经济学人中英文版

篇一：《经济学人》阅读练习中英对照版50篇

《经济学家》读译参考 Translated & Edited by Chen Jilong

TEXT 1

Rebuilding the American dream machine

重建美国梦机器

Jan 19th 2006 | NEW YORK

From The Economist print edition

FOR America's colleges, January is a

month of reckoning. Most

applications for the academic

a want the more

to been flooded

New York (CUNY), a public college

对美国的大学而言，申请必须在12市大学，一所公立学院，没有田园诗一般

fees; of $7,500 (to help with general expenses) and a laptop 2001年开始为聪明过人的学生所设立的培养计划。6约有1100人能得到“免费教育”，这在花费巨大的美被纳入城市大学荣誉计划的学生无需支付学费，相反，他们还获得一份请尽早被批准进入下一学年计划的学生达到了70%。

Admission has nothing to do with being an athlete, or a child of an alumnus, or having an influential sponsor, or being a member of a particularly aggrieved ethnic group—criteria that are increasingly important at America's elite colleges. Most of the students who apply to the honours programme come from relatively poor families, many of them immigrant ones. All that CUNY demands is that these students be diligent and clever.

批准与否跟学生是不是一名运动员，或者是不是校友子弟，或者有没有颇具影响力的后台，

《经济学家》读译参考 Translated & Edited by Chen Jilong

或者是不是某个爱打抱不平的民族社团成员，都毫无干系——而这些在美国的知名学府中已经日益成为重要标准。申请加入荣誉计划的学生大多数来自相对贫困的家庭，其中许多人都是移民。城市大学唯一需要的就是这些学生必须勤奋并且聪颖。

Last year, the average standardised test score of this group was in the top 7% in the country. Among the rest of CUNY's students averages are lower, but they are now just breaking into the top third (compared with the bottom third in 1997). CUNY does not appear alongside Harvard and Stanford on lists of America's top colleges, but its recent transformation offers a neat parable of meritocracy revisited.

去年，城市大学学生的标准化考试平均分位居全美最高分的7%均分较低，但是他们即将冲进前三名（相比1997年的倒数前三名）。（这一段请高手参详）

to be found not in Cambridge or Palo Alto, but in called City

20世纪60年代以前，那就是美国高等教育管理最好的并不在剑桥大学或者是Palo Alto，在一所名叫城市大学1847年，

City's golden era came in America's best known colleges restricted the laureates, including Robert Aumann (who graduated in 1950); Hunter, its college, produced two, and a sister branch in Brooklyn a pivotal figure on the Supreme Court (class of of who would later swing to the right, such as Irving Kristol 那时美国最知名的大学都限制犹太人学生入学，当时1933年到1954年之间，城市大学培养出了9个后来获得诺贝尔奖的人，其中包括2005年经济学奖获得者罗伯特?奥曼（毕业于1950年）。城市大学前附属女子学院则培养出两名诺贝尔奖获得者，而其在布鲁克林的一所分校也培养出一名。城市大学还培养出了最高法院的关键人物费利克斯?法兰克福（1902届）、埃拉?格什温（1918届）、天花疫苗发明者乔纳斯?索尔克（1934届）以及互联网设计者罗伯特?卡恩（1960届）等人。20世纪三、四十年代，城市大学作为左翼分子活动区，城市大学孕育了许多新保守主义知识分子，他们后来都转向了右翼，比如欧文?克里斯托（1940届，校外活动积极分子，参加过反战俱乐部）、丹尼尔?贝尔和内森?格雷泽。

《经济学家》读译参考 Translated & Edited by Chen Jilong

What went wrong? Put simply, City dropped its standards. It was partly to do with demography, partly to do with earnest muddleheadedness. In the 1960s, universities across the country faced intense pressure to admit more minority students. Although City was open to all races, only a small number of black and Hispanic students passed the strict tests (including a future secretary of state, Colin Powell). That, critics decided, could not be squared with City's mission to “serve all the citizens of New York”. At first the standards were tweaked, but this was not enough, and in 1969 massive student protests shut down City's campus for two weeks. Faced with upheaval, City scrapped its admissions standards altogether. By 1970, almost any student who graduated from New York's high schools could attend.

