j.1467-9701.2009.01184.x

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

The World Economy

TheWorldEconomy(2010)

doi:10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01184.x

DeterminantsofExportPerformance

inEastandSoutheastAsia

JuthathipJongwanich

AsianDevelopmentBank

1.INTRODUCTION

NTERNATIONALproductfragmentation–thecross-borderdispersionofcomponentproduction/assemblywithinverticallyintegratedproductionprocesses1–hasbecomeanimportantfeatureofthestructuralinterdependenceoftheworldeconomy.Rapidadvancesinproductiontechnologyandtechnologicalinnovationsintransportationandcommunicationshaveallowedcompaniesto‘unbundle’thestagesofproductionsothatdifferenttaskscanbeperformedindifferentplaces.Also,tradeliberalisationandinvestmentpolicyreformsindevelopingcountrieshavegreatlyreducedbarrierstotradeandinvestment,therebyfurtherencouragingexpansionanddispersionofoutwarddirectinvestmentofmultinationalenterprises(MNEs).Thesedynamicshaveresultedinashiftinthecompositionofexportstowardsintermediategoods(partsandcomponents).Anumberofimplicationshaveemergedfromthegrowingimportanceoffragmentationtrade.Oneaspectisrelatedtofactorsthatin uenceexportperformanceunderthiscircumstance,particularlytheroleofrealexchangerate.Ontheonehand,JonesandKierzkowski(2001)andArndtandHuemer(2004)havearguedthatasurgeinintermediategoodstradecoulddiluterealexchangerateimpactsasintermediateexportsinvolveahighproportionofimportedpartsandcomponentsandhigh xedcostsinestablishingthe‘servicelinks’.Obstfeld

TheauthorwouldliketothankDrIfzalAli,DrFrancisJ.HarriganandDrWilliamE.Jamesforcommentsandsuggestions.Thecommentsandhelpfulcriticismsfromanonymousrefereesareacknowledged.TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorandnotnecessarilythoseoftheAsianDevelopmentBank.

Thisphenomenonhasgoneunderalternativenames,suchas‘verticalspecialisation’(Hummelsetal.,2001;Irwin,2002),‘slicingthevaluechain’(Krugman,1995),‘internationalproductionsharing’(NgandYeats,2001),‘outsourcing’(RanganandLawrence,1999;Hansonetal.,2001)and‘productfragmentation’(Jones,2000;Baldwin,2001;JonesandKierzkowski,2001;Athukorala,2005).

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓ2009BlackwellPublishingLtd,9600GarsingtonRoad,

Oxford,OX42DQ,UKand350MainStreet,Malden,MA02148,USA

1

I

20

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA21

(2002)andRauchandTrindade(2002),ontheotherhand,havearguedthattheincreasingimportanceofproductfragmentationandoftradeinpartsandcom-ponentscouldinducestrongersubstitutionresponsesasthepresenceofproductionfacilitiesindifferentcountrieswouldallow rmstorespondmorenimblytointernationalpricechangesbyshiftingactivitiesacrossborders.

Withthedebateunresolved,thispaperaimstoexaminethedeterminantsofexports,withanemphasisontheroleofrealexchangerateunderanincreasingimportanceofpartsandcomponentstrade.Toseewhetherexportsinpartsandcomponentsare‘special’andtoallowcomparisons,exportequationsareestimatedforthreedifferentexportcategories,whicharetotalmerchandiseexports,manu-facturingexports,andexportsofmachineryandtransportequipment(SITC7)largelyconsistingofpartsandcomponentsexports.TheanalysisisconductedforeighteconomiesinEastandSoutheastAsia2during1993–2008,aperiodoverwhichintermediategoodstradeburgeoned.3

Theorganisationofthepaperisasfollows.Section2providesanoverviewofchangesinthecompositionofexportsoverthepastthreedecades.Aliteraturesurveyrelatingtotheroleofrealexchangerateindeterminingfragmentationtradeisalsoprovidedinthissection.Theempiricalmodel,variablemeasurementandeconometricprocedurearepresentedinSection3.Section4presentsanddiscussestheregressionresults.The nalsectionsummariseskeyinferences.

2.EXPORTCOMPOSITIONINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA

Duringthepastthreedecades,manufacturingexportsfromEastandSoutheastAsianeconomieshaveexpandedrapidlyandgainedinrelativeimportanceintotalmerchandiseexports(Figure1).4InKoreaandTaipei,China,theproportionofmanufacturingtototalexportshasbeenpersistentlyhigh,ataround90percentoverthepastthreedecades.OtherthanforIndonesia,theshareofmanufacturingexportshasexceeded80percentduringthepost-crisisperiod.Thesharehassigni cantlyincreasedinthePhilippines,from50percentduring1991–95tomorethan90percentduring1996–2006,whileithasclimbedgraduallyinthe

TheeighteconomiesinEastandSoutheastAsiaarethePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC);Indonesia;RepublicofKorea(henceforthKorea);Malaysia;Philippines;Singapore;Taipei,China;andThailand.3

ThoughexportsarenowgrowingquicklyinsomeSouthAsiancountries,ithasnotyetlatchedontointernationalproductionnetworkstothesamedegreeasEastandSoutheastAsia.Besides,comparabledatadonotexistforSouthAsiancountries.4

Theevolutionofexportpatternsintheregioncanbetracedusingdetailedtradedata,speci callytheUnitedNationsCommodityStatisticsDatabase(UNCOMTRADE),basedonRevision3oftheStandardInternationalTradeClassi cation(SITC,Rev.3),andStatisticsCanada,WorldTradeAnalyserforTaipei,China.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

2

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

22JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

othereconomies.InIndonesia,manufacturinggoodscontributedonlyaround50percentofthecountry’stotalmerchandiseexports,increasingfrom10percentatthebeginningofthe1980s.

