《BP世界能源统计年鉴》2014

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

June 2014

BP世界能源统计年鉴

2014年6月

42bc3c6216fc700abb68fce2/statisticalreview #BPstats

Energy in 2013: T aking stoc k

2013能源市场：消费增长，库存支撑

Introduction

引言

Energy and the economy

能源和经济

Fuel by fuel

各类燃料的发展状况

Conclusion

结语

Christof Rühl.16 June 2014

克里斯托夫·鲁尔2014年6

月?BP 2014

Energy in 2013: Taking s t o ck

2013能源市场：

消费增长，库存支撑

Energy demand and pr i ces

Primary energy c ons umpt i on Billion toe

8

$2013/bo e

120

Inflation adjusted pr i ces

O u t lin e

? Int rod uc t i on

? Energy and the ec onom y ? Fuel by fu el

O E CD 7

Non-O EC D

6 5 4

3

1993

1998

2003

2008

2013

Oil B r e n t 90 Gas European s po t Gas US Coal b ask et

60

30

1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

? Concluding re m a r ks

Source: includes data from ICIS Heren Energy, Energy Intelligence Group, IHS McCloskey and Platts

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能源需求和价格

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10亿吨油当量 8

一次能源需求

扣除通胀因素后的价格

2013美元价格/桶油当量 120 经合组织国家

7 非经合组织国家

6

5 目录

4

石油（布伦特）

90 天然气（欧洲现货价格） 天然气（美国） 煤炭（一揽子价格）

60

30

? 引言 3

1993 1998

2003

2008

2013

1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

? 能源和经济

? 各类燃料的发展状况 ? 结语

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来源: 包括来自C S Heren E n e r g y, Energy nt e llig e nce Gr o u p , IHS McCloskey and 普氏（Platt s ）的数据

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To begin with, let ’s step back a lit tle.

首先，稍作回顾。

Ten years ago, the energy world looked rather dif f erent. Much of what we took for granted has changed. It is always a good first step to look back at where you came from bef ore assessing today. What have been some of the major changes over the past decade?

十年前，能源世界大为不同。很多我们当时认为理所当 然的事也已改变。在审视今天之前，对历史稍作回顾向来是 好的第一步。那么，过去十年里发生了哪些重大改变？

In t r odu c t i on

引言

The purpose of this review has always been to provide objective data on global energy developments; and to chronicle changes in global energy markets year by year, in as rigorous a fashion as possible. Here is last year ’s chapter.

本年鉴的宗旨一如既往地在于提供全球能源发展动态的 客观数据；并竭尽所能严谨地逐年记录全球能源市场的变

化。本文讲述去年的能源动态。

Ten years ago, the developing world, classified here as non-OECD economies, had started to embark on a period of rapid economic growth (the term BRICs was coined in 2001). From 2001 onward, this showed up as an ―energy gap ‖ – global energy demand growth became dominated by the non-OECD; in 2008, it overtook the OECD. China, rightly or wrongly, came to symbolize this ascent, overtaking the EU in 2007, the US in 2010 and the whole of North America last year. Many would have found this hard to believe ten years ago.

十年前，本文归类为非经合组织经济体的发展中国家开 始进入经济快速增长期（2001年―金砖国家‖一词出现）。 自2001年以来，这种增长体现出―能源缺口‖——非经合组 织主导着全球能源需求的增长；2008年，非经合组织的需 求增长超过经合组织。中国成为上述需求增长的标志，姑且 不论正确与否，其能源需求在2007年超过欧盟，2010年超过

BP 世界能源统计2014年6月 1

美国，去年则超过整个北美。十年前，许多人会觉得此事难 以置信。

Energy markets are huge and the supply response can be sluggish. So prices started to rise and to perge. Oil prices rose the fastest, of course, but many of the implications are easily forgotten: today, we think of oil prices above $100 as normal, and many an analyst remains gainfully employed by investigating gas price spreads – an activity which w ould

not have attracted much attention ten years ago.

能源市场非常庞大，供应侧反应可能缓慢。因此，价格 开始攀升——并呈现差异化。石油价格当然上涨最快，但很 多影响容易被遗忘：今天，我们认为石油价格超过100美元 是正常现象，许多分析师被高薪聘请，致力于研究天然气价 差——这项工作在10年前不会如此受到关注。

Reserves and new sources of energy s upply

Perceptions change, not only about reserves. A supply response always existed but it became widely recognized only after it triggered the emergence of ―n ew ‖ sources of supply. The biggest item on this list has to be the emergence of unconventional oil and gas resources. That this w ould happen in the competitive energy world of North America makes perfect economic sense, in retrospect. But who would have thought?

各种认知发生变化，不仅是对储量的认知。供应侧的反

应始终存在，但只有在其导致出现―新‖供应来源后才会得 到

普遍认识。在这方面，规模最大的新供应来源当然是非常 规油气资源。回头来看，非常规油气资源开发出现在高度竞 争的北美能源行业完全符合经济理论。但此前又有谁能够未 卜先知呢？ If we loosely group together fuels that we may classify

as ―n ew ‖, simply by virtue of having not been around a decade ago, including renewables motivated by newly f ound

Oil r es erves

T r illio n bb ls 2.0 O t he r

North Am e r i ca

Gas r es er ves

Tc m 200

Energy production growth 2013

A nnua l change, M t oe

50

100

150

climate change policies (and high fossil fuel prices), the y accounted for 81% of global primary energy production growth last year. 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4

0.0 FS U OPEC

160

120 80 40

R en ew ab l es *

US g as US o il World t o t a l

如果我们将可归类为―新燃料‖的各种燃料进行大致汇 总，其定义就是十年前尚不存在的燃料，而且包括由新出台 的气候变化政策（及居高不下的化石燃料价格）推动产生的 可再生能源，―新燃料‖去年在全球一次能源生产增长中的 1983 1998 2013 1983 1998 2013

* Includes bi of uels

储量和新型供应源

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比重为81%。

Time to look at this in more detail.

现在可以进行更详细的分析。

万亿桶 石油储量

天然气储量

万亿立方米

2013年能源产量增长

年度变化，百万吨油当量

2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4

其他 北美洲 前苏联

石油输出国组织

200

160 120 80

40

可再生能源* 美国天然气 美国石油

0 50 100

150

0.0

0 总计

1983 1998 2013 1983 1998 2013

* 包括生物燃料

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One trend that has not changed is reserves growth. It was always one of our more popular statistics, but saying that proved reserves had increased, after yet another year of rapid oil, gas or coal consumption growth, created a lot more disbelief then than now. But increase they did: proved oil and gas reserves are up 27% and 19%, respectively, over the last ten years alone – despite production growth of 11% and 29%.

没有改变的一个趋势是储量的增长。储量一直是较受欢 迎的统计数据，但在石油、天然气和煤炭消费经历了又一年 的迅猛增长后，提出探明储量有所增加的说法在当时引起的 质疑远多于现在。但储量的确在增长：仅以过去的十年而 论，石油和天然气的探明储量分别增加27%和19%——尽管 产量增幅为11%和29%。

2

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Energy and the ec ono m y

能源和经济

Energy and the ec onomy

possible to combine economic growth with stagnant or

falling energy consumption.

在过去十年里，虽然经合组织的经济增长为18%，但其

能源消费保持平稳。如果我们对一个特别合适的数据子集进

行分析，即欧盟当前28个成员国去年的累计经济增长为

54%，但能源消费却降至1988年的水平，——这里不难提

A nnua l change, %

10%

GDP grow t h Energy and GDP in 2013

A nnua l change, %

8%

出一个耐人寻味的问题，是否可能，或在什么情况下，可以

在经济增长的同时使能源消费滞缓或有所下降？

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

Non-OE C D

6%

4%

2%

OECD

Meanwhile in the non-OECD, stronger economic gro wth

and industrialization necessitated continued consumption

growth before, during and after the crisis. The relationship

between economic and energy growth was quite similar in -4%0%

GDP Energy GDP E ne r gy the OECD and non-OECD the ten years before the crisis.

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics

Note: GDP gr ow t h based on Purchasing P ow e r Pa ri t y measure of GDP

能源和经济

GDP 增长

年度变化,%

10%

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Energy and GDP in 2013

年度变化,%

8%

After the crisis, and presumably related to large, energy

intensive fiscal stimuli elsewhere, energy intensity improved

faster in the OECD.

在非经合组织，较为强劲的经济增长和工业化使能源消

费在危机之前、期间和过后保持持续增长。在爆发危机前的

十年，经合组织与非经合组织各自的经济与能源增长之间的

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

非经合组织

6%

4%

2%

经合组织关系非常类似。在危机爆发后，可能是在大规模、改善能源

强度的财政刺激影响下，经合组织的能源强度改善更快。

2013 broke this pattern. Global primary energy

consumption accelerated from 1.8% to 2.3%, just a tic k

-4%0%

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013GDP 能源GDP 能源

below the ten year a v erage[2.5% p.a.] and despite slackening

economic growth. For the two subgroups, fortunes perged.

来源: 包括来自牛津经济研究院的数据

备注:GDP增长率是基于购买力平价（PPP）的数据计算

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2013年打破了这种模式。虽然经济增长疲软，但全球一Global economic growth has been softening since 2010,

the year of big economic stimuli. Last year it was 3%, a lit tle

weaker than 2012, and considerably below its ten year

average [3.7% p.a.], which now includes the years of boom

and bust before and after the economic crisis. Economic

performance softened in the OECD and non-OECD alike, but

the economic ―gr owth gap‖between them has nar ro w ed

since the crisis.

2010年实行大规模经济刺激，之后全球经济增长放缓。

去年的增速为3%，略低于2012年，远低于过去十年平均

水平[3.7%]，这十年包括了经济危机前后的繁荣与萧条年份。

经合组织与非经合组织的经济状况均显疲软，但两者间经

济―增长差距‖自危机以来有所缩小。

Energy consumption followed economic growth, but

with a t wist.

次能源消费加速增长，从1.8%增至2.3%，仅略低于十年

平均水平[2.5%]。对于两个群体而言，命运迥异。

OECD energy demand rose by 1.2%, offsetting an equal

decline the previous year, despite slowing and lacklustre

economic performance – almost on a par with GDP gro wth

[1.3%]. Non-OECD energy consumption, in contrast, gre w

by only 3.1%, the slowest rate for 13 years, except for the

crisis year 2009 –and substantially below GDP gro wth

[4.8%].