哪里出问题了呢？简单点说，就是城市大学降低了它的标准。一部分与憨头憨脑的热忱有关。20世纪60年代，大压力。尽管城市大学对各色人种都敞开校门，严格的测试（其中包括后来成为国务卿的科林?鲍威尔）。年，学生大规模的抗议让城市大学停课两周。面对突如其来的变化，学标准。到1970

但到了1976

By 1997, seven out of the CUNY system were failing at least one remedial test in that they had not learnt it to high-school

写作和数学中至少一门加试（亦。1999年纽约市府发布的一项报告总结认为，“纽约城市大学历但是学生的高退学率和低毕业率引发了这样一”。

Using the report as ammunition, profound reforms were pushed through by New York's then mayor, Rudolph Giuliani, and another alumnus, Herman Badillo (1951), America's first Puerto Rican congressman. A new head of CUNY was appointed. Matthew Goldstein, a mathematician (1963), has shifted the focus back towards higher standards amid considerable controversy.

纽约市当时的市长鲁道夫?丘里安尼以及同样是城市大学校友（1951届）的美国第一名波多黎各裔议员赫尔曼?巴蒂洛，利用该报告为导火索，对城市大学进行了深入改革。一名新校长上任，他叫马修?高德斯坦，是一名数学家。他把争议的焦点重新引回到了更高的入学标准之上。

《经济学家》读译参考 Translated & Edited by Chen Jilong

For instance, by 2001, all of CUNY's 11 “senior” colleges (ie, ones that offer full four-year courses) had stopped offering remedial education. This prompted howls from the teaching faculty, who said it would “create a ghetto-like separation between levels of colleges”, keeping black and Hispanic students out of the best schools. In fact, the racial composition of the senior schools, monitored obsessively by critics, has remained largely unchanged: one in four students at the senior colleges is black, one in five is Latino. A third have ties to Puerto Rico, Jamaica, China and the Dominican Republic.

例如，到2001年，所有城市大学的“高级学院”（亦即提供全部四年培养课程的学院）停止提供加试教育，随即引起了教师们的强烈不满，他们认为这将如犹太人区一般的分裂”着，高级学院学生的种族构成大部分保持不变：

bright locals, especially in science. One at City now has twice as many Rhodes scholarships, and a Bronx Intel Science Prize is

入学标准提高了，州或者城市大学而非更少：今年，报名人数又创新高。尤其是在科学方面。20世纪90年代末期的两倍。去年，两名均出(译者注：一个获得按塞西尔?罗兹的遗嘱设立的奖学金的)，一名布朗克斯区（译者注：美国纽约东南部。曾为荷兰西印度公司工作的一个丹麦1898年成为大纽约的一部分。）出生的学生则荣获

All this not imply that CUNY is out of the woods. Much of it looks run down. CUNY's annual budget of $1.7 billion has stayed largely unchanged, even as student numbers have risen. With New York City's finances still precarious, city and state support for the university has fallen by more than one-third since 1991 in real terms. It has, however, begun to bring in private money.

如此种种，并不表示纽约城市大学已经走出泥潭。很多方面都在每况愈下。即便学生人数增加了，该大学每年17亿美元的预算仍未能得到较大改观。由于纽约市财政仍旧不稳定，市府和州府资助自1991年以来已经下降了超过三分之一。然而，学校已经开始从私人那里赚取资金。

《经济学家》读译参考 Translated & Edited by Chen Jilong

A new journalism school will open in the autumn, helped by a $4m grant from the Sulzberger family, who control the New York Times, and led by Business Week's former editor, Steve Shepard (class of 1961). Efforts to raise a $1.2 billion endowment have passed the half-way mark, helped by (formerly estranged) alumni. Intel's former chairman, Andrew Grove, who graduated from City in 1960 as a penniless Hungarian immigrant, donated $26m (about 30% of City's operating budget) to the engineering school, calling his alma mater “a veritable American dream machine”. 由于得到《纽约时报》老板苏尔兹伯格家族400万美元的赞助，在《商业周刊》前任编辑史蒂夫?谢巴德（1961届学生）的牵头下，一所新办的新闻学院将于秋季开学。在一些校友（此前与学校较为疏远）的帮助下，募集12年毕业、曾经身无分文的匈牙利移民、因特尔公司前任主席安德鲁?万美元（约相当于大学预算的30%）。

There are broader lessons to draw from CUNY, especially to do in study by Anthony Carnevale and Stephen Rose for students are 面。根据安东尼?卡内瓦和斯蒂芬?目前美国顶尖大学的学生中仅有大约3%

那就是学校高标“杰出人物统治论这个词并不TEXT 2

Here be dragons

龙来了

Jan 26th 2006

From The Economist print edition

Google, the internet search engine that has grown into a corporate giant, began operations in China on January 25th. Though critics suggest it has betrayed its own motto - “don't be evil” - by agreeing to censor certain sites, Google maintains it will do more good than harm

已经成为公司巨人的国际互联网搜索引擎——Google，1月25日启动了在中国的业务。尽管

篇二：economist(经济学人)精品文章中英对照

Economist经济学人精品文章

Whopper to go

至尊汉堡，打包带走

Will Burger King be gobbled up by private equity?