Figure2providesabreakdownfortheeighteconomiesoftheanatomyofexportswithinmanufacturing.5Itshowsthatexportsofmachineryandtransportequipment(SITC7)haveexpandedrapidly,dwar ngthetraditionalmanufactur-ingduoofclothingandfootwear(SITC8).Indonesiaistheonlyexceptiontothisgeneralpattern.ForthePRC,exportsinSITC7begantotakeoffintheearly1990s,re ectingthedominantroleofoutsourcingactivityinthemanufacturingsector.In2006,theshareofSITC7intotalmerchandiseexportsinthiscountryincreasedtoalmost50percent.ForSITC8,itroseduring1984–93buthasdeclinedconstantlytolessthan40percentsincethelate1990s.

ThetrendsofSITC7exportsforKoreaandTaipei,China,aresimilar.Bothtookoffinthemid-1980s,becomingthemostsigni cantcontributortoman-ufacturingandtotalexportsbytheearly1990s.Untilthen,textiles,clothingandfootwearinSITC8playedanimportantrole.By2006,SITC7exportsaccountedforalmost60percentoftotalexportsinKoreaandabout50percentinTaipei,China.SITC7exportshavealsogrowninMalaysia,Philippines,Singapore

and

5

DisaggregateddataonmanufacturesforthePRCwereunavailablebefore1984andthedataseriesforTaipei,China,beginsin1975.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA

23

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

24JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

TABLE1

ShareofPartsandComponentsinTotalManufacturingExports

Exports1990–2006

2000–0613.912.527.542.560.346.539.926.3

China,People’sRepublicofIndonesia

Korea,RepublicofMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeTaipei,ChinaThailand5.74.021.838.230.431.024.518.9

Sources:UnitedNationsComtradedatabase,DESA/UNSD;Athukorala(2005)forTaipei,China.

Thailand.By2006,theshareintotalexportshadclimbedtoalmost75percentinthePhilippineswhileitwasaround50–60percentintheotherthreecountries,re ectingtheirbroaderexportbaseanddeeperindustrialstructurethanthePhilippines.

TheevolutionofIndonesia’sexportstructureisdifferentfromthebroaddrifttowardSITC7thathasoccurredinothercountries.Resource-basedmanufacturing,mostlymineralproducts(SITC6)andmiscellaneousmanufacturing(SITC8),predominantlywearingapparelandfootwear,haveaccountedforalmosttwo-thirdsofthecountry’smanufacturedexports.By2006,SITC6exportscontributedalmost20percentoftotalmerchandiseexports,whileSITC8contributedabout12percent,asimilarcontributiontoSITC7.

ThegrowingimportanceofSITC7inmanufacturingexportsintheseeconomiesre ectsanimportantfeatureofinternationalproductfragmentation.Thisfeatureleadstothesigni cantincreaseofexportsinpartsandcomponentsinSITC7.Table1showstheproportionofpartsandcomponentsintotalmanufacturingexportsduring1990–96and2000–06.6,7Malaysia,Philippines,SingaporeandThailandstandoutinEastandSoutheastAsiafortheirheavydependenceonpartsandcomponentsforexportdynamism.Theshareofpartsandcomponentsintotalmanufacturingexportshasincreasedrapidlyinthesefourcountries,

Thelistcontains168categoriesofpartsandcomponentsatthe ve-digitlevel.NotethatthedataontheSITC7 ve-digitindustriesofTaipei,China,arebasedonAthukorala(2005).7

Notethattheshareofpartsandcomponentsintotalmanufacturingimportsalsoexhibitsanupwardtrendintheregion,againwiththeexceptionofIndonesia.Manufacturingproductionreliesheavilyonimportedinputs.TheimportshareofpartsandcomponentshasmorethandoubledinthePRCandthePhilippines.InthePRC,theshareofpartsandcomponentsimportshasexpandedmorequicklythanitsshareinexports,suggestinganimportantroleforassemblyactivities.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

6

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA25

reachingover40percentinMalaysia,PhilippinesandSingaporeandabout30percentinThailandduring2000–06.Betweenthesetwoperiods,theshareofcomponentsintotalmanufacturingexportsmorethandoubledinthePRC,from6percentto14percent.InKoreaandTaipei,China,therelativeimportanceofcomponentsintotalmanufacturingexportshasincreasedovertheyear,con-tradictingthepopularbeliefthattheseeconomieshadshiftedpalpablyfromassemblyactivitiesto nalgoodsproduction.

EventhoughtheshareofpartsandcomponentsinIndonesiaroseconsiderablyduringthesameperiod,itwasbecauseoftheirinitiallowexportbase.Infact,theirdollarvalueremainedlowrelativetothoseofothereconomiesintheregion:in2005,forexample,thedollarvalueofpartsandcomponentsexportsfromIndonesiawasaboutaquarterthatofThailand.ThesmallweightofpartsandcomponentsandSITC7inIndonesianmanufacturingexportsindicatesthatthecountryhasbeenslowerthanotherstointegrateincross-borderproductionnetworks.Notethatthegrowingimportanceofinternationalproductfragmentationintheseeighteconomieshasbeenassociatedwiththediversi cationofexportdestinations.Inparticular,thePRChasbecomeoneofthemajorexportdestinationsforalleconomiesinthisregion,particularlyforSITC7exports(Jongwanich,2007).InKorea,Malaysia,Philippines,SingaporeandThailand,exportvaluetothePRCasashareoftotalexportsincreasedalmost vetimesduringthisperiod,attheexpenseoftheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion(EU).ItwasonlyforthePRCthattheUnitedStatesandEUhavebeenincreasinglyimportantoverthepast15years.TheUSandEUmarketsaccountedfor21percentand16percent,respectively,ofthePRC’stotalexportmarketduring2000–05,increasingfrom16percentand11percentin1990–95.Insigni cantmeasure,theexpan-sionofintra-regionaltradere ectsthePRC’sroleasanassemblypointanditsgreaterrelianceondemandfromoutsidetheregion,theUnitedStatesandEUinparticular.ThroughitsforwardlinkagestothePRC,therestoftheregionalsoremainsdependentonexternalsourcesof naldemand.

