房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
更新时间:2023-09-02 18:07:01 阅读量: 教育文库 文档下载
- 房地产行业投资收益率推荐度:
- 相关推荐
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
2010 12 15
お g おg
2011
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
丙üü ......................................................................................................................1
..................................................................................................................................1 〇 ..........................................................................................................................7 丙üü ........................................................................................11
................................................................................................................................11 ............................................................................................................................13 丙üü ⑶ 催 偠 ............................................................................14
⑶ ....................................................................................................................................14催 偠 ....................................................................................................................................16 丙üü + ..............................................................................................................................17
....................................................................................................17 ........................................................................................................................................17 ぎ .........................................................................18 丙üü Ё 催 ā ā............................................................................................21
Ё 催—— こ 乬....................................................................................................21 ā ”üü 乬..............................................................................................................23 üü 乬....................................................................................................................................24 ⒃........................................................................................................................25
1 ...........................................................................................................................................3 2 佭 ........................................................................................3 3 ....................................................................................................4 4 乘 ........................................................................................................................4 5 佭 40 Ё ......................................................................................................................5 6 ...........................................................................................................................................................5 7 ........................................................................................................................5 8 ........................................................................................................................6 9 7 ⑶ .............................................................................................................6 10 ..................................................................................................................................7 11 乍 ..................................................................................................7 12 .....................................................................................................................................9 13 .............................................................................................................................................9 14 ................................................................................................10
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