汉堡王是否会被私人股本吞并？

Sep 2nd 2010 | NEW YORK

SHARES in Burger King (BK) soared on September 1st on reports that the fast-food company was talking to several private-equity firms interested in buying it. How much beef was behind these stories was unclear. But lately the company famous for the slogan ―Have It Your Way‖ has certainly not been having it its own way. There may be arguments about whether BK or McDonald‘s serves the best fries, but there is no doubt which is more popular with stockmarket investors: the maker of the Big Mac has supersized its lead in the past two years.

有报道披露，快餐企业汉堡王（BK）正在与数个有收购意向的私人股本接洽，9月1日，汉堡王的股值随之飙升。这些报道究竟有多少真材实料不得而知。汉堡王的著名口号是―我选我味‖，但如今显然它身不由己，心中五味杂陈。汉堡王和麦当劳哪家薯条最好吃，食客们一直争论不休，但股票投资人更喜欢哪家股票，却一目了然：过去两年里，巨无霸麦当劳一直在扩大自己的优势。

Recession has favoured McDonald‘s over BK, whose share price has fallen by half since the economy was flame-grilled in the summer of 2008. Shares in McDonald‘s have risen, reaching an all-time high in August. Same-store sales at BK have fallen for five successive quarters.

金融危机却更青睐汉堡王，自2008年经济低迷以来，其股票价格跌至原来的一半。而麦当劳的股票不跌反涨，在8月又创下了历史新高。汉堡王的同店销售额连续五个季度下跌。

Why has McDonald‘s been eating BK‘s lunch? Among other things, BK has always had a higher proportion of sales to young men, who have been hit especially hard by the recession. McDonald‘s, by contrast, has for several years wooed women and older people with relatively healthy salads and drinkable coffee. BK has struggled to follow suit. At the same time, it has had to contend with angry shareholders, as the rising cost of beef and other ingredients has clobbered its profits. BK may also have cannibalised its existing sales by offering value meals that were a bit too irresistible.

为何麦当劳在与汉堡王的竞争中占得先机？别的不谈，汉堡王的顾客更多的是年轻人，而年轻人受金融危机打击尤其严重。相对地，麦当劳近年来一直以相对健康的沙拉和可口的咖啡，吸引女性和中老年人。汉堡王一直难以模仿。与此同时，随着牛肉等原材料的成本上涨，利润一跌再跌，汉堡王又不得不去对付那些愤怒的股东。 汉堡王的套餐太过诱人，可能也影响了其他产品的销量。

BK is used to changes in ownership. It went from being part of Pillsbury, a food company, to Grand

Metropolitan, a British conglomerate, then to Diageo, a drinks giant. In 2002 it was sold to a group of private-equity investors: TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs. They did a fair job, improving sales with better marketing. They also helped turn around the most troubled of the franchisees who operate most BK restaurants. In 2006 BK floated its shares again. Its bosses may hope that going private once more will protect them from short-term stockmarket pressures while they ponder how to beat McDonald‘s.

汉堡王此前多次易主，已经习以为常了。它曾是皮尔斯百利食品公司的一部分，后转入英国大都会集团，继而转投饮品巨头帝亚吉欧。2002年又被转手卖给一批私人股本投资者：德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛。他们经营良好，利用优秀市场策略增加了销售。大部分汉堡王餐厅的运营商当时经营不善，他们还助其扭亏为盈。2006年汉堡王再度上市。其老板可能希望再度私有化以规避短期股市压力，为其争取时间定策击败麦当劳。

If BK does go private, it may be part of a trend in the private-equity industry—now that some of the bigger firms have rediscovered their appetite for deals—of gobbling up the companies they had taken public during the bubble years but which are now trading cheaply. TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs still own a sizeable stake in BK, despite listing it on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006. However, it seems that other private-equity firms are interested in buying it. If that happens, no doubt BK servers will appreciate the irony: the act of passing a company from one private-equity firm to another is known in the business as ―flipping‖.