Theincreasingimportanceofpartsandcomponentstradecouldhaveanimplicationonfactorsaffectingexportperformance,particularlytheroleofrealexchangerate.JonesandKierzkowski(2001)andArndtandHuemer(2004)havepointedoutthatasurgeinintermediatetradewouldunderminetheimportanceofrealexchangerateinaffectingexportperformance.Ifexportsaremadewithimportedcomponents,thenadepreciation(revaluation)ofitscurrencylowers(raises)theforeigncurrencypriceofitsexportsbutitalsoincreases(reduces)thehomecurrencypricesofitscomponentimports.Thelatter’seffectontheforeigncurrencypriceofitsexportsrunscountertotheeffectofthedepreciation(appreciation),reducingtheoveralleffectandthussensitivityofexportstorealexchangeratechanges.

Inaddition,theinternationalproductfragmentationhasbeeninvolvedwiththeestablishmentof‘servicelinks’tocombinevariousfragmentsoftheproduction

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

26JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

processinatimelyandcost-ef cientmanner.Thus,thelocationaldecisionsofMNEsoperatinginassemblyactivitiesarestronglyin uencedbythepresenceofotherkeyvariablessuchasadequateinfrastructure,excellentlogisticcapability,availabilityofworld-classoperator,andtechnicalandmanagerialskills(BarryandBradley,1997;RuaneandGorg,2001).Also,thereisageneraltendencyforMNEaf liatestobecomeincreasinglyembeddedinhostcountriesthelongertheyarepresentthereandthemoreconducivetheoverallinvestmentclimateofthehostcountrybecomesovertime.Theymayrespondsluggishlytorelativecostchangesoncetheyhaveinvestedsubstantialresourcesindomesticproductionfacilitiesandinestablishinginformationlinks.

However,Obstfeld(2002)andRauchandTrindade(2002)havearguedthattheincreasingimportanceofproductfragmentationandoftradeinpartsandcomponentswouldinduce rmstorespondmorestronglytochangeinrelativepricesbyswitchingbetweendomesticandimportedinputs,orbyshiftingtasksacrossborders.Thiscouldhappenbecausethepresenceofproductionfacilitiesindifferentcountriesenhancestheinternational owofinformationwithinthe rm,allowingittorespondmorenimblytointernationalpricechangesbyshiftingactivitiesacrossborders.

Empiricalevidencerelatingtodeterminantsofexportsunderfragmentationtradeisstilllimited.ArndtandHuemer(2004)examinetheeffectofcross-borderproductionsharingbetweentheUnitedStatesandMexicoonthesensitivityoftradeto(real)exchangerateduringtheperiod1989–2002.Thereduced-formexportequationisemployed.Exportsaredisaggregatedintoexportsofmanufac-tures,exportsofnon-manufacturersandexportsofmotorvehiclepartsandcomponents.Theroleofrealexchangerateonexportswasnotfoundinmotorvehiclepartsexports,whichwasheavilyinvolvedwiththeproductionnetworkandverticalspecialisationsothattheroleofrealexchangeratebecomesinsigni cant.Athukorala(2004)investigatestheroleofexchangerateonexportperformancebyusingThailandasacasestudyduringtheperiod1995–2003.Asimilarformoftheexportfunctionisapplied,i.e.exportvolumeisafunctionofrealexchangerate,worlddemandandcapacityutilisation,fortotalmanufacturedexportsandthefoursub-categoriestherein:chemical(SITC5),basic(resource-based)manufacturing(SITC6),machineryandtransportequipment(SITC7),andmiscellaneousexports(SITC8).Theresultspointtosigni cantdifferencesinthedegreeofelasticityacrossthefourcategoriesandtherealexchangerateelasticityislowestformachineryandtransportequipment.

Chinn(2005)estimatesexportfunctionintheUnitedStatesunderverticalspecialisationduring1967Q1–2007Q1.Exportsofgoods,excludingagricultureandbothagricultureandcapitalgoods,areestimatedasafunctionofdomesticeconomicactivity,measuredbyUSGDPin2000chain-weighteddollars,realexchangerate,investmentequipmentandforeigneconomicactivity,measuredbyrealrest-of-worldGDPweightedbyUSexportstomajortradingpartners.Incontrast

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA27

toArndtandHuemer(2004)andAthukorala(2004),exportsbecomemoresensitivetochangesinrealexchangerateunderverticalspecialisation,whileincomewouldbecomelessimportant,supportinganargumentthatproductfragmentationwouldinduce rmstorespondmorestronglytochangeinrelativepricesbyswitchingbetweendomesticandimportedinputs,orbyshiftingtasksacrossborders.

