmentapproachesandmethodologies,InformationSystemsResearch9/2pp164-193

[9]Loos,P.(2001).GozintographsforBy-ProductsandCyclicProduction:AnApproachforERP

SystemApplication.Proceedingsofthe7thAmericasConferenceonInformationSystems(AMCIS2001),(Ed.)D.Strong,D.StraubandJ.I.DeGross,AssociationforInformationSystems,August2-5,Boston,Massachusetts,USA.

[10]Moe,T.(1998)Perspectivesontraceabilityinfoodmanufacture,in:FoodandScienceTechnology,

nr9,pp211-214.

[11]Petroff,J.N.andHill,A.V.H.(1991)Aframeworkforthedesignoflot-tracingsystemsforthe

1990’sin:ProductionandInventoryManagementJournal,volume32,issue2,pp55-61.

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

Sep-01-2003,21:08-5-CSM’03

[12]Scheer,A.W.(1998).BusinessProcessEngineering:ReferenceModelsforIndustrialEnterprises,

StudyEdition,Springer-VerlagBerlin,Heidelberg,Germany.

[13]Scipioni,A.,Saccarola,G.,Centazzo,A.andArena,F.(2002)FMEAmethodology,implementa-

tionandintegrationwithHACCPsysteminafoodcompany,in:FoodControl(inpress).

[14]Steele,D.C.A.(1995)Structureforlot-tracingdesign,in:ProductionandInventoryManagement

Journal,vol.36,no.1,pp.53-59,1995.

[15]Tayryla,I.(1999)Realisingthepotentialoftraceability,PhDHelsinkiUniversityofTechnology,

Espoo,Finland.

[16]Trienekens,J.H.andBeulens,A.J.M.(2001)TheimplicationsofEUfoodsafetylegislationand

consumerdemandsonsupplychaininformationsystems,InternationalFoodandAgribusinessManagementAssociation,the11thAnnualWorldFoodandAgribusinessForum,Sydney,Aus-tralia.

[17]Trienekens,J.H.andBeulens,A.J.M.(2003)InnovationsThrough(International)FoodSupply

ChainDevelopment:AResearchAgenda.InternationalFoodandAgribusinessManagementAs-sociation,the13thAnnualWorldFoodandAgribusinessForum,Cancun,Mexico.

[18]/(2003),papersoffocusareaoftransparency.

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

CSM’03-6-Sep-01-2003,21:08

Onthepotentialitiesofthescattersearchmethodologytodealwith

bicriteriacombinatorialproblems-Theknapsackcase

JOAOCLIMACO

CoimbraUniversityandINESC-Coimbra

CARLOSGOMESDASILVA

INESC-Coimbra

JOSEFIGUEIRA

CoimbraUniversityandINESC-Coimbra

Keywords:knapsackproblems,metaheuristics,scattersearch,multicriteriaanalysis

Thescattersearchisanevolutionarymethodthatcreatessolutionsbycombiningothersolutionsus-ingstrategiesthatexploittheknowledgeontheproblem.Takingintoaccountmultiplesolutionsasafoundationtocreatenewones,scattersearchenhancestheexplorationoftheinformationnotcontainedineachindividualsolutionbymeansofheuristicsthatcombinethemusingmechanismsthatpromotedi-versityandquality.Theprocessofsolvingaproblembymeansofcreatingprogressivelybettersolutionsisstructuredinthefollowingcomponents:adiversi cationgenerationmethod,animprovementmethod,areferencesetupdatemethod,asubsetgenerationmethod,andacombinationmethod(Glover,1999).

Recently,scattersearchhasbeensuccessfullyusedforsolvingcombinatorialandnonlinearoptimi-sationproblemssuchasvehicleroutingproblems,travellingsalespersonproblems,unconstrainedopti-misationproblems,andtreeproblems,andinseveralapplicationareassuchas nancialproductsdesign,neuralnetworkstrainingandcombatforcesassessmentmodels(Glover,1999andLagunaandMarti,2003).Inmanyrealworldsituationsmorethanonepointofviewshouldbeexplicitlyconsidered.Inthesecircumstancesmulticriteriamodelsandtheassociatedsolutionapproachesconstituteaninterestingresearcharea.However,incombinatorialproblems,theexactgenerationofallnondominatedsolutionsforlargesizeinstancesisusuallytooexpensiveregardingthecomputationalef ciency.So,thedevelop-mentofheuristicsisarichstreamofresearch.Scattersearchisapopulationbasedmethodsuitablefortacklingproblemswithseveralcriteria.Nevertheless,tillnowjustafewnumberofapproachesdedicatedtothemulticriteriacasehavebeenproposed.

Inthispaperitisshownthatthemethodologysubjacenttoscattersearchcanbeusefultoobtainanaccurateapproximationofthenondominatedsolutionssetinbicriteriacombinatorialproblems.Specialattentionispaidtothewellknownknapsackproblem.Severalauthorshavealreadyextensivelystudiedtheclassicalbicriteria0,1knapsackproblem.Recently,someexactmethodstocalculatethewholesetofnondominatedsolutionsforthiscasewereproposed(Viseeetal.,1998andCaptivoetal.,2003),butonlymoderatesizeinstancescanbecompletelysolved(about500variableswithmethodofViseeetal.andwiththemethodofCaptivoetal.),justifyingthedevelopmentofscattersearchbasedprocedurestodealwithlargerinstances.Experimentalresultsshowthatagoodapproximationofthenondominatedsolutionssetcanbeobtainedbyimprovinganinitialgroupofsolutions,andcombiningtheminapos-terioriphase.Thisenablestheexplorationof”goodneighbourhoods”detectedduringtheevaluationofthecombinedsolutions.

