经济学人文章（英汉双语对照）汇集 - 图文

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赏析版2012年12月经济学人文章（英汉双语对照）汇集

[2012.11.28] The Q&A: Samuel Arbesman 专访：萨缪尔 阿布斯曼 ................................... 2 [2012.11.29] New film: “Great Expectations” 新影片：《远大前程》 ............................. 8 [2012.12.01]Lincoln and leadership 林肯和领导能力 ........................................................... 10 [2012.12.01] Survival of the biggest “大”者何以生存？ ................................................... 15 [2012.12.01] Ratan Tata’s legacy 印度资本主义：塔塔的传家宝 ..................................... 18 [2012.12.01] The penis 阳具 ................................................................................................... 23 [2012.12.05] New film: “Life of Pi” 新影片《少年派的奇幻漂流》 ................................ 26 [2012.12.08]The Big Four auditors Accountable 问责四大审计 ............................................ 28 [2012.12.08]Heated debate 激辩 ........................................................................................... 31 [2012.12.11] New film: “The Hobbit” 新影片：《霍比特人》 ........................................ 35 [2012.12.15] Space cadet 朝鲜：太空痴梦 ........................................................................... 38 [2012.12.15]Banjan The rocky road to revival崎岖的复兴之路 ........................................... 40 [2012.12.22] Hell: A very rough guide 地狱不完全指南 ........................................................ 43 [2012.12.22] A nebulous future 云遮雾罩的未来 ................................................................. 49 [2012.12.22] Hell: Into everlasting fire 地狱：业火永劫 ....................................................... 51 [2012.12.22] The girl at the Grand Palais 在巴黎大宫邂逅的女孩 ....................................... 63 [2012.12.22] In the name of the Name 上帝的称谓之争 ...................................................... 75

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[2012.11.28] The Q&A: Samuel Arbesman 专访：萨缪尔 阿布斯曼

The Q&A: Samuel Arbesman 专访：萨缪尔·阿布斯曼

The half-life of facts 知识的半衰期

Nov 28th 2012, 13:56 by R.D.A. | LOS ANGELES

IN PRIMARY school Babbage learned that there were nine planets in the solar system. None were known to exist outside it. Since then, astronomers have spotted over 800 planets around other stars (and thousands more \mere \笔者在上小学时知道了太阳系有九大行星。当时人们还没有找到太阳系之外的任何行星。现在，天文学家已经找到超过800颗围绕其它恒星公转的行星（此外可能是行星的“候选”天体数量更是上千），而同时冥王星却已被降级为一颗“矮行星”。即使粗略检视其他领域你也会发现类似的情况。

Samuel Arbesman, a mathematician at Harvard, calls this \of his new book. In it he explains that this churn of knowledge is like radioactive decay: you cannot predict which individual fact is going to succumb to it, but you can know how long it takes for half the facts in a discipline to become obsolete. Such quantitative analysis of science has become known as scientometrics. We talked to Dr Arbesman about how knowledge changes over time, and what this means for the way people consume information.

哈佛大学数学家萨缪尔·阿布斯曼（Samuel Arbesman）给这种现象取名叫“知识的半衰期”，并写了一本以此为题的书。在书中他解释说知识的新旧交替如同放射性衰变，你无法预知某项特定知识是否会受这种衰变效果影响而被淘汰，但你能够找出某一领域的知识在多久之后会有一半被淘汰。这种对科学的定量分析被称之为科学计量学。我们和阿布斯曼博士就知识如何随时间改变、以及这对人们使用信息的方式有何影响进行了一次专访。

What is scientometrics? 什么是科学计量学？

Put simply, scientometrics is the science of science. It grew out of bibliometrics, the science of books and research papers. In bibliometrics the unit of measurement is a

research paper, which are easy to study because you can quantify different aspects of it: who the authors are, who has co-authored papers with those authors, how often a paper is cited, by whom, and so on.

简单来说，科学计量学就是研究科学的科学。这是从研究书籍和论文的科学——文献计量学中引申出来的。文献计量学使用的测量单位是论文。论文是比较容易研究的课题，因为你可以量化论文的各种特点：作者是谁、谁曾经和该论文的作者合作发表过论文、该论文被引用的频率、被谁引用等等。

Librarians were some of the first people to do this. In the 1970s people started looking around and noticing that scientific knowledge was growing very rapidly, but papers had

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not been digitised yet, and libraries were finite in size and had finite resources. And so librarians had to grapple with the question what to carry on their shelves. They had to calculate which fields get overturned really rapidly, in other words, which papers and books people were unlikely to care about in the future.

图书馆员是最早进行这类研究的人士之一。20世纪70年代人们发现身边的科学知识增长速度非常快，但当时论文还没有数字化，图书馆的规模和资源都有限。因此图书馆员必须处理该让什么书上架这一问题。换句话说，他们必须计算哪些领域的知识更新速度非常快，哪些书籍和论文会在未来变得无关紧要。

But bibliometrics is only one subfield of scientometrics. There are all kinds of ways that you can quantify science: you can measure the number of discoveries that are occurring within a particular field, the number of elements in the periodic table, etc. Broadly, scientometrics is about quantifying and understanding how science occurs.

但文献计量学只是科学计量学的一个子领域。要量化科学有各种方式：你可以测量某个特定领域内新发现的数量，元素周期表内元素的数量等等。大体来说，科学计量学研究的是如何量化并理解科学成果产生的方式。

That includes both the social aspects of science and the relationship between science and technology. There is a tight interplay between the capacities of our tools and what we can actually discover. Technology is crucial to the story of science. Science of science is about all these different things. And my book is about how the facts of the world—the stuff we know—grow in number, and how they change.

这包括科学的社会面以及科学和技术之间的关系。我们使用的工具的能力和我们能发现的成果之间有密切的相互依赖关系。对于科学发现来说技术是至关重要的。研究科学的科学致力于研究所有这些不同的方面。我的书讨论的是世界上的知识——我们所知的事物——如何增长、如何改变。

What does it mean to say that a fact has a half-life? 知识有半衰期是什么意思？

When I say that a fact has a half-life, I am trying to illustrate how knowledge changes by making an analogy to radioactivity. With radioactivity, if you give me a single atom of uranium, I can tell you it will eventually decay. When it does, it will break down into

specific bits and release a certain amount of energy. But I have no way of telling when it is going to decay. It could be in the next half-second or not for millions and millions of years.

我说知识有半衰期是为了用放射性现象的比喻来描述知识的变化。就放射性现象来说，你如果给我一个铀原子，我可以告诉你它最终会衰变。一旦衰变发生，它会分解为特定的产物，并释放一定的能量。但是我不可能告诉你它什么时候会衰变。可能再过半秒它就衰变了，也可能要等几万亿年。

But things change when you go from a single atom to lots of atoms. When you have a big chunk of uranium, you can graph out the decay; you can say it takes 4.47 billion years for half of the atoms in a chunk of uranium to break down. You aren't going to know which half, but you know the overall rate of the decay. And the same thing is true for science, and for knowledge in general. Even though I cannot predict what discovery

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is going to be made or what fact is going to be overturned, there are regularities in how knowledge grows and changes over time.

但是如果你给我的不是一个原子，而是大量原子，情况就不同了。当你有一大块铀时，你可以绘出衰变曲线。你可以确定这些铀中有一半原子会在44.7亿年的时间里衰变。你不知道具体哪一半会衰变，但你可以确定总体的衰变率。对于科学、以及更广义的知识来说也是一样。虽然我无法预测会出现什么样的新发现，或是有哪些知识会被推翻，知识随时间增长并变化的规律是有迹可循的。

For example, in the area of medical science dealing with hepatitis and cirrhosis, two liver diseases, researchers actually measured how long it takes for half of the knowledge in these fields to be overturned. They gave a whole bunch of research papers from fifty years ago to a panel of experts and asked them which were still regarded as true and

which had been refuted or no longer considered interesting. They plotted this on a graph. What they found is that there is a nice, smooth rate of decay; you can predict that every 45 years, half of this particular sort of knowledge gets outdated.

例如，在研究肝炎和肝硬化的医学方面，研究者对过多久这些领域内的一半知识会被推翻进行了研究。他们将50年前的一批论文交给一个专家评审团，判断其中哪些的结果如今已被推翻，或是已经不再重要。他们将结果绘成一副图表，并在图中看到非常清楚平滑的衰变曲线。你可以用该图预测每过45年，该领域的知识都会有一半变得过时。

You can use these same methods with citations in newer papers. There, you look to see how long papers are cited in a field and then derive a half-life based on how long it takes for papers to receive half the citations they used to receive. Of course, some papers are no longer cited precisely because they are so influential. No one is citing Newton's

Principia even though we still use a lot of his ideas. But by and large, the citation rate of papers is a good proxy for the half-life of knowledge.

把同一方法用在最近论文的引用上，你可以研究某一领域内的论文在多长时间内会被别的论文引用，然后你可以根据论文发表后多少时间内其引用次数会减少到其最初引用次数的一半来推算出半衰期。当然，有的论文不再被引用恰恰是因为它们影响力极大。现在没人会在论文内注出对牛顿《原理》的引用，但我们还在继续使用很多他的思想。但除了这些特例，基本上论文引用率还是很适合代表知识半衰期的。

What scientific fields decay the slowest—or the fastest—and what drives that difference? 哪些科学领域的“衰变”最慢？哪些最快？它们之间为什么会有这样的差异？

Well it depends, because these rates tend to change over time. For example, when

medicine transitioned from an art to a science, its half-life was much more rapid than it is now. That said, medicine still has a very short half-life; in fact it is one of the areas

where knowledge changes the fastest. One of the slowest is mathematics, because when you prove something in mathematics it is pretty much a settled matter unless someone finds an error in one of your proofs.

这是没有标准答案的，因为衰变率本身会随时间推移而改变。例如，当医学最早从一门艺术变成一门科学时，其半衰期比现在要迅速多了。尽管如此，医学仍然是半衰期非常短的一门科学，实际上它是知识变化最快的领域之一。知识变化最慢的领域之一是数学，因为在数学里一旦证明某一定理很多时候结果就等于是敲定了，除非有人发现你证明过程中的错误其一般不会被推翻。

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One thing we have seen is that the social sciences have a much faster rate of decay than the physical sciences, because in the social sciences there is a lot more \experimental level. For instance, in physics, if you want to understand the arc of a

parabola, you shoot a cannon 100 times and see where the cannonballs land. And when you do that, you are likely to find a really nice cluster around a single location. But if you are making measurements that have to do with people, things are a lot messier, because people respond to a lot of different things, and that means the effect sizes are going to be smaller.

我们观察到的一个现象就是社会科学的衰变率比自然科学要快得多，因为社会科学在实验水平上存在的“噪音”要大得多。例如，在物理学里，如果你想要研究抛物线轨迹，你可以发射大炮100次，看看炮弹会落在哪里。你会发现炮弹大多非常漂亮地集中在某个点周围。但是如果你测量的对象是人，那问题就多了，因为人对大量不同的外界事物会有反应，换句话说，效应大小会小得多。

What is a \predictable?

什么是“知识相变”？它如何让第一次登月这样的事件变得可预知？

First, here is what I mean by a phase transition. An example in the natural world is when water goes from liquid to ice when it freezes. For most people that is pretty

unremarkable. But it is actually really interesting when you look at it from a physics perspective. A continuous change—in this case, a change in temperature—is

accompanied by a step-change is other properties: water going from being a liquid to a crystal. This is a good way to think of rapid changes in knowledge.

首先，我解释一下相变这个概念。自然界的一个例子就是水凝固时从液态变为固态。对大多数人来说这一现象平淡无奇，但是从物理学的角度来看你会发现这其实是一个很有趣的现象。某一属性的连续转变（在这个例子里是温度改变）会伴随着其它属性质的飞跃：水从液态变为晶体固态了。这可以用来帮助我们思考知识的迅速改变。

Some of these happen rapidly, but underneath there are these gradual changes. For example, with the moon landing was a pretty big change in human knowledge and

human accomplishment. For all of human history, no one had ever set foot on the moon, and then one day in 1969 people had. But if you look carefully you will see that the moon landing was completely predictable. Look at the fastest speeds enabled by

technology, for instance, and it turns out that they follow a regular curve. In the 1950s the American air force graphed this out and determined that if transportation speeds continued rising at the rate they were going, humans should be able to get into orbit, and then eventually land on the Moon, within a set number of years. And, sure enough, right on schedule, Sputnik happened, and a decade later humans landed on the moon. That was a fact phase transition, an abrupt change with slow incremental processes hiding beneath the surface.

有些改变是迅速发生的，但在突变之下隐藏有上文所说的渐变。例如，登月对于人类知识和成就来说是一个巨大的飞跃。在人类历史上，从未有人踏足过月亮表面，1969年的某一天某人突然就做到了。但如果仔细分析，你会发现登月完全是可预见的。例如，你如果看看依靠科技所能达到的最高移动时速，它基本上沿着一条正常曲线一路升高。20世纪50年代时，美国空军把该数据绘成曲线图，发现如果移动速度照这个趋势继续升高，那么人

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类会在若干年内进入绕地轨道，并最终登陆月球。事实和他们预测的一样，斯普特尼克准时登空。之后又过了十年，人类就登上了月球。这就是一个知识相变，受到隐藏在表面之下渐变的过程推动而发生的突变。

One theoretical fact phase transition that you describe is \concept borrowed from medical science.