3.EMPIRICALMODEL,VARIABLEMEASUREMENTAND

ECONOMETRICPROCEDURE

Toexaminethedeterminantsofexports,thefollowing‘reduced-form’exportequationsareperformedfortotalmerchandise,totalmanufacturingandSITC7exports:

ð1Þ

whereXiistheexportvolumeincategoryi,includingtotal(TE),manufacturing(ME)andSITC7(SITC7),RERistherealeffectiveexchangerate,WDistherealincomeinimportingcountries,PCisthedomesticproductioncapacityinthetradablesectorandFDIisthein owsofforeigndirectinvestment.8NotethatfortheSITC7exportequation,thecross-effectsbetweenthedifferentcategoriesofexports(OTH)arecapturedbyincludingexportsinothermanufacturingcategories(SITC5,6and8).

Ideally,weshouldhaveworkedwithafullyspeci edexportmodel,whichcapturesdemand-andsupply-sidein uencesseparately,whileappropriatelyallowingthepossibilityofsimultaneousintegrationinvolvedinthedeterminationofquantityandprices.Unfortunately,high-frequencydataarenotavailableforthispurpose.However,thesimultaneityissueisnotabindingconstraintbecausetheeconometricprocedurethatisappliedinthisstudy,i.e.general-to-speci cmodelling(GSM),wouldpermitustotestforthecointegration(long-termrela-tionship).9Iftheparticularvectorofrelatedvariablesisputtogetheronthebasisofsoundeconometricreasoning,thecointegrationrelationshipamongthemcanbeinterpretedasthe(long-run)equilibriumrelationship.

Theabovemodelwasestimatedusingquarterlydata.Accordingtotheavailabilityofexportdata,theperiodofcoveragefortheexportequationsvariesfromcountrytocountry.Table2summarisestheperiodofcoverageforestimatingthe

Notethatthereduced-formexportequationiswidelyperformedinthisresearcharea.See,forexample,GoldsteinandKhan(1985),Busheetal.(1986),ArndtandHuemer(2004),Athukorala(2004)andChinn(2003,2005).9

Boundtestcouldbeappliedtotestfortheirequilibrium(long-run)relationship(i.e.cointegra-tion);seePesaranetal.(2001).

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

8

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

28JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

TABLE2

PeriodofCoverageforEconometricAnalysisoftheExportFunctions

CountryPRC

IndonesiaKoreaMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeTaipei,ChinaThailand

PeriodCoverage1996–2008Q11994–2007Q41993–2007Q41994–2007Q41994–2007Q41993–2007Q41995–2008Q11995–2007Q4

exportequationsineightEastandSoutheastAsianeconomies.Exportvolumefortotalandsub-categoriesisderivedfromadjustingexportvaluesbyappropriateexportpriceindices.Theexportvaluehererefersonlytodomesticexports,i.e.excludingre-exports.

Therealexchangerate(RER)ismeasuredastheratiooftheexport-weightedproducerpriceindexoftradingpartnercountriesexpressedindomesticcurrencyrelativetothedomesticproducerpriceindex.Exportshareisusedonthebasisofthesuperiorityinrepresentingthecountry’scompetitivenessthanotherpossibleweightssuchastotaltradeshareorimportshares(Warr,1986).Notethattwoalternativerealexchangeratemeasures,whichare(1)theexport-weightedproducerpriceindexoftradingpartnercountriesexpressedindomesticcurrencyrelativetothedomesticconsumerpriceindexand(2)theconsumerpriceindexoftradingpartnercountriestothedomesticconsumerpriceindex,areconductedbuttheestimationoutcomeofthesetwoalternativerealexchangeratemeasuresyieldedvirtuallyidenticalresultssothatonlytheestimatesusingtheforeignanddomesticproducerpriceindicesarereportedhere.

Worlddemand(WD)ismeasuredastheweightedaverageoftherealincomesofkeyexportpartners,whichtogetheraccountfor75percentofshipmentsofEastandSoutheastAsiatoalltradepartners.Theproductioncapacityoftotalexports,totalmanufacturingandSITC7isproxiedbythetrendoftheirrealoutputusingtheHodrick–Prescott ltermethod.Othermethods,suchasexponentialsmoothingandtheKalman lter,providevirtuallyidenticalresultsbuttheHodrick–Prescott lterisselectedasithasthebestperformanceintermsofdiagnostictestindeterminingprivateexportequations.

Dataseriesofexportvalue(totalandsub-categories),exportprices,consumerpriceindex,producerpriceindex,realGDPandnetforeigndirectinvestmentin ows(FDI)werecompiledfromCEICDataCompanyLtd.NominalexchangerateswerecompiledfromInternationalFinancialStatistics(CD-ROM),Inter-nationalMonetaryFundandCEICDataCompanyLtd.Alldataseriesareusedinnaturallogarithmsinregressionestimation.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA29

Inlinewiththestandardpracticeintimeserieseconometrics,thetimeseriespropertyofdatawastestedattheoutsetusingtheaugmentedDickey–Fuller(ADF)test.Accordingtothetestresults,thevariablesunderconsiderationdonothavethesameorderofintegrationineachcountry.Forexample,inthePRC,therealexchangerateisstationary(I(0))whileothervariablesarenon-stationary(I(1));inThailand,totalexports,exportsinSITC7,realexchangerateandgeneratedproductioncapacityarestationarywhileothersarenon-stationary.

