房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

更新时间:2023-09-02 18:07:01 阅读量: 教育文库 文档下载

说明:文章内容仅供预览,部分内容可能不全。下载后的文档,内容与下面显示的完全一致。下载之前请确认下面内容是否您想要的,是否完整无缺。

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

2010 12 15

お g おg

2011

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

丙üü ......................................................................................................................1

..................................................................................................................................1 〇 ..........................................................................................................................7 丙üü ........................................................................................11

................................................................................................................................11 ............................................................................................................................13 丙üü ⑶ 催 偠 ............................................................................14

⑶ ....................................................................................................................................14催 偠 ....................................................................................................................................16 丙üü + ..............................................................................................................................17

....................................................................................................17 ........................................................................................................................................17 ぎ .........................................................................18 丙üü Ё 催 ā ā............................................................................................21

Ё 催—— こ 乬....................................................................................................21 ā ”üü 乬..............................................................................................................23 üü 乬....................................................................................................................................24 ⒃........................................................................................................................25

1 ...........................................................................................................................................3 2 佭 ........................................................................................3 3 ....................................................................................................4 4 乘 ........................................................................................................................4 5 佭 40 Ё ......................................................................................................................5 6 ...........................................................................................................................................................5 7 ........................................................................................................................5 8 ........................................................................................................................6 9 7 ⑶ .............................................................................................................6 10 ..................................................................................................................................7 11 乍 ..................................................................................................7 12 .....................................................................................................................................9 13 .............................................................................................................................................9 14 ................................................................................................10

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

15 14..................................................................................................................................10 16 üü2008 2009 .....10 17 üü2007 .......................................................11 18 乘 乍 ............................................................................................................12 19 ...........................................................................................................................................12 20 ................................................................................................................12 21 ....................................................................................................................12 22 10 7 乱 ⑶ .......................................................................................................14 23 2007 ⑶ ...................................................................................................................14 24 2007 ⑶ .......................................................................................................................15 25 2007 ⑶ ...................................................................................................................15 26 ...............................................................................................................................................15 27 ................................................................................................................................15 28 .......................................................................................................................................................16 29 ....................................................................................................................16 30 ........................................................................................................................16 31 .......................................................................................................................................16 32 ................................................................................................................17 33 催 ....................................................................................18 34 2009 ...........................................................................................................18 35 Ё ............................................................................................................19 36 2008 ...............................................................................................................19 37 啭 Ё ........................................................................................................................19 38 ....................................................................................................................19 39 2009 ...............................................................................................................20 40 2009 .......................................................................................20 41 ....................................................................................................21 42 ............................................................................................................21 43 啭 ............................................................................................................................22 44 3 催................................................................................................................22 45 ........................................................................................................23 46 ....................................................................................23 47 乱 乱........................................................................................................................26 48 AB ⑶ ................................................................................26 49 Ё ............................................................................................27

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

1 —— ....................................................................2 2 ................................................................................6 3 ...............................................................................................................................................6 4 乒2007 ..................................................................................................................................8 5 ㄝ乱 ........................................................................................................8 6 ............................................................................................................................8 7 ......................................................................................................................13 8 2011 .................................................................................................................................13 9 乍 .................................................................................................................................14 10 .......................................................................................................................................16 11 ............................................................................................................18 12 ............................................................................................................20 13 ................................................................................................................................21 14 ...................................................................................................................................22 15 В ...................................................................................................................................................23 16 ...................................................................................................................................24 17 A ...................................................................................................................25 18 ...........................................................................................................................................................25

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

2010 亢 吸 催 催 Ф г Ё 乘

2011 ッ Ё 乬 乍 ⑤ ッ 乬 〇 П おコ2011 乱 催 催 〇

丙üü

さ üü

2010 11 к 乍 Ё ā ā 乬 さ 2011 1000 2010 420

1000 2009 9.4 2010 10 7.2 1000 65 г 6.5 7

г お г 乬 ┰ üü ф 乬 ф お 乬 ぎ üü ぎ

ф 乬 乬 乬 乒 Ё 乬 乬 乬

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

1 üü

Ё 乬

乘 EPS ぎ

⑤ Ё お

おコ 佅 1000

2006 П 68% 50% У Ё г 60% 1

2009 6.2 Ё 60% ф 乬 60% 〇 佭 偠 乬 ф 乬 25% 佭 乬 15% 60%*25% 〇 П г 25% 2009 1.55 ф г 3.15 2009 4921 4 1 60 900 Ё 2009 г 4000

Ё 乬 Ё 乬 ㄥ ㄥ Ё / П У г ぎ

1

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

1

:

70.0068.0066.0064.0062.0060.0058.00

6503

7103

7703

8303

8903

9503

0103

0703

2

30,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000

01996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

⑤ Wind EDB

⑤ Wind EDB

4000 ā ā 4000 乬 Ё 4000

4000 МП 10 100 М 330 75% ф ф 1000*0.33 330 ∈ 催 г 〇 21% 2010-2014 15% 2015-2010 10%

ā ā 2011 2012 〇 催 乘 1800 Ё 2014 2000

乬 ⑤ 乬 乒 乬 乬 乬 г 乬

П 乘 г

М 啭 ㄝ

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

Ё 催 Ё Ё г М 1990 Ё 1960 佭 У

3

⑤ Ё お

ā ā

г 乏 г 1000 2010 2014 Ё ā ā 乘 乘 Ф 2015 さ

4 乘

2,0001,5001,0005000

2010E

2011E

2012E

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2019E

ā ā

⑤ Ё お 乘

1973 佭 ā ā 180 佭 唤 佭 425 1970 Ё 佭 さ 佭 1987 150 佭 佭

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

1970 佭 1970 佭 亲 г 佭 1970 佭 г 乬 亲

5 佭 40 Ё

120010008006004002000

1969

1970

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

/

⑤ 佭 Ё お

üü 〇

Ё 乬 乬 ⑤ ⑤ ㄝ 2002 200-350 г 30% г 18 0.1%

6

:

807570656055504540

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

:

350300250200150100500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

7

⑤ Wind ⑤ Ё ⑤

Ё 2010 П 催⑶ 2010 5 Ф ㄝ

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

8

1400

120010008006004002000

1000080006000400020000

9 7

6005004003002001000

7.31-8.06

9.04-9.10

10.10-10.15

20%10%

0%

11.13-11.19

50%

40%30%

⑤ CRIC Ё お ⑤ CRIC Ё お

2

2010

2007 2008 2009

10

3258 2006 3234 1350 2661 1612 2752 1340 492 362 1266 698 556 438 692 249 500 281 723 256 7467 4699 8667 3893

2007 2008

2009

2010 1416827 204 778 3291

2007

2008

2009

/ 2010 10

07 07

699 702 10641150 1185 13751005 274 11211443 516 13814471 2930 5078

21% 35% 33% 105% 39% 43% 74% 50% 62% 54% 204%289%

76% 89% 29% 92% 183%

191%

304% 234%

31% 58% 20% 27% 33% 60% 62% 59% 85% 64%

174 253 137 66

⑤ ⑤ Ё お

2011 乘 2011 〇 г

3

㈡ 1 2 1 1 2 2 1

1 ф 3

1 1 1 1

㈡ 1

1 1

1 1

1 1 1 1

1 1

ф 3

1 1 1

4 30 9 30

10 1 12 31 10 7 10 9

10 10 12 31 10 11 10 12 10 13

10 14 12 31 10 16

1 1 18 10 15

⑤ ⑤ Ё お

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

〇乘 ╰ г 4 お 9 929 Ё ā ā 乘 ā 乘 ā 乘 П ㄝ

П

09 乬

4 佪 2010 4.34% 5.03% 7 2009 2010 1 ∈ 2008 ∈ 7 乱Ё 催

10

5.25.04.84.64.44.24.03.8

08Q409Q109Q209Q309Q410Q110Q210Q3 ⑤

11 乍

1086420-2-4-6

2006 Q3

2007 Q3

2008 Q3

2009 Q3

2010 Q3

⑤ Ё Ё お

2006 3 乱 1 乍

2006 乚 2008 乱 乍

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

4 乒2007

: 乘

4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4

n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 72,193 70,367 72,655 73,104

94,735 93,494 97,581 101,116 97,413 80,648 62,081 61,232

83,992 73,608 64,206 81,654 69,940 83,526 95,749 63,765

77,179 77,527 79,734 77,575

:

2007 20,481 16,076 8,716 8,048

n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

2007 2007

: n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

2007 29,340 30,329 52,168 52,930 45,226 37,266 34,412 17,776

: 2007 108 48 43 69 95 78 78 68

242 141 121 125 102 85 77 69

——2007 9 27 85,122 n.a. 5,984 79,977 68,497 46,355

n.a. 27,704 29,408

4,966 7,126 6,596

⑤ CRIC Wind Ё お

5 ㄝ乱

2007 9

佪 20% 30% 40% 50% 20% 30% 40% 50% 20% 30% 40% 50% 20% 30% 40% 50% 20% 30% 40% 50%

7 85 1.1 1.2 1.5

г

8,242 9,057 9,911 10,500 11,104 6,868 7,548 8,259 8,750 9,254 8,601 9,277 9,982 10,466 10,962