你提到的一个理论上的知识相变：“死亡逃逸速度”，这是来自医学的一个概念。

Actuarial escape velocity is the idea that at some point average human lifetime will grow by more than a year each year. Right now the rate is only a fraction of a year (thanks to changes in medical science and hygiene) a year. If it exceeds one year per year, people will effectively live for ever, without having to solve the immortality problem. The reason I bring it up in my book is to illustrate that small changes in science can actually bring about big changes in other areas of knowledge, or elsewhere in the world.

死亡逃逸速度是指最终人类寿命每年会增加超过一年这一观点。现在人类寿命每年增长的程度（多亏了医学和卫生）还只是一年的一小部分。如果这个增加速度达到每年增长超过一年，那人们实际上可以不需要解决不死问题，就能实现永生。我在书中提到这一点是为了描述科学中的细微变化可以在其它知识领域、或世界其它地方产生巨大的实际改变。

For example, if an astronomer finds another planet outside solar system, unless it has certain properties, it will just be another piece of data. It is not going to alter the

structure of people's ideas about planets. But if he discovers a planet that can harbour life, that is a game-changer. And actuarial escape velocity is similar, in the sense that these incremental changes in medical science and hygiene can eventually create a huge change in how we live our lives.

例如，如果天文学家发现太阳系外的一颗行星，除非它有某些特殊性质，不然这仅仅是多一份数据。发现新的行星不会改变人类对行星的理解。但如果天文学家发现的行星上有生命，那就完全不同了。死亡逃逸速度也是如此，医学和卫生领域内的渐进改变最终可以导致我们生活方式的巨大改变。

In your book, you make a convincing case that scientific breakthroughs are becoming more difficult to achieve with time. One gets the sense that the low-hanging fruit of empiricism have been picked. But you also argue that science as a human activity is growing, and getting better. How is that?

在你的书中，你令人信服地论证了随着时间推移会越来越难做出科学上的突破。读者会了解到易摘的经验主义果实都已被采光了。但你也论证了科学作为一项人类活动正在增长，而且蒸蒸日上。这怎么说？

In some fields science is getting harder, but I would not say that science as a whole is becoming more difficult. We are still adding new scientists every year, but the rate of growth has slowed and science is increasingly being done by large teams. But there are many areas where we thought there is nothing left to explore, only for someone to come along and say that there is something there, after all.

在某些领域科学研究确实越来越艰难，但我不认为科学研究整体正在变得更为艰难。我们每年都有新的科学家加入研究队伍，但科学研究的增长率确实在放缓，而越来越多的研究要依赖大型团队。但是有很多领域我们原以为没什么可以探索了，不料却有人在该领域仍

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然发现新的事物。

In mathematics there was an extreme case of this in the 1990s, when two high-school students figured out a new way to prove one of Euclid's theorems, something that had not been done in a thousand years. So even though basic geometric proofs are not the frontier of mathematics, there are still things you can do. And even where things slow down in science, often that slowing forces scientists to be cleverer, both in finding ways to create new knowledge but also in finding new ways to combine disciplines. Plus nowadays new technology is a real driving force; the new computational tools have created the potential for a scientific revolution.

在数学里就有一个很极端的例子发生在20世纪90年代，当时两位高中生发现了一种新的方式来证明欧几里德的一条定理，从一千年前起就已没人找出过欧几里德定理的新证明方法了。因此虽然基础几何学如今已不是数学的前沿，还是有新发现等待人们去发掘。即使科学发现的速度放缓了，这种放缓现象常常会让科学家变得更聪明，因为它迫使科学家设法创造新知识并寻找新方式来综合各个领域。此外如今新技术是真正的推动力，新的计算工具酝酿着新的科学革命。

Reading your book it is difficult not to think about consilience, the term that Edward Wilson uses to describe an idealised unity of all scientific knowledge. Do you think

scientometrics can get us to something like consilience faster than if science were merely left to its own devices?

你的书很容易让人联想到“知识融通”，爱德华·威尔逊（Edward Wilson）用这个词来形容所有科学知识的理想化统一。你认为和任科学自己发展相比，科学计量学的出现可以让我们比更快达到这一境界吗？

There is a great deal of power in the idea of consilience, and in synthesising ideas. When it comes to understanding the march of knowledge, scientometrics can be very helpful. I don't think it is necessarily going to help us realise the complete synthesis of all

knowledge, but if we have a better sense of how we know what we know, and how what we know changes, that will force a reckoning in how we think about how knowledge as a whole is organised. If you create a networked view of different scientific fields, you quickly realize how connected they are. There are surprisingly few steps from thinking about abstract mathematics to thinking about models of how population size changes in an ecosystem. As science grows and becomes more and more complicated, having people that can exist in these liminal spaces is going to be increasingly important.

“知识融通”以及综合思想是非常强大的概念。在理解知识的累积增进时，科学计量学可以帮助很大。我不认为科学计量学一定会对实现知识的完全综合有所贡献，但是如果我们能更好理解我们是如何掌握现有知识的，以及我们拥有的知识是如何随时间推移改变的，这将会迫使我们思考知识整体是如何组织的。如果你将不同的科学领域之间的联系看成一个网络，你会立刻意识到不同领域的相互联接非常发达。从思考抽象的数学问题到思考生态系统内的种群数量变化模型之间其实只需要没几个过渡步骤，这是很让人惊奇的。随着科学逐渐进步，变得越来越复杂，能够身处这样的模糊临界领域思考问题的人将来会变得越来越重要。

It seems that one of your purposes in writing this book is to call attention to the human habit of becoming accustomed to whatever state of affairs is true when a situation is initially examined. By showing how knowledge about the world shifts systematically, you

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seem to be suggesting a renewed vigilance against growing complacency about knowledge of the world.

你写这本书的其中一个目的好像是为了让人们注意到自己的一个习惯：即人类会逐渐把最早研究某一事物时得到的观察视为理所当然。你的书告诉人们知识是如何系统化地改变，其中似乎蕴涵让人们重新自省，防止在对知识的认识上过于傲慢的意思？

That is certainly one of my arguments. I want to show people how knowledge changes. But at the same time I want to say, now that you know how knowledge changes, you have to be on guard, so you are not shocked when your children coming home to tell you that dinosaurs have feathers. You have to look things up more often and recognise that most of the stuff you learned when you were younger is not at the cutting edge. We are coming a lot closer to a true understanding of the world; we know a lot more about the universe than we did even just a few decades ago. It is not the case that just because knowledge is constantly being overturned we do not know anything. But too often, we fail to acknowledge change.当然，这是我的论点之一。我希望让人们看见知识是如何改变的。但是同时我也想指出一旦你知道知识是会改变的，你必须要常常警醒，这样才不会在你的孩子放学回家告诉你恐龙有羽毛时大吃一惊。你必须经常查阅资料，意识到自己年轻时学到的很多知识并不是最先进的。我们已经大幅接近对世界的真实理解了，我们对宇宙的认识比仅仅几十年前已经多得多了。知识在不停得更新并不意味着我们无知。但是很多时候，我们确实没有意识到这种改变。

Some fields are starting to recognise this. Medicine, for example, has got really good at encouraging its practitioners to stay current. A lot of medical students are taught that everything they learn is going to be obsolete soon after they graduate. There is even a website called \could all stand to learn from medicine; we constantly have to make an effort to explore the world anew—even if that means just looking at Wikipedia more often. And I am not just talking about dinosaurs and outer space. You see this same phenomenon with knowledge about nutrition or childcare—the stuff that has to do with how we live our lives.

某些领域开始意识到这一点。例如，医学在鼓励从业者时时保持学习最新知识这一点上做得很好。很多医学院学生会被告知他们所学的一切在毕业后不久就会过时。甚至有一个名叫“最新信息”的网站在不停地更新医学教科书。在一定程度上各个领域都可以学习医学，我们必须不停地努力来重新探索世界，就算这仅仅体现在更频繁地查维基百科也好。而且我所讲的不仅只是关于恐龙和外太空。你在营养和育儿这些和我们生活息息相关的领域也会看到同样的知识更新现象。

http://www.ecocn.org/thread-174050-1-1.html译者：nayilus

[2012.11.29] New film: “Great Expectations” 新影片：《远大前程》

New film: “Great Expectations” 新影片：《远大前程》

Action-packed 内容“丰富”

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Nov 29th 2012, 11:51 by N.B.

THE two best-known film adaptations of Charles Dickens?s “Great Expectations” are David Lean?s classic from 1946, and Alfonso Cuarón?s less successful 1998 production. Both are distinct from each other and also differ greatly from Charles Dickens's original novel: Mr Cuarón had Gwyneth Paltrow and Ethan Hawke swanning around 1990s New York, and Mr Lean had no qualms about jettisoning the supporting characters and subplots which he deemed unessential to the core story.

改编自查尔斯·狄更斯（Charles Dickens）的《远大前程》的电影中最著名的两部要数1946年大卫·里恩（David Lean）执导的经典版本，以及阿方索·卡隆（Alfonso Cuarón）1998年执导的那部相对没那么成功的版本。这两个电影版互不相同，而且都和狄更斯的原作相去甚远：卡隆导演在片中让格温妮丝·帕特洛（Gwyneth Paltrow）和伊桑·霍克（Ethan Hawke）畅游20世纪90年代的纽约，而里恩导演则对于丢弃故事中的配角和次要情节毫不在意，认为这些元素对于故事主线来说是不必要的。

A new version, directed by British stalwart Mike Newell, takes a different tack. The screenwriter, David Nicholls, author of the mega-selling novel “One Day”, has said that “Great Expectations” is his favourite book, and so he?s written the version that his fellow Dickens aficionados have been waiting for—one that retains as many of the novel?s key scenes as possible.

如今英国名导迈克·内威尔（Mike Newell）尝试了另一种改编的方式。本片的编剧大卫·尼克尔斯（David Nicholls）是畅销小说《一天》的作者。他将《远大前程》视为自己最喜爱的书，因此他笔下的电影版本将会是狄更斯迷们热烈期待的——一部尽可能保留了小说中关键场景的剧本。

We meet Pip as a Kentish lad being raised by his abusive sister and her kindly husband at their blacksmith?s forge. We see his thrilling encounter with an escaped convict, Magwitch, played like a scavenging animal by Ralph Fiennes. And we witness his spine-tingling meetings with the mysterious Miss Havisham (Helena Bonham Carter, pictured below, who adopts much the same regal insouciance as she did in “The King?s Speech”). Then we rejoin Pip (Jeremy Irvine, pictured above) as a young man, thrust into London society by an unknown benefactor, and pining for Miss Havisham?s ward, the beautiful but disdainful Estella.

我们在片中最初看到的皮普是一个被他那暴力姐姐和善良姐夫在铁匠铺子里养大的肯特郡小伙子。我们会目睹他和在逃犯马格维奇（拉尔夫·范恩斯（Ralph Fiennes）将他演得如同一头觅食的野兽）惊心动魄的相遇。我们也会见证他和神秘的郝维辛小姐（海伦娜·伯翰·卡特（Helena Bonham Carter，下图）身上依然带着《国王演讲》里那股高贵的漠不关心感）那几次令人毛骨悚然的会面。然后我们会再次和长大后的青年皮普相遇（杰瑞米·艾文（Jeremy Irvine）饰，文首剧照）。他被一位不知名的赞助人硬塞进了伦敦的社交圈子，追求着郝维辛小姐的养女——对他嗤之以鼻的美女埃斯黛拉。

Mr Newell makes much of the contrast between town and country. In Kent, we?re treated to atmospheric, wide-open marshland vistas. In the opulent clutter of London, the film turns theatrical. The rich are smothered under layers of oily blue and purple finery, and there are no skies visible above the thronging, narrow streets. Pip, we gather, is stifled by his new-found wealth, not liberated by it.

内威尔导演在片中大肆利用了城镇和乡村场景之间的对比。在肯特郡，我们观赏到的是富

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感染力、空旷无垠的沼地远景。在富足喧嚣的伦敦，整部电影则带上了舞台剧的色彩。富人身上裹着一层层油光光的蓝紫色华服。熙熙攘攘的窄街上空看不到一丝蓝天。我们在其间发现皮普刚获得的财富并没有赋予他自由，却反而让他窒息。

Along with definitive portrayals of Magwitch by Mr Fiennes and Joe (Pip's brother-in-law) by Jason Flemyng, the look of the film is its most impressive aspect. But after a while the viewer may start to feel as oppressed as Pip does. In their determination to cram in so many of the novel?s episodes and characters, Mr Nicholls and Mr Newell haven?t given any of them room to breathe. The opening scenes in Kent don?t seem rushed, but once Pip is in London, he has to give screen-time to Jaggers the lawyer, his assistant

Wemmick, and his maid with a secret past, Molly. He must jostle with friends, foes, and casual acquaintances. Halfway through we lose track of who, or what, the story is about. The humour and satire are squeezed out, and even Pip?s love affair with Estella is pushed into the background. Dickens?s key scenes are all here, but they have been shaved down to slivers.