Underthedifferentorderofintegration,thefashionablecointegrationeconometricprocedures,suchasthetwo-stepresidual-basedprocedureadoptedbyEngleandGranger(1987),andthesystem-basedreducedrankregressionapproachofJohansen(1988,1991)formodellingnon-stationarydataareinap-propriate.TheeconometricanalysisinthisstudyisbasedontheGSMprocedure(Hendryetal.,1984;WickensandBreusch,1988;Hendry,1995;Pesaranetal.,2001).TheGSMprocedureisapplicablewhenasetofvariablesincludesaseriesthatisnon-stationaryoramixtureofnon-stationaryandstationary.Inthecaseofa nitesampleandnon-stationarydataseries,thisproceduretendstoprovideamorepreciseestimatethantheJohansenprocedure.Inparticular,theJohansenproceduretendstodeterioratesigni cantlyinsmallsamples,generatingestimateswith‘fattails’(frequentoutliers)andsometimessubstantialmeanbias(Hargreaves,1994).TheGSMcanbewrittenintermsofshort-runandlong-run(cointegration)relationshipsasinequation

(2):

ð2Þ

whereaisaconstant,Ytistheendogenousvariable,

Xj,tisthejthexplanatoryvariableandAiandBijaretheparameters.

andthelong-runthe1

isgivenbyC0C1.

Equation(2)istheparticularformulationgenerallyusedasthe‘maintainedhypothesis’ofthespeci cationsearch.Theestimationprocedureinvolves rstestimatingtheunrestrictedequation(2),andthenprogressivelysimplifyingitbyrestrictingstatisticallyinsigni cantcoef cientstozeroandreformulatingthelagpatternswhereappropriateintermsoflevelsanddifferencestoachieveorthogonality.Aspartofthespeci cationsearch,itisnecessarytocheckrigorouslyateverystageeventhemoregeneralofmodelsforpossiblemisspeci cation.Suchcheckswillinvolvebothavisualexaminationoftheresidualfromthe ttedversionofthemodelandtheuseoftestsforserialcorrelation,heteroscedasticityandnormalityintheresidual,andtheappropriatenessoftheparticularfunctionalformused.Inparticular,anysuggestionofautocorrelationintheresidualshouldleadtoarethinkabouttheformofthegeneralmodel.Aboveall,theoreticalconsistencymustbeborneinmindthroughoutthetesting-downprocedure.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

30JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

4.RESULTS

The nalparsimoniousestimatesoftheexportmodel,togetherwithasetofcommonlyuseddiagnosticstatistics,andlong-runelasticitiescomputedfromthesteady-statesolutionstotheestimatedequationsarereportedintheAppendix.Theestimatedexportequationsarestatisticallysigni cantatthe1percentlevelintermsofthestandardF-testanditperformswellintermsofstandarddiagnostictestsforserialcorrelation(LM),normality(JBN),heteroscedasticity(ARCH),andwhitenessoftheregressionresiduals.TheWu–Hausmantestsuggestsnoevidenceofsimultaneityforanyofthesevariables.Whileallvariables,exceptforFDI,aremeasuredinnaturallogarithms,theregressioncoef cientscanbeinterpretedaselasticities.Table3providesthesummaryresultsofRERcoef cientsintheeightEastandSoutheastAsiancountries.

Ingeneral,thelong-runrealexchangeratecoef cientsofmachineryandtransportequipment(SITC7)exportsarethelowest(orinsigni cant)whilethecoef cientsoftotalmerchandiseexportsarethehighest,withthoseofmanufac-turingexportscominginbetween.Theseresultsseemtosuggestthatexportsofmanufactured nalproducts,especiallylabour-intensiveproducts,aremoreresponsivetochangesinRERthanareexportsofSITC7products,whichhavetorelytoagreaterextentonimportedpartsandcomponents.Inthecaseoftotalexports,primaryproductshaveasigni cantweight,andprimaryproductsbynaturerelyheavilyonlocalrawmaterialscomparedwithmanufacturingproducts.Hence,theimpactofRERchangesismostprominentintotalexportcategories.Takentogether,theseresultsareconsistentwiththehypothesisthatexpandingproductfragmentationandintermediategoodstradeweakensthein uenceofRERonexportperformance.ThisresultisalsofoundinAthukorala(2004)whoinvestigatestheroleoftherealexchangerateinThailand’sexportperformanceover1995–2003,andArndtandHuemer(2004)whoexaminetheeffectofcross-borderproductionsharingbetweentheUnitedStatesandMexicoduring1989–2002.

RERcoef cientsvaryacrosstheeighteconomies.Ingeneral,RERhastheleastimpactonthePhilippines’exportswhiletheimpactisthegreatestinIndonesia.InthePhilippines,thelong-runcoef cientsofRERinallthreecategoriesarestatisticallyinsigni cantwhileintheshortrun,thecoef cientsareequalto0.2fortotalmerchandiseexports.InthecaseofIndonesia,bycontrast,theyaregreaterthan1intotalmerchandiseandmanufacturingexports(bothintheshortandlongrun)andlessthan1inSITC7exports,i.e.0.72intheshortrunand0.97inthelongrun.ThisisconsistentwiththefactthatexportsandimportsinthePhilippineshavebeendominatedbypartsandcomponentsoverthepastdecade(seeSection2).Incontrast,Indonesiahasmuchgreaterproductdiversi cationinitsexportbasket.Inaddition,IndonesiatodatehasbeenslowinjoininginternationalproductionnetworksofMNEsintheSITC7category.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

TABLE3TheRERCoef cientsinEightEastandSoutheastAsianCountries

Long-runCoef cient

Manufacturing

(ME)

0.69*1.44**0.65*––0.89()2)***0.18*0.33()3)***0.61*0.72*0.48*––0.53()2)**0.14*–0.50**4.52*1.48*–1.17*–0.70*–0.50**2.15*1.37*–0.14***–0.39***–(SITC7)(ME)SITC7TotalMerchandise(TE)ManufacturingSITC7

(SITC7)

–0.97*1.06*–––––

Short-runCoef cient

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

TotalMerchandise(TE)

PRCIndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippinesKoreaSingaporeThailandTaipei,China0.60*1.17*0.64*0.20**1.12*–0.34*0.38()3)**

Notes:Thevaluesintheparenthesesshowthelagperiodofthesigni cance.*Signi cantatthe5percentlevel;**Signi cantatthe10percentlevel;***Signi cantatthe15percentlevel.