私人股本行业——如今一些大公司重新对收购有了兴趣——吞并那些他们在经济泡沫时代卖掉，现在十分廉价的公司，俨然已成一股大潮，如果汉堡王真的私有化，就将融入这股大潮之中。德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛虽然2006年在纽约证券交易所已经兜售了汉堡王，但他们仍握有可观的股份。然而，其他私人股本公司似乎也有意收购。要是真被他们收购，无疑汉堡王的服务生都能领会其中的讽刺：在私人股本公司中被倒卖，在做汉堡这行叫―翻面‖。

本主题由 shiyi18 于 2010-11-12 13:16 移动

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Down the slipway下水

―Quantitative easing‖ is unloved and unappreciated—but it is working

―量化宽松‖不受待见，但是有效

Nov 4th 2010 | Washington, dc

EVEN before the Federal Reserve unveiled its second round of quantitative easing (QE) on November 3rd, critics had already denounced it as ineffectual or an invitation to inflation. It cannot be both and it may not be either.

美联储的第二轮量化宽松政策在11月3日公布之前便已受到了各方抨击，有人说它不会起效，也有人说这样会导致通胀。这两者根本不可能同时发生，甚至一个都不会发生。

The announcement of ―QE2‖ was hardly breathtaking. The Fed said it will buy $600 billion of Treasuries between now and next June, at about $75 billion a month, although it also said it could adjust the amount and timing if need be. That was about what markets expected but far less than the $1.75 trillion of debt it bought between early 2009 and early 2010 in its first round of QE. Yet QE2 seems already to have exceeded the low expectations it has aroused. Since Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, hinted at it at Jackson Hole on August 27th, markets have all done exactly what they should (see chart).

第二轮量化宽松并没有惊人之处。美联储称，从现在起到明年6月，它将购买6 000亿美元美国国债，相当于每月购买750亿美元，但具体数字可能随情况进行调整。这一规模与市场预期相当，远低于2009年初至2010年初第一轮量化宽松（总共购买债务1.75万亿美元）。但第二轮量化宽松似乎已经超过了它所引起的低预期。自美联储主席本?伯南克于8月27日在杰克森霍尔（Jackson Hole）暗示这一计划以来，市场对此已有了充分的反映（见图）。

Under QE the Fed buys long-term bonds with newly created money. This lowers long-term yields and chases investors into riskier, alternative investments. The real yield on ten-year, inflation-indexed Treasury bonds has fallen from 1.05% to 0.5%, a result of relatively flat nominal yields and a rise in expected inflation. The yield on their five-year cousins is negative (see Buttonwood). Share prices are up by 14% in the same period. Lower yields make the dollar less appealing: it has duly fallen by 5% against the Japanese yen, by 9% against the euro and by 5% on a trade-weighted basis. ―You can declare QE to be a success already,‖ says one hedge-fund economist. ―Whether this translates into real activity remains a question-mark. But the question of whether the mechanism would work has been answered.‖

在量化宽松计划中，美联储将通过发行新钞买入长期债券。这压低了后者的收益率，使投资者转向风险更高的替代投资品。在名义收益率相对较平和预期通胀的双重作用下，10年期通胀指数化美国国债真实收益率从1.05%下降至0.5%。五年期品种则已呈现负利率（见本期Bottonwood）。同期，股票市场上涨了14%。收益率的下降使美元失去了吸引力：美元对日元下跌了5%，对欧元下跌了9%，从贸易加权角度看，则下跌了5%。一位对冲基金经济学家说：―可以说，量化宽松已经获得了成功。它能不能转化为实际行动还不好说。但其机制是否起作用已经毋庸置疑了。‖

With a bit of a lag, these easier financial conditions are supposed to boost growth through three channels. First, lower real yields spur borrowing and investment. This channel is bunged up: many households cannot borrow because their homes have fallen in value and because banks are less willing to lend. But the remaining two channels remain open. Higher share prices have raised household wealth by some $1.4 trillion, which will spur some spending. And the lower dollar should help trade. American factory purchasing managers reported a sharp jump in export orders in October and a drop in imports.

一般认为，宽松的金融环境将通过三个渠道提振经济增长（可能存在时滞）。第一，真实收益率下降能够刺激借贷与投资。这一渠道目前已经失去了作用：许多家庭因为房价下跌和银行不愿意借贷而无法得到贷款。但剩下的两个渠道仍然畅通。股价上涨已使家庭财富增加了1.4万亿美元，这将刺激支出。美元下跌则应该有利于贸易。美国工厂采购经理报告显示，10月份出口订单出现了大幅增长，进口则有所下降。

Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm, reckons that the Fed will eventually buy $1.5 trillion of debt under QE2, and that this will raise growth next year to 3.6% from 3.3% without QE. That‘s not exactly overwhelming: the firm thinks the Fed would have to buy $5.25 trillion of bonds to achieve the equivalent of a –4% federal-funds rate, which is what the economy needs. The Fed will not do that for fear of unknown consequences, among them the response of Congress‘s newly empowered Republicans. In a Bloomberg poll, 60% of self-identified tea-party supporters favoured overhauling or abolishing the Fed.

