阿里巴巴：2010年上半年业绩低于预期,维持中性评级

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Software & Services Aug 11,2010 阿里巴巴（1688HK ）

——2010年上半年业绩低于预期，维持中性评级 Neutral Financial summary and valuation: Unchanged

200820092010E 2011E 2012E Revenue (RMB million) 3001.19 3821.70 6,071 8,243 10,046 Market Data: Aug, 10

YOY (%) 38.77 27.34 58.86 35.77 21.87 Closing Price (HKD)

15.46Net income (RMB million) 1205.19 1013.03 1,384 1,941 2,547 Price Target (HKD)

17.72YOY (%) 24.53 -15.94 36.62 40.24 31.20 Triple-C

EPS (RMB) 0.23 0.20 0.27 0.38 0.50 HSCEI 11944

Diluted EPS (RMB) 0.23 0.20 0.27 0.38 0.49 HSCCI 4035

ROE (%) 31.95 20.64 27.40 37.41 48.18 52-week High/Low (HKD)

22.50/12.50Debt/asset (%) 40.76 37.53 40.71 45.25 46.85 Market Cap (HKD million)

77，992Dividend Yield (%) 0.00 1.13 0.00 0.17 0.23 Shares Outstanding (million)

5040P/E (x) 66.59 77.17 50.10 35.60 27.05 Exchange Rate ( HKD/CNY)

1.15P/B (x) 15.64 15.61 14.01 13.56 1

2.25

EV/EBITDA (x) 63.27 65.15 49.37 45.2639.98

Price Performance Chart: Note: Diluted EPS is calculated if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares,

convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised .P/E is calculated as closing price pided by

each year’s EPS

投资亮点

Source: Bloomberg

Related Research:

"3eb5601ca300a6c30c229fd8 Limited (1688 HK)--In-line

1Q10 results. Maintain neutral rating, TP

HK$ 17.20" May 14,2010

"(1688 HK)Alibaba-Slow EPS growth,

lower margin, and high valuation,

Downgrade to Neutral, TP HK$ 17.20" Mar

17,2010

"3eb5601ca300a6c30c229fd8 (1688 HK) 3Q results

comments" Nov 11,2009 Jim Tang Equity Analyst tangmj@3eb5601ca300a6c30c229fd8 Ikon Lan Equity Analyst

lankun@3eb5601ca300a6c30c229fd8

Contact

Ashley Sheng

(8621)23297818×7274

shengzw@3eb5601ca300a6c30c229fd8

? 阿里巴巴昨天公布了其2010年上半年业绩，略低于我们的预期。公司上半年收入达到25.87亿人民币，同比增长49.0%。公司净利润达到人民币6.93亿元，同比增长39.8%。收入和利润都略低于我们25.90亿和7.30亿的预期。 ? G old Supplier 增量符合预期；中国Gold Supplier 的绝对增量超出我们的预期，但是增速下降明显。2010年二季度，Gold Supplier 增加2，345个，且中国Gold Supplier 增加了5,116个，超过我们之前3000个新增用户量的预期，但是国际Gold Supplier 减少2,771个，超过我们的预期。同时中国Gold Supplier 的同比增速下滑到同比增长50.2%。由于公司基数效应和较高的市场份额，我们认为未来用户同比增速会减缓。 ? 高毛利的增值业务很难大幅提高用户支出。虽然VAS 业务提高了公司的净利率，但是对公司收入的贡献低于我们的预期。公司二季度股权激励前的净利率从一季度的31.2%提高至32.3%，主要原因就是高毛利率的VAS 业务的贡献。但是我们发现VAS 业务对用户

提高个人支出的影响低于我们的预期。上半年VAS 业务的收入已经占中国Gold Supplier

和中国诚信通收入的25%和20%左右。但是单个中国Gold Supplier 和中国诚信通用户季

度平均收入贡献只环比增长了4.5%和3.9%，分别为人民币7,260,64元和748.81元。所

以我们认为VAS 短期内很难提高用大幅提高用户支出。

? 考虑到更高的Gold Supplier 用户和低于我们预期的单个用户收入贡献，我们略微上调

公司未来3年的盈利预测至人民币0.273,，0.384和0.504元，目标价保持在17.72元。

较高估值仍旧妨碍公司股价的表现。目前公司股价对应50.1X10年PE，我们维持对公司

的中性评级，未来6个月目标价为港币17.72。

The company or its affiliate may have equities of the listed corporation reviewed authorized by law. The company may also provide investment banking and consulting service to the listed corporation. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@3eb5601ca300a6c30c229fd8 for the relevant disclosure materials. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure in the last page.