尽管经济状况疲软无力且乏善可陈，经合组织的能源需

求仍增长1.2%，抵消了此前一年同等幅度的下滑，几乎与

国内生产总值增长持平[1.3%]。与之对照，非经合组织的能

源消费仅增长3.1%，在过去的13年里，这是除2009年危机

年份外的最低增速，而且远低于国内生产总值的增长[4.8%]。

Energy consumption in 2013

能源消费与经济增长的趋势一致，但其间出现过一次波

动。Growth by r e gion

A nnua l change, %

-3% 0% 3% 6% 9%

Growth by f ue l

A nnua l change, %

Energy consumption growth in the OECD has been flat

over the last ten years, despite economic growth of 18%.

And, if we take a particularly fitting sub-set, energy

consumption in today’s 28 member states of the European

Union last year was back at the level of 1988, despite

16.3%

cumulative economic growth of 54% – raising the intriguing

question whether, or under which circumstances, it may be

e

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2013年能源消费 growth. We will discuss the details in a minute.

即使只看全球燃料需求总量，上述效应也显而易见。中

国造成了煤炭需求增长的相对疲软，而美国推动了石油需求 分区域增长

年度变化, %

年度变化, %

分燃料增长

保持较为强劲的增长。本文稍后将进行详细讨论。

-3% 0% 3% 6% 9%

16.3%

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All told, the perging performance of China and the US caused the ―energy gap ‖ between non-OECD and OECD energy consumption growth to narrow sharply. It became the smallest since 2000.

总而言之，中美之间截然不同的表现使非经合组织与经 合组织的能源消费增长之间的―能源缺口‖大幅缩小，达到 2000年以来的最低水平。

North A me ric a, the only region globally to show abo v e- average growth, drove the OECD acceleration, with energy demand growing even faster than GDP . The non-OECD slowdown was concentrated in Asia, with energy consumption growth below 4% for only the second time in 12 years, while economic growth held steady [5.2%].

作为能源需求增长高出平均水平的全球唯一区域，北美 推动了经合组织需求的加速增长，北美能源需求的增速甚至 超过了国内生产总值的增长。非经合组织的增速放缓主要体 现在亚洲，其能源消费增长在过去12年中第二次出现低于

4%的水平，而经济增长保持稳定[5.2%]。

The contrasting experiences of North America and Asia Pacific reflect the differing fortunes of the world ’s largest energy consumers, China and the US . Together, they account for more than 70% of world energy consumption gro wth.

北美和亚太地区的鲜明对照反映出世界最大的能源消费 国——中国和美国的不同发展轨迹。中美两国的能源消费增 长之和占全球增长的70%以上[72.52%]。

In 2013 Chinese energy growth slipped from 7.0% to

4.7%, and thus well below its ten year trend [8.6% p.a.] – although the People ’s Republic reported unchanged economic growth of 7.7%. The slowdown in Chinese gro wth was concentrated in coal but is visible in oil as w ell. Meanwhile, US primary energy consumption grew by 2.9%, rebounding from a 2.8% decline in 2012. Much of this is due to weather effects; but beyond the weather, there are signs of underlying strength in US industrial sector energy use, in particular of oil products.

2013年，中国的能源消费增长从7.0%降至4.7%，因而远 低于其十年趋势水平[年均8.6%]——尽管中国所报告的经济 增长仍高达7.7%。中国的能源消费增长放缓主要体现在煤炭 领域，但也包括石油消费。美国的一次能源消费增长2.9%， 继2012年下滑2.8%后出现反弹。这种增长在很大程度上源 自天气因素；但除天气之外，美国工业部门的能源消费出现 根本性的增长迹象，特别是对石油产品的需求反弹。

The effects are visible, even if we only look at global fuel aggregates. China is responsible for the relative weakness of coal growth, and the US for the relative strength of oil

What can the energy data tell us? Are these data points a harbinger of things to come or just an aber ration? Too early to tell is the appropriate answer. In our textbooks, energy demand is the consequence of economic growth. In reality, where data measurement is less than perfect, energy data often allows for conclusions about real economic activity. In the present context, it is easy to see how abundant domestic resources in the US would eventually give a boost to the economy, not just to energy demand. It is much harder to see how the fundamental restructuring underway in China could leave an imprint only on energy demand without, eventually, affecting economic performance as w ell.

上述能源数据能够揭示什么要素？这些数据是未来发展 的预兆还是偶尔出现的偏差？正确的答案是现在下结论为时 过早。在教科书中，能源需求是经济发展的结果。在现实 中，尽管数据测量并非完美，但能源数据通常有助于对实体 经济活动作出结论。在当前背景下，不难看出美国富饶的国

内资源将如何最终推动经济发展，而不仅是拉高能源需求。 更难以琢磨的是，中国方兴未艾的基本结构调整如何可以只

改变能源需求，而不会最终影响经济绩效。

Let ’s look at these developments fuel by fuel.

让我们根据各种燃料对上述动态进行分析。

4

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Fuel by f ue l

各种燃料

O il

石油

The oil market in 2013

增长——这与2012年的动态恰好相反。因此库存量下滑。

And 2013 was yet another year of turbulence in oil production. We are all familiar with the ongoing story of rapid growth in the US; but it was also yet another year of significant supply disruptions, most notably in North Africa and the Middle East.

2013年还是石油生产出现动荡的又一个年头。我们对美

国产量迅猛增长的故事耳熟能详，但2013年也再次出现严重 的供应减产，尤以北非和中东为甚。

$/bbl

Oil prices and vola t ilit y

V o l a ti li ty *

Production and consumption grow t h

A nnua l change, M b/d

So why did prices remain so stable? We will investigate 120

100

80

60

40

20

Price volatility (R HS) Oil p r ic e

90%

75%

60%

45%

30%

15% 0% 2.5

2.0

1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Pr odu c t i on

in detail, starting with global oil consumption.

那么，价格何以保持稳定？我们将详细探究，首先来看 全球石油消费情况。

1969

1980

1991

2002

2013

2012

2013

Oil consumption

Source: includes data from Platts * T hree year standard deviation

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Mb /d 55 50

Oil c ons umption

OECD

Non-O EC D

K b /d

Largest changes in 2013

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 US 2013年石油市场

石油价格和波动

美元/桶 120 价格波动（右轴） 100 石油价格

80

60 40 20

波动* 90% 75% 60% 45% 30%

15%

产量和消费增长

年度变化，百万桶/日 2.5

2.0

1.5 1.0 0.5

45

40 35 30 25 20

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Ch i n a Br a z il Russ i a S. A r a b ia

It a ly M exi c o Is r ae l

Spa i n

J apan

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0% 1969

1980

1991

2002

2013

0.0石油消费

2012

2013

来源: 包括来自普氏(P la tts )的数据 * 三年数据的标准差

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百万桶/日 55

石油消费

千桶/日

2013年变化最大的国家

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400

Oil prices over the last three years have been high but remarkably stable. In 2013, they dipped slightly, with Dated Brent averaging almost $109 [$108.66], $3 below t he a v erage of 2011 and 2012.This has been the third consecutive year of prices above $100, a first in both real and nominal terms; and it has been the three year period with the lo w est price volatility since 1970. 经合组织国家 非经合组织国家

50 45 40 35 30 25 20

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

美国 中国 巴西 俄罗

斯

沙特阿拉伯

意大利 墨西哥 以色列 西班牙 日本

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在过去三年里，石油价格居高不下但非常稳定。2013 年，油价略微下跌，布伦特现货均价接近109美元[108.66美 元]，比2011年和2012年的平均价格低出3美元。石油价格连 续第三年超过100美元，而实际及名义油价首度双双突破

100美元大关；这三年是1970年以来油价波动幅度最小的时 期。

The stability in oil prices betrays significant changes in the underlying balance between consumption and

production. In 2013, global consumption growth exceeded

production growth by a wide margin —the exact opposite of

the dynamics in 2012. As a result, inventories f ell.

稳定的石油价格没有体现出消费及生产之间基本平衡状 况发生的重大变化。2013年，全球消费增长远远超过生产

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Global oil consumption last year rose by 1.4 Mb/d in 2013, or 1.4%, higher than both 2012 and the ten year average. As has become the norm, growth was driven by the emerging economies of the non-OECD, which for the first time accounted for the majority of global consumption. OECD demand remained stagnant.

2013年，全球石油消费增长140万桶/日，即1.4%，高于 2012年的增长率及过去十年的平均水平。正如司空见惯的情

况一样，增长的驱动因素是非经合组织的新兴经济体，它们

在全球消费中的比重首次居多。经合组织的需求仍然停滞不

前。

In the OECD, the US stood out as its consumption gre w by 400 Kb/d, the fastest growth of any country last year –

and (in volume terms) outpacing China for the first time since

1999. In contrast, consumption in the rest of the OECD f ell

by a larger than average 380 Kb/d, led by a 160 Kb/d decline

in Japan, where oil was backed out of power generation by

renewables, coal and improved efficiency. European

分产品的石油消费量

2013年各类产品增幅

千桶/日

600

千桶/日

2013年美国增幅

-100 0 100 200 consumption dropped by 130 Kb/d, with the largest declines

seen in the countries most affected by the recession, such

as Spain, Italy and Greece.

400

200

中质馏分油

汽油

10年平均

液化石油气* 和石脑油

汽油中质馏

分油

就经合组织而言，美国脱颖而出，消费增长 40 万其他

-200

桶/日，为去年增速最快的国家——（按量计算）自1999年

以来首度超过中国。与此对照，其他经合组织经济体的消费

降幅超过平均水平，为38万桶/日，日本首当其冲地减少

16

非经合组织国家经合组织国家

* 包括乙烷

10年平均

BP世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

万桶/日，其原因包括可再生能源和煤炭在发电行业中挤占

了石油的份额，以及能效有所提高。欧洲的消费下降13

万

桶/日，受衰退影响最大的国家跌幅最大，例如西班牙、意

大利和希腊。

Non-OECD consumption rose by 1.4 Mb/d or 3.1%, w ell

below the ten year average [3.9% p.a.]. This weakness w as

especially pronounced in China, where demand grew by only

390 Kb/d – the lowest since the recession in 2009. Gro wth

in India [40 Kb/d] fell to its lowest level since 2001 as

subsidies were reduced while in the Middle East, gro wth

was limited by civil unrest and rising use of natural gas in

Saudi Arabia’s power sector.