7,372 7,952 8,556 8,971 9,396 8,705

佪 7,462 8,065 8,694 9,127 9,570 75 -780 -650 П

⑤ Ё お

6

2010/9/29 2010/4/30 2010/1/10

佪 佪 30% 50%

90 佪 20% 90 30% 50%

ф ф ( ) ( ) 佪 40% 佪 20%

1.1 1.1 亢

Ё 4.32% 4.05% 4.86% 4.59% 0.27

佪 ∈ 催 催 亢 催 50%

2008/10/27 0.7

2007/9/27

ф佪 ㄥ 90 佪 20% ф佪 ㄥ 90 佪 30% ф ф ( 佪 40%

1.1

⑤ Ё お

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

12

4.003.503.002.502.001.501.000.500.002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

7.00006.50006.0000

2005 ⑤ Wind

% 13

:

8.50008.00007.5000

: :

20062007200820092010

⑤ Wind

〇 Н 〇 〇 ПЁ 乘 乘

ッ ッ ッ 乴 Н 1 乥 ㄝ

2008 3 7.83% 5.94% П 2008 100-150bp ㄝ 乬 2002 2008 2 2008 〇 2010 г г

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

14

9876543210

200220032004200520062007200820092010 ⑤ Ё

12 2002 1 1

15 14

(

)

( )

9876543210

200220032004200520062007200820092010 ⑤ Wind

さ М П г さ 2008 亢偸 П 2011

16 üü2008 2009

2,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000

200807

5 %

98.587.576.565.55

200902

200903

200904

200905

200906

200808

200809

200810

200811

200812

⑤ Ё お

2 ㄝ П 催 2011 6 50bp-100bp 佪 乘

200901

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

17 üü2007

1800

16001400120010008006004002000

200701

8.00

7.80

7.607.407.207.006.806.606.406.20

200707

200708

200709

200710

200711

200712

200702

200703

200704

200705

⑤ Ё お

乍 ф 乘 催 ▔ ф ぎ

催 催 催

お Ё 偠

ST

2010 Ё 催 2008 2010 г 9.37% 2009 14.29% 2008 -2.62%

200706

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

18

乘 乍

/

37%35%33%31%29%27%

乘 乍/

29%

27%25%23%21%19%17%

19

- /

16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%

25%15%

07 Q107 Q308 Q108 Q309 Q109Q310Q110Q3 ⑤

07Q107Q308Q108Q309Q109Q310Q110Q3

乘 乍 催 催 乘 г

г 2009 г 2009 2009 2010 2008 2009 乍 2009 2010 г ⑤

20

3.532.521.510.50-0.5-1

% 21

30025020015010050

ф

08Q108Q208Q308Q409Q109Q209Q309Q410Q110Q210Q3

07Q107Q308Q108Q309Q109Q310Q110Q3

⑤ ⑤

2010 П 2010 催 г 2009 2010 5 乘 催 ф 催

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

7

催 ∈ 乍 】

シ ф Ё Ё 乍 佪 50% 催 ㄝ 乘

⑤ Ё お

2006 2007 ⑤ 2007 乍 üü 2008 乬 г г 2009

8 2011

06 07 08 09

ā ā

⑤ 乘 〇

〇乘

⑤ Ё お

乘 х 3 ā ā ⑤ М М

ā ā 2011 ㄝ Ё ぎ г

г 乘 乱 亢 Ё ▔ 10 催 コ ⑤ г ▔ 亢

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

2011 Н催 ⑤ г ā ā 乍 2011

9 乍

乍 2#3#4# ∝乍 乍 乍

乍 乍

ッ ッ ⑶

7 ⑶ 21% ⑶ 乍 ⑶ 200% ⑶ г 100% ⑶ г 50% г

22 10 7 乱 ⑶

乱(

6005004003002001000

7.31-8.06

8.28-9.03

9.25-10.1

10.23-10.29

20%10%0%

100500J-07

A-07

M-08

O-08

M-09

D-09

J-10

⑶ (

50%40%30%

250200150

23 2007 ⑶

⑶ %

20,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000

⑤ CRIC ⑤ CRIC

房地产行业2011年投资策略—货币政策歧

24 2007 ⑶

140120100806040200J-07

A-07

M-08

O-08

M-09

D-09

J-10

14000120001000080006000400020000

25

2007 ⑶

250200150100500J-07

⑶ %

1400012000100008000600040002000

S-07M-08J-09S-09M-10

⑤ CRIC ⑤ CRIC

⑶ ぎ Ё 催

2008/2009 24% 36%

2010 乘 40% Ё г 乘 1800 2500 / г

26 /

2000150010005000

1400012000100008000600040002000

2007

2008

2009

2010E

1801601401201008060402000902

27

乱( )

乱(

09060910100210061010

⑤ Ё お

⑶ г 催 2004 催 2004 ā ā 3 ā乘 ā

本文来源:https://www.bwwdw.com/article/on8i.html

Top