15 14..................................................................................................................................10 16 üü2008 2009 .....10 17 üü2007 .......................................................11 18 乘 乍 ............................................................................................................12 19 ...........................................................................................................................................12 20 ................................................................................................................12 21 ....................................................................................................................12 22 10 7 乱 ⑶ .......................................................................................................14 23 2007 ⑶ ...................................................................................................................14 24 2007 ⑶ .......................................................................................................................15 25 2007 ⑶ ...................................................................................................................15 26 ...............................................................................................................................................15 27 ................................................................................................................................15 28 .......................................................................................................................................................16 29 ....................................................................................................................16 30 ........................................................................................................................16 31 .......................................................................................................................................16 32 ................................................................................................................17 33 催 ....................................................................................18 34 2009 ...........................................................................................................18 35 Ё ............................................................................................................19 36 2008 ...............................................................................................................19 37 啭 Ё ........................................................................................................................19 38 ....................................................................................................................19 39 2009 ...............................................................................................................20 40 2009 .......................................................................................20 41 ....................................................................................................21 42 ............................................................................................................21 43 啭 ............................................................................................................................22 44 3 催................................................................................................................22 45 ........................................................................................................23 46 ....................................................................................23 47 乱 乱........................................................................................................................26 48 AB ⑶ ................................................................................26 49 Ё ............................................................................................27
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
1 —— ....................................................................2 2 ................................................................................6 3 ...............................................................................................................................................6 4 乒2007 ..................................................................................................................................8 5 ㄝ乱 ........................................................................................................8 6 ............................................................................................................................8 7 ......................................................................................................................13 8 2011 .................................................................................................................................13 9 乍 .................................................................................................................................14 10 .......................................................................................................................................16 11 ............................................................................................................18 12 ............................................................................................................20 13 ................................................................................................................................21 14 ...................................................................................................................................22 15 В ...................................................................................................................................................23 16 ...................................................................................................................................24 17 A ...................................................................................................................25 18 ...........................................................................................................................................................25
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
2010 亢 吸 催 催 Ф г Ё 乘
2011 ッ Ё 乬 乍 ⑤ ッ 乬 〇 П おコ2011 乱 催 催 〇
丙üü
さ üü
2010 11 к 乍 Ё ā ā 乬 さ 2011 1000 2010 420
1000 2009 9.4 2010 10 7.2 1000 65 г 6.5 7
г お г 乬 ┰ üü ф 乬 ф お 乬 ぎ üü ぎ
ф 乬 乬 乬 乒 Ё 乬 乬 乬
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
1 üü
┰
木
〇
乘
乘
Ё 乬
乘 EPS ぎ
乬
⑤ Ё お
おコ 佅 1000
2006 П 68% 50% У Ё г 60% 1
2009 6.2 Ё 60% ф 乬 60% 〇 佭 偠 乬 ф 乬 25% 佭 乬 15% 60%*25% 〇 П г 25% 2009 1.55 ф г 3.15 2009 4921 4 1 60 900 Ё 2009 г 4000
Ё 乬 Ё 乬 ㄥ ㄥ Ё / П У г ぎ
1
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
1
:
70.0068.0066.0064.0062.0060.0058.00
6503
7103
7703
8303
8903
9503
0103
0703
2
佭
30,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000
01996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
⑤ Wind EDB
⑤ Wind EDB
4000 ā ā 4000 乬 Ё 4000
4000 МП 10 100 М 330 75% ф ф 1000*0.33 330 ∈ 催 г 〇 21% 2010-2014 15% 2015-2010 10%
ā ā 2011 2012 〇 催 乘 1800 Ё 2014 2000
乬 ⑤ 乬 乒 乬 乬 乬 г 乬
乬
П 乘 г
М 啭 ㄝ
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
Ё 催 Ё Ё г М 1990 Ё 1960 佭 У
3
⑤ Ё お
ā ā
г 乏 г 1000 2010 2014 Ё ā ā 乘 乘 Ф 2015 さ
4 乘
2,0001,5001,0005000
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
ā ā
⑤ Ё お 乘
1973 佭 ā ā 180 佭 唤 佭 425 1970 Ё 佭 さ 佭 1987 150 佭 佭
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
1970 佭 1970 佭 亲 г 佭 1970 佭 г 乬 亲
5 佭 40 Ё
120010008006004002000
1969
1970
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
/
⑤ 佭 Ё お
üü 〇
Ё 乬 乬 ⑤ ⑤ ㄝ 2002 200-350 г 30% г 18 0.1%
6
:
807570656055504540
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
:
350300250200150100500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
7
之
⑤ Wind ⑤ Ё ⑤
Ё 2010 П 催⑶ 2010 5 Ф ㄝ
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
8
1400
120010008006004002000
1000080006000400020000
9 7
⑶
乱
6005004003002001000
7.31-8.06
9.04-9.10
10.10-10.15
20%10%
0%
11.13-11.19
⑶
50%
40%30%
⑤ CRIC Ё お ⑤ CRIC Ё お
2
2010
2007 2008 2009
10
3258 2006 3234 1350 2661 1612 2752 1340 492 362 1266 698 556 438 692 249 500 281 723 256 7467 4699 8667 3893
2007 2008
2009
2010 1416827 204 778 3291
2007
2008
2009
/ 2010 10
07 07
699 702 10641150 1185 13751005 274 11211443 516 13814471 2930 5078
21% 35% 33% 105% 39% 43% 74% 50% 62% 54% 204%289%
76% 89% 29% 92% 183%
191%
304% 234%
31% 58% 20% 27% 33% 60% 62% 59% 85% 64%
174 253 137 66
⑤ ⑤ Ё お
2011 乘 2011 〇 г
3
㈡ 1 2 1 1 2 2 1
1 ф 3
1 1 1 1
㈡ 1
1 1
1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1
ф 3
1 1 1
啘
4 30 9 30
10 1 12 31 10 7 10 9
10 10 12 31 10 11 10 12 10 13
10 14 12 31 10 16
1 1 18 10 15
⑤ ⑤ Ё お
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
〇乘 ╰ г 4 お 9 929 Ё ā ā 乘 ā 乘 ā 乘 П ㄝ
ㄝ
〇
П
09 乬
4 佪 2010 4.34% 5.03% 7 2009 2010 1 ∈ 2008 ∈ 7 乱Ё 催
10
5.25.04.84.64.44.24.03.8
08Q409Q109Q209Q309Q410Q110Q210Q3 ⑤
11 乍
1086420-2-4-6
2006 Q3
2007 Q3
2008 Q3
2009 Q3
2010 Q3
乍
⑤ Ё Ё お
2006 3 乱 1 乍
2006 乚 2008 乱 乍
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
4 乒2007
: 乘
4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 72,193 70,367 72,655 73,104
94,735 93,494 97,581 101,116 97,413 80,648 62,081 61,232
83,992 73,608 64,206 81,654 69,940 83,526 95,749 63,765
77,179 77,527 79,734 77,575
:
2007 20,481 16,076 8,716 8,048