非经合组织的消费增长140万桶/日，即 3.1%，远低于

十年平均水平[3.9%]。中国的消费疲态最为明显，需求仅增

加

39万桶/日——为2009年发生经济衰退以来的最低水平。印

度在削减补贴后，增幅[4万桶/日]降至2001年以来的最低

水平，而中东地区的增长受到内部动乱及沙特发电部门增加

天然气使用等因素的制约。

So far in 2014, global oil demand growth has been slo w er

due to more modest demand growth in the US and a further

slowdown in China.

2014年迄今为止，由于美国需求的增长幅度减小及中国

需求的进一步放缓，全球石油需求增长减速。

Oil consumption by pr oduc t

A review of oil consumption by product can help to

identify underlying economic forces. Light distillates, such as

gasoline, more dependent on prices, were the f astest

growing product category for the second consecutive year

[620 Kb/d], whereas middle distillates, more dependent on

economic activity, grew only slowly [490 Kb/d]. The main

driver of light distillate growth was strong gasoline demand

in the non-OECD; OECD gasoline consumption registered a

rare, small increase. The slowdown in middle distillate

demand growth was again entirely driven by the developing

world where growth almost halved [to 350 Kb/d from 660

Kb/d in 2012]. And within this group it was again China whic h

accounted for by far the largest part of the slo w do wn.

按各种石油产品对石油消费进行评估有助于确定基本的

经济因素。对价格依赖较强的汽油等轻质馏分油连续第二年

成为增长最快的石油产品类别[62万桶/日]，而对经济活动

依赖较强的中质馏分油仅呈现缓慢增长[49万桶/日]。轻质

馏分油增长的主要驱动因素是非经合组织强劲的汽油需求；

经合组织的汽油消费呈现难得一见的小幅增长。中质馏分油

需求放缓的驱动因素仍是发展中国家，这些国家的增长几乎

减半[从2012年66万桶/日降至35万桶/日]。在这一国家组

别中，需求减缓仍然主要源自中国。

Distinguishing by product category also helps t o

disentangle the question why the US saw such a dramatic

increase in oil consumption last year – up 400 Kb/d, against

an average annual decline of 110 Kb/d over the last ten years.

This cannot be explained by economic growth which slo w ed

from 2.8% to 1.9% last year. The rise was focused in the

industrial sector, including refining and petrochemicals, K b/d

Growth by product type in 2013

K b/d

US growth in 2013which contributed almost 80% of net growth [310 Kb/d].

600

400

200

-200

Mid d le

d i s ti ll a t

e s

Gas o lin e

10 year

aver a g e

-100 0 100 200

L PG* and na p ht h a

Gas o lin e

Middle d is t illa t es

O t he r

Much of this growth was for light products [in particular

LPG], facilitated by the robust growth of domestic natural

gas liquids, which has driven down prices significantly over

the last few years.

按产品类别进行区分还有助于解析美国去年的石油消费Non-OECD OECD

* Includes ethane BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy

? BP 2014

激增现象——增加40万桶/日，而在过去十年里则年均减少

11万桶/日。经济增长无法解释这一现象，因为美国去年的

经济增长从2.8%降至1.9%。石油消费增长集中在工业部

门，包括炼油和石化行业，工业部门在净增长中所占比重接

近80%[31万桶/日]。这种增长主要集中在轻质石油产品[特别

是液化石油气]，这得益于美国国内天然气液体产品在过去6 BP世界能源统计2014年6月

BP 世界能源统计2014年6月

7

几年的强劲增长促使价格出现大幅下跌。

Oil pr oduc t i on

for itself. Average OPEC crude production was near the group ’s 30 Mb/d production ceiling, which has been in place since December 2011.

M b /d

Largest changes in 2013

Largest oil production inc r eases

A nnua l change, M b /d

与此同时，石油输出国组织的产量减少60万桶/日。除 了稍后将讨论的意外供应减产外，沙特继2012年创下产量纪

-1.0

-0.5 0.0

0.5 1.0

US

Saudi 1991 0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

录后减产11万桶/日。阿联酋的产量则实现新高，增长[25万 Non

ia

I Li b ya

石油生产

UA E

Saudi 1986

Saudi 1976 Saudi 1990 Saudi 1979

Saudi 2003 Saudi 1988 US 2013 Iran 1982

Libya 2012 US 2012

BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy

? BP 2014

桶/日]，但仅部分抵消了石油输出国组织的产量下滑。石油 输出国组织的平均原油产量接近该组织自2011年12月设定的 3000万桶/日生产上限。

US oil production exceeded 10 Mb/d in 2013, reaching the highest level since 1986. Driven by tight oil plays, US production rose by over 1.1 Mb/d in 2013 – the second consecutive year of above 1 Mb/d of supply growth, and the second consecutive ―bigges t increase in US history ‖. Indeed, only Saudi Arabia has ever had a bigger increase than the US 百万桶/日 2013年变化最大的国家

石油生产增长排序

年度变化, 百万桶/日

in 2013 – nine times in total, to be precise; but in six of those -1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5 1.0

美国阿联酋 加拿大 俄罗斯

0.0 0.5

1.0 1.5

2.0

1991

1973 1986 1976 1990 1979 1972 2003 nine times the increment resulted from the ability to tap existing spare production capacity. In terms of ―organic‖ growth, based on capacity expansion, last year ’s US increase therefore was the fourth biggest in history.

利比亚

1988 2013 1982 2011 2012 2012

? BP 2014

2013年，美国的石油产量突破1000万桶/日，达到1986 年以来的最高水平。在致密油藏的推动下，2013年的

美国产 量增加110多万桶/日——供应量增长连续第二年超

过100万

Turning to production, 2013 can once again be

characterized as a tale of major supply disruptions and of

historic US growth. We will address these in turn af

ter

reviewing the data.

在生产方面，2013年的特点还是严重的供应减产及美国 的创纪录增长。我们在评估数据后将进行逐一分析。 Global output rose slightly in 2013 [560 Kb/d], due to the largest increase in non-OPEC countries [1.2 Mb/d] since 2002. The main contributor to this growth was the US, but supplies also grew in Canada and Russia. Russia [150 Kb/d]

posted a record high for the post-Soviet era. Canadian production [210 Kb/d] reached an all-time high due to continued oil sands growth. These increases more than offset continued declines in mature areas such as the North Sea [UK and Norway, -80 Kb/d each].

由于非石油输出国组织实现2002年以来的最大增产

[120 万桶/日]，2013年的全球产量略有增加[56万桶/日]。上述增 长的主要贡献者是美国，但加拿大和俄罗斯的供应也有所增 加。俄罗斯[15万桶/日]实现了后苏联时代的产量新高。加拿 大的产量[21万桶/日]在油砂持续增长的推动下达到历史最 高水平。这些增量超过了北海[英国和挪威，各减产 8万 桶/日]等成熟产油区域产量的持续减量。

Meanwhile, OPEC production contracted by 600 Kb/d. In addition to unplanned disruptions which we will discuss in a 桶/日，连续第二次实现―美国历史上的最大增产‖。实际

上，仅沙特曾超过美国2013年的生产增量——准确而言，共

有9次超过上述增量；但9次中的6次是依靠挖掘现有闲置产

能。就基于产能扩建的―内生‖增长而言，美国去年的增长

在历史上排名第四。 So far this year, US production growth has been even stronger [nearly 1.3 Mb/d, year-on-year]. OPEC crude output

has fallen further, averaging well below 30 Mb/d and largely due to the ongoing sharp decline in Libyan output.

今年迄今为止，美国的产量增长更为强劲[同比增加近 130万桶/日]。石油输出国组织的原油产量进一步下滑，平 均来看远低于3000万桶/日的水平，这主要是由于利比亚产 量持续出现急剧下滑。

O il s upply di s r upt i ons

Cumulative change since 4Q10, M b /d 4

3

2

1

0 -1 -2 -3

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

minute, Saudi Arabia cut output by 110 Kb/d after producing at record levels in 2012. The declines were only partly offset by an increase in the UAE [250 Kb/d], which set a new record

Source: includes data from US Energy Information A dm inis t r a t ion Note: Other includes Sudan/S Sudan, Syria & Yemen

BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy

? BP 2014

石油供应减产

石油供应减产和美国产量增长

从10年第4季度以来的累积变化量, 百万桶/日 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

从10年第4季度以来的累积变化量, 百万桶/日 4 利比亚

伊朗

其他

美国

净值

3 2 1 0 -1 -2

-3

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

来源: 包括来自美国能源情报信息署的数据

备注: 其他地区包括苏丹/南苏丹，叙利亚和也门 BP 世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

来源: 包括来自美国能源情报信息署的数据

备注: 其他地区包括苏丹/南苏丹，叙利亚和也门

BP 世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

As in recent years, supply disruptions were large and concentrated in North Africa and the Middle East. Libya has been a focal point: following initial outages of 1.2 Mb/d in 2011 due to civil war, production staged a nearly-full recovery in 2012 [1 Mb/d]. But renewed unrest in the second half of 2013 led to an average annual decline of 520 Kb/d last year. Iranian production declined by 190 Kb/d as a result of continued international sanctions. Significant losses w ere also seen in Syria, the Sudans and Y emen. Cumulative supply disruptions since the advent of the ―Arab Spring‖ from these countries have reached an extraordinary 3 Mb/d.

如同近年来的情况，供应减产的规模较大且集中发生在 北非和中东地区。利比亚是一个焦点地区：继2011年由于内 战而初步停产120万桶/日后，2012年几乎完全恢复了生产 水平[100万桶/日]。但2013年下半年再度出现的动乱使去年 的产量年均减少52万桶/日。伊朗的产量在持续的国际制裁 下减少19万桶/日。叙利亚、南北苏丹和也门均出现严重减 产。这些国家自―阿拉伯之春‖爆发以来的累计供应减产高 达惊人的300万桶/日。

We are now in a better position to return to the question of why oil prices were so stable the last three years, despite

For the biggest part the answer has to be that the supply disruptions in Africa and the Middle East were matched almost exactly by the shale-related production increases in the US. It is a fair conclusion that oil markets would look very different today, had we only witnessed supply disruptions on the scale they actually happened. And vice versa, oil mark ets would look very different today had we only witnessed the shale ―r e volution ‖ in the US. Importantly, the match is sheer coincidence. Higher prices may induce more shale production. But virtually nothing else of logic or substance connects the two developments. And so markets will remain on edge – or eerily calm – until one side gains the upper hand.