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA

Source:Authorestimates.

31

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

32JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

TherelianceonprimaryandtraditionalmanufacturedexportspossiblymakesIndonesianexportsmoresensitivetoRER.

Thecoef cientonmanufacturingexportvolumewithrespecttochangesinRERinKorea,SingaporeandTaipei,China,areallrelativelylowinboththeshortandlongrun.Inthelongrun,RERcoef cientcorrespondingtoSITC7intheseeconomiesisstatisticallyinsigni cant.Intheshortrun,itisstatisticallyinsigni cantinthecaseofKoreaandTaipei,China,whileitisaround0.5inSingapore,butitseffectwouldtakethelagoftwoquarters.Inadditiontothehighdegreetowhichpartsandcomponentsarerepresentedintheexportbasket,RERcoef cientswillalsobein uencedbythetechnologicalsophisticationandcomplexityofexports.Moreadvancedandsophisticatedproductsmayofferfeweropportunitiesforsubstitution,resultinginthelowerresponseofexportstochangeinRER.

InMalaysiaandThailand,thelong-runRERcoef cientsoftotalexportsarecomparativelyhigh.Thismayre ectamorediversi edexportstructure.Despiteexhibitingadecliningtrend,theshareofnon-manufacturingproductsinbotheconomiesin2000–05stillamountstomorethan20percentoftotalexports,comparedtolessthan10percentintheothereconomies,exceptIndonesia.ThepatternoftheRERcoef cientsintheshortruninthesecountriesprovidesastrikingresemblancetotheirlong-runRERcoef cients,butwithlowermagnitudes.Notethatthehighcoef cientcorrespondingtototalmerchandiseexportsinKorea,butrelativelylowvalueofcoef cientcorrespondingtomanufacturingexports,re ectthatprimaryproductstendtorespondnoticeablytochangesinrelativeprices.WorlddemandisimportantindeterminingexportperformanceintheseeightEastandSoutheastAsiancountries.Inparticular,intheshortrun,itisstatistic-allysigni cantatthe1percentlevelinallcountries.Inthelongrun,itbecomesstatisticallysigni cantonlyinthePRC,KoreaandThailand.Inthesecountries,theresponsivenessofexportstoexternaldemandisthehighestforSITC7whileitisthelowestfortotalexports,withmanufacturingexportscominginbetween.Thestatisticalinsigni canceofworlddemandcorrespondingtoSITC7inthePRCinthelongruncouldbebecausethePRC’sownexportsarelargelyin nalassembledgoods,especiallylabour-intensivemanufacturedproductssuchasclothingandfootwear10sothatchangesintradingpartners’demandtendtoaffectthePRC’s nalassemblyexportsmorethanitspartsandcomponentsexports.However,these ndingsaddweighttotheobservationthatnewemergingpatternsofintra-regionaltradedonotnecessarilyindicateaweakeningofinte-grationwithexternalmarketsoutsidedevelopingAsia.

10

Inaddition,thePRC’slabour-intensivemanufacturedproducts gureprominentlyintheworldmarket.ClothingandfootwearfromthePRCaccountedformorethan20percentand25percent,respectively,ofglobalexports,during2000–05,comparedwithlessthan5percentfortheothereconomiesintheregion.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA33

Productioncapacityisanothercrucialfactorinaffectingexportperformanceoftheseeightcountries.Inparticular,long-runestimatesofproductioncapacityarenotonlystatisticallysigni cantbutlargeinabsolutevalue.Thistendstoimplythatsupply-sidefactors,suchasinfrastructure,logisticscapabilities,skillsandthegeneralbusinessclimate,arelikelytobeimportantindeterminingexportperformance.Inadditiontoproductioncapacity,FDIbecomesstatisticallysigni cantindeterminingexportperformanceinallcategories.Thecoef cienttendstobehigherinacaseofmanufacturingexports.TheimportanceofFDIindeterminingexportperformance,evenusingaggregatedata,tendstosupportthehypothesisthatmultinationalcorporations(MNCs)arelikelytobeinabetterpositiontoovercome xedcostsinducedbyexportsandhaveahigherchancetosuccessfullyexport.Inaddition,MNCpresencecouldindirectlypromotelocallynon-af liated rmstoexport,i.e.exportspilloversthroughinformationexternalities,demonstration,andimitationandcompetition(Aitkenetal.,1997;Greenawayetal.,2004).

5.CONCLUSION

ThispaperexaminesdeterminantsofexportsineightEastandSoutheastAsianeconomies,withanemphasisontheincreasinglyimportantroleofpartsandcomponentsexports.Theexportequationsareestimatedforthreedifferentexportcategories–totalmerchandiseexports,manufacturingexports,andexportsofmachineryandtransportequipment(SITC7)–during1993–2008.Thefunctionalformofexportsisbasedonthe‘imperfectsubstitution’modelinwhichexportvolumeisdeterminedasafunctionofrealexchangerate,worlddemand,produc-tioncapacityandforeigndirectinvestment.ForSITC7exports,thecross-effectsbetweenthedifferentcategoriesofexportsarecapturedbyincludingexportsinothermanufacturingcategories(SITC5,6and8).