咨询公司Macroeconomic Advisers认为，美联储在第二轮量化宽松中将总共购买1.5万亿美元债务，使明年的经济增长率从3.3%（如果不实行量化宽松的话）提高到3.6%。这还不是最令人震惊的：该公司还认为，美国经济需要联邦基金利率下降到-4%的水平，要达到这一效果，美联储必须购买5.25万亿美元债券才行。要美联储抛出如此大手笔是不可能的，因为它害怕因此导致不可预料的后果，比如引起最近在国会中重掌大权的共和党人的激烈反应。彭博社（Bloomberg）的调查显示，60%自称茶党支持者的人赞成改组甚至取消美联储。

Could QE work too well and drive inflation expectations to dangerous levels? ―The odds aren‘t zero,‖ says Don Kohn, a former Fed vice-chairman, but they‘re small. There‘s more risk that expectations could rise once credit loosens up and spending accelerates. That, however, would be a signal that the Fed has succeeded; it can then tighten policy.

量化宽松会过犹不及、将通胀预期推高到危险水平吗？―并非不可能。‖前美联储副主席邓?考恩（Don Kohn）说，但可能性很小。更大的风险是通胀预期在信贷放松和支出增速之后抬头。但这正是美联储成功的信号，届时它已经可以采取紧缩措施了。

Other countries complain that QE is merely bringing them overvalued currencies and bubbly asset markets by pushing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. But that may be unavoidable given their divergent growth paths. Both India and Australia raised interest rates this week despite rising currencies.

其他国家抱怨量化宽松的唯一作用是，将美国投资者驱向其他国家寻找高收益，是当地货币升值并产生资产泡沫。但这是无论如何都不能避免的事情，因为各个国家的增长路径各不同。印度和澳大利亚本周均在本国货币升值的情况下提高了利率。

A damaging round of beggar-thy-neighbour currency interventions cannot be ruled out. But the Bank of Japan, after intervening directly to weaken the yen in September, has struck upon a more benign response. It had been scheduled to release details of its own QE at a regular policy meeting in mid-November but moved the date forward to this week. Analysts suspect this was to counteract upward pressure on the yen because of the Fed‘s move. If central banks all print money in unison, and don‘t mop up excess liquidity, then the result could be a worldwide monetary fillip. QE‘s benefits should not be over-egged. Nor should they be dismissed.

不能排除发生一种危险情况，那就是各国竞相采取以邻为壑的货币市场干预手段。日本银行在9月就曾经直接干预外汇市场使日元贬值，但这一回，日本银行的反应较为温和。原定11月中旬政策例会上宣布的日本量化宽松计划将提前至本周。分析师认为日本央行此举是为了缓和美联储动作给日元带来的升值压力。如果各国央行一起开动印钞机，而不顾流动性过剩

的后果，那么结果将是全球货币刺激。没有必要过分强调量化宽松的好处，但也不应该刻意贬低。

Opening stand 登场

Luck may play a big role in launching successful careers

上佳的运气是成功职业开端的一半

Nov 18th 2010

IN CRICKET batsmen often need a slice of luck to build a decent innings. Might that be true of cricketers‘ careers in general, and even of other jobs? In an IMF working paper Shekhar Aiyar and Rodney Ramcharan suggest that it is lucky for international cricketers to play their debut Test (international) match at home.

在板球比赛中，击球手通常需要点运气才能打出不错的击球局。所有板球选手都是这样吗？其他职业也是如此吗？在一篇IMF工作论文中，Shekhar Aiyar和Rodney Ramcharan提出，就（国际）对抗赛（Test）而言，能在主场上演职业生涯首秀对于板球选手来说是件幸事。

Playing at home means familiar pitches and climatic conditions, and a more supportive crowd (just ask the English cricketers whose series against Australia starts in Brisbane on November 25th). Sifting through the data on 790 cricketers who made their Test debuts between 1950 and 1985, the authors find that playing at home rather than away raises the average number of runs scored in their first series by 33% and reduces the runs that a bowler concedes by 18%.

主场作战意为着更熟悉的场地和天气状况，以及更高的观众支持率（关于这一点，11月25日做客布里斯班与澳大利亚进行系列赛的英格兰板球队队员将有切身体会）。通过分析1950至1985年间790位板球手在对抗赛处子秀上的表现，两位作者发现，主场作战平均能将处子系列赛得分―跑‖次数较客场提高33%，将被对方投手封杀的―跑‖的次数降低18%。

This would not be luck, of course, if team selectors deliberately give home debuts to better players. But first starts are often the result of random events such as the injury or poor performance of existing team members. By using age as a proxy for ability (assuming that younger players who force their way into international sides tend to be more talented), the authors find that the distribution of cricketers‘ ages is almost identical for home and away debuts.