在很大程度上，答案应该是美国与页岩相关的产量增长 几乎完全弥补了非洲和中东地区的供应中断。合理的结论 是，如果只发生当前实际出现的大规模供应中断，今天的石 油市场状况将非常不同。反之亦然，如果仅有美国的页岩― 革命‖，当前的石油市场也绝非如此。重要的是，两者的此 消彼长纯属巧合。高价格可能刺激更多的页岩生产。但实际 上，没有合乎逻辑或具有实质意义的其他因素能够将上述两 种动态结合到一起。因此，在其中一种因素占据上风前，市 场仍将保持紧张不安——或者诡异的平静。

the violent shifts we observed in production.

我们现在能更好地回答此前的问题，即虽然我们看到产

量出现严重波动，为何石油价格在过去三年保持如此的稳 定。

r ke t s

$/bbl

1Q00-4Q100

2.5

2008-12 range 2013 2014 Jan Mar May Jul Sep N ov

50 52 54 56 58 60 62

OECD days of forward c ov e r

Oil supply disruptions and US production grow t h

Cumulative change since 4Q10, Mb /d 4 Libya Iran Other US

Net

Source: includes data from the I nt erna t ional Energy Agency ? OECD/IEA 2014, Pl a tt s and Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.

BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy 3 2 百万桶 1 2.8

0 -1 2.7

经合组织国家库存和期货市场即期布伦特价格减去12个月期货价格, 美元/桶 10

1Q 00-4Q 10

5

阿拉伯之春

-2 -3

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

2.6

之后: 1Q 11- -5 4Q 13

Source: includes data from US Energy Information Administration

Note: Other includes Sudan/S Sudan, Syria & Yemen

BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World E nergy

? BP 2014

-10

20 08-1 2 区间 20 13 20 14

-15

来源: 包括来自国际能源署, 普氏(P la tts ) 和 I nte r continental E xchange , I nc 的数据 .

50 52 54 56 58 60 62 经合组织库存可满足未来需求的天数

BP 世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

8

BP 世界能源统计2014年6月

In an interesting way, this current stand-off finds itself

reflected in the relationship between prices and inventories.

Commercial inventories contracted in 2013, ending the year

down almost 100 Mbbls on 2012, at the lowest year-end

level since 2004. At the start of the year, inventories w ere

ample following strong production growth in 2012, but

R e f inin g

炼油

Refining ca pa c i t y

stronger demand gro wth soon corrected this, and when

Libyan supply collapsed in September, OECD inventories

started to fall rapidly. Stocks have remained low so far this M b/d

Capacity growth in 2013

-0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9

Cumulative spare capacity g r o w t h

Mb/d s i nc e 20 05

8

year, particularly for refined products.

有趣的是，当前的拉锯还体现在价格与库存之间的关系

上。2013年的商业库存有所下滑，该年结束时比2012年减

少近10万桶，是2004年以来的最低年终水平。2013年

伊始，库存水平在2012年的强劲生产增长推动下非常充足，

但更强

N Am e r i

S & C A m e r i

Middle E as

Af r i

Asia P ac if

FS

Eu r op

Non-OECD

OECD

6

4

2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

劲的需求增长很快改变了这种状况，当利比亚的供应在9

月

份陷入瘫痪时，经合组织的库存开始迅速下滑。今年迄今为

止，特别是精炼产品的库存仍处于低位。

But there is a more subtle dimension.

Source: includes data from ICIS P a rpinelli T ecnon and Energy Security Analysis, Inc.

炼油产能

BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy

? BP 2014但是，还存在更微妙的问题。

百万桶/日

2013年产能增长

-0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9

累积闲置产能增长

自2005年起，百万桶/日

8

The relationship between the level of OECD commercial

inventories and prices has shifted since the advent of

significant supply disruptions in early 2011. The shape of the

forward curve since then indicates that market participants

are willing to pay a higher premium relative to future prices

前苏联

原油加工

量变化

非经合组织国家

经合组织国家

6

4

2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

to hold physical inventories than was the case a few years

ago–a clear indication of an increased desire for precautionary

inventory holdings. Even as inventories fell in late 2013 (and

so far this year) this higher premium has remained in place.

Current inventory levels under the old, pre-disruption regime

would have corresponded to lower spot and/or higher fut ure

prices.

自2011年年初出现大规模的供应减产以来，经合组织

的商业库存水平与价格之间的关系有所改变。自此以后的远

期曲线走势表明，与几年前相比，市场参与者愿意支付与较

高的期货价格溢价以持有实物库存——这明确表明持有预防

性库存的意愿有所增强。即使库存水平在2013年末出现

下滑

（直至今年），上述较高溢价仍得以维持。如果是在供应中

断前的旧机制下，当前的库存水平应导致出现较低的现货价

格或较高的期货价格。

来源:包括来自I C I S Parpinelli T ecnon and Energy Security Analy s i s,I n c.的数据BP世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

Global refining has been struggling for years, squeezed

between excess capacity and slower throughput gro wth.

Regional disparities are adding to the woes of the sector,

with more capacity being added East of Suez and US

throughputs rising as a result of rising tight oil production:

since crude exports from the US are legally constrained, US

refineries are processing the discounted domestic crude at

home and exporting products instead. 2014 so far saw a

continuation of these trends.

全球炼油行业多年来一直饱受煎熬，在过剩的产能和加

工量增长放缓的夹缝间腹背受敌。区域差异使该行业的处境

雪上加霜，苏伊士以东的炼能有所增加而美国的加工量在致

密油产量增加的推动下不断提高：由于美国的原油出口面临

法律限制，美国炼油厂正在对价格较低的国内原油进行加工

并转而出口成品油。2014年迄今，这些趋势仍得以延续。

Global refining capacity grew by 1.4 million b/d last year,

the highest net capacity addition since 2009. Capacity

growth was led by China [660 Kb/d] with the Middle East not

far behind. Global crude runs, in contrast, grew by only 0.4

million b/d and as a result, global spare capacity is no w

almost 7 Mb/d more than it was in 2005, the low point in our

data series. Despite this dismal background, global refining

margins were strong during the first half of 2013 due to a

combination of cold northern hemisphere weather and

refinery outages.

BP世界能源统计2014年6月9

去年，全球炼油能力增长140万桶/日，是2009年以来

净炼能增量最大的年份。炼能增长的引领者是中国（ 66

万桶/日），而中东紧随其后。与此对照，全球原油加工量

仅增加40万桶/日，导致当前全球闲置炼能与2005年相比

高出近700万桶/日，而2005年是我们数据系列中的低点。

在这种惨淡的背景下，2013年上半年的全球炼油利润却

非常可观，这得益于北半球的寒冷天气以及炼油厂停产所

产生的综合作用。

Refinery ut ili z a t i on and crude di ff e r e nt i a l s

长，新增物流能力跟不上原油供应普遍增加的步伐。因此，

这种差距仍在不断变化。

The new pipeline infrastructure has made it possible to

move more crude to the Gulf Coast, but export constraints

mean that the price discounts have spread to a wider range

of crudes. As a consequence, US refiners exported record

volumes of distillate last year [1.1 Mb/d] rather than replenish

domestic stocks. Its reduced dependence on long-haul

crude imports may well have facilitated a longer term drop in

working product inventory.

89%

86%

83%

80%

77%

Refinery u t iliz a t io n

W or l d

OECD

Non-O EC D

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

$/bbl

20

15

10

5

-5

B re n t-W TI

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

y td

新的管道基础设施使更多原油运至墨西哥湾成为可能，

但出口限制意味着更多类型原油的价格持续低迷。因此，美

国炼厂去年的馏分油出口创下纪录，而非用以补充国内库

存。美国对远道而来的原油的进口依存度降低，这很可能促

使流动油品库存在长期内出现下滑。

Conversely, European crude runs in 2013 fell [-550 Kb/d],

to their lowest annual level since 1985. European demand is

Source: includes data from Energy Securi t y Analysis, Inc. and Platts BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy

? BP 2014

炼厂开工率和原油价差

contracting and – different from Asia – today’s problems can

only be fixed by reducing capacity.

相反，2013年的欧洲原油加工量下降[-55万桶/日]，降至89%

86%

83%

80%

炼厂开工率

世界经合组织国

家非经合组织国

家

美元/桶

20

15

10

5

布伦特-西德克萨斯1985年以来的最低年度水平。欧洲需求正在萎缩，而且——

与亚洲不同——只能通过削减炼能来解决当前问题。

77%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

-5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

至今

来源:包括来自E n e r gy Sec urity Analy sis,I n c. and 普氏(P la tts)的数据

? BP 2014

Last year’s capacity and throughput developments meant

that global average refinery utilization slipped to 80.4%, the

lowest rate since 1987. Utilisation in the non-OECD fell to

78.5% because of the fast pace of capacity additions, but

OECD refinery utilization improved marginally [82.4%], with

US crude runs benefiting from continued price discounts f or

domestic crudes, and because of refinery shut do wns

else where.

去年的炼能和加工量的动态使全球炼厂平均利用率降至

80.4%，为1987年以来的最低水平。由于炼能增长的速度较

快，非经合组织的炼厂利用率降至78.5%，而经合组织的炼

厂利用率略有提高，其原因是美国的原油加工量增加，这得

益于国内原油价格的持续低迷及世界其他地区炼厂的关闭。

The US added new crude oil pipeline capacity that helped

to alleviate the transportation bottlenecks which drive

relative WTI prices, but with tight oil output rising at a rapid

clip, logistics additions are inevitably less uniform than the

ramp-up in crude supply. As a result, the differential continues

to be volatile.