Thekey ndingssuggestthatrapiddiversi cationofexportsawayfromtraditionalproductsandtowardsassembly/componentspecialisationwithinglobalindustrieshavetendedtoweakenthelinkbetweentherealexchangerateandexportperformance.Worlddemand,FDIandproductioncapacityhaveincreasedinimportanceindeterminingexports.Thestatisticalsigni canceoftheworlddemandvariableunderthisformofinternationalspecialisationaddsweighttotheobservationthatexternalmarketsoutsidedevelopingAsiaarestillimportant.WhilethePRCbecomesanimportantexportdestinationofAsianeconomies,thePRC’sexportshavestillreliedmoreondemandfromoutsidetheregion,particularlyfromtheUSandEUmarkets.Thiscon rmsthateventhoughfragmentationtradehasplayedapivotalroleindeepeningintra-regionaleconomicinterdependence,thishasbeensustainedbycontinuingstrongexternalrelianceon nalgoodsdemand.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

34JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

TheimportanceoftheproductioncapacityvariableandFDI,particularlyinthelongrun,indicatesthattomaintainacountry’scompetitiveness,itspolicyemphasisshouldbeshiftedtowardsstrengtheningsupply-sidefactors.Theseincludetheimportanceofimprovementsinbusinessinvestmentclimatesthroughincreasedlegalcertaintyandstrengthenedgovernancetoenforcecontracts,toprotectintellectualproperty,andtoensurethatproductstandardsaremet.

APPENDIX:FULLREGRESSIONRESULTS

1.ThePeople’sRepublicofChinaTotalMerchandiseExports

Adj-R2¼0.92;S.E.ofregression¼0.04;LM(1)¼0.24(p¼0.63);LM(2)¼0.40(p¼0.67);ARCH¼0.41(p¼0.53);J-B¼0.30(p¼0.86)ManufacturingExports

Adj-R2¼0.92;S.E.ofregression¼0.04;LM(1)¼0.84(p¼0.36);LM(2)¼0.29(p¼0.75);ARCH¼0.007(p¼0.93);J-B¼0.72(p¼0.70)SITC7

Adj-R2¼0.92;S.E.ofregression¼0.04;LM(1)¼0.84(p¼0.36);LM(2)¼0.28(p¼0.75);ARCH¼0.79(p¼0.38);J-B¼0.19(p¼0.91)

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA2.Indonesia

TotalMerchandiseExports

35

Adj-R2¼0.87;S.E.ofregression¼0.05;LM(1)¼1.53(p¼0.22);LM(2)¼1.82(p¼0.17);ARCH¼1.43(p¼0.24);J-B¼0.74(p¼0.69)ManufacturingExports

Adj-R2¼0.92;S.E.ofregression¼0.06;LM(1)¼1.18(p¼0.28);LM(2)¼0.61(p¼0.55);ARCH¼0.28(p¼0.60);J-B¼0.49(p¼0.78)SITC7

Adj-R2¼0.87;S.E.ofregression¼0.09;LM(1)¼0.87(p¼0.36);LM(2)¼0.75(p¼0.48);ARCH¼1.88(p¼0.18);J-B¼0.01(p¼0.99)3.RepublicofKoreaTotalMerchandiseExports

Adj-R2¼0.83;S.E.ofregression¼0.05;LM(1)¼2.29(p¼0.14);LM(2)¼1.20(p¼0.31);ARCH¼0.01(p¼0.92);J-B¼1.40(p¼0.49)

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

36JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

ManufacturingExports

Adj-R2¼0.85;S.E.ofregression¼0.04;LM(1)¼0.77(p¼0.39);LM(2)¼1.33(p¼0.27);ARCH¼1.31(p¼0.26);J-B¼0.58(p¼0.75)SITC7

Adj-R2¼0.77;S.E.ofregression¼0.07;LM(1)¼0.35(p¼0.55);LM(2)¼0.62(p¼0.54);ARCH¼0.81(p¼0.37);J-B¼1.93(p¼0.38)4.Malaysia

TotalMerchandiseExports

Adj-R2¼0.70;S.E.ofregression¼0.05;LM(1)¼0.19(p¼0.67);LM(2)¼0.41(p¼0.66);ARCH¼0.19(p¼0.66);J-B¼3.37(p¼0.18)ManufacturingExports

Adj-R2¼0.68;S.E.ofregression¼0.04;LM(1)¼0.05(p¼0.81);LM(2)¼0.17(p¼0.85);ARCH¼0.92(p¼0.34);J-B¼1.86(p¼0.39)

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIASITC7

37

Adj-R2¼0.73;S.E.ofregression¼0.04;LM(1)¼1.20(p¼0.28);LM(2)¼0.80(p¼0.45);ARCH¼0.33(p¼0.57);J-B¼1.25(p¼0.53)5.ThePhilippinesTotalMerchandiseExports

Adj-R2¼0.60;S.E.ofregression¼0.05;LM(1)¼2.84(p¼0.10);LM(2)¼1.54(p¼0.23);ARCH¼0.10(p¼0.75);J-B¼3.06(p¼0.22)ManufacturingExports

Adj-R2¼0.63;S.E.ofregression¼0.05;LM(1)¼2.89(p¼0.35);LM(2)¼0.68(p¼0.51);ARCH¼0.60(p¼0.44);J-B¼1.03(p¼0.60)SITC7

Adj-R2¼0.60;S.E.ofregression¼0.06;LM(1)¼1.53(p¼0.22);LM(2)¼2.77(p¼0.07);ARCH¼0.02(p¼0.90);J-B¼1.52(p¼0.47)