除了范恩斯对马格维奇的诠释以及杰森·弗莱明（Jason Flemyng）对乔（皮普的姐夫）的诠释之外，本片最令人震撼的地方在于影片整体的视觉效果。但是观众在观看到中途时可能会开始感觉和皮普一样压抑。为了把小说的全部情节和人物都压缩进一部电影之中，尼克尔斯和内威尔没有让任何角色有喘气的空间。片首在肯特郡的几场戏并没有仓促的感觉，但是等到皮普来到伦敦，他不得不和律师贾格斯，贾格斯的助手威米克以及藏有一段秘密过去的女仆莫利分享镜头。他必须和朋友、敌人以及一些泛泛之交对戏。在影片过半时观众会迷失方向，不清楚这究竟是谁的故事？是关于什么的故事？书中的幽默和讽刺都被挤掉了，就连皮普和埃斯黛拉的感情戏也变得次要。狄更斯书中的关键场景全部都涉及到了，但是它们都被精简得没剩下多少。

Last Christmas the BBC aired a three-part mini-series based on “Great Expectations”, just ahead this year?s Dickens bicentenary. Also a faithful adaptation of the novel, three hours still wasn?t quite enough to do it justice. Mr Newell?s new film certainly makes you wish it had an extra hour to play with, particularly during the twist-packed final act, when the revelations and flashbacks appear with almost laughable frequency. Watching this

adaptation of “Great Expectations” is ultimately less like reading the novel than flicking through a lavishly illustrated edition and just about getting the gist of the plot. Here?s hoping there will be a Director?s Cut on DVD with an hour of extra material.

今年是狄更斯诞辰两百周年，去年圣诞节BBC为此特别播放了由《远大前程》改编的三集迷你电视剧。那部电视剧也是原著的忠实改编，但三个小时还是不足以诠释这部巨作。内威尔的新片会让你希望该片片长能再增加一个小时。情节跌宕起伏的片尾尤其需要更多时间来展开剧情，否则的话，该处各种真相大白和回忆片段穿插切换的频率之快，令人莞尔。最终，观看这部《远大前程》的改编版与其说像在和阅读原作，还不如说是在快速翻阅一本精美的小说插图版而仅仅勉强掌握剧情的要点。希望该片的DVD能出一个加长版，能够包含再多一个小时的剧情。

http://www.ecocn.org/thread-174567-1-1.html译者：nayilus

[2012.12.01]Lincoln and leadership 林肯和领导能力

Schumpeter 熊彼得

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Lincoln and leadership 林肯和领导能力

Outsiders can make the best leaders—and also the worst 局外人既可以成为最好的领导，也可能变成最糟的领导

Dec 1st 2012 | from the print edition

IN MAY 1860 the Republican National Convention met in Chicago, in the teeth of the worst crisis since the revolution, to choose a presidential candidate—or, rather, a

president, since the Democratic Party had split asunder. The candidates included two of the most experienced politicians in America—William Seward and Salmon Chase—but the delegates bet instead on a one-term congressman who had failed to win a Senate seat for his native state, Illinois, and who suffered from debilitating depressions.

1860年五月共和党全国党代大会在芝加哥召开，当时美国正面临独立革命以来最可怕的危机。该党代会旨在选出一位总统候选人。由于当时民主党已经完全分裂成两派[注1]，这次党代会推选出来的候选人很有可能会当选总统。会上的提名名单中包括两位当时美国资历最深的政治家——威廉·塞沃德（William Seward）和萨尔蒙·蔡斯（Salmon Chase）——但党代表们最终把希望押在了一位众议员身上。他在众议院内只呆过一届，在他老家伊利诺伊州的参议院竞选中曾经败下阵来，而且患有非常严重的忧郁症。

Abraham Lincoln now regularly tops historians? lists of the greatest American presidents. But he owes his greatness partly to the fact that he was an outsider on whom no

sensible man would have bet. He made a series of bold moves—such as sending ships to supply Fort Sumter, thereby forcing the South to fire the first shot of the civil war—that his more experienced rivals might not have made. And he gave a series of nation-defining speeches that nobody else in the country could have delivered.

他就是亚伯拉罕·林肯（Abraham Lincoln），现在常被历史学家视为美国历史上最伟大的总统。但他的伟大有部份原因在于他是个局外人，任何有理智的人本都不会在他身上押注。他做出了一系列非常大胆的行动，如果换上他在初选中那些政治经验更丰富的对手当任也许就不会那么做，例如他派船队向萨姆特堡运送物资，从而迫使南方打响南北战争的第一枪[注2]。而且他进行了一系列划时代的演讲，确立了今天我们所知的美国，当时美国除他之外无人可以做到这一点。

It is no surprise that the leadership-cum-management industry has embraced the outsized figure of Lincoln. Donald Phillips?s study, “Lincoln on Leadership”, bears the subtitle “Executive Strategies for Tough Times”. Nor is it surprising that Steven

Spielberg?s film, “Lincoln”, is boosting the lessons-from-Lincoln trade. Executives are once again practising the Gettysburg address before their mirrors and reading the book that gave Mr Spielberg his inspiration, Doris Kearns Goodwin?s “Team of Rivals”.

因此领导及管理行业推崇林肯这位重要人物也就不足为奇了。唐纳德·菲利普斯（Donald Phillips）的著作《林肯论领导能力》的副标题就是“困难时期的执行战略”。同样的，斯蒂芬·斯皮尔伯格（Steven Spielberg）执导的电影《林肯》进一步增进了“学习林肯”行业的生意兴隆。执行总裁们再一次开始在镜子面前练习葛底斯堡演讲，并阅读斯皮尔伯格那部电影的灵感来源——多利斯·科恩斯·古德温（Doris Kearns Goodwin）所著的《政敌团

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队》。

Most of this is nonsense. Mr Phillips uses Lincoln to illustrate well-worn nostrums such as the virtues of managing by walking around (Lincoln spent a lot of time walking around battlefields). Ms Goodwin?s advice about “teams of rivals” would produce havoc in the average corporation. Any boss who imitated Mr Spielberg?s Lincoln and roared that he was “clothed in immense power” would soon find himself out of a job. “Towering genius disdains a beaten path,” Lincoln once said, which limits what can be learned from his example.

这些风潮大多是胡闹。菲利普斯利用林肯来阐述一些毫无新意的管理方式，如走动式管理（林肯在战场上花大量时间四处走动巡视）。古德温在《政敌团队》中提出的建议用在普通公司内会引起一片大乱。要是有哪位老板效仿斯皮尔伯格电影里的林肯，大声叫嚣自己“身披权力的大氅”，那他很快就得拍屁股走人了。林肯自己曾说过：“天纵之才不屑踏足熟悉的道路”，这就意味着别人从他身上能学到的东西其实有限。

But not all Lincolnology is tosh. In his new book, “Indispensable”, Gautam Mukunda, of Harvard Business School, uses Lincoln to examine one of the liveliest debates in modern management—whether insiders or outsiders make better bosses. Before the financial crisis the consensus was strongly in favour of insiders. But it is shifting, partly because so many insiders made a hash of things and partly because companies are casting around for a way to reignite growth. In an annual study of 2,500 companies Booz & Company, a consultancy, calculates that the proportion of chief-executive posts going to outsiders rose from 14% in 2007 to 22% in 2011. In Europe the share went from 14% to 31%. On November 26th Britain broke with precedent by appointing a Canadian, Mark Carney, to run the Bank of England.

但“林肯学”并非一无是处。哈佛商学院的古塔姆·穆昆达（Gautam Mukunda）所著的新书《不可或缺》里就用林肯作为例子，讨论了现代管理学里最激烈的辩论之一——到底局内人还是局外人当老板更好？在金融危机之前业界的普遍看法强烈支持局内人。但这种看法现在已经开始转变，这一方面是因为很多局内人把公司管得一团糟，另一方面是因为很多公司现在正急于寻找重新让公司业务增长的方法。博斯咨询公司每年都会调查2500家公司，根据他们的计算，首席执行官交给公司外部人士接任的比例从2007年的14%上升到2011年的22%。在欧洲该比例更是从14%上跳到31%。11月26日英国打破先例，委任加拿大人马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）出任英格兰银行行长。

The better angels of our nature 我们天性中善的一面

Mr Mukunda divides leaders into two types, “filtered” and “unfiltered”. The filtered are known quantities: insiders who have been subjected to a succession of tests designed to reveal their strengths and weaknesses. The unfiltered are enigmas: outsiders like Lincoln who have never been tested by high office; insiders like Winston Churchill who have fallen out of favour; or transplants like Mr Carney who have made their reputations in alien organisations. Filtered leaders tend to make little difference: the other insiders on the shortlist might have done just as well. But unfiltered leaders can make a huge

difference, sometimes for the better as Lincoln and Churchill did, but more often for the worse.

穆昆达将领导分为两类：“滤后领导”和“未滤领导”。“滤后领导”为众人所熟知：他们是局内

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人，经历过一系列旨在曝露其优缺点的继任测验。“未滤领导”则如同一个迷团：他们有的像林肯一样是局外人，从未在高级职务上经过考验；有的和温斯顿·丘吉尔（Winston Churchill）一样是一度失宠的局内人[注3]；有的则和卡尼一样是在其它机构打出自己名声的外来者。“滤后领导”选谁其实无关紧要，候选人中任何一个上任都会干得差不多。而“未滤领导”的选择则至关重要，偶尔你可能会碰到像林肯或是丘吉尔那样的人才，但把局面搞得更糟的例子其实更为常见。

Another recent book from the HBS stable, William Thorndike?s “The Outsiders”, reinforces Mr Mukunda?s argument about the possible advantages of unfiltered leaders. Mr

Thorndike examines eight bosses whose firms outperformed the S&P average by more than 20 times over their business careers and finds that they were all outsiders who brought fresh perspectives to their industries. Katharine Graham of the Washington Post was a widow who had not had a paid job for years, Bill Anders (General Dynamics) was a former astronaut, Tom Murphy (Capital Cities) had never worked in the media before he took over a struggling television station and Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) is Warren Buffett.

同样来自哈佛商学院的威廉姆·索恩戴克（William Thorndike）最近也有一本新书出版。《局外人》进一步对穆昆达关于“未滤领导”可能存在优势的论据进行了补充。索恩戴克列出8所在某一总裁治理期间业绩表现超出标准普尔平均值20倍的公司。他发现所有8位总裁都是为自己行业带来崭新视点的局外人。《华盛顿邮报》的总编凯瑟琳·格拉哈姆（Katharine Graham）上任时是一位已经多年没有正式工作的遗孀。通用动力公司的总裁比尔·安德斯（Bill Anders）之前是宇航员。首都通讯公司的总裁汤姆·墨菲（Tom Murphy）在临危受命于该电视台之前从未在媒体业干过。而伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的老板华伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffet）嘛……你懂的，他是华伦·巴菲特。

But for every successful outsider there are a dozen failures: think of Carly Fiorina at

Hewlett-Packard, John Sculley at Apple, Bob Nardelli at Home Depot, Richard Thoman at Xerox or Jeff Skilling at Enron. Al Dunlap leapt from company to company, cutting jobs and boosting short-term profits as he went, until the Securities and Exchange

Commission forced him to put his chainsaw away. Booz points out that in 2009-11 34.9% of outside bosses were sacked, compared with only 18.5% of insiders.

但每一个成功的局外人故事都对应着十几个失败的故事：想想惠普的卡莉·菲奥丽娜（Carly Fiorina），苹果的约翰·斯卡利（John Sculley），家得宝的鲍勃·纳尔得利（Bob Nardelli），施乐的理查德·索曼（Richard Thoman），还有安然的杰夫·斯其林（Jeff Skilling）。阿尔·邓洛普（Al Dunlap）[注4]从一间公司跳到另一间，每到一间公司就大肆裁员，推高短期利润。最后美国证券交易委员会勒令他停止使用其重组伎俩。博斯公司的数据显示2009至2011年间共有34.9%的局外人总裁被解职，而局内人总裁中这个比例只有18.5%。

This suggests that it is best to avoid outsiders if things are humming along fine. It is much easier to go from good to bad than it is to go from good to great. But if things have stopped humming—if your company is in crisis, like General Motors, or your industry is being reshaped, like telecoms—then you should look for an outsider. The standard method is to choose a star from another organisation, but many turn out to be duds. One alternative is to appoint an “insider-outsider”, such as a high flyer who has left

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to do something else. Tony Hall, appointed to the BBC?s top job to replace a man ousted after 54 days in the post, fits that bill: he was a BBC man who left the corporation to run the Royal Opera House. Another option is to draft in someone to do a senior job for a while before deciding whether to give him the top slot. Mr Mukunda suggests that you take informal soundings from any prospective hire?s colleagues rather than rely on formal interviews. The reason why companies tend to bet on insiders is not that they think they might be “clothed in immense power” but that they know what they look like in their underwear.