Inthiswork,particularattentionispaidtotheinitialsolutionssetgeneratormethodandtothe

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

Sep-01-2003,21:08-7-CSM’03improvementofthesesolutions,whichisresponsiblebythedegreeofintensi cationpresentedinthemethod.Thereferencesetshouldbecomposedbyallthepotentiallynondominatedsolutionspreviouslyobtained.However,asthenumberofthesesolutionsisverylargeitisnecessarytoaggregatetheminclusters.Theclustersarebuiltaccordingtoametricdistancebetweensolutionsinthedecisionspace.So,thereferencesetisbuiltbyselectingasolutionfromeachcluster.Thesubsetmethodselectssolutionsfromthereferencesetusingtheproximitybetweenthem.Inthecombinationmethod,putationalresultsconcerningtheproposedapproacharealsopresentedanddiscussed.Thecomparisonoftheap-proachhereproposed,withothermetaheuristics,isalsooutlined.Finally,itissuggestedtheuseofthistypeofproceduresaspartofinteractiveapproaches,recommendedtodealwithverylargesizeinstances.References

[1]Captivo,M.E.,Climaco,J.,Figueira,J.,Martins,E.,Santos,J.L.(2003),”SolvingMultipleCriteria

0-1KnapsackProblemsUsingaLabelingAlgorithm”,Computers&OperationsResearch,vol.30,pp1865-1886.

[2]Glover,F.(1999)”ScatterSearchandPathRanking”,inNewsIdeasinOptimization,D.Corne,

M.DorigoandF.Glover(eds),McGrawHill,chapter19,pp297-316.

[3]Laguna,M.,Marti,R.,(2003)”ScatterSearch-MethodologyandImplementationinC”,Kluwer

AcademicPublishers.

[4]Visee,M.,Teghem,J.,Ulungu,E.L.(1998),”TwoPhasesMethodandBranchandBoundProce-

durestoSolvetheBi-ObjectiveKnapsackProblem”,JournalofGlobalOptimization,vol.12,pp139-155.

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

CSM’03-8-Sep-01-2003,21:08

AnattributeddirectedgraphmodelofHWMEbasedonInternet

XIACUIandYAODONGLIandLIMINXIAandJIACAIZHANG

InstituteofAutomation,ChineseAcademyofSciences

Keywords:Meta-syntheticengineering;metasynthesis;thehallforworkshopofmetasynthesisengi-neering;attributeddirectedgraph;emergence;interaction;analysisoflinkstructure;complexity;WWW;systemthinking;dialogue;learningorganization;arti cialintelligence

Inthispaper,weintroduceanattributeddirectedgraphmodelofHWMEbasedoninternettosolvetheopendynamiccomplexproblems.

Earlyin1990,ChinesescientistH.S.Tsienandhiscolleaguesproposedanewscienti c eld:OpenComplexGiantSystem(OCGS)anditsmethodologyofmetasynthesis.OCGSdescribesasortofsys-temswiththecharacteristicsofopenness,hierarchy,evolution,andenormousamountofcomponents,suchassocialsystems,economicsystems,theinternetandsoon.

TosolvetheopendynamiccomplexproblemsofOCGS,themethodologyof”metasynthesis”istocombinethehuman’smindandthecomputer’scapabilitybyarti cialintelligence,systemscienceandinformationscience,toexploitallthefullyfavorableconditionsorfruitsofscienti ckingdomandconsciousthinkingofhuman.In1992,Tsienproposedatheoreticalframeworkfortheimplementationofmetasyntheticengineering,i.e.HallforWorkshopofMetasyntheticEngineering(HWME),whichconsistsofexperts,computersandknowledge.HWMEexertitselftoapplythecollectiveintelligencetosolvecomplexproblem.Moreover,Tisenpointoutthecoreoftheimplementation:oneishowtoexploitfullytheenormousinformationresources,andtheotherishowtoacquireandsynthesizetheexperienceoftheexperts.Fromthenon,Chinesescientistskeepexploringapproachesofmetasyntheticengineeringinmanydomains.TheresearchonMeta-synthesiswassupportedby”NationalHighTechnical863ProjectofChina”.Andanationalprojecttitled”Human-ComputerCooperatedHWMESupportingMacro-EconomyDecision-Making”hasbeensupportedbyNSFC.

BasedonallaboveresearcheswearedevotingourselvestoimplementingtheframeworkofHWMEwithinformationtechnologiesandnetworktechnologies,andanattributedgraphmodelforHWMEbasedoninternetisbuilt.Moredetailsareexplainedinthefollowing.

Firstly,tremendousinformationresourcesininternetareexploitedfullyinHWME.Internetisnotonlyaninformationresourcebutalsoacarrierofcollectiveintelligenceofthethousandsofmillionsofwebusers,soitcanberegardedasaspecialexpertorientingonsomecertaintopicinHWME,i.e.thecounterpartofthehumanexpert.Theauthoritativeopinionsofsomespeci ctopicinWWWacquiredbysearchengineandminingtoolsareregardedastheopinionsoftheespecialexpertinternet.Moreover,theespecialexpert-internetandthegroupofexpertsconstitutethegeneralizedgroupofexpertsinHWME.Inaddition,intranetprovidestheroomforinteractionsamongthegeneralizedexperts.