美国建设了新的原油管道运输能力以缓解推动西德克萨

斯轻质原油相对价格的运输瓶颈，但由于致密油产量迅猛增

10 BP世界能源统计2014年6月

BP世界能源统计2014年6月11

Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 F eb-14

Natural Gas

天然气

组织消费增长的动力是美国；与石油不同的是，中国并不是

导致非经合组织消费增长疲软的原因。

Global natural gas m ar k et s

Natural gas pr ic es

$/mm B tu

Gas consumption growth in 2013

A nnua l change, %

US natural gas m ar k et

Horizontal drilling r igs

N um be r of ri g s

1400

Consumption growth in 2013

A nnua l change, Bc m

60

40

20

Japanese i m po r t

-2% 1% 4% 7%1050Re side ntia l

&

20 Commercial

16

German i m por t

UK N BP

12 US HH

8

4

S & C A m e r i ca

Middle E as t

North Am e r i ca

Asia P ac if ic

700

350

Oi l

Gas

-20

-40

10 year

Industrial

P owe r

2012 2013

1998 2003 2008 2013

Af r i ca

Europe & E ur as i a

Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 F eb-14

Source: includes data from Baker Hughes and US Energy Information A dm inis t r a t ion

aver a g e

BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy

? BP 2014 Source: includes data from BAFA, Energy Intelligence and ICIS Heren Energy BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy

全球天然气市场

天然气价格

美元/百万英热单位

2013年天然气消费增长

年度变化,%

? BP 2014美国天然气市场

水平钻机数量

钻机个数

2013年消费增长

年度变化,十亿立方米

民用

20

日本进口

-2% 1% 4% 7%

石油

和

商业

16

德国进口

英国NBP

12 美国亨利交易中心

8

中南美洲

中东

北美洲亚

太地区

天然气

工业

发电

2013

4

1998 2003 2008 2013

非洲

欧洲及欧亚大陆

年2月12年2月13年2月14年2月

来源:包括来自B a k e r H u ghe s和美国能源情报信息署的数据BP世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014来源:包括来自B A F A,Energy I ntelligence and ICIS Heren E n e r gy的数据BP世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

Natural gas markets are slowly transforming themselves,

on the back of two developments: the shale gas ―r e volution‖

in the US and the increasing integration of hitherto segmented

regional markets, supported by the rapid expansion of

liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2013, these forces took a

breather - US shale gas production growth slowed, and LNG

expansion remained very modest.

天然气市场正在发生缓慢变化，呈现两个发展动态：美

国的页岩气―革命‖以及目前分割性区域市场在液化天然气迅

速发展的推动下实现不断整合。2013年，这些因素的势头

减缓——美国的页岩气产量增长放缓，而液化天然气发展幅

度仍然很小。

Globally, growth of consumption [1.4%], produc t ion

[1.1%] and trade [1.8%] all slowed. Regional price dif f erentials

narrowed. As in all other fossil fuels, the slowdown in

demand growth was more pronounced in the developing

world: natural gas was the only fuel where OECD

consumption growth outpaced non-OECD growth. Like oil,

tracing OECD growth leads to the US; unlike oil, China w as

not the reason for weak growth in the non-OECD.

从全球来看，消费[1.4%]、生产[1.1%]和贸易[1.8%]增长

均有所放缓。区域价差缩小。与其它的所有化石燃料一样，

发展中国家的需求放缓更为明显：天然气是经合组织的消费

增长超过非经合组织的唯一燃料。与石油的情况相同，经合

To disentangle what happened, let’s start with the latest

chapter of the evolving US shale story. This chapter st arts

with slowing production growth; from 7.3% in 2011, to 5% in

2012 and 1.3% in 2013. It has nothing to do with ―r unning out

of shale‖– as some pundits have claimed – and everything

to do with the fungibility of drilling rigs and the power of

price signals.

为揭开真相，首先来看看不断演变的美国页岩传奇的最

新章节。该章节以产量增长减缓作为开篇：从2011年的7.3%

降至2012年的5%，进而减至2013年的1.3%。与某些权威

人士的说法不同，这种情况与―页岩气枯竭‖并没有关系，而

是与钻探设备流动性及价格信号的威力密切相关。

US gas prices hit a 13 year low in 2012, and st arted

rebounding in the wake of a cold winter early in 2013. For the

year they were up 34.5% on average, almost offsetting the

2012 decline. However, because of the persistently high oil-

gas price differential, this was not enough to accelerate

production growth. It remained more attractive to ―c hase

liquids‖, i.e. to continue to pert drilling rigs from shale gas

to tight oil production. Almost all the growth in gas production

last year came from associated and wet shale gas; dry shale

gas was do wn.

2012年，美国的天然气价格跌至13年以来的最低点，

随后在2013年年初的寒冬后开始反弹。美国的气价在2013

年平均上涨34.5%，几乎抵消了2012年的跌幅。然而，

由于石油-天然气的价差持续居高不下，这种价格反弹不足

以推动

产量加速增长。―追寻液体燃料‖仍然更具有吸引力，导致 生

产页岩气的钻探设备继续被用于致密油的生产。去年，几 乎全部的天然气增产量来自伴生气和湿气；干气产量下降。

Higher prices, low storage and the demand for heating signalled by a 17% increase in residential and commercial demand, however, did induce a dramatic pull out of natural gas from power generation – the point where it faces head-

on competition with other fuels. Total US consumption gre w by 2.4% but gas-fired power generation declined by 8.9%, substituted by coal; coal-fired generation grew by 5%. For the first time since 2008, gas lost market share in US po w er generation, falling back almost 3 percentage points [30.3% to 27.4%] - the biggest such loss since 1973.

然而，高价格、低库存及17%的民用和商业需求增长所

表现出的旺盛取暖需求确实使发电部门中的天然气份额急剧 下降——天然气在发电部门直面来自其他燃料的竞争。美国 的天然气消费总量增加 2.4%，但天然气发电量减少8.9%（被 煤炭取代）；燃煤发电量增长5%。自2008年以来，天然气 在美国发电部门的市场份额首次出现下降，减少近3个百分 点[从30.3%降至27.4%]——是1973年以来的最大降幅。

Global LNG and Asian s upply

液化天然气项目规模庞大，而且需要巨额投资。目前， 液化天然气的供应增长正处于多年以来的低潮，产能扩建非

常有限。2013年，供应仅增加0.6%。这使市场供应呈现紧 张状况，并将灵活的货物调配给愿意且能够支付高价的客 户。因此，我们很自然地见证了重大调整。81%的亚洲天

然 气进口是液化天然气，亚洲仍是液化天然气贸易的主要目的 地，吸纳了近75%的液化天然气货物。

Japan remained the world ’s largest LNG importer, with post-Fukushima demand for LNG persisting at record levels – but its gas fired power plants are now operating at full capacity, and so Japanese imports have stopped gro wing . Instead, South Korea assumed the mantle of recording the world ’s largest import growth, and again triggered by nuclear

outages.

日本仍是世界最大的液化天然气进口国，福岛事故后对 液化天然气的需求持续创下新高——但日本的天然气发电厂 目前正满负荷运行，因此日本的进口已停止增长。相反，韩 国接过衣钵，创下世界最大的进口增量，这也是核电停产的 结果。

Meanwhile in China, big strides were made toward the stated political goal of increasing the share of natural gas in the energy mix [currently 5.1%]. At 10.8%, China logged the

Bc m 360

240

120

Global LNG impor t s

O th e r

As i a

Asian supply growth in 2013

A nnua l change, Bc m 24

L NG 16 Pi pe li ne

8

Pr oduc t i on

biggest increase in gas consumption in the world last year [15.3 Bcm]. And although production listed the second largest global increment [9.5%, 9.9 Bcm], this still left a large gap for import growth. The gap was filled by rising LNG [up 22.9%]as well as pipeline imports [28.0%]; the latter mostly from Central Asia where tentative steps toward domestic

Europe

price reform in Turkmenistan – coincidence or not – lo w ered 0

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Japan & South K or ea

China

In d ia

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

consumption by roughly the amount of additional pipeline exports.

全球液化天然气市场和亚洲供应

全球液化天然气进口

2013年亚洲供应增长

? BP 2014

与此同时，中国在实现提高天然气在能源结构中的比重 [目前为5.1%]这一既定政治目标方面取得了巨大的进展。去 年，中国的天然气消费增长10.8%[153亿立方米]，居世界首

十亿立方米 360

年度变化，十亿立方米 24

其他

位。虽然中国的天然气生产实现全球第二大增量[9.5%，99 亿立方米]，但仍有巨大的缺口需要通过增加进口予以解决。

240

120

16

8 亚洲

欧洲

-8

液化天然气 管道天然气 生产

日本和韩国

中国

印度

这一缺口主要是通过进口液化天然气[增长22.9%]和管道天然 气[28.0%]来填补；管道天然气多来自中亚，来自该区域的土 库曼斯坦采取的国内价格改革等临时举措拉低了国内消费 量，而减额大致与其管道天然气出口量旗鼓相当（姑且不论 是否纯属巧合）。

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

BP 世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

The flip-side of higher demand growth and limited LNG availability is that it puts the spot-light on problems with LNG projects are large and investments can be lumpy. Currently, supply growth is in the middle of a multi-year lull, with very limited capacity expansion. In 2013, supplies expanded by merely 0.6%. This is keeping markets tight, allocating flexible cargoes to those willing and able to pay high prices. Small wonder, then, that we are witnessing massive adjustments. Asia, where fully 81% of all natural gas imports are met by LNG, remained the prime destination, with almost 75% of all cargoes headed that w a y. domestic production. India is the prime example: caps on producer prices have stalled investment and last year led to the world ’s largest decline in gas production [-6.7 Bcm or -16.3%]. Lack of cheaper priced domestic gas and the huge price advantage of coal over LNG imports has caused large scale substitution of gas with coal, assigning to India also the world ’s largest decline in gas consumption [-7.3 Bcm or -12.2%]. Ironically, almost a third of the coal was imported.

12

BP 世界能源统计2014年6月

BP世界能源统计2014年6月13

Net

i

mports

净进口

液化天然气的需求增高而供应有限在另一方面则突出体

现了国内生产问题。印度是一个典型实例：印度对生产商设

定的价格上限阻碍了投资，导致印度在去年出现天然气产量

方面的世界最大降幅[67亿立方米或16.3%]。缺乏低价的国

内天然气供应及煤炭与进口液化天然气相比具有巨大价格优

势，这促使煤炭大规模地取代天然气，使印度的天然气消费

也出现世界最大的降幅[73亿立方米或12.2%]。具有讽刺

意味的是，印度三分之一的煤炭来自进口。

EU natural gas m ar k et

下降[-2.6%]。在发电部门，天然气难以与价格更低的煤炭

和非化石燃料竞争：在发电部门，天然气市场份额的降幅超

过煤炭；而非化石燃料的市场份额有所增加。但总体来看，

由于取暖需求增加，欧盟的天然气消费降幅仍低于煤炭。

As was the case for global oil markets, EU imports w ere

affected by the social unrest plaguing Africa. Falling exports

from North Africa [-18.7%], Nigeria [-43.9%], and also

Norway [-5.2%] meant a need for alternative deliveries. In

the event, Russia stepped into the void, eliminating the need

to compete for expensive LNG.The net result was a big shif t Power generation mix

Share of total gene r a t i on, %

40%

30%

Natural gas s uppl y

A nnua l change, Bc m

25

R u ssi a

N o rw a y

O th e r

L NG

in the composition of imports, with imports from Russian

rising by 19.5% – a marked reversal of 2012, when Russia

had lost 12% of the EU gas market to Norway because

Gazprom maintained oil price indexation while Nor w a y

adjusted its pricing closer to spot prices. In 2013 the rapid 20%

10%

0%

-25

-50

Pr oduc t i on

N. A fri ca

increase of European spot prices eroded much of the

previous differential, but Gazprom, by its own accounts, also

offered discounts and rebates to sell gas on more competitiv e

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Source: includes data from ENTSOE and IHS CERA

* Includes hydro, nuclear and oil

欧盟国家天然气市场

发电燃料结构

占总发电量比重,%

*

40%

30%

2012 2013

BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy

? BP 2014

天然气供应

年度变化,十亿立方米

25

俄罗斯

挪威

terms.