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

38

6.Singapore

JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

TotalMerchandiseExports

Adj-R2¼0.44;S.E.ofregression¼0.05;LM(1)¼2.31(p¼0.57);LM(2)¼1.33(p¼0.27);ARCH¼2.10(p¼0.15);J-B¼0.60(p¼0.74)ManufacturingExports

Adj-R2¼0.41;S.E.ofregression¼0.05;LM(1)¼0.24(p¼0.63);LM(2)¼1.10(p¼0.34);ARCH¼1.16(p¼0.29);J-B¼0.91(p¼0.63)SITC7

Adj-R2¼0.74;S.E.ofregression¼0.04;LM(1)¼0.005(p¼0.95);LM(2)¼1.23(p¼0.30);ARCH¼2.36(p¼0.13);J-B¼3.64(p¼0.16)7.Taipei,China

TotalMerchandiseExports

Adj-R2¼0.84;S.E.ofregression¼0.03;LM(1)¼0.17(p¼0.68);LM(2)¼0.08(p¼0.91);ARCH¼3.66(p¼0.06);J-B¼1.17(p¼0.56)

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIAManufacturingExports

39

Adj-R2¼0.80;S.E.ofregression¼0.03;LM(1)¼0.59(p¼0.44);LM(2)¼0.29(p¼0.74);ARCH¼1.19(p¼0.28);J-B¼3.86(p¼0.14)SITC7

Adj-R2¼0.79;S.E.ofregression¼0.04;LM(1)¼1.62(p¼0.21);LM(2)¼0.79(p¼0.46);ARCH¼0.53(p¼0.12);J-B¼0.20(p¼0.90)8.Thailand

TotalMerchandiseExports

Adj-R2¼0.60;S.E.ofregression¼0.04;LM(1)¼0.33(p¼0.57);LM(2)¼0.25(p¼0.77);ARCH¼0.46(p¼0.95);J-B¼0.41(p¼0.81)ManufacturingExports

Adj-R2¼0.50;S.E.ofregression¼0.04;LM(1)¼0.04(p¼0.84);LM(2)¼0.22(p¼0.80);ARCH¼1.79(p¼0.19);J-B¼0.32(p¼0.85)

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

40SITC7

JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

Adj-R2¼0.73;S.E.ofregression¼0.04;LM(1)¼0.43(p¼0.52);LM(2)¼0.98(p¼0.39);ARCH¼1.46(p¼0.23);J-B¼0.99(p¼0.61)

Notes:t-Ratiosaregiveninparentheses:*Signi cantatthe5percentlevel;**Signi cantatthe10percentlevel;***Signi cantatthe15percentlevel.preferstop-value.TE¼thetotalmerchandiseexports,ME¼themanufacturingexports,SITC7¼theSITC7exports,RER¼realeffectiveexchangerate,WD¼worlddemand,PC¼productioncapacity,FDI¼netforeigndirectinvestmentin ows,OTH¼manufacturingexportsofSITC5,6and8.

REFERENCES

Aitken,B.,G.HansonandA.Harrison(1997),‘Spillovers,ForeignInvestmentandExportBehavior’,JournalofInternationalEconomics,43,1–2,103–32.

Arndt,S.W.andA.Huemer(2004),‘Trade,ProductionNetworksandtheExchangeRate’,Work-ingPaper(LoweInstituteofPoliticalEconomy,ClaremontMcKennaCollege).

Athukorala,P.(2004),‘Post-crisisExportPerformanceinThailand’,ASEANEconomicBulletin,21,1,19–36.

Athukorala,P.(2005),‘ProductFragmentationandTradePatternsinEastAsia’,AsianEconomicPaper,4,3,1–27.

Baldwin,R.E.(2001),‘TheImplicationsofIncreasingFragmentationandGlobalizationfortheWorldTradeOrganization’,inL.K.ChengandH.Kierzkowski(eds.),GlobalProductionandTradeinEastAsia(Boston,MA:KluwerAcademicPublishers),249–71.

Barry,F.andJ.Bradley(1997),‘FDIandTrade:TheIrishHostCountryExperience’,EconomicJournal,107,445,1798–811.

Bushe,D.M.,I.B.KravisandR.E.Lipsey(1986),‘Prices,Activity,andMachineryExports:AnAnalysisBasedonNewPriceData’,ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,68,2,248–55.

Chinn,M.D.(2003),‘DoomedtoDe cits?AggregateUSTradeFlowsRe-Examined’,NationalBureauofEconomicResearchWorkingPaper9521(Cambridge,MA:NBER).

Chinn,M.D.(2005),‘SupplyCapacity.VerticalSpecializationandTariffRates:TheImplicationsforAggregateUSTradeFlowEquations’,NationalBureauofEconomicResearchWorkingPaper11719(Cambridge,MA:NBER).

Engle,R.F.andC.W.J.Granger(1987),‘Co-integrationandErrorCorrection:Representation,Estimation,andTesting’,Econometrica,55,2,251–76.

Goldstein,M.andM.Khan(1985),‘IncomeandPriceEffectsinForeignTrade’,inR.JonesandP.Kenen(eds.),HandbookofInternationalEconomics,Vol.2(Amsterdam:Elsevier).

Greenaway,D.,N.SousaandK.Wakelin(2004),‘DoDomesticFirmsLearntoExportfromMultinationals?’,EuropeanJournalofPoliticalEconomy,20,4,1027–43.

Hanson,G.H.,R.J.MataloniJr.andM.J.Slaughter(2001),‘ExpansionStrategiesofUSMultinationalFirms’,inS.M.CollinsandD.Rodrik(eds.),BrookingsTradeForum(Washington,DC:BrookingsInstitutionPress),

245–82.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

本文来源：https://www.bwwdw.com/article/pcr1.html