当然，如果各队有意将主场处子秀的机会留给较为优秀的选手的话，那么出现上述结果就并非运气了。但处子秀本身是由一系列随机事件决定的：比如队友受伤或是状态低迷等。两位作者将年龄作为能力的一个代表因素（假设选手成功登上国际赛场的年龄越低，则其水平就越优秀），结果发现，板球选手主场处子秀年龄分布和客场没有区别。

A strong debut seems to lead to a shinier career. Every additional ten runs scored in a debut series adds an extra five runs to a player‘s career average. The effects of initial success are similar for bowlers. One possibility is that a good start builds confidence and experience that boosts future performance. A bad start, in contrast, is not easily forgiven: selectors appear to discard potentially high-ability players who had the misfortune to debut abroad.

篇三：《经济学人》英语热点文章精选8篇(中英文对照

（考研英语阅读原文很多来自《经济学人》，希望大家好好看看）

印度的救赎

IN MAY America’s Federal Reserve hinted that it would soon start to reduce its vast

purchases of Treasury bonds. As global investors adjusted to a world without ultra-cheap money, there has been a great sucking of funds from emerging markets. Currencies and shares have tumbled, from Brazil to Indonesia, but one country has been particularly badly hit.

今年五月，美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)暗示，它将很快开始缩减大量购买国债的规模。随着全球投资者开始调整策略，以适应没有超廉价资金的世界，大量资金开始逃离新兴市场。从巴西到印度尼西亚，货币及股票纷纷暴跌，但有一个国家受创尤其严重。

Not so long ago India was celebrated as an economic miracle. In 2008 Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, said growth of 8-9% was India’s new cruising speed. He even predicted the end of the ―chronic poverty, ignorance and disease, which has been the fate of millions of our countrymen for centuries‖. Today he admits the outlook is difficult. The rupee has tumbled by 13% in three months. The stockmarket is down by a quarter in dollar terms. Borrowing rates are at levels last seen after Lehman Brothers’ demise. Bank shares have sunk. 不久前，印度还以经济奇迹而闻名。2008年，该国总理曼莫汉·辛格(Manmohan Singh)表示，8%至9%的增长率是印度新的‖巡航速度‖。他甚至预测，‖几个世纪来一直是我们无数同胞宿命的长期贫困、愚昧和疾病‖将宣告结束。现在他承认，前景不容乐观。卢比3个月内下跌了13%。以美元计算，股市下跌了四分之一。借款利率已处于雷曼兄弟倒闭后的水平。银行股票一片暴跌。

On August 14th jumpy officials tightened capital controls in an attempt to stop locals taking money out of the country (seearticle). That scared foreign investors, who worry that India may freeze their funds too. The risk now is of a credit crunch and a self-fulfilling panic that pushes the rupee down much further, fuelling inflation. Policymakers recognise that the country is in its tightest spot since the balance-of-payments crisis of 1991.8月14日，紧张不安的官员收紧了资本控制，试图阻止当地人把钱转移到国外。这一举措吓到了外国投资者，他们担心印度可能也会冻结他们的资金。现在的风险是信贷紧缩，以及自我实现的恐慌，后者将进一步推动卢比下跌，从而推高通货膨胀。政策制定者承认，该国正处于1991年国际收支差额危机以来的最紧急时刻。

How to lose friends and alienate people

India’s troubles are caused partly by global forces beyond its control. But they are also the consequence of a deadly complacency that has led the country to miss a great opportunity. 如何失去盟友并疏远人民

印度的麻烦部分源于其控制范围之外的全球性力量。但同时，它们又是印度致命的自满情绪造成的，后者让该国错过了一个很好的机会。

During the 2003-08 boom, when reforms would have been relatively easy to introduce, the government failed to liberalise markets for labour, energy and land. Infrastructure was not improved enough. Graft and red tape got worse. 在2003至2008年的繁荣中，实施改革会相对容易，但政府未能让劳动力、能源和土地市场自由化，基础设施也没有得到足够的改善，贪污和官僚风气则更加猖獗。

Private companies have slashed investment. Growth has slowed to 4-5%, half the rate during the boom. Inflation, at 10%, is worse than in any other big economy. Tycoons who used to cheer India’s rise as a superpower now warn of civil uest. 如今，私营公司已削减了投资。经济增长率已放缓至4%至5%，只有繁荣时期的一半。通货膨胀达到10%，比任何其它大型经济体都严重。大亨们曾欢呼，印度将崛起成为一个超级大国，如今他们发出了关于国内动乱的警告。

