1.Population Aging

2 Population Aging: A Human Triumph

By Joseph Chamie

Population aging is a triumph of civilization. It is the inevitable consequence of attaining desired smaller family sizes, lower mortality rates and longer lives, with many living beyond 100 years.

This achievement, however, requires vital social and economic adjustments to expected future demographic realities. In particular, population aging raises critical issues for countries, states and cities in areas such as economic growth, employment and retirement, pensions, health care and social support services.

As a population ages, the proportion of elderly (those

65 years or older) increases, and that of children (those under age 15) decreases. For much of the past, children outnumbered the elderly by a factor系数 of more than six to one.

Today, the ratio has declined to about three children per one older person. And within the next few decades, perhaps by 2060, the world’s elderly population will begin to exceed the population of children, when each group is expected to account for1 slightly less than one-fifth of the world population.

Developed countries have already moved well along this transition. In many developed countries, such as Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, Spain and the Ukraine, the elderly already outnumber children.

A notable exception is the comparatively young U.S. population, where the number of children is 50% greater than those aged 65 and older. By mid-century, projections for the European countries as a group point to nearly twice as many elderly as children, with nations such as Germany, Italy and Spain having about one-third of their populations aged 65 years or older.

Developing countries are now going through a similar aging process, but at a much faster pace. For example, whereas France took 114 years for its elderly population to increase from 7% to 14%, many developing countries that have experienced rapid fertility and mortality declines (such as Brazil, China, Indonesia, Iran and Tunisia) are passing through this transition in a span of 25 years or less.

As a consequence of such rapid changes, accommodating the necessary social and economic adjustments to older population age structures will likely be even more difficult for developing countries2.

The wide-ranging consequences of population aging are of mounting concern and significance for more developed countries — and are also increasingly a worry for less developed countries. The prospects of population aging are pressing governments at all levels to reconsider many of their existing economic and social policies, programs and benefits.

In particular, population aging raises serious questions about the financial viability of pension and healthcare systems for the elderly. With the number of workers declining relative to those in

What economic and social adjustments will

governments have to make as a result of population aging?

the retirement ages, as well as the rapidly growing numbers of longer-living retirees, many anticipate the arrival of a “red ink society. 3”

Today’s budgets for social security, pensions and health care are in the black largely as a result of the favorable age structures of the past, i.e., many workers and relatively few retirees4.

However, with changing demographics — in particular, smaller numbers of workers per retiree and increasing longevity — many fear that red ink is coming in the very near future. How to prevent the coming of a “red ink society” is a major economic and political challenge for governments.

Generally speaking, possible responses to sustaining current government pension and healthcare systems tend to fall into5 four broad areas:

First, old age benefits and healthcare coverage could be reduced. This may prove to be politically difficult, as it is considered somewhat heartless by much of the general public. A somewhat more palatable version of this approach might be to reduce benefits for the well off6. However, such an approach runs the risk of undermining currently broad public support for old-age programs.

? Second, taxes could be raised or existing funds redirected. This too is difficult and

disliked by many, including citizens, businesses and special interest groups. And perhaps more importantly, most elected officials and politicians consider raising taxes as tantamount to political suicide.

? Third, the legal retirement age could be raised. This approach appears to be less

problematic than others in the short run, as such increases in retirement ages usually come into effect7 in the distant future. While some countries, such as Germany and the United States, have already increased the statutory age of retirement by a few years, proposals for increases in other countries (e.g. France and Greece) are confronting protests, strikes and demonstrations.

? Fourth, pensions and healthcare systems for the elderly could be privatized. In traditional

pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) 8 systems found in most nations, current workers pay for the benefits of current retirees. Privatization would replace or modify PAYGO systems with private retirement accounts, in which current workers would put aside funds needed to cover their own retirement benefits9. In addition to the difficulties of moving from one system to another, public reactions to privatization, especially with the recent economic downturn, have been largely unfavorable.

?

Not surprisingly, none of these options is popular among most elected officials or the general public. More acceptable and frequently mentioned responses to population aging include increasing worker productivity and technological advances and fixes. However, these ideas may turn out simply to be wishful thinking10.