Secondly,tomakepeoplefromseeingproblembeingisolatedtoseeingthewhole,itrequiresmoreunderstanding,knowledge,preparation,andagreementthanoneperson’sexpertiseandexperiencepro-vides.Andtomakethewholebesmarterthanthesumofindividualsinadynamiccomplexenvironment,itrequiresthecreativityofthegroupofexpertsinspiredbyinteractionsfusingsystemthinking,learn-ingorganizationandtheideaofseminarinscienti cresearches.Theeffectiveinteractionsamongthegeneralizedexpertsareestablishedonthebasisof1)self-re ectiveopennessdiscussionand2)dialoguebalancinginquiryandadvocacy.Itisavailabletonurturenewandexpansivepatternsofthinking,tosetfreecollectiveaspiration,tocreateknowledgebymeansofpositivefeedback.Withtheartofhumanlan-

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

Sep-01-2003,21:08-9-CSM’03guagetechnologiestheeffectiveinteractionsaresystemimplementedintheWHMEthroughaneffectiveinteractionmodelincludingdialogueandsystemthinking.

Thirdly,theprocessofeffectiveinteractionsamongthegeneralizedexpertsleadstothenetworkstructureofinter-respondedenvironmentofHWME,whichcanbecharacterizedbyanattributeddirectedgraph.Inthegraph,eachvertexwithdiscourseattributesrepresentsadiscourseofoneexperteachtime,andeachdirectededgewithrelationattributesdescribestheresponseembeddedinthediscoursecontent.Theattributesinthegraphhaveembodiedtheexperienceandintelligenceofexpertsandmillionsofthousandsofwebusers.Andtheglobalorganization(ornetwork)ofHWMEMeta-synthesizestherationalandnon-rationalknowledgeofallparticipants,whichevolvesovertheinteractionsamongthegeneralizedexperts.

Fourthly,comparingthenetworkofHWMEtothatofWWW,thediscourseofoneexperteachtimeissimilartoaWebpage,andtheinter-responseinthecontentofdiscourseissimilartoahyper-linkageinthecontentofwebpage,moreover,thegrowthofHWMEandWWWaredrivenbytheinter-responseorhyper-linkageresultedfromhuman’sbehavior,sothereisanstructureanalogybetweenthem.WeapplytheconceptofthetoolsunderstandingandinferringWWWtounderstandHWMEandasetofalgorithmictoolsforanalyzingoflinkstructureofHWMEhasbeendeveloped.

Inaword,bymeansofAItechnologyandinformationtechnology,HWMEmakestheWWW-tremendousinformationresourceslivingforexploringthesolutionoftheopencomplexproblem,andinternetbecometheespecialexpertorientingsomecertaintopic.Fusingsystemthinkingandlearningorganizationintothecoherentbodyofinteractionsamongthegeneralizationexperts,theeffectivein-teractionsmakethewholebesmarterthanthesumofindividualexperts.TheprocessoftheeffectiveinteractionsleadstothenetworkofHWME.AndthenetworkofHWMEismodeledasanattributeddi-rectedgraph,whichMeta-synthesizestherationalandnon-rationalknowledge.SotheattributeddirectedgraphmodelofHWMEisestablished.Conclusionsaredrawnintheend.

Acknowledgment

ThisworkissupportedbyNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina(79990580).

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

CSM’03-10-Sep-01-2003,21:08

Ametasyntheticapproachfordecisionsupportsystem

RUWEIDAI

InstituteofAutomation,ChineseAcademyofSciences

JINGYUANYU

BeijingInstituteofInformationControl

JIFAGU

AcademyofMathematicsandSystemSciences,ChineseAcademyofSciences

Keywords:Metasynthesis,HallforWorkshopofMetasyntheticEngineering(HWME),decisionsupportsystem,intelligentsystem,Internet,arti cialintelligence,man-computerco-operation.

Industrializationandinformationlizationleadstothechallengeofdecisionmakingonopen,dynamicandcomplexproblems,suchasgreenhouseeffect,resourcelimitation,networksecurity,etc.Althoughresearchersandengineershavedevelopedlotsofnewdecisionsupportmethodsandparadigms,it’sstillanopenproblem.Asasummarizationofmorethantenyears’studyingoncomplexproblemsanditsmethodology,thispaperwillintroduceanewapproachforbuildingdecisionsupportsystems-HallforWorkshopofMetasyntheticEngineering(HWME),whichislikelytoenableusmeetthechallengesofdecisionmakingintheinformationera.

In1990,apaper–”ANewScienti cField–OpenComplexGiantSystemsandItsMethodology”byChinesescientistsH.S.Tsien,J.Y.YuandR.W.Daiwaspublished.Inthispaper,theyproposedtheconceptofOpenGiantComplexSystem(OCGS),andarguedthatmetasynthesisfromqualitativeopiniontoquantitativeunderstandingshouldbethemethodologyforOCGSandrelatedproblems.In1992,theywentfurther:metasynthesiswasdevelopedintoHallforWorkshopofMetasyntheticEngineering,indicatingthattheframeworkofmetasyntheticengineeringwasconstructedbyandlarge.