与全球石油市场的情况相同，欧盟的进口受到困扰非洲

的社会动乱影响。北非[-18.7%]、尼日利亚[-43.9%]和挪

威[-5.2%]的出口供应量减少意味着欧盟需要寻找替代性供

应来源。在此情况下，俄罗斯填补了空缺，使欧盟不需要参

加对昂贵的液化天然气的竞争。这种情况产生净结果是欧洲

的进口结构发生重大变化，来自俄罗斯的进口量增长

19.5%——明显逆转了2012年的状况，俄罗斯在当年被挪威

20%

10%

0%

-25

-50

其他液化

天然气

北非

生产

夺走了12%的欧盟天然气市场份额，其原因是俄罗斯天然气

工业股份公司坚持将气价与石油价格挂钩的做法，而挪威则

将供气价格调整至接近现货价格的水平。2013年，欧盟的现

货价格迅猛攀升，在很大程度上缩小了此前的价差，但就俄2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

来源:包括来自EN TSO E和剑桥能源咨询公司的数据

* 包括水电、核能和石油

2012 2013

BP世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

罗斯天然气工业股份公司自身而言，它也通过提供折扣和返

利以更优惠条款出售天然气。

Europe took a rain check on the competition for LNG,

helped out by Russia. EU production appears in terminal

decline and consumption reached the lowest level since

Russian natural gas market and global t r a de

1999. In 2013 consumption fell by 1.1% and production by

0.5%, and imports declined slightly.

Russian natural ga s

A nnua l change, Bc m

20

T rade share of global c ons umption

Share of c ons u m p t i on,%

32%

LN G

Other pi pe li ne 由于俄罗斯的供应，欧洲暂缓对液化天然气的争夺。欧

盟的液化天然气产量似乎每况愈下，而消费量则降至1999

年以来的最低水平。2013年，其消费减少 1.1%，产量

下降

0.5%，而进口略有下滑。

As in the US, the year had started with a cold winter and

low storage levels. Demand for heating drove up spot prices

10

-10

-20

2012 2013

Source: includes data from CDU M oE

24%

16%

8%

0%

Russian p ip e lin e

1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy

? BP 2014

by 12.3% for the year, whereas oil-indexed contract prices俄罗斯天然气市场和全球贸易

f ell gently and in line with the price of oil [-2.6%]. Gas lost

the competition in power generation against cheaper coal

and non-fossil fuels: in power, its market share declined by

more than that of coal; while non-fossils gained. Overall

俄罗斯天然气

年度变化,十亿立方米

20

贸易占全球消费比重

占消费量比重,%

32%

液化天然气

其他管道气

though, EU gas consumption still fell less than coal, because

of increased heating demand.

与美国的情况相同，欧洲在2013年初也面临寒冷的冬季

及很低的库存水平。旺盛的取暖需求将当年的现货价格推高

10

-10

量

-20

-30

2012 2013

24%

16%

8%

0%

俄罗斯管道气

1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 12.3%，而与油价挂钩的合同价格跟随石油价格的步伐略有来源:包括来自CD U MoE的数据BP世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

160

Russia bucked the global trend: gas production increased

by 2.4% or 12.4 Bcm –the largest production increase in the

world, on the back of higher capacity utilization and increasing

output from independent gas producers –that is all producers

except Gazprom, which holds the export monopoly. Last

year they accounted for 28% of Russia’s production and,

because they offer cheaper gas, supplied 39% of Russia’s

domestic gas consumption. The erosion of its market share

at home allowed Gazprom to direct more resources abroad.

俄罗斯的情况与全球趋势背道而驰：天然气产量增加

2.4%，即124亿立方米——实现了世界最大的增产量，这

是

源自开工率的提高和独立天然气生产商产量的增加——即除

拥有出口垄断权的俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司之外的所有生

产商。去年，独立生产商贡献了俄罗斯产量的28%，由于

这

些企业的天然气价格较低，它们提供了俄罗斯国内天然气消

费量的39%。而鉴于其国内市场份额走低，俄罗斯天然气

工

业股份公司得以将更多的资源出口到海外。

A drop in domestic gas consumption also helped [-0.4%,

-2.8 Bcm], in part because Russia’s Far East suffered from

severe flooding early in 2013; the one silver lining to this

cloud was the second biggest growth in Russian hydropo w er

on record. Together with falling electricity demand, it reduced

the call on all other fuels for power generation, including

natural gas to make room for more exports. All told, exports

grew by 18.6% or 10.7 Bcm.

the general direction of travel –towards a more inte r-

connected gas world. One episode from 2013 nicely

illustrates the degree of integration international gas mark ets

have already achieved: gas displaced by strong hydro gro wth

in Russia was exported to Europe while LNG destined f or

Europe was re-exported to drought-stricken South American

markets. In effect, hydroelectricity from Russia with too

much rainfall was shipped half way around the globe to

South America with too little rain – and in the form of natural

gas.

液化天然气供应增长的暂时低潮无法阻扰其总体发展方

向——建立相互关联度更高的世界天然气格局。2013年发生

的一个事件很好地诠释了国际天然气市场业已实现的一体化

程度：俄罗斯的天然气被发展强劲的水电抢占其市场份额，

从而出口至欧洲，而原来运往欧洲的液化天然气则被转而出

口到遭遇干旱的南美市场。事实上，俄罗斯过于丰裕的降雨

产生的水电在跨越半个地球后被运到降雨匮乏的地区——但

却是以天然气的方式运送。

俄罗斯的国内天然气消费下滑也是原因之一[-0.4%，28

亿立方米]，这在一定程度上是由于俄罗斯远东地区在2013

年年初遭遇严重洪水；在那场灾难后，俄罗斯的水电因祸得

福，实现了有史以来的第二大增长。再加上电力需求下降，

发电部门减少了对包括天然气在内的所有其它发电燃料的需

求，这为增加天然气出口创造了空间。总而言之，俄罗斯的

天然气出口增加18.6%，即107亿立方米。

How do these differing regional stories affect the

evolution of global gas trade? T rade has grown at more than

twice the rate of global consumption for at least t w o

decades, with LNG expanding even faster. Since 2011, this

relationship has started to de-couple, with trade gro wth

slower than consumption and LNG losing market share. In

2013, gas trade expanded by only 1.8%, slightly above

consumption growth but considerably below the long term

average of 5.2% p.a., with pipeline trade again expanding

faster [2.3%] than LNG [0.6%].

这些不尽相同的区域发展动态对全球天然气贸易产生了

何种影响？在过去至少二十年里，天然气贸易的增长是全球

消费增长的两倍以上，而液化天然气的发展更快。自2011

年以来，这种关系开始发生变化，贸易的增长慢于消费的

增

C o al

煤炭

The coal m ar k et

Coal p ri ces

$/t onne

150

Asia Europe US

125

100

75

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: includes data from IHS McCloskey and Platts

Growth in C hina

A nnua l change, M t oe

200

C o ns ump t i on

120

80

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy

消费量

长，而液化天然气的市场份额有所萎缩。2013年，天然气贸

易仅增长1.8%，略高于消费增长，但远低于 5.2%的长期

平均水平，其中管道天然气贸易的增长[2.3%]还是快于液化

天然气[0.6%]。

产量

The temporary lull in LNG supply growth can not obscure2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

BP世界能源统计年鉴

BP世界能源统计2014年6月13

14 BP世界能源统计2014年6月

16 BP 世界能源统计2014年6

月 Coal rounds out the fossil fuel picture. In developing economies, this fuel of industrialization often is a reasonable indicator of economic health; in the OECD, coal markets are characterized more by competition with other fuels in po w er generation, driven by politics as much as by prices. 2013 w as no exception.

煤炭是化石燃料的最后一块拼图。对于发展中经济体而 言，这种工业化燃料通常是经济健康的合理指标；对于经合 组织，煤炭市场的特点更多表现为在发电部门与其它燃料进 行竞争，并受到政治和价格因素的影响，2013年也不例外。 Overall, coal markets slowed. Consumption growth of 3.0% remained below its long term average; production growth [0.8%] was the weakest since 2002; prices fell in all regions on de-stocking and low demand while regional price differentials narrowed with intensifying competition bet w een suppliers. 总体而言，煤炭市场发展放缓。消费增长3.0%，仍然低 于其长期的平均水平；产量增长是2002年以来最疲软的一 年[0.8%]；在去库存化和低需求的综合作用下，各区域的价 格均出现下跌，而供应商之间竞争加剧则缩小了区域价差。 The big story in coal markets is China, where coal accounts for 67% of the national energy mix. Coal consumption rose by 4% in 2013, less than half the ten year average [8.3% p.a.]. New policies to conquer local pollution by shutting down coal-intensive production and encouraging coal substitution may have played a part, but the scale of such measures is limited by the restricted availability of natural gas. In China, the share of the service sector in GDP exceeded that of the industrial sector for the first time last year and so moderating industrial production growth w as one contributing factor. Still, it remains hard to reconcile the coal slowdown with steady GDP gro wth. 煤炭市场的主力军是中国，中国的煤炭在国家能源结构 中的比重达到67%。2013年，中国的煤炭消费增长4%，不 足其过去十年平均水平的一半[8.3%]。关停煤炭密集型工厂 及鼓励发展煤炭替代燃料等力求减轻当地污染的新政策可能 发挥了一定作用，但这些措施的规模受到有限的天然气供应 的制约。在中国，服务业在国内生产总值中的比重在去年首 次超过工业，因此，工业生产增长放缓是一个驱动因素。然 而，如何在抑制煤炭增长的同时保持国内生产总值的稳定仍 然是个难题。

Elsewhere we find the data corresponding to the fuel switching described in the gas section. In India, rapidly declining domestic gas production and the price advantage of coal over LNG imports caused coal consumption to rise by

7.6%, the second largest volumetric increase on record. In the OECD, US consumption rebounded [4.6%] on higher natural gas prices whereas in the EU ’s shrinking energy market, coal contracted [-2.5%] faster than gas, losing market share also to rene w ables.