Other mentioned responses to population aging include raising below- replacement fertility levels11 and increasing the immigration of workers. Current and foreseeable efforts of most governments to raise fertility rates to replacement levels, however, seem highly unlikely, at least for the near term. Moreover, even if fertility were to rise, it would take a generation for the additional births to enter the labor force.

Increasing the immigration of workers, in contrast, would immediately impact the size of the labor force and increase the number of workers per retiree. In the longer term, however, immigrant workers age and eventually join the elderly population.

To offset those future increases among the elderly would in turn require even more immigrant workers. In brief, immigration is not a long-term solution to population aging.

In sum, while population aging is indeed an impressive achievement that has greatly improved the quality and length of human life, it will require social and economic adjustments to the expected future demographic realities12.

To be sure, many of the needed changes are likely not to be popular among the public — and will be politically difficult to implement. However, the sooner these adjustments are put in place, the easier it will be for governments, organizations, families and individuals to deal with the far-reaching and profound consequences of population aging13.

From The Globalist, July 12, 2010

I. New words

accommodate / ?'k?m?deit / v. to make fit for, or change to suit a new purpose使适应 coverage / 'k?v?rid? / n. 保险范围 demographic /?dem?'gr?fik/ adj. 人口统计学的；人口学的 demographics /dem?'gr?fiks/ n. the quantifiable statistics of a given population人口统计

资料

factor /'f?kt?/ n. a particular level on a scale of measurement系数 far-reaching /'fɑ:'ri:t?i?/ adj. having a very great influence and affecting a great

number of things 深远的；广泛的

fertility /f?'tiliti/ n. 【生物学】能育性；生育力 fix /fiks/ n. (不完善的) 应急措施; 权宜之计 implement /'implim?nt/ vt. to bring into effect实施，执行；使生效 longevity /l?n'd?ev?ti/ n. long life长寿；寿命 mortality /m?:'t?l?ti/ n. the number of people who die死亡数，死亡率 mounting /'maunti?/ adj. 逐渐增加的 offset /'?fset/ vt. compensate for or counterbalance抵消，补偿 outnumber/aut'n?mb?/ vt. to be larger in number在数量上超过 palatable /'p?l?t?bl/ adj. acceptable 可接受的 privatization /?praiv?tai'zei??n/ n. changing something from state to private ownership私有

化

projection /pr?'d?ek??n/ n. estimate of a future amount预计; 推测 ratio /'rei?i?u / n. a relationship between two things when it is expressed in

numbers比率，比例

statutory / 'st?tjut?ri / adj. relating to rules or laws 规定的; 法定的 tantamount /'t?nt?maunt/ adj. being essentially equal to something无异于, 等同于 undermine /?nd?'main/ vt. to make sth. less strong or less secure (often by a gradual

process or by repeated efforts) 破坏，渐渐破坏

viability /?vai?'bil?ti/ n. capable of being done in a practical way可行性 wide-ranging /'waid'reind?i?/ adj. 广泛的

II. Notes

1. account for: (数量、比例上)占

2. As a consequence of such rapid changes, accommodating the necessary social and economic

adjustments to older population age structures will likely be even more difficult for developing countries.这一快速变化的后果是，发展中国家在社会和经济方面进行所需的调整已应对老化的人口结构上可能更难。

3. With the number of workers declining relative to those in the retirement ages, as well as the

rapidly growing numbers of longer-living retirees, many anticipate the arrival of a “red ink society.” 劳动者的数量相对于退休人员的数量正在下降，同时长寿的退休人员数量快速增长， 许多人预料“赤字社会”会到来。[relative to—相对于；与…相比较]

4. Today’s budgets for social security, pensions and health care are in the black largely as a

result of the favorable age structures of the past, i.e., many workers and relatively few retirees.目前的社会保障金、养老金和医疗保险的预算能保持盈余很大程度上是因为过去有利的人口年龄结构，即劳动者数量多以及退休人员数量相对较少。[①social security— 社会保障金（政府定期向失业、患病、贫穷等人群发放）；② in the black—处于黑字状态; 赢利；有盈余]