HWME,asdeclaredbyTsien,isanappliedtechnologyofnoetic(cognitive)science,whichisbroughtforwardthroughsuccessfullysummarizingtheachievementsof1)scienti cresearchseminars,2)C3I(abbr.of”Communication,Command,ControlandInformationsystem”)andcombatsimulationinmilitary eld,3)metasynthesisfromqualitativeopiniontoquantitativeunderstanding,4)informationandintelligencetechnologies,5)informationrevolution,6)arti cialintelligence,7)virtualreality,8)man-computerco-operatedintelligentsystemsand9)systematology(basiclevelofsystemscience).Itsessentialistouniteorganicallytheexpertgroup,data,allsortsofinformation,andthecomputertechnology,andtounitescienti ctheoryofvariousdisciplinesandhumanexperienceandknowledge.Thismakesasysteminitself.Successfulapplicationofthemethoddependsongivingfullplaytosynergeticadvantagesofthesystem.

Man-computercooperationplaysanimportantroleinHWME,whichmeanssuf cientlyapplyex-pert’sabilitiesofintuitivethinkinginimagery,thentransfertheexperiencesandfeelings(tacitknowl-edge)toheuristicknowledge,programsbymeansofmodelingtechnologyforsolvingproblemsrelatedtoOCGS.

AspracticesandapplicationsofHWMEhaveshowedthatithasagreatpotentialinsolvingcomplexdecisionproblems,HWMEcanbeenviewedasanewapproachfordecisionsupportsystem.WearenowdevotingourselvestoimplementingtheframeworkofHWMEwithinformationtechnologiesand

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

Sep-01-2003,21:08-11-CSM’03network(especiallyinternet)technologiesandtodevelopingitintoamoderndecisionsupportsystemintheinformationera.

TheproblemsolvingprocessbyHWMEisasfollows:1)Clarifytheproblemandthegoal.2)Callinrelatedexpertstodiscusstheproblem.TheinfrastructureofHWMEiscyberspace,sothattheexpertscanacquireallsortsofresources,suchasdata,information,andknowledgeandsoonconvenientlyandquickly,andcanutilizecomputerizedtools,suchasmodels,methods,dataanalysistoolsandmodelingtoolstoanalyzetheproblemonline.3)Theexperts rstfreelygivetheiropinionsontheproblem.Here,theiropinionsareoftenquantitative,andquitedifferent.Theexpertscancommunicatewitheachotherinstantlytoexchangetheirviews.4)Thediscussionwilllastuntiltheexpertgrouparrivesatconsensusesonhowtoanalyzeanddecomposetheproblem,howtodescribetheinternalstructureofit,whatdatacanbeusedandetc.Inthisstage,theexpertscanpostrelatedinformation,listsuitabledata,callsomeprede nedmodels,orbuildtheirownmodelstoprovetheiropinionsandtopersuadeothers.Theresourcesintegratedinthecyberspacecanaidtheminstudyingtheproblemfromqualitativeopiniontoquantitativeunderstanding.5)Basedontheachievementsobtainedattheabovetwosteps,asystemmodelistobebuilt.Whenbuildingthismodel,theexpertgroupshouldensurethecoherenceofthemodelandthedata.Themodelingworkisoftenperformedbycomputers.6)Oncethesystemmodelisbuiltandtheresultsarecalculatedout,theexpertsbegintoverifytheresults.Iftheresultsdon’tsatisfythem,theycanmodifyandverifythemodel,ortheycanrepeatstep2-5againandagaintore nethemodeluntiltheyaresatis ed.7)The nalmodelisdetermined,meaningthattheproblemissolved.Thewholeprocessends.

Now,underthesupportofNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina(NSFC),aprojecttitled”Man-ComputerCooperatedHWMESupportingMacro-EconomyDecision-Making”isinprogress.Thisprojectincludes4parts:1)ResearchontheprototypeofHWME.Thegoalistobuildaproto-typeofHWMEusingmodernintelligencetechnologiesandinformationtechnologies,2)Researchonmacro-economicinformationsystems,modelsystemsandtheirfunctions.Itsemphasisisputonhowtobuildthesesystemsundertheframeworkofmetasynthesis.3)ResearchonHWMEmethodssupportingmacro-economydecision-makingandsystemscience.Themaintaskistodevelopavailablemetasynthe-sismethodsformacro-economydecision-making.4)Researchoncognitiveandknowledgediscoveryindatabasestechnologiesrelatedtomacro-economydecision-making,whichmeansstudyinghowtobuilda eld-speci cknowledgediscoverysystemformetasynthesis.

Intheseresearches,integratingtheintelligenceofbothcomputersandexpertsisanimportantcon-sideration.What’smore,basedontheinternet,theintelligenceofmillionsofwebuserscanalsobeintegrated.Inourimplementing,theinternetisregardedasaspecialexpertorientingonsomecertaintopicinHWME,i.e.thecounterpartofhumanexpert.Theauthoritativeopinionsofsomespeci ctopicinWWWacquiredbysearchengineandminingtoolsaretreatedastheopinionsofthisspecialexpert.ThisspecialexpertandthehumanexpertsconstitutethegeneralizedgroupofexpertsinHWME.Oncethehumanexpertreadstheauthoritativeopinions(webpage,orprocessedtext),aninteraction(oralink)betweenthemisconstructed.Bythismanner,wehavesuccessfullyintegratedtheinternetintelligenceintoHWME.Interactionsandinformation owsinthegeneralizedexpertgrouparethekeytocomplexproblemsolvinginHWME.