在其他地方，我们发现与天然气章节所述燃料转换相对 应的数据：在印度，国内天然气产量迅速下降而且煤炭相对 于进口液化天然气具备价格优势，这使煤炭消费增长7.6%， 为有史以来的第二大增量。在经合组织，美国的煤炭消费由 于天然气价格走高而出现反弹[4.6%]，而在日益萎缩的欧盟 能源市场，煤炭的降幅超过天然气[-2.5%]，而且还被可再生 能源夺走了市场份额。 Coal production and trade mirrored these pat terns.

Chinese coal production slowed to 1.2%, the lo w est increment since 2000. For the first time in 15 years, China did not record the world ’s largest increase in coal production; Indonesia did. China became the world ’s largest net coal importer in 2012 and cheaper foreign coal made further inroads into Chinese markets last year. Seaborne trade growth slowed [to 4.3% from 14.5% in 2012 for steam coal] but, in an environment of falling prices and rising transport costs, producers were quick to adjust. Production increased the most among suppliers with easy access to Pacific markets, such as Indonesia [9.4%] and Australia [7.3%] while production in the US [-3.1%] and Columbia [-3.7%] declined in line with falling demand in Europe and global price dif f erentials. 煤炭的生产和贸易状况也体现出上述模式。中国的煤炭 生产增长放缓至1.2%，为2000年以来的最小增幅。在过去 15年以来，中国首次没有实现世界煤炭生产的最大增长；被 印尼取而代之。中国在2012年成为世界最大的煤炭净进口 国，价格较低的外国煤炭在去年进一步进入中国市场。海上 运输贸易增长放缓[动力煤从2012年的14.5%降至4.3%]，但 是，在价格下跌和运输成本上涨的环境下，生产商迅速进行 调整。容易进入太平洋市场的供应商产量增长最大，如印尼 [9.4%]和澳大利亚[7.3%]，而美国[-3.1%]和哥伦比亚[-3.7%] 的产量由于欧洲需求下滑及全球价差而出现下降。

BP 世界能源统计2014年6月

15

Non fossil f u e l s

非化石燃料

time of writing, all of Japan ’s nuclear reactors are of fline. Elsewhere, declines in Korea, Ukraine, Spain and Russia were offset by growth in the US [21 TWh, 2.8%] and in China [13 TWh, 13.9%].

Hydro, renewables and nuc l ea r

Power gene r a t ion

Output changes in 2013

核能的贡献最小[0.9%，15万亿瓦时]，仅仅中止了两年 以来的颓势。后福岛事故时期的安全审查规模开始缩小，停

Thousand T Wh

4 Non -f os s il share of po w e r (RHS)

3

2

1

R e n e w ab l es

H ydro

N u c l e ar

40%

35%

30%

A nnua l change, TW h 200

100

-100

O th e r EU

C hi na

US

止运行的反应堆数目减少。在日本，核能发电量继续下滑 [-3.4万亿瓦时，-18.6%]，而且核电量已经处于低点。在编 写本文时，日本所有的核反应堆都已关闭。在其他国家，韩 国、乌克兰、西班牙和俄罗斯的核电降幅被美国[21万亿瓦 时，2.8%]和中国[13万亿瓦时，13.9%]的增幅所抵消。

Global hydro growth slipped to 2.9%, down from 4.5% 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

水电，可再生能源和核能

发电

万亿千瓦时 Nuclear

Hydro

R en ew ab l es

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? BP 2014

2013年发电量变化

年度变化，十亿千瓦时 in 2012, largely because of slowing capacity additions in China and – how could it be otherwise – global precipit ation patterns: Brazil experienced severe drought conditions f or the second consecutive year [-7.0%] while Europe and Eurasia saw a second year of generation increase [5.5%]. Slow growth it may have been, but it was enough to lift the share of hydropower in global primary energy to a ne w 4 非化石能源占发电比重 水电

(右轴)

3 核能

2

1

可再生能源

40%

35%

30%

200

100

-100

其他 record of 6.7%.

欧盟 中国

全球水电的增长率从2012年的4.5%降至2.9%，其主要

美国

原因是中国的产能扩张放缓以及——非常直观的原因——全 球降水格局：巴西连续第二年经历严重旱灾[-7.0%]，而欧洲 和欧亚大陆的水力发电量连续第二年增加[5.5%]。虽然增长 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

核能

水电

可再生能源

BP 世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

可能比较缓慢，但足以使水电在全球一次能源中的比重增至 创纪录的6.7%。 Many will not be aware that the share of non-fossil fuels in total power generation was on a declining trend through

Renewables in power gene r a t i on the 1990s and the early 2000s, as rene w ables w ere too

small to make a difference and the growth of hydro and Growth by r e gion

Renewables share of pow e r

nuclear failed to keep up with total power generation. Only over the past decade have faster hydro growth and the A nnua l change, TWh 200

A nnua l change, %

28%

16% EU US scaling up of renewables halted the decline.

很多人可能不太清楚，上世纪90年代和21世纪初，非化 石燃料在发电总量中的比重呈现下降趋势，其原因是可再生 能源的规模太小，无法产生真正的影响，而且水电和核电的

150

100

50

0 21%

14% 7%

0%

12%

8% 4%

0%

W or l d Ch i n a

增长未能与发电总量的增长同步。在过去十年里，水电的加 速增长和可再生能源的迅猛发展中止了上述颓势。

2013 was a big year for non-fossil fuels: growth w as above average, they increased their share of global po w er 2003

2008

2013

可再生能源在发电行业的利用

分区域增长

1998 2003 2008 2013

BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy

? BP 2014

可再生能源占发电百分比

generation to almost one third [32.5%], crowding out f ossil generation in the EU and the US along the w a y.

年度变化，十亿千瓦时 200 年度变化，%

28%

16%

2013年对非化石燃料而言是重要的一年：其增长超出平 均水平，在全球发电量中的比重几乎达到三分之一[32.5%]， 在欧盟和美国则抢夺了化石燃料在发电部门的份额。

150

100

50

21%

14%

7% 12%8%

4%

Nuclear made the smallest contribution [0.9%, 15 TWh], simply by ending two years of decline. Post-Fukushima

0%

2003

2008

2013

0%

BP 世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

safety reviews were scaled down and fewer reactors w ere out of operation. In Japan, generation continued to fall [-3.4 TWh, -18.6%], but from already extremely low levels. At the This leaves us with renewable power, the largest contributor to non-fossil growth in 2013. Power generation from renewables grew by 16.3%. This was the lo w est

16

BP 世界能源统计2014年6月

growth rate since 2009 while growth in volume terms [170 TWh] recorded an all-time high. Renewables made a larger

contribution to primary energy growth than natural gas. As a share of global electricity generation, renewable po w er reached 5.3% in 2013, up from 2.7% five years earlier.

可再生能源是2013年非化石燃料增长的最大动力。这是

The fuel mix and carbon em i ss i on s

燃料结构和碳排放

Fuel shares and carbon e m i ss i ons

2013年非化石燃料增长的最大推手。可再生能源发电量增长 16.3%。这是2009年以来的最低增长率，但按量计算的增

长

50% Shares of global primary e ne r gy Energy and emissions growth in 2013 A nnua l change, % 6% [170太瓦时]达到历史最高水平。可再生能源对一次能源增长 40% Oi l

4% Ca r bon E ne r gy 的贡献超过天然气。2013年，可再生能源在全球发电中的比

重从五年前的2.7%增至5.3%。

Coa l

2%

As a share of total global primary energy, rene w ables 10%

0%

H ydro

N u c

l e ar

R en ew .

0%

-2%

stood at 2.2% last year; adding in biofuels brings the renewable total to 2.7%.

去年，可再生能源在全球一次能源中的比重为2.2%；如

果加上生物燃料，该比重总计为2.7%。

1973

1983

1993

2003

2013

燃料结构和碳排放

全球一次能源比重

World OECD Non-OECD US

E U

BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy

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2013年能源和碳排放增长

R ene w ables gre w

in all regions, and in almost all 50%年度变化, %

6%

countries. The EU as a bloc is still ahead of the US and China, in annual increment and in the share of renewables in po w er generation. The EU now receives 15.0% of its power from renewable sources. At the same time, however, the EU

40% 30%

20%

10年平均 2% 碳排放 growth rate has slowed, from 20.6% in 2011, to 18.0% in 2012 and 13.5% last year, leaving even the 2013 volume 10% 水电 0% 核能

可再生能源 0% -2% 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 世界 经合组织 美国 欧盟 increment smaller than the 2011 and 2012 increments. It is

no accident that this slowdown affects most the very region where penetration rates, and therefore subsidies, are highest. 所有地区和几乎所有国家的可再生能源都有所发展。在

年增量及可再生能源在发电部门中的比重方面，欧盟作为一 个整体仍超过美国和中国。欧盟目前有15.0%的电力来自可 再生能源。然而与此同时，欧盟的可再生能源增速放缓，从 2011年的20.6%降至2012年的18.0%，进而降至2013年的 13.5%，使2013年的增量低于2011年和2012年。并非巧合的 是，受上述增长放缓影响最大的区域是普及率及补贴最高的 地区。

The coincidence of slower growth rates with high

volumetric contribution points at the underlying dilemma. Renewables are still subsidized. Sizeable annual increments reflect the scale renewables have already reached, while the slowdown of their growth indicates the weakening of financial support as they scale up and the burden of rising subsidies on society increases. 同时出现的增速放缓与供应量增加体现出一种根本性困 境。可再生能源仍得到补贴。可观的年度增量反映了可再生

能源已经达到的规模，而增速放缓则说明财政支持随着可再 生能源规模的扩大有所减少，同时不断攀升的补贴给社会带 来了更沉重的负担。 组织 BP 世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

An easy way of weaving the annual fuel by fuel changes into a coherent pattern is to look at how they affect the global fuel mix. With the exception of gas, which saw its mark et

share dip to 23.7%, the shares of each fuel pushed into unfamiliar territory in 2013. Oil ’s share declined to 32.9%, a new low in our data set and extending a 40 year declining trend that goes back to the first oil price shock in 1973. Coal ’s share took another step on the steady upward march that had started in 2002, when non-OECD industrialisation started in earnest; its share increased to 30.1%, the highest since 1970.