这意味着如果业务一帆风顺，最好还是避免雇用局外人总裁。把好摊子搞砸要比更上一层楼容易得多。但如果局面已经开始失衡，如你的公司和通用汽车那样正身处险境，或是你所在的行业像电信业那样面临翻天覆地的变化，那么你应该找一位局外人总裁。寻找局外人的标准方法是从另一间公司选一位明星经理，但这样做很多时候结果并不好。另外一种方式是委任一位“局内局外人”，例如在公司内曾前途无量，但后来离开公司转而从事其它业务的人士。BBC前任总裁上台仅54天之后即被解雇，代替他出任总裁一职的托尼·霍尔（Tony Hall）就是这样的一个例子。他曾是BBC内部人员，但后来离开该公司前去负责管理英国皇家歌剧院。还有一种选择是委任某人担任高级职务一段时间，再决定是否让他当总裁。穆昆达提出在评估某人是否适合总裁一职时，你应该多依赖他同事的非正式意见，而不是正式的面试。公司倾向于让局内人担任高职并非因为他们觉得这些人可以“身披权力的大氅” 令行禁止，而是因为他们连这些人穿内衣是什么模样都一清二楚。

译者注：

1 － 南北战争前民主党因为对总统继任人选和对奴隶制的意见不同，分裂为南北两派，双方都派出自己的候选人角逐1860年的总统大选。共和党抓住这个机会，林肯成为美国历史上第一位共和党总统。他当选后南方很快宣布独立，南北战争爆发。战后民主党慢慢以统一面貌重回政治舞台。

2 － 1861年4月的萨姆特保之役标志美国南北战争的开始。萨姆特堡位于南方提出独立的南卡罗莱纳州。该州政府要求美国（北军）军人退出该军营，据守北军军官没有服从。后来林肯派出船只向该堡运送物资遭到南军炮轰，南北战争正式爆发。

3 － 丘吉尔的政治生涯有几段大起大落，多次当政辞政。他政治生涯中期在1924年以保守党身份再次入选国会，成为英国财相。但在1929年保守党大选落败后，他因很多政见问题和保守党人士不合受到多方孤立。1939年，他已离开内阁10年，政治生涯似乎也快要结束。但该年第二次世界大战的爆发扭转了所有局势，一直对德国抱有怀疑态度的丘吉尔一举翻身，受命为第一海务大臣。隔年德国入侵法国彻底证明首相张伯伦的绥靖政策是姑息养奸，张伯伦引咎辞职，丘吉尔临危受命，铸下战时铁血首相的声名。

4 － 阿尔·邓洛普是20世纪90年代美国著名的企业家，是重组问题公司方面的专家。他接手问题公司后采用的铁腕裁员重组措施在业界非常有名，给他带来“电锯阿尔”（Chainsaw Al）的外号，后来在重组Sunbeam公司时爆出会计丑闻，落得声名狼藉。

http://www.ecocn.org/thread-174186-1-1.html 译者：nayilus

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[2012.12.01] Survival of the biggest “大”者何以生存？

Battle of the internet giants 网络巨头之战

Survival of the biggest “大”者何以生存？

Concern about the clout of the internet giants is growing. But antitrust watchdogs should tread carefully

人们越来越担忧网络巨头势力太大。但反托拉斯监管部门还应小心行事。

Dec 1st 2012 | from the print edition

THE four giants of the internet age—Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon—are

extraordinary creatures. Never before has the world seen firms grow so fast or spread their tentacles so widely. Apple has become a colossus of capitalism, accounting for 4.3% of the value of the S&P 500 and 1.1% of the global equity market. Some 425m people now use its iTunes online store, whose virtual shelves are packed to the gills with music and other digital content. Google, meanwhile, is the undisputed global leader in search and online advertising. Its Android software powers three-quarters of the

smartphones being shipped. Amazon dominates the online-retail and e-book markets in many countries; less well known is its behind-the-scenes power in cloud computing. As for Facebook, if the social network?s one billion users were a country, it would be the world?s third largest.

网络时代的四大巨头——谷歌、苹果、脸谱与亚马逊——都是出色的企业。纵观全球，其发展速度之快，影响范围之广，前所未见。占标准普尔500指数成份股4.3%及全球股市1.1%的苹果公司业已成为资本主义体制下的一个庞然大物。目前使用iTunes线上商店的人数约为4.25亿，店内虚拟货架上全是音乐及其他数字产品。与此同时，谷歌公司在搜索引擎和在线广告领域是全球无可争议的领头羊。目前使用谷歌安卓系统的手机占总出货量的四分之三。亚马逊则在多个国家的线上零售业及电子书市场占主导地位；其云计算技术同样十分强大，只因其幕后性质而名声稍逊。至于脸谱，这个社交网络的十亿用户若成一国，将是世界第三大国。

The digital revolution these giants have helped foment has brought huge benefits to consumers and businesses, and promoted free speech and the spread of democracy along the way. Yet they provoke fear as well as wonder. Their size and speed can, if left unchecked, be used to choke off competition. That is why they are attracting close scrutiny from regulators.

这些网络巨头推波助澜之下挑起的数字化革命为用户和商户带来了巨大的利益，同时还促进了言论自由及民主精神的传播。但是，它们创造了奇迹，也引起了担忧。这些巨头规模如此之大、发展速度如此之快，若不加约束，则有可能扼杀竞争。这就是它们引起监管部门严格审查的缘故。

Google is the one most under threat. Both the European Commission and America?s Federal Trade Commission (FTC) have been investigating allegations that it has unfairly manipulated its search results to favour its own services. The company also stands

accused of several other transgressions, including using patents to stymie competition in

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the smartphone market. The regulators want Google, which disputes the charges, to change its practices. If talks fail—they were still continuing asThe Economist went to press—the search firm could end up mired in costly legal fights on both sides of the Atlantic. This could become the defining antitrust battle of the internet age, just as Microsoft?s epic fight a decade ago—over its bundling of its web-browser with its Windows operating system—defined the personal-computer era.

面临最大威胁的是谷歌。目前，欧洲委员会和美国联邦贸易协会（FTC）都在调查谷歌是否以不正当手法操纵搜索结果，使其有利于自身业务。谷歌还被控其他几项罪名，包括利用专利阻碍智能手机市场中的竞争。欧洲委员会和美国联邦贸易协会希望否认指控的谷歌能够改变这些做法。如果谈判失败——截至本期《经济学人》付印时谈判仍在进行——谷歌最终可能在大西洋两岸都会为费用高昂的诉讼所困。这件案子也许会成为网络时代最为关键的案件，一如十年前微软公司漫长的诉讼之争——为Windows操作系统自带网络浏览器辩护——界定了个人电脑时代。

Why size matters 规模何以事关紧要？

Three trends alarm those who think the digital giants are becoming too powerful for consumers? good. The first is the rise of winner-take-almost-all markets on the internet. Although Microsoft has poured money into its rival search engine, Bing, Google still

accounts for over two-thirds of searches undertaken in America and a whopping 90% or so of them in some European markets. Facebook, too, enjoys a quasi-monopoly in the social-networking arena. Rivals fear that the big four will exploit their dominant status in their main businesses to gain an unfair advantage in other areas—a charge that lies at the heart of the antitrust case against Google.

有些人认为，网络巨头日益发展，过于强大，威胁到了用户的利益。现有三大趋势使这部分人深感忧虑。首先，“赢者全拿”这条定律逐渐确立。微软公司虽投入大量资金开发Bing搜索引擎，但在美国和几个欧洲国家，谷歌搜索引擎的占有率仍分别为三分之二及90%之多。同样，在社交网络的舞台上，脸谱也拥有近乎垄断的地位。竞争对手担心，四大巨头会利用自身在主要业务上的优势地位，在其他领域中获取不平等的竞争优势——这项指责正是针对谷歌的反托拉斯案其核心所在。

Second, the giants want to get consumers hooked on their own “platforms”—

combinations of online services and apps that run on smartphones and tablet computers. These platforms can be very appealing. Apple mints money because its hugely profitable iPhone has, in effect, become a remote control for many people?s digital lives. But there are worries that Apple and its peers are creating “walled gardens” which make it hard for users to move content from one platform to another.

其次，巨头们希望将用户绑定在自己的“平台”之上，即智能手机和平板电脑所使用的一系列在线服务及应用。可不能小觑这些平台的魅力。苹果公司如今财源滚滚来，皆因其利润丰厚的iPhone实际上已遥控着许多人的数字化生活。但人们担忧苹果公司和其他几个网络巨头如今建造的是“围墙高筑的花园”，用户很难在各平台间转移数据。

The third concern is the internet behemoths? habit of gobbling up promising firms before they become a threat. Amazon, which raised $3 billion in a rare bond issue this week, has splashed out on firms such as Zappos, an online shoe retailer that had ambitions to rival it. Facebook and Google have made big acquisitions too, such as Instagram and

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AdMob, some of which have drawn intense scrutiny from regulators.

其三，这些网络巨兽有个习惯，就是看准一些颇有前途的公司，在其羽翼未丰之时便将其吞并。本周，亚马逊公司少有地发行了债券，筹得三十亿美元。之前亚马逊曾一掷千金，买下数家公司，其中不乏在线鞋类零售商Zappos这种之前雄心勃勃要与亚马逊一较高下的企业。脸谱和谷歌也有过一些大型的收购活动（如Instagram和AdMob），部分还受到监管部门的严格审查。

So far the watchdogs have focused on surgical strikes, in areas such as online search and the e-book market (where Apple is under investigation for alleged cartel-like behaviour with several publishers). Their goal has been to get swift settlements with negotiated remedies that curtail bad behaviour.

截至目前，监管部门都集中精力采取一些切中要害的打击措施，针对诸如网络搜索和电子书（苹果公司被控与几家出版商采取了垄断行为，目前正接受调查）等市场。他们的目标是通过协商一致的补救办法，减少垄断行为，快速解决问题。

Some critics think that is too weak. There have been calls for Google to be chopped up into two independent firms, severing its search business from its other activities. Tim Wu, a professor at Columbia Law School and consultant to the FTC, has even argued that in the interests of promoting competition, big “information monopolies” such as Apple and Google should be forced to choose between being providers of digital content, producers of hardware or information distributors (via such things as cloud-computing services). 有评论人士认为，如此措施过于薄弱。有人要求谷歌分解为两家独立的公司，使搜索业务和其他业务相互分离。哥伦比亚法学院教授、FTC顾问吴修铭（Tim Wu）甚至认为，为了促进竞争，苹果、谷歌这种“垄断信息企业”应只能在数字产品供应商、硬件生产商和信息发布商（通过云计算服务等技术实现）中三者选其一。

The danger is that such corporate butchery would do more harm than good. The fact that people have flocked to big web firms? platforms suggests that consumers are

perfectly willing to trade some openness for convenience and ease-of-use. And if they do want to change providers, the cost of doing so has fallen dramatically in the broadband era. Switching to a new search engine or music service takes a matter of seconds. And this time, rather than there being one dominant player (as Microsoft was for a while), there is a war of all against all (see article).

采取以上措施的风险在于，这种企业大屠杀可能弊大于利。人们扎堆选择大型网络公司提供的平台，这表明只要方便、易于使用，即使兼容性稍差用户也是完全接受的。若用户真的想更换服务供应商，这也容易，因为在宽带时代这样做的代价已大幅下降。换新的搜索引擎或者音乐网站不过是花个几秒钟的事情。而这一次，占优势的竞争者可不止一个（就像微软在一段时间内那样），相反却是群雄割据大乱斗（详见此文）。

Smartphones powered by Google?s Android operating system have come from nowhere to dominate the market, eclipsing Apple?s iPhone. Amazon?s Kindle tablet is going head-to-head with the iPad. In social networking Google+ is fighting Facebook. And Facebook and Apple, along with Microsoft, now have designs on Google?s dominance in search. Smaller firms such as Twitter are also keen to join the giants? ranks, and have rebuffed marriage offers from them. Facebook itself was a start-up just eight years ago.

采用谷歌安卓系统的手机已横空出世，一跃成为智能手机市场的佼佼者，使iPhone黯然失

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色。亚马逊的Kindle平板电脑正与苹果的iPad斗得你死我活。社交网络领域，Google+现在与脸谱针锋相对。而脸谱网、苹果，还有微软则垂涎谷歌在搜索领域的霸主地位，蠢蠢欲动。像Twitter这种小点的公司同样拼力相争，意欲跻身巨头之列，还一口回绝了巨头们提供的合并机会。而短短8年前，脸谱自己也不过初出茅庐。

Schumpeter 2.0 升级版熊彼特

Indeed, the tech world is changing so fast that it brings to mind Joseph Schumpeter?s comment about the “perennial gale of creative destruction” that sweeps through

economies as innovative insurgents take on entrenched incumbents. Microsoft?s antitrust problems now seem less vital than the fact that, even while it tangled with regulators, the giant squid failed to sense that the commercial currents had shifted against it. The four big fish nowadays also have a reputation for arrogance and plenty of enemies. If they really want to keep the trustbusters at bay, they should not let their size go to their heads.