MetasynthesisandHWMEhasmanysuccessfulapplications,e.g.inHandwrittenChineseCharacterRecognition(HCCR)andinthe oodcontroloperationofreservoiroftheYellowRiver.WhenappliedintoHCCR,humanintelligenceandcomputercapabilitiesarecombinedtogetherthroughsupervisedlearning.ThisHCCRsystemcontainsafewdependentweakclassi ers(i.e.theirrecognitionabilitiesareratherlimited),andoutputsoftheseclassi ersareinputtedintoanintegrationMLPnetwork.Thisintegrationnetworkistrainedbythesupervisalofhuman,thatis,whenthesystemperformsawrongrecognition,humanwilltellthesystem,andwillguideittocorrectthemistake.Bythisway,human’sexperienceislearnedandrecordedbythenetwork.Aftertraining,therecognitionabilityofthewholesystemisfarbeyondeverydependentclassi er.Astothe oodcontroloperationofreservoiroftheYellowRiver,amorecomplexman-computercooperationschemeisapplied,andtheresultisverygood,too.

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

CSM’03-12-Sep-01-2003,21:08

Tosummarize,metasynthesisandHWMEprovidesaframeworkofsynthesizingcomputerintelli-genceandhumanwisdomforproblemsolving.Itenablespeopletoanalyze,decomposeandmodelcomplexproblems,includingcomplexdecisionproblems,relatedtoOCGS.Thus,itcanbeviewedasanewapproachfordecisionsupportsystem.OurcurrentworkisimplementingtheframeworkofHEMwithinformationtechnologiesandnetworktechnologiestodevelopitintoamoderndecisionsupportsystemintheinformationera.AndaprototypeofHWMEbasedontheinternetisbuilt.ThepracticesofmetasynthesisandHWMEproveitpowerfulabilityinsolvingcomplexproblems.

Acknowledgment

ThisworkissupportedbyNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina(79990580).

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

Sep-01-2003,21:08-13-CSM’03

Themulti-runsimulationenvironmentSimEnv

MICHAELFLECHSIG

PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch

UWEBOEHM

UniversityofPotsdam,InstituteofPhysics

THOMASNOCKE

UniversityofRostock,InstituteofComputerGraphics

Keywords:simulationenvironment,scenarioanalysis,uncertaintyanalysis,legacycodemodels,exper-imentparallelization

Concept,implementationandapplicationsofasimulationenvironmentforqualityassurancemattersandscenarioanalysesaredescribed.

Modeldesign,simulationandevaluationarecornerstonesinclimateimpactandglobalchangere-search.Drawingknowledgefromexperimentingwithmodelshastotakeintoaccountuncertaintiesarisingamongothersfromincompleteknowledgeabouttherealsystem,fromthemodelstructureanditsnumericalrepresentationaswellasfromthenumericalequipmentofthemodel.Thesimulationex-perimentenvironmentSimEnv(http://www.pik-potsdam.de/topik/pikuliar/simenv/home)hasbeendesignedtosupportkeyworkingtechniquesinexperimentingwithmodelsandtohandletheabovementionedrequirements.Thisincludesawiderangeofsimulationandevaluationfacilitiesincombinationwithappropriatevisualizationtechniques.

SimEnvprovidesatoolboxorientedsimulationenvironmentthatenablesthemodellertodealwithmodelrelatedqualityassurancemattersandscenarioanalyses.Bothfocirequirecomplexsimulationexperimentsformodelinspection,validationandcontroldesignwithoutchangingamodelingeneral.

SimEnvaimsatmodelevaluationbysimulationstudieswithamodelinaco-ordinatedmannerandperformingrunensemblesinsteadofsinglesimulationruns.Co-ordinationisachievedbypre-de nedexperimenttypesrepresentingmulti-runsimulations.Accordingtothestrategyofaselectedexperimenttypetheexperimenttargets(asubsetofmodelparameters,drivers,boundaryorinitialvalues)arere-adjustednumericallybeforeeachsinglesimulationrunoftherunensemble.

AftercouplingamodeltothesimulationenvironmentaSimEnvexperimentissplitintoexperimentpreparation,experimentperformance,experimentpost-processing,andvisualization-basedexperimentevaluation.

Simulationmodelsinglobalandclimatechangeresearchoftenbaseonlegacysourcecodewritteninaprogramminglanguageratherthaninamodeldesignlanguageandproducinglargeamountofmodeloutput.TheSimEnvapproachistocouplemodelstotheenvironmentbyminimalsourcecodeadaptations(i)tomaptargetsandtheirnumericaladjustmentsfromtheenvironmentontothemodeland(ii)tostore(n-dimensional)statevariablesinproprietaryand/orgeneraloutputformatsforlaterpost-processing.Additionally,aSimEnvmodelinterfaceatcommand/scriptlevelisavailable.