As well as undermining 1.2 billion people’s hopes of prosperity, failure to reform dragged down the rupee. Restrictive labour laws and weak infrastructure make it hard for Indian firms to export. Inflation has led people to import gold to protect their savings. Both factors have swollen the current-account deficit, which must be financed by foreign capital. Add in the foreign debt that must be rolled over, and India needs to attract $250 billion in the next year, more than any other vulnerable emerging economy.未能改革不仅让12亿人对繁荣的希望破灭，它还导致卢比下跌。限制性的劳动法律和落后的基础设施让印度企业难以出口。通货膨胀促使人们进口黄金，以保护自己的储蓄。这两个因素都让国家的经常帐户赤字变得庞大，而这必须由外资提供资金。加上必须延缓付款的外债，印度明年需吸引2500亿美元，这超过了所有其它脆弱新兴经济体所需的规模。

A year ago the new finance minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, tried to kick-start the economy. He has attempted to push key reforms, clear bottlenecks and help foreign investors. But he has lukewarm support within his own party and faces obstructionist opposition. Obstacles to growth, such as fuel shortages for power plants, remain. Foreign firms find nothing has changed. Meanwhile, bad debts have risen at state-run banks: 10-12% of their loans are dud. With an election due by May 2014, some fear that the Congress-led government will now take a more populist tack. A costly plan to subsidise food hints at this. 一年前，新的财政部长帕拉尼亚潘·奇丹巴拉姆(Palaniappan

Chidambaram)试图强力推动经济。他努力推进关键性改革，清除发展瓶颈，为外国投资者提供帮助。但他在本党内得不到有力的支持，且面临着阻挠者的反对。发电厂的燃料短缺等增长障碍仍然存在。外国企业发现，一切都没有改变。同时，国有银行的坏账已大大增加，10%到12%的贷款已成为坏账。随着2014年5月大选的临近，一些人担心，现在这个由国大党领导的政府将采取更民粹主义的行动方针。一个耗资巨大的食品补贴计划正暗示了这一点。

Stopping the rot

To prevent a slide into crisis, the government needs first to stop making things worse. Those capital controls backfired, yet the urge to tinker runs deep: on August 19th officials slapped duties on televisions lugged in through airports. The authorities must accept that 2013 is not 1991. Then the state nearly bankrupted itself trying to defend a pegged exchange rate. Now the rupee floats, and the state has no foreign debt to speak of. A weaker currency will break some firms with foreign loans, but poses no direct threat to the government’s solvency.

停止衰败

为了防止陷入危机，政府首先需要制止形势继续恶化。资本控制的结果事与愿违，而修修补补的冲动却根深蒂固。当局必须接受的是，现在是2013年，而非1991年。当时，为了稳住盯住美元汇率制度，印度政府几乎破产。现在卢比在浮动，但国家却已没有值得担忧的外债。疲软的货币将让一些有国外贷款的企业破产，但对政府的偿付能力却没有直接威胁。 And so the Reserve Bank of India must let the rupee find its own level. The currency has not yet wildly overshot estimates of fundamental value. RaghuramRajan, the central

bank’s incoming head, should aim to control inflation, not micromanage one of the world’s most traded currencies. 因此，印度储备银行(Reserve Bank of India)必须让卢比自己定位。该货币尚未过分超出对其基本价值的估测。该央行即将上任的行长格赫拉姆·拉扬

(RaghuramRajan)应把目标放在控制通货膨胀上，而不是微观管理这个全球交易量最大的货币之一。

Second, the government must get its finances in order. The budget deficit has been as high as 10% of GDP in recent years. This year the government must hold down its deficit (including those of individual states) to 7% of GDP. It is already cutting fuel subsidies, and—notwithstanding the pressures in the run-up to an election—should do so faster. 其次，政府必须让其财政回到正轨。最近几年，印度预算赤字已高达国内生产总值(GDP)的10%。今年，政府必须让其赤字（包括各邦的赤字）有所下降，达到国内生产总值的7%。政府已经在削减燃油补贴，而且应该更快进行，哪怕有大选的压力。