的确，技术界的变革如此之快，令人想起了约瑟夫?熊彼特对“具有创造性破坏力的永恒风暴1”的注释。这场“风暴”像个富有创新精神的叛乱者，席卷经济领域，要反抗现有权威。当年，即便微软与监管部门有纠葛，这只大乌贼也没有意识到自己正逆商界潮流而动。这点在如今看来，似乎比微软的垄断行为更能说明问题。众所周知，四大巨头目中无人，树敌不少。若真想远远避开反托拉斯者，它们就不应让规模优势冲昏头脑。

from the print edition | Leaders

注1:Creative destruction:At its most basic, \Zerst?rung) describes the way in which capitalist economic development arises out of the destruction of some prior economic order, and this is largely the sense implied by the German Marxist sociologist Werner Sombart who has been credited[1] with the first use of these terms in his work Krieg und Kapitalismus (\the earlier work of Marx, however, the idea of creative destruction or annihilation (German: Vernichtung) implies not only that capitalism destroys and reconfigures previous economic orders, but also that it must ceaselessly devalue existing wealth (whether through war, dereliction, or regular and periodic economic crises) in order to clear the ground for the creation of new wealth

http://www.ecocn.org/thread-174211-1-1.html 译者：contrary

[2012.12.01] Ratan Tata’s legacy 印度资本主义：塔塔的传家宝

【导读】印度塔塔集团掌管着一个庞大的商业帝国。董事长拉丹·塔塔将于下月28日退休。塔塔集团的繁荣会给印度资本主义带来怎样的启示？

Capitalism in India 印度的资本主义

Ratan Tata?s legacy 拉丹?塔塔的传家宝

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India should learn from the career of its most powerful businessman 印度应向本国最厉害的商人借鉴经验

Dec 1st 2012 | from the print edition

IT IS easy to understand why Ratan Tata, who retires as chairman of Tata Sons on December 28th, is important. The conglomerate he runs is India?s largest private-sector concern, accounting for 7% of the stockmarket. It pays 3% of all India?s corporate tax and 5% of all its excise duty. You can live in a house, drive a car, make a phone call, season your food, insure yourself, wear a watch, walk in shoes, cool yourself with air-conditioning and stay in a hotel, all courtesy of Tata firms. Polite, elegant and reserved, Mr Tata has been the king of India?s corporate scene for the past two decades. Indians look up to him in much the same way that Italians once looked up to Gianni Agnelli at Fiat or Americans did to J.P. Morgan.

塔塔之子（Tata Sons）的董事长拉丹?塔塔【1】将于12月28日退休【2】。他是一个重要人物，原因不难理解。他经营着印度私营部门规模最大的的联合企业，其市值占整个股票市场的7%。其支付的企业税占印度全国的3%，消费税占5%。你住的房子、开的车、用的手机、食品上加的调料、为自己买的保险、戴的手表、走路穿的鞋子、给自己降温的空调、住的酒店，都可以是塔塔公司所赐。塔塔先生是一位高雅自矜的谦谦君子，在过去二十多年里，他一直是印度企业大军的“总司令”。他备受印度人民的敬重，正如过去菲亚特汽车（Fiat）的阿涅利?吉亚尼（Gianni Agnelli）【3】之于意大利人，约翰·皮尔鹏·摩根（J.P. Morgan）之于美国人。

In some ways, though, the reverence for Mr Tata is odd. He is not a geekish

entrepreneur, like the high-tech wizards in Bangalore. He is an old-style dynast—the fifth generation to run his 144-year-old firm. He took time to grow into the job: when he took the reins in 1991 he struggled to assert himself. Even today, critics accuse him of being regal and secretive—and snipe that the group?s most successful business, TCS, its technology arm, is the one he left most alone.

不过从某些方面看，塔塔先生这么德高望重是不合常理的。与班加罗尔（Bangalore）【4】的高科技天才不同，他并不是一个只会埋头创业的人。他出身世家，是一个比较传统的人。塔塔公司已有144年的历史，而他是第5代接班人。他曾花了一段时间适应这份工作：在1991年接手公司时，为树立威信他下了不少功夫。即便是今天，一些批评家仍指责他过于威严、城府极深——还抨击他对集团里经营最成功的科技部门TCS【5】最不上心。

Nor can Tata be hailed as a financial paragon. After a wave of takeovers during the past decade, its return on capital is mediocre. The new boss, Cyrus Mistry, who comes from outside the family (Mr Tata has no children), may have to reorganise something of a ragbag conglomerate: alongside the stars like TCS or Jaguar Land Rover, a luxury carmaker, there is also a long trail of flabby and indebted businesses (see article).

塔塔也不能被誉为金融界的典范。在过去十年里，塔塔接管了一系列公司，可这一波收购的资本回报不多。新总裁塞勒斯?密斯特里（Cyrus Mistry）不是家族内部的成员（塔塔先生没有子嗣）。他接手的这个联合企业就是一个“大杂烩”，什么样的业务都有，因此，他可能必须做一些重组工作：塔塔有像TCS、捷豹路虎（奢侈品牌汽车制造商）【6】这样的知名公司，也有很多效率低下、负债累累的企业（另见文）。

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And yet, for all that, Mr Tata?s career carries two powerful lessons for an introverted and corruption-obsessed India. First, that India has far more to gain than lose from the outside world. And second, that a company can be a force for progress.

然而，尽管如此，塔塔先生的职业生涯为闭关的、严重腐败的印度提供了两大经验。第一，外部世界给印度带来的收获远比损失要多。第二，公司也能成为进步的力量。 The hereditary ruler as hero 世袭统治者的英雄之路

Globalisation came easily to Mr Tata, who trained as an architect in America. Even today he would rather discuss car designs with young engineers than read management

reviews. That education, and a streak of perfectionism, have served him well. He realised early on that as India?s economy opened in the 1990s its firms would have to raise their standards, benchmark themselves against the very best, and if necessary buy

competitors. His foreign takeovers included Corus, a giant British steel firm, and Jaguar Land Rover. The first has been a financial disaster, the second a triumph. But both showed that Indian firms—and those from other emerging economies—deserve their place at the top table of global business.

塔塔先生曾在美国接受过建筑师培训，他很容易就能接受全球化。即便是今天，他也宁愿与年轻的工程师讨论汽车设计，而不是看管理评审报告。那样的教育背景，再加上几分追求完美的个性，让他受益良多。早些时候他就意识到，自20世纪90年代印度经济对外开放以来，印度的公司就必须提高自身水平，用最完美的标准要求自己，必要的话，还应收购竞争对手。他收购的国外公司包括英国钢铁巨头康利斯集团（Corus）【7】，还有捷豹路虎。前一场收购已经成为一个金融灾难，而后一场打了胜仗。但它们都表明了一个事实：印度的公司以及其他新兴经济体都足以在全球商业的顶尖层占一席之位。

Indians would love to claim that this lesson has been thoroughly learnt. Names like Mittal and Infosys are known all round the world. But India remains a country with too many protected industries, from shopping to coal mining and newspapers. Mr Tata himself was not always as keen to open up at home as he was to venture abroad. But for the most part he was a firm advocate of globalisation.

印度人当然会说，他们已经彻底掌握了这个经验。像米塔尔（Mittal）【8】、印孚瑟斯（Infosys）【9】这样的品牌如今已是世界闻名。但在印度，从购物、煤矿到报纸行业，国内大量行业仍在国家的庇佑之下。塔塔先生本人热衷于在境外进行风险投资，但他并不总是愿意开放自己在国内的企业。大体而言，他仍是全球化的忠实倡导者。

The other lesson from Mr Tata has to do with integrity. His group has not entirely avoided scandals. It faced a rogue trader in the early 2000s, and did not completely escape the furore over the bent award of telecoms licences in 2008. No doubt

somewhere today, in this firm with $100 billion of sales, funny business is taking place. Rivals grumble that Tata?s current respectability masks a past spent toadying up to

politicians in the years before and after India?s independence in 1947. But the fact is that Mr Tata, in public, and by widespread repute in private too, has stood against corruption. His attitude towards India?s political class has been one of polite distance. He has long attacked what he calls “vested interests”—code for crony capitalism, in which firms make profits by buying favours from officials and politicians.

从塔塔先生身上学到的另一个经验和正直的作风有关。他的集团也不是一点丑闻都没有。

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21世纪初期，该公司遇到了一名“流氓交易员”【10】；2008年，它经历了印度电信公司运营牌照分配丑闻【11】，到现在都还没完全撇清关系。毫无疑问，在销售额达1000亿美元的公司里内部，某些地方一定出了“故障”。竞争对手抱怨道，在1947年印度独立前后，塔塔一直向政客献殷勤。可这样的过去却被塔塔目前的名望掩盖了。但事实是，在公共场合，塔塔先生反对贪污；私下里也如此，在这一点人尽皆知。他一直礼貌地和印度政界保持距离。长久以来，他也一直抨击自己所指的“既得利益”——裙带资本主义的代称：公司向官员、政客行贿，得到好处，以此获利。

Looking in the mirror 照照镜子，自我反省

Crony capitalism has seldom seemed more of a threat to India. Back in the 1990s, the country?s leading firms—technology companies as well as Tata Sons—went to

extraordinary lengths to be squeaky-clean. Family firms, which still control about 40% of India?s stockmarket profits, professionalised their management and listed their shares. But over the past decade things have gone backwards. The new money has been made in “rent-seeking” sectors, such as mining and infrastructure, with a lot of government involvement and little foreign competition; some mouth-wateringly large corruption scandals have occurred there. Too many family firms have lost interest in improving governance. Some, unwilling to relinquish control by issuing shares, have piled on debt, and now that they are in trouble, are bullying state-run banks to “extend and pretend”—roll over their loans rather than write them down. Such firms thus become state-supported zombies.

裙带资本主义对印度造成的威胁似乎很少像现在这么严重。回溯20世纪九十年代，印度的各个龙头公司（科技公司以及“塔塔之子”）为做到清正廉明而殚精毕力。家族企业仍控制着40%左右的印度股市利润。它们将管理专业化，并公开上市。但在过去十年里，情况却在倒退。人们在“寻租部门”【12】（比如矿业、基础设施业）敛财，因为政府干涉多、国外竞争少；这些行业里出现了一些腐败丑闻，其涉及金额之大让人垂涎三尺。太多家族企业已失去了改善治理的兴趣。有些已是债台高筑，因为它们不愿意发行股票，放弃控制权。由于身陷困境，他们便欺负国有银行——让它们“假装不知，延期还款”。这些公司并未对债务的账面价值进行减记，反而让它像雪球那样越滚越大。如此一来，这样的公司就成为政府支持下的木头人。

The Indian public is fed up. Anti-corruption agencies are newly vigilant. Business has become a hall of mirrors in which fingers point everywhere. Suspicion is so pervasive that even clean officials are terrified to prod along vital projects by clean companies for fear of being accused of favouritism.

印度的公众已经受够了。反腐机构最近才有所警觉。商业已成为一个装满镜子的大厅，可以发现到处都存在着欺诈。人们疑心很重，即便是清官，也不敢扶持白圭无玷的公司经营的重大项目，因为他们害怕被指控为徇私偏袒。

The problems in parts of the private sector have thus become a macroeconomic issue. Investment by private companies has slumped—the main reason why economic growth has slowed from 10% to about 5.5%.

因此，某些私营部门的弊病就变成了一个宏观经济问题。私企的投资骤减——这就是经济

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增长从10%降到5.5%的主要原因。

It is easy to blame all this on corrupt politicians. But somebody is paying the bribes. By standing out against graft so publicly and consistently, Mr Tata was ahead of his time. The irony is that by doing so he was preparing the way for the end of businesses such as his own. As India?s economy modernises and becomes more open and transparent, the rationale may disappear for sprawling, hereditary conglomerates, which use the bonds of kin to deal with a shortage of trust, and pool their managers and capital because the outside markets for these resources do not work well.

将这一切归咎于腐败的政客的确很容易。可是，有腐败就意味着有人行贿。塔塔先生反对钱权交易，既公开昭示， 又矢志不渝，在这一点上他是走在时代的前列。讽刺的是，他这么做也是在为类似他自己“塔塔之子”的一批企业准备“后事”。当印度的经济走向现代化，越来越开放、透明，那些囊括各种业务的大型家族企业就没有继续存在的理由了。之前，他们可以利用亲缘关系对付信任短缺的问题，共享经理人才和资本，因为那时这些资源的外部市场运作得并不好。

To that extent, Mr Tata may come to be seen as both the last of one breed of feudal corporate leaders—and the first ofanother more open bunch. Anybody who cares about India?s future, especially its billion consumers, should hope that the transition picks up speed again.