Implementedexperimenttypesare:

Behaviouralanalysis(inspectionofthemodel’sbehaviourinthetargetspacewithdiscretenumericaladjustmentsanda exibleinspectionstrategy),

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

CSM’03-14-Sep-01-2003,21:08 Sensitivityanalysis(basedon nitedifferencederivativeapproximations), Monte-Carloandstochasticsimulation(perturbationsoftargetsaccordingtopre-de neddistributions),and

Simulationbasedoptimization(gradient-freemethods).

Theseexperimenttypescanbeusedandinterpretedamongothersformodelveri cationandvalida-tion,error,uncertainty,andscenarioanalysisandcontroldesign.Multi-runexperimentperformanceisimplementedforsequential,distributedandparallelhardwaretopologies.

Resultpost-processinghastoensurenavigationinthecomplexmodeloutput-experimentspace.Outputfunctionscanbedeclaredinteractivelyandcomputedfromexperimentoutputandreferencedatabyapplicationofchainsofbuilt-inoruser-de nedoperators.Operatorscoveramongothersanalytical,statistical,qualitymeasure,andselectivefunctionalityandrelateeithertothestatespaceortheexperi-mentspace.Resultevaluationisdominatedbyapplicationofpre-formedvisualizationmodules.

SimEnvmodeloutputaswellasresultpost-processingofferdatainterfacesforNetCDF,IEEEcom-pliantbinaryandASCIIformatforamoredetailedresultprocessingoutsidethesimulationenvironment.

ApplicationsofSimEnvhavebeenperformedamongotherswithEarthsystemmodelsofintermedi-atecomplexity,globalvegetationmodels,andaregionalforestmodel.

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

Sep-01-2003,21:08-15-CSM’03Policy-basedmodelingofIndonesianenergysystems:aretrospectiveand

prospectiveview

WESLEYFOELL

ResourceManagementAssociates,Madison,Wisconsin

UMARSAID

UniversityofIndonesia,Jakarta

Keywords:Indonesia,energypolicyanalysis,energysystemmodeling,capacitybuilding

Indonesia,theworld’sfourthmostpopulouscountry(220million),hasalongandcomplexhis-toryofenergydevelopment.Itisrichlyendowedwithawidediversityofenergyresources,includingpetroleum,naturalgas,coal,coal,hydropower,andgeothermalheat.Amajorproducerandexporterofhydrocarbons,includingoilandlique ednaturalgas(LNG),IndonesiaistheonlyAsianmemberofOPEC.Energyexportshavebeenoneofthemainstaysoftheeconomysincethe1960s,providingamajorportionofitsexportrevenues.

However,withitshugepopulation,morethanhalfofwhichliveatincomesoflessthanafewdollarsaday,dispersedacrosslongdistancesandthousandsofislands,Indonesiahashadamajorproblemdistributingandconsumingenergyinanef cientandequitablemanner.Duringthepastseveralyearsthisproblemhasbeenexacerbatedthroughasystemofenergysubsidiesintheformofelectricityandpetroleumproductpricessetfarbelowinternationalmarketlevels.Thesesubsidiesbreedinef ciency,bene tprimarilyupperclassconsumers(includingsmugglers),andhinderdevelopmentofalternativeenergysources.Theyalsoplaceamassiveburdenongovernmentspending,reachingmorethan20percentofthenationalbudgetin2000and2001.

Energypolicyhasalwaysbeenandremainstodayoneofthesalientandmostvisiblecornerstonesofthegovernment’sactivities.Government-ownedenergyindustries(primarilypetroleum)havehistori-callyplayedamajorroleinthecountry’sleadershipandpoliticaleconomy.Inthethirty-yearregimeofPresidentSuharto,nationalenergyplanningwas rmlyestablishedasakeyelementwithinthe ve-yearplansthatwerethebasisofpublicinvestmentfromtheearly1970sthrough1998.

Insupportofdevelopmentandimplementationoftheseplans,avarietyofanalyticaltoolsweredeveloped,primarilywithingovernmentresearchorganizationsandenergyindustries,andtoalesserdegree,atuniversities.Forthemostpart,themodelsandanalysiswerebasedupontheparadigmofa”top-downcommandandcontrolenergysector,”withkeydecisionsonenergysupplyissuesandenergyuse(e.g.,energyprices)madeattheverytopofgovernment.ThecomplexenergysystemwassteeredfromJakarta.

Large-andsmall-scalemodelswereusedtohelpthegovernmentandtheindustries:

planandmanagetheenergysectors,inparticularwithtechnologicalchoicesandinvestments; helpunderstandthemacroeconomicimpactsoftheenergypolicies,andexaminethe scalimpactsandneeds;

examineimpactsonvarioussegmentsofsocietyandindustrialsectors; evaluatenaturalresourceandenvironmentalimpacts.

Thepredominantapproachusedinpastenergysectorplanningwasgoal-orientednationaloptimiza-tionmodeling:theMARKAL(1)modelwasusedforoverallenergystrategyanalysisandtheWASP

(2)modelforelectricitysectorplanning.Thiswassometimescomplementedbymacroeconomicanalyis

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

CSM’03-16-Sep-01-2003,21:08basedonlinearinput/outputmodelingtoexamineimpactsonvarioussectorsandpopulationgroups.Morerecentlyalarge-scaleComputableGeneralEquilibrium(CGE)modelhasbeenextensivelyappliedtounderstandtheimpactsofthegovernmentprogramforenergy-subsidyreduction(3).