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Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page1 Investment Highlight

? Yesterday, Alibaba released its interim report of 2010, which slightly fell short

of our expectation. Revenues of 1H10 counted RMB 2,586.8 million, increasing 49.0%

YoY. Net income of 1H10 was RMB 693.0 million, rising 39.8% YoY. Both the top line and

bottom line fell short of our expectations (revenues: RMB 2,590.2 million and net income

RMB 729.8 million). The 1H10 EPS was HKD 0.17.

? G rowth of Gold Supplier was in line with our expectation, and absolute addition

of China Gold Supplier beat our expectation. However, the growth rate for China

Gold Suppliers is slowing down. In 2Q10, total Gold Suppliers increased 2,345, which

was inline with our expectation. 5,116 China Gold Suppliers are added, which was beyond

our expectation 3,000 new additions. However, the growth rate of China Gold Suppliers

had slowed to 50.2% YoY. And Global Suppliers decreased 2,771, larger than we

expected. Owing to large base and high market share of Alibaba, we think the growth rate

of China Gold Supplier will moderate in next few quarters.

? V AS business of higher margin didn’t increase the average revenue

contributions per subscriber obviously. Though VAS business help to enlarge the net

profit margin (Pre-SBC), it still contributed less than we previously expected. 2Q10 Net

profit margin (Pre-SBC) increased to 32.3% from 31.2% in 1Q10. The major reason was

the high contribution from the VAS business which is of high margin. We’re expecting

higher margin in 2H10, regarding growing VAS business. However, we maintain

conservative on Alibaba’s VAS business. VAS business was about 25% of the revenues

from China Gold Supplier, and 20% of revenues from China Trust Pass; but the quarterly

average revenue contributions per China Gold Supplier and per China Trust Pass only

increased 4.5% and 3.9% QoQ to RMB 7,260.64 and RMB 748.81. Therefore, we think

VAS business would increase the average revenue contributions per subscriber, and the

increase would be limited 。

? R egarding higher China Gold Supplier growth and lower average revenue

contributions per subscriber, we slightly revise our 2010-2012 EPS forecast to RMB 0.273,

0.384 and 0.504. TP remains at HKD 17.72. High valuation remains our concern.

Currently, Alibaba is trading at 50.10x10EPS, very demanding for a 3-year CAGR of 35%.

Therefore, we reiterate our Neutral rating on Alibaba, with TP HKD 17.72.

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Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page1

Appendix

Table 1: Consolidated Income Statement of Alibaba

million yuan 200820092010E 2011E 2012E

Revenue 3,004,1273,874,7286,071,0938,242,79110,109,517Cost of Sales 400,651534,438877,1431,095,0431,345,672Gross Profit 2,603,4763,340,2905,193,950

7,147,748

8,763,845

Other Income 166,550113,07491,72570,18972,074Distribution expenses 1,108,1291,623,8452,511,6503,430,6384,079,464Adminstrative expenses 536,284794,0411,338,3621,722,4772,002,340EBITDA 1,079,2871,042,6241,464,1542,090,6962,829,911EBIT

959,063922,4041,343,9381,994,6342,682,041Finance Costs (239,207)(140,941)(172,295)(198,518)(236,795)Profit before tax 1,125,6131,035,4781,435,6632,064,8232,754,115Income tax expense 210,317

163,393

224,402322,393429,790Minority interests 0

6,2265,8235,122Profit for the year

1,154,503

1,013,026

1,383,555

1,940,947

2,561,120

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Jim Tang ，Ikon Lan: Equity Analyst

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