从这种程度上讲，塔塔先生可以视作封建企业领袖的仅存硕果，也可以被看成新一批更具开放心态企业家的领军人物。无论是谁，只要关心印度的未来，尤其是它的十亿消费大军，都应该希望过渡期能再短点儿。

Background 【1】拉丹?塔塔

拉丹·塔塔是印度企业界的杰出代表。他掌管着一个庞大的商业帝国，经营领域从茶叶到钢铁、IT无所不包。

1991年，在集团创建150年的时候，塔塔成为集团董事长。

那时，印度开始逐渐脱离社会主义，Tata集团下面大大小小有250家公司，其中许多公司经营状况很差。

塔塔将公司数缩减到90家，并将Tata Consultancy募股上市。 至今，Tata Consultancy的股价上涨了50%。

塔塔不满足于自己的企业只在国内打拼，他一直敦促管理人士到海外开拓业务。 【2】塔塔退休

塔塔之子公司（Tata Sons）董事会日前选举塞勒斯·密斯特里（Cyrus P Mistry）接替拉丹·塔塔。Tata Sons公司是塔塔集团（Tata）的控股公司，73岁的现任董事长拉丹·塔塔（Ratan Tata）将于2012年12月退休。

现年43岁的塞勒斯并非塔塔家族的成员，而是亿万富豪、建筑业大亨帕朗吉·密斯特里（Pallonji Mistry）的小儿子。帕朗吉持有Tata Sons公司18.4%的股份，是其最大的股东。

【3】意大利显赫家族阿涅利——亚菲特汽车公司

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在意大利，阿涅利家族是财富与荣耀的象征，人们习惯地将它称为“王族”。由阿涅利家族创办的菲亚特汽车公司，如今已成为意大利最大的工业集团。

但是据最近报道，这个家族的继承人，现任菲亚特副总裁的埃尔肯因吸毒过量昏迷，如此轰动的消息让阿涅利家族蒙上一层阴影。目前,埃尔肯已经暂停了在菲亚特集团的全部工作,开始接受戒毒治疗。 【4】班加罗尔（Bangalore） 印度的“硅谷”

【5】TCS 塔塔咨询服务公司

Tata Consultancy Service，简称TCS，是印度著名的企业集团—塔塔集团的控股子公司。 成立于1968年，成立目的是为了通过信息技术来有效解决印度工业中的管理问题。经过近35年的发展，该公司已经成为印度软件业的旗舰。 【6】捷豹路虎——顶级奢华品牌的英国汽车制造商 塔塔旗下 【7】康力斯集团——英国金属公司

是一个国际性金属工业集团，总部设在伦敦，是世界排名第八的钢铁制造商 【8】米塔尔——钢铁公司 印尼 《福布斯》上仅次于比尔盖茨和巴菲特

世界最大的钢铁企业之一，是著名的LNM控股集团和伊斯帕特钢铁集团在2004年10月完成合并后重新命名的。

【9】印孚瑟斯——提供咨询与软件IT服务的印度技术公司 总部位于印度“硅谷”班加罗尔 【10】2000 塔塔茶叶公司收购了比它自身大三倍的英国泰特莱茶叶公司（Tetley Tea）身为旗下钢铁企业Tata Steel董事长的塔塔前不久指挥公司斥资120亿美元收购了规模是其四倍的英-荷钢铁企业Corus，合并后的公司一举成为世界第五大钢铁生产商。 【11】2008印度电信丑闻

印度最高法庭日前要求政府取消多家电信公司在一次违法销售中获得的共122个运营牌照。这次违法销售被认为是印度建国以来最大的腐败丑闻之一。

塔塔集团旗下手机业务部门也在涉嫌以低价获得电信频谱分配一案的名单之列。 【12】寻租

寻租就是寻求经济租金的简称，又称为竞租，是为获得和维持垄断地位从而得到垄断利润（亦即垄断租金）所从事的一种非生产性寻利活动的。

整个寻租活动的全部经济损失要远远超过传统垄断理论中的“纯损”三角形。

http://www.ecocn.org/thread-174283-1-1.html 译者：_易雪_

[2012.12.01] The penis 阳具

The penis 阳具

Cross to bare

胯下的“十字架”[注1]

Anatomy of a seminal work

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剖析一本“精作”[注2]

Dec 1st 2012 | from the print edition

God?s Doodle: The Life and Times of the Penis. By Tom Hickman. Square Peg; 234 pages; ￡12.99. Buy fromAmazon.co.uk

《神的涂鸦：阳具史》，汤姆·希科曼著。方钉出版社，234页，售价12.99英镑。欲购点击英国亚马逊

Behind the figleaf 遮羞布之后的面貌

THE problem with penises, as Richard Rudgley, a British anthropologist, admitted on a television programme some years ago, is that once you start noticing them, you “tend to see willies pretty much everywhere”. They are manifest in skyscrapers, depicted in art and loom large in literature. They pop up on the walls of schoolyards across the world, and on the walls of temples both modern and ancient. The Greeks and Japanese rendered them on statues that stood at street corners. Hindus worship the lingam in temples across the land. Even the cross on which Jesus was hung is considered by some to be a representation of male genitalia.

正如英国人类学家理查德·路德格雷（Richard Rudgley）几年前在电视上受访时承认的那样，有关阳具的一个问题在于你一旦开始注意它们，“它们几乎随处可见”。它们体现在摩天大楼的形状里，艺术作品经常描绘它们，而其在文学作品中更是地位突出。在全世界各地的学校里都可以在墙上找到阳具的涂鸦，古代或现代的庙宇中的墙上经常也绘有阳具。在希腊和日本，大街转角的雕像常常露出阳具。印度各地的庙宇内都供有林伽像（阴茎状石像）[注3]。就算是耶稣殉难的十字架也被有些人看作是男性性器的象征[注4]。

Yet the penis has also been shamed into hiding through the ages. One night in 415BC, Athens?s street-corner statues were dismembered en masse. Stone penises were still causing anxiety in the late 20th century, when the Victoria and Albert Museum in London pulled out of storage a stone figleaf in case a member of the royal family wanted to see its 18-foot (5.5-metre) replica of Michelangelo?s “David”. Nothing, save the vagina, which is neither as easy nor as childishly satisfying to scrawl on a wall, manages to be so sacred and so profane at once. This paradox makes it an object of fascination. Tom Hickman, a Sussex-based writer and journalist, tells the story of its ups and downs with enthusiasm and a mostly straight face in “God?s Doodle”, a biography of what the dust jacket calls man?s “most precious ornament”.

但同时阳具也在历史上一直羞于抛头露面。公元前415年，雅典大大小小的街角雕像在一夜之间被集体遭到“阉割”[注5]。即使在20世纪末还是有人被石阳具困扰。维多利亚和阿尔伯特博物馆里收藏这一尊18英尺（5.5米）的米开朗琪罗（Michelangelo）大卫像复本，有皇室成员想要观赏该雕像时该博物馆还是会拿出收藏着的石树叶为雕像遮羞。除了阴道以外，没有任何事物像阴茎一样既神圣又亵渎，而相比阴道，在墙上涂鸦阴茎要更容易，也更能带来幼稚的满足感。阳具本身这种自相矛盾的特质让很多人为它着迷。居于英国苏塞克斯郡的作家兼记者汤姆·希科曼（Tom Hickman）在《神的涂鸦》一书中以饱含热情且大体上一本正经的语调讨论了阳具背后的历史起伏。在这本阳具历史书的书皮上写着

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阳具是男性“最珍贵的装饰品”。

Mr Hickman examines his subject from various angles: its physical attributes, its role in society, its vulnerabilities and the “violent mechanics” of its fundamental purpose.

Referring to sources that range from parliamentary records to Howard Stern, Mr Hickman goes, like so many men have gone before, where the penis takes him, and in the process answers a number of questions. Did Shylock want to castrate Antonio in “The Merchant of Venice”? Possibly. Is ingesting semen harmful? Quite the opposite. Mr Hickman claims it could protect against breast cancer. Where does Viagra get its name? Through the fusion of “virility” and “Niagara”, as in the falls. “God?s Doodle” is a seminal work.

希科曼从不同的角度检视了阳具这个主题：其生理特征，其在社会中扮演的角色，其弱点以及其基本功能的“激烈机制”。希科曼所引用的资料从议会记录到霍华德·斯特恩（Howard Stern）[注6]无所不包。在将这些资料编织成书时，希科曼和他之前无数的男人一样，“让下半身带领着他前进”。在这个过程中，他也给很多问题提出了解答。在《威尼斯商人》中夏洛克是否想要阉割安东尼奥？[注7]也许吧。吞食精液是否有害？恰恰相反。希科曼声称其有助于防止乳癌。伟哥是怎么得名的？利用英文“阳刚气概”（virility）和尼亚加拉（Niagara）大瀑布拼凑而成。《神的涂鸦》真可以称得上是一部“精作”。

译者注：

1 - cross to bare，俗语，正确形式为cross to bear，意思是各人需要自己背负，别人无法帮助的罪业、苦恼。中文一般译为“背上的十字架”，取耶稣基督自己背负刑具十字架上刑场的意思。以讹传讹，有时会被误写作cross to bare。这里取文中第一段所指十字架有暗喻阳具的意思，和bare（暴露）联系，幽了一默。

2 - seminal 形容文学作品一般指影响深远的巨作。其原意为semen（精液）的形容词，此处双关。引申义来自于“蕴涵各种可能性”这一特征。和中文“精”的褒义引申有异曲同工的意味。

3 - lingam，阴茎形状的石像，代表印度教主神湿婆，是印度教庙宇的主要供奉像之一。象征男性湿婆神的创造能力。

4 - 十字架是最古老的符号之一，自古很多文明宗教中就存在该符号，在古罗马时期用作刑具，因耶稣在十字架上受难被拿来作为基督教象征，导致其本来涵义很多都被埋没。有学说认为古代十字符号代表男性阳具。该涵义和基督教没有直接联系。

5 - 古希腊半身像（herma，即方石柱上方放置胸像）在石柱下方会雕上阳具作为纪念。在公元前415，雅典大军在伯罗奔尼撒战争中即将攻打锡拉库萨（Syracuse）前夕，雅典城内所有的半身像一夜之间失去了其阳具。当时这被看作是非常亵渎的一项罪行，被认为于战不详。虽然元凶最终未找到，但一般认为是奸细所为。

6 - 霍华德·斯特恩（Howard Stern），美国电台电视主持人，曾连续近十年被评为美国电台第一人，以直言不讳，甚至可说是富争议性的风格著称。因此他也是历史上因为在主持节目时说脏话被罚总金额最高的人。

7 - 《威尼斯商人》中犹太奸商夏洛克要求主人公安尼奥如果还不起钱就得割下“一磅肉”，其好友妻子鲍西娅用智解决了这一问题。有观点认为夏洛克的要求是阉割，但莎翁把其婉转化了。

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http://www.ecocn.org/thread-174467-1-1.html译者：nayilus

[2012.12.05] New film: “Life of Pi” 新影片《少年派的奇幻漂流》

New film: “Life of Pi”

新影片：《少年派的奇幻漂流》

Storytelling in a new dimension 在新维度下讲述的故事

Dec 5th 2012, 14:01 by F.S.

YANN MARTEL's fantasy novel, a life-affirming story about a shipwrecked boy in a boat with only a Bengal tiger called Richard Parker for company, was initially rejected by five publishers—yet it went on to win the Man Booker prize in 2002. Its adaptation to the screen has been similarly arduous with several directors paired to the project over the past decade before it was branded un-filmable.

扬·马特尔（Yann Martel）的奇幻小说是一则生命的讴歌：故事中一个遭遇船难的小男孩被困在一艘小艇上，他唯一的同伴是一只名叫理查德·帕克的孟加拉虎。刚开始有五个出版商回绝了这本小说，但其最终却在2002年拿下了布克奖。而将小说改编成电影的过程也同样曲折艰难，过去十年中有数位导演曾一度打算接下这个任务，但最终都不了了之。这部小说也因此被认为无法改编成电影。

But Ang Lee?s new film is a triumph. Mr Lee, the director, has already brought his sharp sense of visual balance to a diverse range of films, from the magic martial arts of

\2000) to Wyoming ranch-life in \gong in 2005. Here he offers a dazzling display of technical prowess, marrying

breathtaking feline effects and sumptuous visuals with an intrinsic yet somehow invisible application of 3D. Also, Mr Lee has understood that Mr Martel's achievement was not just to make the audience believe in Richard Parker but to believe the relationship that develops between Richard Parker and Pi.

李安的这部新影片是一个巨大的胜利。李导曾用自己敏锐的视觉平衡感拍摄出很多主题迥异的电影，从《卧虎藏龙》中充满魔力的武术（2000年拿下奥斯卡最佳外语片）到《断背山》里描述的怀俄明州农场生活（2005年为他赢下了奥斯卡最佳导演的荣耀）。在本片中他展示了自己令人目眩的效果技术造诣。他利用全片无所不在却又让人难以察觉的立体视觉效果，将激动人心的老虎特效和美仑美奂的视觉效果结合在一起。同时，李导清楚知道马特尔的成就不在于让观众相信理查德·帕克的故事，而在于让他们相信理查德·帕克和派之间建立起来的关系。

The film really finds its sea legs when the ship sinks on its journey across the Pacific from India to Canada. As Piscine \to a Canadian writer (a necessarily bland Rafe Spall) the journey is replayed in vivid flashbacks. Mr Lee finds emotion in the smallest gaze and movement. Pi's terror, when he realises that the ship has sunk, his family are surely dead and he is sharing a boat with a growling tiger, gives way to pity as his soaked companion paws pitifully at a raft to get back into the boat, and then to wild-eyed dominance when, in a moment of

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starving madness, he stares the animal down. The companionship between Pi and Richard Parker grows with such tenderness that when the two are shown ragged with hunger and nearing death, it is genuinely hard to know whether to feel more sorry for man or beast.

随着一艘从印度驶往加拿大的轮船在旅途中沉没，影片开始变得渐入佳境。长大后的主人公皮西尼·帕特尔（绰号“派”）向一位加拿大作家（沉闷的拉菲·斯波（Rafe Spall）很适合这一角色）叙述他年轻时这一重要时刻。于是这段奇妙旅程在生动的回忆场景中开始重现。李导在最细微的注视和动作中都能发掘出感情。当派意识到轮船已经沉没，他的家人肯定都已丧生，而他只能和一只咆哮的猛虎挤在一只小艇上时，他内心充满了恐惧。但当他看见他那全身湿透的同伴可怜兮兮地拍打着筏子，想要回到小艇上时他内心的恐惧化成了怜悯。再后来当他和帕克因为饥饿陷于近乎疯狂的状态时，他的怜悯又变成了狂暴的支配感，并最终用目光震慑住了对方。派和帕克之间的伙伴情谊日益增长，那种感情是如此温柔，以致当片子放到他们因为饥饿而奄奄一息的时候，你会发现很难说清自己到底是更可怜那个男孩，还是更可怜那只老虎。

Although the earlier scenes of Pi and his family in Pondicherry are inevitably less exciting, they do establish the story's essential questions about God and belief. There's humanity and humour too that keeps the film grounded even at its maddest moments. Newcomer Suraj Sharma is well cast as Pi, with a lightness that offsets the big theological questions that could easily have overwhelmed the film.