Thepastseveralyearshavebroughtaboutsigni cantchangesintheparadigmsforplanningandmanagementoftheIndonesianenergysystems,withsigni cantimplicationsforpolicy-basedmodelingandanalysis.Globalizationandtheworld-widemovementtowardprivatizationandregulatoryreformintheenergysectorarekeydrivingforcesbehindthesedevelopments,butalsosigni cantisIndonesia’slikelyirreversibleshiftintherelativerolesofnationalandregionalgovernment.The”decentralization”or”regionalautonomy”legislationof1999ishavingarapidandmajoreffect.Regionalgovernments(provincialanddistrict)arebeginningtoparticipateinordemandavoiceinamuchwidervarietyofenergy-relatedissues,includingmanagementand/orsharingofrevenuefromenergyresourcedevelop-ment,inputintoenergypricing,andinputsintotheestablishmentandmanagementofenergyfacilitiesintheirregions.

Anequallysigni cantdevelopmentisthemuchgreateropennessofthepolicyandplanningpro-cessinthepost-Suhartogovernments.Inthisexperiencewithgreaterdemocracy,boththemechanismsandtheimplementationofpublicinputintotheenergysectorandgovernmentappeartohavegreatlyincreasedinthepastfewyears,leadingtomorescrutinyofdataandanalysisandhowtheyareusedtoarriveatdecisionsandpolicy.UniversitiesandNGOsareplayingakeyroleinthisprocess.

Theabovedevelopmentshavesigni cantimplicationsforpolicy-basedanalysisandmodeling,inthetypesofmodels,andthesettingandthemannerinwhichtheyareused.Thecorporatizingandpotentialprivatizationandregionalizationoftheenergysectordrasticallyrede netheboundariesoftheenergysystems,thedecisionvariables,andthedomainsofthevariousdecisionmakers.Thepotentialforin-creasedneedsforregionaldataandregionalmodelsisimmenseinacountrywiththesizeanddiversityofIndonesia.Makingthismorecomplexistheincredibleregionaldiversityofmultiplehistories,cultures,beliefs,attitudes,institutions,levelofindustrialization,landuses,educationalandscienti cexperiences,governmentalexperiences,andresourceendowments.Fromthis,weperceiveaneedfordeeperinte-grationofnaturalresourceandeconomicanalysiswithconcurrentanalysisofsocialissuesassociatedwithregionalautonomyandpovertyreduction.Thismaymeanlessemphasisonthetraditionaltechnicalmodels.

ProgramsareunderwayinIndonesiatorespondtothenewandincreasedneedsforpolicy-basedenergysystemsanalysisandmodeling.Inparticular,severaluniversities,withassistanceofgovernmentandaforeigndonor,haveinitiatedaprogramtoaddressthisissue.Thefocusisbothonthetoolsandthebuildingoftheinstitutionalandhumancapacitytousetheminawaythatwillimprovebothenergysystemmanagementandgoodgovernanceingeneral.

Thispaperwilldiscusstheevolutionoftheaboveneedsforimprovedmodelingfortheenergysys-tems,someoftheanalyticalandinstitutionalwaysinwhichthisisinitiallybeingaddressed,andwhatassistancemightbeprovidedbytheinternationalcommunity.

References

[1]”Energy/EnvironmentalModelingUsingtheMARKALFamilyofModels”AlJ.Seebregts,etal.,

http://www.ecn.nl/unit_bs/etsap/reports/markal.html

[2]”IntroductiontotheWASP-IVModel,InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency,Vienna,Austria,1992.

[3]”UseoftheINDORANICGEModelinAnalysisofPricingScenariosforPetroleumProducts”,

ResearchReport,EnergyAnalysisandPolicyOf ce(EAPO),MinistryofEnergyandNaturalResources,Jakarta,2001

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

Sep-01-2003,21:08-17-CSM’03TheYaoyorozuprojectfordesigningubiquitousinformationsocietybased

ontrans-disciplinaryscienceandtechnology

MOTOHISAFUNABASHIandKOICHIHOMMAandMICHITAKAKOSAKA

SystemsDevelopmentLaboratory,Hitachi,Ltd.

Keywords:ubiquitousinformationsociety,systemstechnology,trans-disciplinaryscienceandtechnol-ogy

1.Background

OnApril72003,anewfederationof30academicsocietiesdealingwithtrans-disciplinaryscienceandtechnologywasformedinJapan.Incooperationwiththisactivity,weareconductingaprojectforde-signingubiquitousinforamtionsocietyasacasestudyoftrans-discplinaryscienceandtechnology.TheprojectisledbyHitachiwithparticipantsfrom7Japaneseresearchinstitutesanduniversities,andissupportedbySpecialCoordinationFundsforPromotingScienceandTechnologybyMinistryofEdu-cation,Culture,Sports,ScienceandTechnology,Japan.InclassicalJapanese,theword”Yaoyorozu”(literally”eightmillion”)wasusedtorefertosomethingthatwascountlessinnumber,particularlyinthephrase”YaoyorozunoKami-gami,”or”eightmilliongods.”ThebeliefwasthatgodslivednotonlyinthemanyoldtemplesthroughoutJapan,butinthetreesandthestones,intheskyandthewater,constantlysurroundingandprotectingus.Thisisthereasonwhyweuse”Yaoyorozu”insteadof”ubiquitous.”