5. fall into: be classified as归入，属于

6. A somewhat more palatable version of this approach might be to reduce benefits for the well

off. 这一措施更易接受的形式可能是减少富人的福利。[well off—富裕的；处境好的] 7. come into effect: 开始生效；开始实施

8. pay-as-you-go (PAYGO): 账单到期即付的；现购现付的

9. Privatization would replace or modify PAYGO systems with private retirement accounts, in

which current workers would put aside funds needed to cover their own retirement benefits. 私有化可以用私人退休账户替代或者改进现收现付制，在职劳动者为自己的退休福利储蓄资金。 [PAYGO—养老保险现收现付制是指以同一个时期正在工作的一代人的缴费来支付已经退休的一代人的养老金的保险财务模式。] 10. wishful thinking: 一厢情愿的想法；痴心妄想 11. replacement fertility level: 生育更替水平，是指同一批妇女生育女儿的数量恰好能替代她

们本身。当净人口再生产率为1.00时，恰好等于更替水平。一旦达到生育更替水平，出生和死亡将逐渐趋于均衡，在没有国际迁入与迁出的情况下，人口将最终停止增长，保持稳定状态。这个过程所需的时间依人口年龄结构的不同而不同。目前，几乎所有发达国家的生育率都已达到或低于更替水平。

12. In sum, while population aging is indeed an impressive achievement that has greatly improved

the quality and length of human life, it will require social and economic adjustments to the expected future demographic realities. 总而言之，尽管人口老龄化确实是一项重大成就，它极大地提高了生命的质量，延长了人类的寿命，但是人口老龄化也要求调整社会与经济以应对可预期的未来的人口现实。

13. However, the sooner these adjustments are put in place, the easier it will be for governments,

organizations, families and individuals to deal with the far-reaching and profound consequences of population aging. 然而，这些调整越早落实到位，政府、团体、家庭以及个人就能越容易应对人口老龄化带来的广泛而深远的影响。[put in place—落实到位；正在实施]

III. Background Information

Population ageing is a phenomenon that occurs when the median age of a country or region rises due to rising life expectancy and/or declining birth rates. There has been, initially in the more economically developed countries but also more recently in less economically developed countries, an increase in the life expectancy which causes ageing population. This is the case for every country in the world except the 18 countries designated as \UN predicts the rate of population ageing in the 21st century will exceed that of the previous century. Countries vary significantly in terms of the degree, and the pace of these changes, and the UN expects populations that began ageing later to have less time to adapt to the many implications of these changes.

Population ageing arises from two (possibly related) demographic effects: increasing longevity and declining fertility. An increase in longevity raises the average age of the population by increasing the numbers of surviving older people. A decline in fertility reduces the number of babies, and as the effect continues, the numbers of younger people in general also reduce. Of these two forces, it is declining fertility that is the largest contributor to population ageing in the world today. More specifically, it is the large decline in the overall fertility rate over the last half century that is primarily responsible for the population ageing in the world’s most developed countries. Because many developing countries are going through faster fertility transitions, they will experience even faster population ageing than the currently developed countries in the future.

The rate at which the population ages is likely to increase over the next three decades; however, few countries know whether their older populations are living the extra years of life in good or poor health.

IV. Reading Comprehension

1. Why does the author consider population aging as a victory of human civilization? 2. According to the passage, what will happen in 2060?

3. What measures can be taken to sustain current government pension and healthcare systems? 4. What is the most popular option responding to population aging?

5. What can governments do to improve the proportion between labor force and retired people within a short time?

V. Critical Thinking Questions

1. Among developed countries, U.S. has a better situation in population aging now. What do you think might be the reasons?

2. Population ageing is not only a rich-country problem. Why is birth rate declining in developing countries, even in those countries where people used to think “the more children, the better”? 3. What are the problems brought by population aging to the society, family and individuals?

VI. Critical Thinking Practice

To raise the legal retirement age is considered one way to increase the labor supply and reduce the expenditure on pensions. While some countries, such as Germany and the United States, have already increased the statutory age of retirement by a few years, proposals for increases in other countries (e.g. France and Greece) are confronting protests, strikes and demonstrations.

Debate:

Is it feasible for China to postpone the retirement age currently?

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