片首派和他的家人在本地治里的几幕戏精彩程度略逊一筹，这是不可避免的。但这几幕戏实际上提出了整个故事关于神和信仰的本质问题。即使是在故事最疯狂的时刻，本片都也还保留着人性和幽默，让片子不致于失控。新人苏拉·沙玛（Suraj Sharma）非常适合派这个角色，他身上带有一种轻松的感觉，可以抵销那些本来可能会轻易压垮这一角色的沉重宗教问题。

Hollywood has searched high and low for the next “Avatar”—James Cameron's

pioneering 3D epic that was released in 2009. But from crude eleventh-hour conversions such as \and technically brilliant but lifeless efforts such as Martin Scorsese's “Hugo”, no one since Mr Cameron has made a film that was just simply better in 3D. Until now.

好莱坞一直在到处寻找下一部《阿凡达》，希望能有一部电影可以继承詹姆斯·卡梅隆（James Cameron）2009年那部划时代的立体巨片。但不管是粗制滥造、在即将上映前才急急转换成立体版的《诸神之战》，还是因为立体特效使用过度让人头晕眼花的《爱丽丝梦游仙境》，甚或在立体技术上做得很好，但片子本身缺乏生气的一些作品——如马丁·斯科塞（Martin Scorsese）执导的《雨果》——都令人失望。在《阿凡达》之后一直都没有一部电影真正能体现出立体版相对于平面版的优越性。而现在我们终于有幸观赏到这样一部影片。

“Life of Pi” feels like an art-house film that has made clever use of a multimillion-dollar budget. The 3D is so subtle that it is sometimes hard to spot, until you realise that you jumped that bit higher when the tiger leapt from under the boat's canopy and cowered that bit more when Pi is hurled into waves that seem to crash right through the screen. It is a visceral epic in which special effects always serve a purpose. The colour-saturated cinematography and pink Pacific dawns where the sky melts into the sea lend a surreal

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look that complements the over-arching question about the limits of our belief.

《少年派的奇幻漂流》感觉就像是一部巧妙使用了几百万美元预算的艺术片。片中的立体效果非常微妙，有时很难察觉，但当老虎从小艇上的帆布下跃出时，或是当派坠入似乎要从银幕上冲击而出的海浪时，你会发现自己感觉到的惊吓和恐惧要比观看平面版电影时略多一些，这时你就会意识到这是一部立体影片。这是一部发自肺腑的巨片，片中所有的特效都有其目的。色彩饱满的摄影以及太平洋上将天空和海洋融在一起的粉红色黄昏赋予本片一种超现实的感觉。贯穿影片的中心问题是人类信仰的极限，影片超现实的视觉感受和这一现实问题的讨论起到了很好的互补作用。

Another specific reason why 3D works so well here is because the extra dimension, like this story, is about distance and the narrowing of it. The technology reinforces the physical push and pull between man and beast on the boat and the metaphysical one between man and God. But beyond the 3D technology and special effects, “Life of Pi” is, pure and simply, good storytelling. Too good to be true? As Pi says, \mere believability, what are you living for?\

立体效果这么适合本片还有一个原因。电影中加入的额外立体维度和距离以及距离的拉近有关，而这则故事的主题恰恰也是讨论人和野兽之间的距离和这种距离是如何缩小的。特效技术加强了小艇上人和野兽之间真实存在的相互吸引和排斥，也加深了人与神之间抽象玄妙的相互吸引和排斥。但即使排除立体技术和电影特效不顾，《少年派的奇幻漂流》从最简单纯粹的角度看也是一则非常动人的故事。好得难以置信？正如派所说的：“如果仅仅是难以置信就让你裹足不前，那么你到底是为了什么在活着？”

“Life of Pi” is out in America now and will be in British cinemas from December 20th 《少年派的奇幻漂流》现在已在美国上映，将于12月20日在英国上映。 http://www.ecocn.org/thread-174640-1-1.html译者：nayilus

[2012.12.08]The Big Four auditors Accountable 问责四大审计

The Big Four auditors 四大审计

Accountable 问责

Two controversies ensnare the Big Four 四大会计事务所为双重纠纷所困

Dec 8th 2012 | NEW YORK AND SHANGHAI | from the print edition

BUYING Autonomy, a British software company, once seemed like a good idea to

Hewlett-Packard (HP). Western investors were once eager to buy into Chinese companies that had secured listings on American exchanges. Neither idea seems so hot now. Both these changes in sentiment raise awkward questions for the Big Four accounting firms: Deloitte, Ernst & Young, PwC and KPMG.

收购英国软件公司Autonomy对惠普（Hewlett-Packard）来说曾经似乎是个不错的主意。

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西方投资者过去对获准在美国证券交易所上市交易的中国企业趋之若鹜。这两个观点在现在看来都并不那么诱人了。这些观点的转变给四大会计事务所——德勤（Deloitte）、安永（Ernst & Young）、普华永道（PwC）和毕马威（KPMG）——带来了不少难题。

HP first. The computer giant announced last month that it was writing down the value of Autonomy by $8.8 billion, in part because of “accounting improprieties,

misrepresentations and disclosure failures ”. (Mike Lynch , Autonomy?s former boss, denies the charges and has set up a website demanding that HP detail its accusations.) With so few global auditors to choose from, a saga like this ends up sucking them all in. Deloitte was Autonomy?s auditor; Ernst & Young is Hewlett-Packard?s. KPMG provided advice on the deal. PwC has been hired by HP to sort through the mess.

先说惠普。电脑巨头上月宣布对Autonomy 的价值减记88亿美元，此举部分是因为Autonomy“财务违规、不实陈述和披露不到位”所致。（Autonomy前老板麦克?林奇（Mike Lynch）否认了这些指控并开设了一家网站要求惠普公布对其指控的细节。）由于可供选择的全球性审计公司屈指可数，四大最终统统陷入这一漩涡之中。德勤曾为Autonomy提供审计服务；安永是惠普的审计事务所。毕马威为该收购交易提供咨询服务。普华永道受雇于惠普来处理善后清理工作。

If HP?s claims are true, Deloitte, Autonomy?s auditor, will be the one in the cross-hairs . If they are false, Ernst & Young, which will sign off HP?s huge write-down of Autonomy, will have a lot of explaining to do. HP says the third of the Big Four, KPMG, “audited” the deal; KPMG says it provided only a “limited set of non-audit-related services”.

如果惠普的指控属实，Autonomy的审计事务所德勤将会成为众矢之的。若不属实，签名同意惠普减记Autonomy价值的安永会百口莫辩其咎。惠普表示四大中的第三家事务所的毕马威“审计”了该收购协议；毕马威则认为自己所提供的只是“有限的一系列非审计相关服务。”

Deloitte has most reason to be nervous. As well as auditing Autonomy, it provided $6.7m in non-audit services over seven years, prompting critics to raise familiar questions about conflicts between accountants? auditing duties and their consulting work. Deloitte advised Autonomy on executive pay , for example, something that would be forbidden under America?s Sarbanes-Oxley law, but was permitted in Britain. Moreover, Deloitte

Luxembourg last year announced a close partnership with Autonomy to roll out a piece of Autonomy software.

德勤绝对有理由对此感到紧张。德勤为Autonomy提供审计服务，还在过去的7年里为它提供了价值670万美元的非审计服务，这一事实激起了批评者采用类似的问题向德勤发难：如何解决会计师的审计职责和咨询业务之间的利益冲突。比如说，德勤就高管的薪酬向Autonomy提供建议，这一业务为美国的萨班斯-奥克斯利（Sarbanes-Oxley law）法案所不允，可是在英国却是受到许可的。不仅如此，德勤在卢森堡的合伙公司去年宣布与Autonomy开展紧密的合作，推出一款Autonomy开发的软件。

The HP-Autonomy saga points to another feature of the Big Four?s business model. The quartet may market themselves as seamless global firms but in fact they are a string of legally independent local partnerships. That is why Britain?s Deloitte LLP can do things that would be forbidden for Deloitte LLP in America, despite their common membership in the Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu network.

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惠普—Autonomy事件直指四大商业模式的另外一个特征。四巨头将各自定义为无缝的全球性公司来做自我营销，可实际上它们只是许多在法律上相互独立的本地合伙制企业的集合体。这就是为什么英国德勤能够从事美国德勤被法律禁止从事的业务，尽管它们都是德勤全球（Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu）网络中的普通一员。

On December 3rd this network structure came under attack from another quarter.

America?s Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) charged the Big Four and BDO (a smaller firm) for refusing to share documents related to audits of troubled Chinese firms listed on American exchanges. Chinese divisions of the Big Four have audited several Chinese firms that listed abroad and then tanked. Prominent among these are Longtop Financial, a technology firm that has since been delisted in America, and Sino Forest, which Canadian authorities are investigating for allegedly faking its own forestry assets. 12月3日，这一网络构架受到了来自另一方的打击。美国证券交易委员会（Securities and Exchanges Commission，简称SEC）对四大和德豪会计事务所(规模相对较小)在中国的合伙制企业——德勤华永会计师事务所(Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Certified Public

Accountants Ltd.)、安永华明会计师事务所(Ernst & Young Hua Ming LLP)、毕马威华振会计师事务所(KPMG Huazhen)、普华永道中天会计师事务所(PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian CPAs Ltd.)和大华会计师事务所(BDO China Dahua Co.）提出指控，因为它们拒绝提供与在美国证交所上市但陷入困境的中国公司有关的审计文件。四大在中国的合伙企业曾审计了的几家在国外上市的中国公司，但之后这些公司均破产倒闭。这些公司中最具影响力的是东南融通（Longtop Financial）——已在美国退市的科技企业，和嘉汉林业（Sino Forest）——加拿大监管当局正在调查该企业虚报其所有的林木资产。

American regulators, including the SEC and the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), have been demanding the work papers for the controversial audits from the Chinese affiliates. That puts the auditors in a bind. American regulators must ensure that the foreign auditors of firms listed in America are doing their job properly. But

Chinese laws forbid the sharing of those documents, on the grounds that vaguely defined “state secrets” might surface.

包括SEC和上市公司会计监督委员会（Public Company Accounting Oversight Board，简称PACOB）的美国监管机构，不断要求四大的中国附属企业提交存有疑议的审计工作底稿。这一要求令审计公司陷入进退维谷的境地。美国监管机构必须确保美国上市公司的国外审计机构正确无误地行使它们的职责。但是中国法律以此举可能会泄露定义模糊的“国家机密”为由禁止共享这些文件。

For a while, Sino-American negotiations seemed to be making some progress on a compromise. A few months ago officials from PCAOB were allowed to observe their Chinese counterparts during a “trust-building” exercise. But a meeting between the two sides in November appears to have ended frostily, and the SEC hardened its position this week by declaring that “firms that conduct audits knowing they cannot comply with laws requiring access to these work papers face serious sanctions.” The PCAOB is expected to declare by year?s end that if a foreign auditor has not been inspected properly by American authorities, it will be deregistered.

中美谈判曾一度似乎有所起色，双方在达成妥协上取得一些进展。数月以前，PCAOB的官员在一场“建立信任”的演练中曾被允许观察他们的谈判对手——中国监管机构的工作。但

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是11月双方举行的会谈似乎冷淡收场，而SEC本周强化了其立场宣称“企业在知晓他们无法遵守法律的要求提供相关工作底稿的情况下从事审计业务将会面临严厉的制裁。”预计PACOB会宣布，截至今年年底如果国外审计机构尚未经过美国监管机构严格的检查，它们的审计资格将会被吊销。

If such a rule is upheld by courts and confirmed as policy, it would mean the Big Four?s affiliates in China could lose many multinationals as clients, as American laws require firms to use registered auditors. It might also force the exit of scores of Chinese firms listed in America. Perhaps in anticipation, China Development Bank, a state-run institution, has recently set aside more than $1 billion to help smaller firms leave American exchanges.

如果这一规定得到法庭的支持并且确认为一项政策来施行，由于美国法律要求企业采用注册的审计事务所，那么这就意味着四大在中国的附属企业可能会流失大量跨国客户。这还可能会迫使大量美国上市的中国企业退市。也许这已在预料之中，中国国营机构中国发展银行（China Development Bank）最近已划拨逾10亿美元来帮助小型企业退出美国证券交易所。

The Big Four claim that their global scale and multidisciplinary scope are good things. In one sense they are right. Consulting is the fastest-growing of the Big Four?s businesses; Asia, the zippiest of the regions they operate in. But the events of the past few weeks show there are perils, too, in trying to have the best of all worlds.