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2007 2007
: n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2007 29,340 30,329 52,168 52,930 45,226 37,266 34,412 17,776
: 2007 108 48 43 69 95 78 78 68
242 141 121 125 102 85 77 69
——2007 9 27 85,122 n.a. 5,984 79,977 68,497 46,355
n.a. 27,704 29,408
4,966 7,126 6,596
⑤ CRIC Wind Ё お
5 ㄝ乱
2007 9
佪 20% 30% 40% 50% 20% 30% 40% 50% 20% 30% 40% 50% 20% 30% 40% 50% 20% 30% 40% 50%
7 85 1.1 1.2 1.5
г
8,242 9,057 9,911 10,500 11,104 6,868 7,548 8,259 8,750 9,254 8,601 9,277 9,982 10,466 10,962
7,372 7,952 8,556 8,971 9,396 8,705
佪 7,462 8,065 8,694 9,127 9,570 75 -780 -650 П
⑤ Ё お
6
2010/9/29 2010/4/30 2010/1/10
ㄝ
佪
佪 佪 30% 50%
90 佪 20% 90 30% 50%
ф ф ( ) ( ) 佪 40% 佪 20%
1.1 1.1 亢
Ё 4.32% 4.05% 4.86% 4.59% 0.27
佪 ∈ 催 催 亢 催 50%
2008/10/27 0.7
2007/9/27
ф佪 ㄥ 90 佪 20% ф佪 ㄥ 90 佪 30% ф ф ( 佪 40%
1.1
⑤ Ё お
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
〇
12
4.003.503.002.502.001.501.000.500.002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
7.00006.50006.0000
2005 ⑤ Wind
% 13
:
8.50008.00007.5000
: :
20062007200820092010
⑤ Wind
〇 Н 〇 〇 ПЁ 乘 乘
ッ ッ ッ 乴 Н 1 乥 ㄝ
2008 3 7.83% 5.94% П 2008 100-150bp ㄝ 乬 2002 2008 2 2008 〇 2010 г г
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
14
9876543210
200220032004200520062007200820092010 ⑤ Ё
12 2002 1 1
15 14
(
)
( )
9876543210
200220032004200520062007200820092010 ⑤ Wind
さ М П г さ 2008 亢偸 П 2011
16 üü2008 2009
2,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000
200807
5 %
98.587.576.565.55
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
⑤ Ё お
2 ㄝ П 催 2011 6 50bp-100bp 佪 乘
200901
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
17 üü2007
1800
16001400120010008006004002000
200701
8.00
7.80
7.607.407.207.006.806.606.406.20
200707
200708
200709
200710
200711
200712
200702
200703
200704
200705
⑤ Ё お
乍 ф 乘 催 ▔ ф ぎ
催 催 催
お Ё 偠
ST
2010 Ё 催 2008 2010 г 9.37% 2009 14.29% 2008 -2.62%
200706
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
18
乘 乍
/
37%35%33%31%29%27%
乘 乍/
29%
27%25%23%21%19%17%
19
- /
16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%
25%15%
07 Q107 Q308 Q108 Q309 Q109Q310Q110Q3 ⑤
07Q107Q308Q108Q309Q109Q310Q110Q3
⑤
乘 乍 催 催 乘 г
г 2009 г 2009 2009 2010 2008 2009 乍 2009 2010 г ⑤
20
3.532.521.510.50-0.5-1
% 21
30025020015010050
ф
08Q108Q208Q308Q409Q109Q209Q309Q410Q110Q210Q3
07Q107Q308Q108Q309Q109Q310Q110Q3
⑤ ⑤
2010 П 2010 催 г 2009 2010 5 乘 催 ф 催
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
7
催 ∈ 乍 】
シ ф Ё Ё 乍 佪 50% 催 ㄝ 乘
に
⑤ Ё お
2006 2007 ⑤ 2007 乍 üü 2008 乬 г г 2009
8 2011
06 07 08 09
⑤
ā ā
⑤
⑤
⑤ 乘 〇
乘
〇乘
⑤
⑤ Ё お
乘 х 3 ā ā ⑤ М М
ā ā 2011 ㄝ Ё ぎ г
г 乘 乱 亢 Ё ▔ 10 催 コ ⑤ г ▔ 亢
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
2011 Н催 ⑤ г ā ā 乍 2011
9 乍
乍 2#3#4# ∝乍 乍 乍
乎
乍 乍
⑤
⑶
ッ ッ ⑶
7 ⑶ 21% ⑶ 乍 ⑶ 200% ⑶ г 100% ⑶ г 50% г
22 10 7 乱 ⑶
乱(
6005004003002001000
7.31-8.06
8.28-9.03
9.25-10.1
10.23-10.29
20%10%0%
100500J-07
A-07
M-08
O-08
M-09
D-09
J-10
⑶ (
50%40%30%
250200150
23 2007 ⑶
⑶ %
20,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000
⑤ CRIC ⑤ CRIC
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧
24 2007 ⑶
140120100806040200J-07
A-07
M-08
O-08
M-09
D-09
J-10
14000120001000080006000400020000
25
2007 ⑶
250200150100500J-07
⑶ %
1400012000100008000600040002000
S-07M-08J-09S-09M-10
⑤ CRIC ⑤ CRIC
⑶ ぎ Ё 催
2008/2009 24% 36%
2010 乘 40% Ё г 乘 1800 2500 / г
26 /
2000150010005000
1400012000100008000600040002000
2007
2008
2009
2010E
1801601401201008060402000902
27
乱( )
乱(
09060910100210061010
⑤ Ё お
⑤
⑤
⑶ г 催 2004 催 2004 ā ā 3 ā乘 ā
正在阅读:
房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧09-02
新消规的读书笔记09-26
2019银行员工个人述职报告范文09-21
母亲节感恩母爱作文800字07-11
财务会计员工2022年度个人工作总结范文03-25
审计学课件练习题第一章-第六章03-07
一年级上期生活生命与安全教案(全)08-11
论民间借贷下的银行潜在风险09-19
- exercise2
- 铅锌矿详查地质设计 - 图文
- 厨余垃圾、餐厨垃圾堆肥系统设计方案
- 陈明珠开题报告
- 化工原理精选例题
- 政府形象宣传册营销案例
- 小学一至三年级语文阅读专项练习题
- 2014.民诉 期末考试 复习题
- 巅峰智业 - 做好顶层设计对建设城市的重要意义
- (三起)冀教版三年级英语上册Unit4 Lesson24练习题及答案
- 2017年实心轮胎现状及发展趋势分析(目录)
- 基于GIS的农用地定级技术研究定稿
- 2017-2022年中国医疗保健市场调查与市场前景预测报告(目录) - 图文
- 作业
- OFDM技术仿真(MATLAB代码) - 图文
- Android工程师笔试题及答案
- 生命密码联合密码
- 空间地上权若干法律问题探究
- 江苏学业水平测试《机械基础》模拟试题
- 选课走班实施方案
- 货币政策
- 策略
- 投资
- 房地产
- 行业
- 2011
- 雅美乐-地区独家代理商代理业务协议书
- 北方园林常见植物1
- 行政复议法练习题
- 把握机遇迎挑战 发挥优势勇创新----河南教育学院张磊挂职工作总结
- 简述FLAC的地学应用
- 2017-2022年中国美白保湿营养露行业供需趋势及投资风险研究报告目录
- 牛仔裤的夏天
- 2019七年级数学下册 第6章 一元一次方程 6.2 解一元一次方程(4)导学案华东师大版
- 高中英语必修一 unit 2 课文翻译及讲解
- 传统品牌的电商之路
- 中班社会《做最好的我》教案
- 乌江中学食堂登记表
- 15级高一数学成都市2012至2013学年度上期期末调研考试题及答案
- 小米企业PEST分析
- 英国文学最全名词解释
- 实验一 熟悉常用的网络命令实验报告-数媒
- 2016年化纤现状研究及发展趋势
- 【名师点拨】 2014-2015学年高中数学人教A版必修1过关测试卷:第一章(含答案)
- 体育课课外活动早操课间操的制度及要求
- 我对管理学的理解论文浅谈我对管理学的认识