以协调一致的模式来分析各种燃料年度变化的简单方法 是探讨其对全球燃料结构的影响。2013年，除天然气的市场 份额降至23.7%外，其它各种燃料的市场份额都进入了不常

见的区间。石油的市场份额降至32.9%，是我们建立数据集 以来的新低，并延续了1973年首次石油危机以来连续40年 的下降趋势。随着非经合组织工业化开始火力全开，煤炭

的 市场份额延续了 2002年开始的稳步攀升曲线，并再

创新 高。煤炭的市场份额增至30.1%，达到1970年以来的最高水 平。 Carbon emissions per energy unit vary widely among

fuels, and so the evolution of the fuel mix has implications for carbon emissions. In 2013, non-fossil fuels in po w er enjoyed relatively strong growth, increasing their aggregate share of primary energy [from 13.1% to 13.3%]. Despite

this, global carbon emissions grew almost as rapidly as tot al

BP 世界能源统计2014年6月 17

18

BP 世界能源统计2014年6月

400

primary energy [2.1% versus 2.3%] because of the rising share of coal. This has been a very important trend over the years – carbon emissions have grown less rapidly than GDP courtesy of improved energy efficiency , but they did keep pace with energy consumption. In other words, there has been no change in the carbon intensity of the global fuel mix over the last decade. In the

OECD, carbon emissions per unit of energy declined in 2013 due to the increased share of non-fossil fuels. In the non-OECD, the rising share of non- Energy i m b alan ces

能源失衡

Changes in energy ba l a nc es Fossil fuel imb a lan ces Mto e 800

Change in imbalances, 2003-2013

Mto e

f ossil fuels w as offset by the risin

g share of coal and the

declining share of natural gas – and emissions grew at the same rate as primary energy [3.1%]. 0 -400Russia China US O 单位能源的碳排放在各种燃料之间差异巨大，因此，燃

料结构的演变会对碳排放产生影响。2013年，发电部门使用

-800 Coa l 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

的非化石燃料实现较为强劲的增长，其在一次能源中的总体 比重有所提高[从13.1%至13.3%]。尽管如此，由于煤炭的

比重不断提高，全球碳排放的增速几乎与一次能源总量增速 持平[2.1%对比2.3%]。这是过去多年里出现的非常重要的 趋势——在能效提高的推动下，碳排放的增速低于国内生产 总值的增速，但与能源消费的增速同步。换而言之，全球燃 料结构中的碳强度在过去十年里没有发生变化。由于非化石 燃料的比重提高，经合组织2013年单位能源的碳排放有所下

Note: imbalances defined as production minus cons umpt ion

能源平衡的变化

化石能源供需不平衡

百万吨油当量

800

400

俄罗斯

中国 美国

BP Statistical Review of World E nergy

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能源不平衡的变化, 2003-2013

百万吨油当量

O 降。但在非经合组织，非化石燃料比重的提高被煤炭比重的 提高和天然气比重的下降抵消——排放增速与一次能源增速 持平[3.1%]。

0 -400

-800

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

G

Co a l

中国 美国 俄罗斯

The net result is that carbon emissions continue to rise too fast for comfort – restrained by improving energy efficiency , but not affected by changes in the global fuel mix. In the US, for example, much of the large decline in emissions recorded in 2012 was reversed last year as the power sector switched back to coal and away from gas. From the dimensions of the system, it is easy to see ho w even small switches from coal to gas could dramatically impact global emissions gro wth.

上述情况的最终结果是碳排放仍然增长过快而且令人不 安——能效提高发挥了一定作用，但全球燃料结构的变化未 能对碳排放产生积极影响。例如在美国，随着发电部门再次 青睐煤炭而摒弃天然气，2012年实现的大幅减排在去年被逆

转。从系统的各个方面来看，很容易发现，即使小规模煤改 气也能极大地影响到全球排放增长。

The one region reaping benefits from changes in the fuel mix was the EU where strong growth of renewables and hydro contributed to declines in both coal and gas use in power. EU emissions in 2013 were more than 13% belo w

their 1990 level – and, like oil, almost back to where the y were in 1969. For the world as a whole, however, emissions are 55% above the 1990 level.

从燃料结构变化中受益的一个区域是欧盟，其可再生能 源和水电的强劲增长促使发电部门的煤炭和天然气使用量双

双下降。2013年，欧盟的排放量比1990年的水平低13%以 上——而且与石油的情况类似，碳排放几乎恢复至1969年的 水平。然而，就全世界整体而言，排放仍比1990年的水平高 出55%。

备注: 不平衡定义为产量减去消费量

BP 世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

Let us conclude by returning to one of the issues raised at the beginning – the linkages between energy and the economy; and to an example of how the remarkable shift in physical energy balances which has occurred over the last decade will affect the global economy.

最后，让我们回到本文开头所提出的一个问题——能源 与经济之间的关联性；并回顾一个实例，即实物能源平衡在

过去十年所发生的沧桑巨变对全球经济产生了什么影响。 China, the US and Russia are the world ’s top three consumers and producers of energy today – in this order,

and for both consumption and production. Russia is the world ’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, while the US and

China are the second and third biggest importers (after Japan).

中国、美国和俄罗斯是当今世界的三大能源消费国和生 产国——排序如上，消费和生产的排名次序都是如此。俄罗

斯是世界最大的化石燃料出口国，而美国和中国则分别是第 二和第三大进口国（排名在日本之后）。

Over the last ten years, physical energy imbalances f or

these countries – simply the difference between domestic production and consumption – have shifted. Globally, the US had the biggest increase in oil and gas production – and the largest decline in oil and coal consumption. China had the biggest increase in coal production and in the consumption

16BP世界能源统计2014年6月

of every single fossil fuel. Russia had the second biggest

increment in oil production.

在过去十年里，这些国家的实物能源平衡状况—即国内

生产与消费之差——发生了转变。从全球来看，美国的石油

和天然气生产增幅最大——石油和煤炭消费则出现最大降

幅。中国的煤炭生产及各种化石燃料消费增幅最大。俄罗斯

的石油生产增量位列次席。

Working out the net results of changes in physical

production and consumption shows China’s deficit for oil and

gas worsening by almost exactly the same magnitude by

which the US deficit improved. As a result, the Chinese

primary energy deficit overtook that of the US for the first

time last year. Russia’s surplus improved for every fossil fuel

over this period, so far allowing it to maintain its position as

the world’s largest holder of an energy surplus.

对实物生产与消费变化差值的计算结果表明，中国的油

气赤字增幅与美国的赤字减幅几乎完全相同。因此，中国的

一次能源赤字在去年首次超过美国。在同一时期，俄罗斯各

种化石燃料的盈余进一步增加，使其迄今为止保持了世界最

大的能源盈余国地位。

Trade balances and e ne r gy

中一个影响是国际收支平衡效应。全球能源贸易约占全球货

物与服务贸易的15%，国家能源平衡状况的变化通常会对任

何国家的国际收支平衡造成严重影响。

In the US, energy imports still make up about half of the

trade deficit. However, on the back of diminishing oil and gas

imports, this deficit is shrinking fast. China, on the other

hand, sees increasing import dependence eating into its

trade surplus; despite rapid economic growth, energy

imports as a share of GDP almost tripled from 2003 to 2013.

在美国，能源进口仍约占贸易赤字的一半。然而，随着

美国石油和天然气进口的减少，这一赤字正在迅速缩小。另

一方面，中国不断增强的进口依存度减少了其贸易盈余；虽

然经济增长迅猛，但2013年能源进口在中国国内生产总值

中所占比重几乎是2003年的三倍。

Russia has a sizeable trade surplus [5.7% of GDP] due to

its energy exports. However, if expressed as a share of GDP,

the non-energy related deficit doubled over the last ten years

while energy exports grew in line with GDP. If expressed as

a share of GDP, Russia’s overall trade surplus is falling f ast.

俄罗斯由于其能源出口而拥有巨额贸易盈余[国内生产总

值的5.7%]。但是，如果从在国内生产总值中所占比重的角度

进行分析，非能源相关的赤字在过去十年里翻了一番，而能

源出口与国内生产总值同步增长。如果从在国内生产总值中US

T r illio n$U S

0.6

T r illio n$U S

0.6

Ch i n a

T r illio n$U S

0.6

R u ssi a

所占比重进行分析，俄罗斯的总体贸易盈余正在迅速下降。

0.4 Other goods & services0.40.4If one would have asked any economist over the last ten

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

2001 2005 2009 2013

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

2001 2005 2009 2013

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

2001 2005 2009 2013

years for potential sources of trouble to the global economy,

global trade imbalances would have loomed large in the

response. From today’s point of view it seems as if global

energy balances, by eating into the US deficit as well as into

the Chinese surplus, are becoming a part of the solution.

Source: includes data from CEIC and T homson Reuters Datastream BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy

贸易差额和能源

美国

万亿美元

0.6

其他货物和服务

中国

万亿美元

0.6

万亿美元

0.6

俄罗斯

? BP 2014如果有人在过去十年就影响全球经济的潜在因素询问任

何一位经济学家，全球贸易失衡一定是主要答案。从今天的

角度来看，全球能源平衡——通过减少美国赤字和中国盈

余——正在成为解决方案的组成部分。

0.4

能源

0.40.4

0.2 净平衡差额

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

2001 2005 2009 2013

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

2001 2005 2009 2013

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

2001 2005 2009 2013

来源:包括来自C E IC和T hom s o n R e u t e r s D a tas tream的数据BP世界能源统计年鉴

? BP 2014

These shifts in physical energy balances do have

macroeconomic implications. One of them is a global

balance of payment effect. Global energy trade amounts to

roughly 15% of the global trade in goods and services and

changes in national energy balances typically have a sizeable

effect on any countries balance of pa yments.

这些实物能源平衡状况的变化确实影响到宏观经济。其

BP世界能源统计2014年6月19

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