四大宣称它们在全球的规模和多学科的经营范围是一件值得称道的事。在某种意义上的确如此。咨询业务是四大增长最快的业务；亚洲是四大发展业务最为迅猛的地区。但是过去几周中发生的事件表明：尝试将世界上最好的蛋糕收入囊中也是有风险的。

http://www.ecocn.org/thread-174896-1-1.html 译者：坏娃娃

[2012.12.08]Heated debate 激辩

Free exchange 自由交流

Heated debate 激辩

The costs of climate change can be mitigated if economic activity moves in response

经济活动如能随气候变化作相应的地域性转移就能够降低气候变化带来的成本。

Dec 8th 2012 | from the print edition

WHEN Superstorm Sandy roared ashore in late October and the lights of lower

Manhattan went out, New Yorkers were given a stark vision of a possible future. Climate-change science is still a realm of great uncertainty but there is consensus that the planet is warming dangerously and that people are to blame. A recent report commissioned by the World Bank warned that the world is on track to have a global mean temperature that is 4°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. If so, sea levels could rise by between half a metre and a metre by the end of the century, threatening hundreds of millions of

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people in coastal cities. Other regions would face the threats of droughts, bigger storms and changing rainfall patterns. That entails not just human costs but economic ones, too. 今年10月末超级飓风“桑迪”肆虐美国沿海地区，曼哈顿下城区大面积断电，此时一个可能的未来以令人震撼的方式呈现在纽约市居民眼前。气候变化科学依然是一个存在诸多不确定性因素的领域，但科学家们一致认为地球逐步变暖颇具危险性而人类难逃其咎。世界银行最近发布的报告警告称：世界正驶向逐渐变暖的未来，截至到2100年全球平均气温将会比工业革命前高出4摄氏度。若当真如此，到本世纪末海平面可能会上升0.5米至1米，对数以百万计生活在沿海城市的居民造成威胁。而其它地区将会面临干旱，更猛烈的风暴和降雨模式改变的威胁。而这不仅会造成人员伤亡还会累及经济。

The question that preoccupies Klaus Desmet of the Universidad Carlos III in Madrid and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg of Princeton University in a new NBER working paper* is

whether there are ways to manage the impact of changing weather patterns by moving the location of economic activity. They note that roughly 90% of global production uses just 10% of available land. If that 10% is threatened, activity may at least theoretically shift to bits of the 90% made more hospitable by climate change.

美国国家经济研究局（National Bureau of Economic Research ，简称NBER）最新的一篇工作论文中有一个一直困扰卡洛斯三世大学（Universidad Carlos III in Madrid）教授克劳斯?德斯麦特（Klaus Desmet）和普林斯顿大学（Princeton University）教授埃斯特班?罗西-汉斯伯格（Esteban Rossi-Hansberg of Princeton University）的问题：是否有办法通过转移经济活动区域来掌控变化的天气模式带来的影响。他们发现约90%的全球生产活动仅占用了全球可利用土地的10%。如果这10%的用地变得岌岌可危，至少在理论上说来，生产活动会迁移到剩下那90%由于气候变化而可能变得更适宜的用地上去。

Messrs Desmet and Rossi-Hansberg build a model economy, and then batter it with different temperature increases to see how it reacts. In their benchmark analysis, they allow people to move around as they like in response to these changes. In extreme scenarios freedom of movement doesn?t make much difference: temperatures reduce global agricultural productivity to near zero, “implying the end of human life on Earth”. But in more moderate scenarios, rising global temperatures improve agricultural productivity in northerly climes. Welfare losses are small because there are big

movements of people northward. A relatively small temperature increase (by the model?s standards), of 2°C at the Equator rising to 6°C at the North Pole, causes a shift in the average locations of agricultural and manufacturing activity of about ten degrees of

latitude by the end of this century—roughly the distance between Dallas and Chicago, or Frankfurt and Oslo.

德斯麦特教授和罗西-汉斯伯格教授建立了一个经济体模型，然后不断地用不同的气温增量来测探该经济体，看其作何反应。作为基准分析，他们允许人口根据上述气温的变化自由地迁移。在极端情况下，人口自由的迁移作用不大：高温将全球农业生产率降低至零水平，“这意味人类生命在地球上的终结”。但在较为温和的情况下，气温的升高提高了北方地区的农产生产率。经济福利的损失不大，这是因为人口也会向北方大量迁移。气温相对微弱的上升（以该模型的标准衡量），比如说赤道地区上升2摄氏度，北极地区上升到6摄氏度，这样的气温变化到本世纪末将会导致农业和制造业平均区域在地理纬度上北移10度左右——相当于达拉斯（Dallas ）到芝加哥（Chicago），或是法兰克福（Frankfurt ）

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到奥斯陆（Oslo）之间的距离。

Restrictions on movement dramatically increase welfare costs, however. The authors modify the model by introducing a rigid border at the 45th parallel, which runs through the northern United States and across southern Europe, with roughly 1 billion people living above the line and 6 billion below. The model finds that rising temperatures actually benefit the northern section of the globe. Agricultural productivity grows and northern manufacturers enjoy more trade with the throngs that mass just south of the border. Welfare in the south falls, by contrast, by about 5% on average relative to the no-warming case. The model is simplistic, of course, but it suggests that limits on migration have a big effect on the costs of global warming.

但是，一旦限制模型中的人口自由流动，那么就会大大加剧经济福利的损失。论文的作者稍加修正了这一模型，将北纬45度设定成一条严格控制的分界线；这一分界线横贯美国北部和欧洲南部，大约10亿人口居住在该分界线的以北而60亿人口居住在以南。该模型表明气温的上升实际上对北半球分界线以北地区有利。北方的农业产出率上升，而北方制造业也享有与在分界线以南地区密集居住的人群进行更多贸易的好处。在这种情形下，南方的经济福利受损，跟气温没有上升的情况相比，下降了大约5%左右。 当然，这一模型是经过简化之后的，但它却展示了限制人口迁移会极大地增加全球变暖的成本。

Unfettered migration is obviously a lot more likely within countries. But even then, wouldn?t it matter if people left a really productive place for somewhere less dynamic? Real output per person in the New York area is some 70% higher than in Buffalo, for instance; a New Yorker fleeing upstate may suffer a large income loss. Matthew Kahn of the University of California, Los Angeles, reckons that this, too, is manageable. In his book “Climatopolis”, Mr Kahn points out that the productivity of rich places often has little to do with unique geographical advantages. Instead, cities profit as magnets for skilled workers attracted by other skilled workers. New York?s financial wealth stems not from its port but from its brimming community of firms and workers.

人口不受约束的迁移显然更有可能发生在各个国家之内。但即便如此，难道人们就能舍弃繁荣地区前往一个较为缺乏活力的地区？比如说，纽约地区的实际人均产出约比布法罗地区高出70%；因此一个市民离开纽约上城区那么他/她的收入可能会大减。美国加州大学洛杉矶分校（University of California, Los Angeles）教授马修?卡恩（Matthew Kahn）也认为这种影响是可以掌控的。在其所著的《Climatopolis》一书中，卡恩教授指出发达地区的生产率通常与独一无二的地理优势并无太大关联。相反，城市的优势在于能够层层吸引技术娴熟的工人加入其中。纽约在金融方面强大的实力并非源于其所处港口的地理位置，而是其繁荣的企业和工人社区。

Mr Kahn argues that as the climate warms, vulnerable areas like lower Manhattan will become less desirable relative to rival centres: midtown Manhattan, New York?s suburbs, or Chicago. Rational workers and firms should assess the risk of floods or the like and migrate, raising the productivity of the destination locations as they arrive. The move wouldn?t be costless. Investors in lower Manhattan property would suffer large losses, for example. Yet Mr Kahn says there could also be gains, as activity shifts from cities with an out-of-date capital stock (like New York?s ageing infrastructure) to more modern areas. The speed of climate change may also help, reckons Paul Romer of New York University, if broader shifts in habitability occur slowly enough to allow a relatively smooth

geographic adjustment. But change may be too quick and unpredictable to allow for easy

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adaptation.

卡恩教授认为由于气候变暖，相较于有竞争力的中心地区如曼哈顿中城区，纽约市郊区或是芝加哥，像曼哈顿下城一样易受影响的地区的吸引力将会逐渐式微。受理性支配的工人和企业应当评估洪水或是类似的灾害所带来的风险并设法搬迁工作地点，提升他们所到之处的生产力水平。此类迁移的成本不会是零。比如说，投资者在曼哈顿下城区的房产会大幅贬值。但是卡恩教授表示随着生产活动从设施陈旧的城市（比如纽约市破败的基础设施）迁移到更为现代化的地区，这可能还是会有益处的。 纽约大学（New York University）教授保罗?罗默（Paul Romer）认为，如果一个地区的可居住性发生大幅变化，而这种变化缓慢到足以容许发生相对顺利的地域性调整，气候变化的速度也许也会有所帮助。但是改变可能会来的猝不及防，不会给经济体慢慢适应的机会。

Over to the policymakers 决策者出场

Governments may hinder the process of adjustment. Subsidies like government-provided flood insurance to those in vulnerable areas may mute price signals that would otherwise encourage people to leave threatened places before they have no choice. “Climate-safe” cities, if any exist, might limit their own development when confronted by flows of

migrants from vulnerable areas. That, in turn, could deflect migrants, who might wind up not at the next best alternative to lower Manhattan but the tenth-best option. If those who stand to gain from warming use government to protect their interests, the costs of climate change could soar.

各国政府可能会阻碍这一调整的进程。政府为居住在容易受灾地区的人们提供洪涝保险，诸如此类的补贴会屏蔽价格信号，而这些信号会鼓励人们在还有选择权的时候离开受威胁的地区。假使存在“气候安全”的城市，它们在面对从易受灾地区涌来的移民流时，可能会约束自身的发展。反过来，在这种情况下移民可能会分流去其它地区，他们可能最终不会迁移到曼哈顿下城区的最佳替代地区，而是可能选择排名第十的次优地区。如果那些从气候变暖中获得好处的人利用政府来保护他们自身的利益，那么气候变化的成本将会迅速攀升。

Policymakers can also help. Messrs Desmet and Rossi-Hansberg reckon that a carbon tax would raise the relative incomes of innovative cities that rely more on ideas than natural resources for production, encouraging people to migrate toward more productive places. Mr Kahn also worries about market failures. Areas that lose value as they become riskier may become magnets for poor families seeking affordable housing. That may set the stage for humanitarian disaster. Climate change demands a lot of governments that have done little to justify confidence.

决策者也能出一把力。德斯麦特教授和罗西-汉斯伯格教授认为对碳征税能够提升创新城市的相对收入，这些城市更多的依靠于理念而非自然资源来从事生产活动，鼓励人口迁向更繁荣的地区迁移。科恩教授还对市场失灵忧心忡忡。随着风险的加大一些地区的物业会贬值，这可能会吸引那些正在寻找廉价住房的贫困家庭。这也许会成为人道主义灾难的序幕。气候变化要求鲜有作为的各国政府证明它们有信心来应对挑战。

Sources

\

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Bank report, November 2012

\NBER Working paper #18546, November 2012

\Economist.com/blogs/freeexchange

http://www.ecocn.org/thread-175110-1-1.html 译者：坏娃娃

[2012.12.11] New film: “The Hobbit” 新影片：《霍比特人》

New film: “The Hobbit” 新影片：《霍比特人》

An unexpected disappointment 意外失望

Dec 11th 2012, 13:36 by A.C.

TO MOST fans of J.R.R. Tolkien?s Middle Earth books, “The Hobbit” always felt like a bit of throat-clearing before the epic quest of “The Lord of the Rings”. Published in 1937, it was his first stab at describing his invented world. Not to Peter Jackson, apparently. In the hands of the director of the wildly successful Lord of the Rings film trilogy, Tolkien?s shorter, picaresque tale takes on the bloated dimensions of a mountain troll.

对约翰·罗纳德·瑞尔·托尔金（J.R.R. Tolkien）中土故事的拥趸来说，《霍比特人》总有点像是说书人讲述《指环王》史诗故事之前做的清嗓准备。该书出版于1937年，是老托第一次尝试将他所想象出来的那个世界诉诸文字。但彼得·杰克逊（Peter Jackson）似乎并不这么认为。这位执导了广受欢迎的《指环王》电影三部曲的导演将老托这部短小的冒险故事改编成了一部有如山妖般臃肿庞大的影片。

The story takes place 60 years before “The Lord of the Rings” begins, in a “brighter, happier Middle Earth.” Yet the film staggers under the weight of all the menacing

material that Mr Jackson has injected in an effort to tie it to his darker sequels. Equally menacing, perhaps, is the fact that this film, subtitled “An Unexpected Journey”, is the first of another long trilogy that Mr Jackson plans to pump out of this slender novel. 故事发生在《指环王》开头60年前，地点同在中土，只是当时的中土“更有生机、更为美好。”但是杰克逊导演为了把该片和更为黑暗的《指环王》本篇故事联系起来，在片中注入了大量险恶的题材，让整部影片有点不堪重负。也许同样险恶的一点在于杰克逊意图将这部短小的小说扩展成三部曲，而这部副标题是《意外之旅》的片子只是其中第一部。

It starts promisingly enough. Bilbo Baggins, a hobbit, is recruited by a band of dwarves to help reclaim their lost kingdom from the dragon, Smaug. Martin Freeman plays a perfect Bilbo, incarnating the quintessential English qualities of pluck and decency with which Tolkien endowed his hobbits. A comedic pile-up of dwarves at his door sets the befuddled tone. Ian McKellen returns as Gandalf the Grey, played more kindly than

wizardly this time. Adventures pile up thick and fast, starting with the party?s capture and near-roasting by mountain trolls, one of whom is a bit of a foodie.

从开头看来，这片子很有看头。霍比特人比尔博·巴金斯受一群矮人邀请前去征讨邪龙史矛革为矮人复国。马丁·弗里曼（Martin Freeman）把比尔博扮演得非常到位，成功诠释了老

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