2.Goal

DesigningUbiquitousInformationSocietyin2010CouncilofScienceandTechnologyPolicy,Cabi-netOf ce,JapanannouncedR&DpromotionstrategyforfournationalimportantareasinSeptember2001[1].ThestrategyfortheITareaassumesthefollowingscenario;

1.Internetsociety(current)-RichcontentssuchasmusicandmoviesarepervasiveintheInternet.

2.Ubiquitousnetworkingsociety(2005)-DiffusionofIPv6technologypermitsconnectivityofmyriadofequipmentsanddevicestotheInternet.

3.Nextinformationsociety(2010)-Wearablecomputersanddevicesthatspreadovertheglobeau-tonomouslycollaborateforsupportingourhuman-life.

DevelopmentoftechnologyforubiquitousnetworkingisunderwayincludingIPv6withpracticalapplicationssuchasITS(IntelligentTransportSystems)basedontheInternet[2]andhomeapplianceswithInternetconnectivity[3].Nextstepfortheubiquitousinformationsocietyisexpectedthatsmartintelligentdevices,MEMS(MicroElectroMechanicalSystems),oflessthan1-2mmcubicwithsensors,processors,andwirelessfunctionssuchasSmartDust[4]willsurroundusforprovidingbestservicesmeetingthecontext.Itisstronglyexpectedtostudyanddesignthecomingsocietyfromtheviewpointsoftechnologicalaswellassociologicalaspects.ThegoaloftheYaoyorozuProjectfocusesondesigningubiquitousinformationsocietyin2010.

Contents N. Baba, Effective utilization of soft computing techniques for the construction of the intelligent decision support Systems to deal stocks 1

CSM’03-18-Sep-01-2003,21:08

3.Issues

Co-CreationutilizingMulti-DisciplinaryKnowledgeItrequiresverybroadstudytodesigntheexpectedsocietyandtechnologiesfor2010,sothattheProjectconductsindepthstudyforthreeselectedtopics: futurelifestylebytechnologicalendeavors, socialregimeandlegalapparatusemphasizingonprivacyprotectionsaswellaseducationsfortechno-logicalendeavors,

interoperabilityoftechnologiespermittingeveryone’saccessibility.

Fortherespectivetopics,theProjecthassetupthreeteams,LSD(LifeStyleDesign),POL(PolicyandEthics),andMID(Middleware).

Collaborationofhumanity,sociological,andengineeringknowledgeisstronglyrequiredforattainingtheProjectgoal,howeverthistypeofmulti-disciplinarycollaborationhasbeenseldomrealizedsofar.Somesophisticatedmechanismshallbeintroducedforthecollaboration.M.Gibbonsetal.[5]advocatedsocalledMode2knowledgeproductionmodelthatbestutilizesITforcollaborationsamongmulti-disciplines.Fortheef cientcollaboration,Mode2claims(1)restoringinterestsinindividualorderedknowledge,(2)emphasizingondesignknowledge,and(3)modelingbasedoncomputertechnology.H.Shimizu[6]whoconductsthesocialtechnologyisproposingco-creationthroughsharingfuturevisionamongparticipants.

De nitionoftrans-disciplinaryscienceandtechnologyisnotcommonlyagreedsofar,butmodelingtechnologybasedonformalismshallbeoneoftheessentialparts.TheYaoyorozuProjectintroducesmulti-agentmodelingformutualunderstandingthatsimulatesandvisualizesrelationshipofparticipants’ideas.Inparallelwiththissimulation,mediationamongresearchersisindispensableforsharingthefuturedirectionofresearch.TheYaoyorozuProjectintroducesaspeci cteam,namedSYS(Systems),inadditiontoLSD,POL,andMIDthatdealswiththemediationandknowledgeintegrationthroughthesimulation.

4.ResearchPlan

TheProjectstartedSeptember2003andwillendMarch2005.Thecriticalpointforattainingthesuc-cessfulresearchoutputishowtointegraterelatedknowledgediversi edondifferentdisciplines.The rstyearhasbeendevotedtoobtainbasisforsharingfutureresearchgoalsamongtheparticipantsthroughtheconfrontation.Thesecondyearwillbespentforsomecasestudiestackledbyalltheteams,andthethirdyearwillbespentforthegeneralizationofthecasestudy.TheteamSYSisentirelyresponsi-blefordirectingtheproductiveknowledgeinteractionasapractitioneroftrans-disciplinaryscienceandtechnologies.

References

[1]CouncilofScienceandTechnologyPolicy,CabinetOf ce,Japan:R&DPromotionPlanforIT

Area,http://www8.cao.go.jp/cstp/(2001)(inJapanese)

[2]InternetITSProject:ProjectOverview,/en/index.

html

[3]EchonetConsortium:AboutEchonet,http://www.echonet.gr.jp/english/index.

htm

[4]B.Warneke,st,B.Liebowitz,andK.Pister:SmartDust:CommunicatingwithaCubic-

MillimeterComputer,IEEEComputerMagazine,January2001,44/51(2001)

[5]M.Gibbonsetal.:TheNewProductionofKnowledge,SagePublicationsofLondon(1994)

[6]H.Shimizu:BaandCo-Creation,NTTPress(2000)(inJapanese)

本文来源：https://www.bwwdw.com/article/sij4.html