This is not enough to fix the government’s finances, though. Only 3% of Indians pay

income tax, so the government’s tax take is puny. A proposed tax on goods and services,

known as GST, would drag more of the economy into the net. It is stuck in endless cross-party talks. If the government can rally itself before the election to push for one long-term reform, this is the one it should go for. 虽然，要改善政府的财政状况，这还是不够的。只有3%的印度人缴纳所得税，因此，政府的税收收入极少。拟议中对商品和服务征收的消费税(GST)将会让更多的经济纳入税收体系之中。但该税收方案却因无休止的两党会谈而遥遥无期。如果政府能够在大选前团结起来，推动长期的改革，那么上述税收改革就是政府应该努力的方向。

Last, the government, with the central bank, should force the zombie public-sector banks to recapitalise. In 2009 America did ―stress tests‖ to repair its banks. India should follow. Injecting funds into banks would widen the deficit, but the surge in confidence would be worth it.最后，政府和中央银行应迫使僵化的国有银行进行资本重组。2009年，美国为恢复其银行状况，进行了‖压力测试‖。印度也应该效仿之。向银行注入资金会扩大赤字，但这样会让信心大增，这一结果是值得的。

There are glimmers of hope: exports picked up in July, narrowing the trade gap. But India faces a difficult year, with jittery global markets and an election to boot. Even if it scrapes past the election without a full-blown financial crisis, the next government must do much, much more to change India. Over the coming decade tens of millions of young people will have to find jobs where none currently exists. Generating the growth to create them will mean radical deregulation of protected sectors (of which retail is only the most obvious); breaking up state monopolies, from coal to railways; reforming restrictive labour laws; and overhauling India’s infrastructure of roads, ports and power. 希望的曙光是存在的，7月的出口已有所回升，缩小了贸易差额。但印度面临着困难的一年，全球市场紧张不安，而大选又即将展开。即使在没有全面爆发金融危机的情况下大选顺利结束，下届政府也必须要做更多努力，才能改变印度。在未来十年内，数百万年轻人将需要就业机会，但当前毫无新工作机会可言。为创造就业机会而促进增长，这将意味着要对受保护的部门（其中零售业是最明显的）彻底放松管制，从煤炭到铁路都要打破国家垄断，此外还要改革限制性的劳动法，并对印度的道路、港口和电力基础设施进行大幅改善。

The calamity of 1991 led to liberalising reforms that ended decades of stagnation and allowed a spurt of fast growth. This latest brush with disaster could produce a positive legacy, too, but only if it persuades voters and the next government of the importance of a new round of reforms that deal with the economy’s flaws and unleash its mighty

potential.1991年的灾难带来了自由化改革，这一改革结束了几十年的经济停滞，并促成了井喷式的快速增长。这次的灾难威胁也可能带来好的影响，但前提是它能让选民和下届政府认识到新一轮改革的重要性，让改革解决该经济的缺陷，并释放其巨大的潜力。

The adidas method

阿迪达斯模式

A German firm’s unusual approach to designing its products

TEN years ago sportswear-makers were cramming ever more features and futuristic

designs into their products. They were convinced that the consumer bought, say, training shoes based on their technical specifications. But in 2004 James Carnes, today adidas’s creative director for sportswear, and a Danish consultant named Mikkel Rasmussen met at a conference in Oslo at which Mr Rasmussen challenged this notion. A mobile phone, he said, may have 72 functions, but that is 50 more than most people wanted, or used.十年前，运动用品生产商们一直往产品中填塞更多的功能和前卫设计。它们深信，消费者愿意购买它们的产品，比如训练鞋，是因为它们的技术规格。但在 2004年，现任阿迪达斯(adidas)运动创意总监詹姆斯·卡恩斯(James Carnes)在奥斯陆的一次会议上遇见了丹麦顾问麦克尔·拉斯穆森(Mikkel Rasmussen)，此次会议上，拉斯穆森对卡恩斯的观点提出了质疑。他称，一部手机可能有72个功能，但其中有50多个是大多数人不想用或不会用的功能。

Mr Carnes was intrigued, and so began an almost decade-long engagement for ReD, the small consultancy Mr Rasmussen co-founded in Copenhagen. In that decade adidas’s sales and share price have grown steadily, alongside those of Nike, an American firm that is the global leader in sportswear (see chart). It remains far ahead of Puma, its crosstown rival. The two German firms, based in Herzogenaurach in Bavaria, were founded by brothers, AdiDassler (hence adidas’s name) and the older Rudolf (Puma), who fell out.这引起了卡恩斯的兴趣，于是在此后的十多年里，他开始与小型顾问公司ReD合作，该公司是由拉斯穆森在哥本哈根与他人共同创办的。其间，阿迪达斯的销售额及股价稳步增长，而全球运动用品领导品牌美国的耐克(Nike)也与其并驾齐驱。

但它仍然遥遥领先于位于同城市另一区的竞

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