东江水库洪水预报调度系统研究与开发

分类号 密 级 U D C 编 号 1 0 4 8 6

武 汉 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文

东江水库洪水预报调度系统

研究与开发

研 究 生 姓 名：陈 敏 指导教师姓名、职称：万 俊 副教授 学 科 、 专 业 名 称：水文学及水资源 研 究 方 向：水资源规划与管理

2005年5月4日

Study And Development On DongJiang Reservoir Flood

Forecasting And Dispatching System

By Chen Min

Supervised by Professor Wan Jun

School of Water Resources and Hydropower

Wuhan University

Wuhan， Hubei， 430072， P.R. China

May， 2005

郑 重 声 明

本人的学位论文是在导师指导下独立撰写并完成的，学位论文没有剽窃、抄袭、造假等违反学术道德、学术规范和侵权行为，否则，本人愿意承担由此而产生的法律责任和法律后果，特此郑重声明。

学位论文作者（签名）：

年 月 日

目 录

摘要 ··················································································································· I ABSTRACT ····································································································· II 第一章 绪 论 ······························································································ - 1 -

1.1 研究目的及意义 ································································································································ - 1 - 1.2 国内外研究概况与发展趋势············································································································ - 2 - 1.2.1 洪水预报初级阶段 ··············································································································· - 2 - 1.2.2 系统理论引入洪水预报 ······································································································· - 2 - 1.2.3 流域水文模型 ······················································································································· - 2 - 1.2.4 实时洪水预报 ······················································································································· - 4 - 1.2.5 洪水预报发展趋势 ··············································································································· - 5 - 1.3 论文的研究内容及技术路线············································································································ - 6 - 1.3.1 研究目标 ······························································································································· - 6 - 1.3.2 主要研究内容 ······················································································································· - 6 - 1.3.3 总体思路及技术路线 ··········································································································· - 6 -

第二章 东江水库洪水实时预报 ··································································· - 8 -

2.1 流域及水库概况 ································································································································ - 8 - 2.1.1 耒水流域自然概况 ··············································································································· - 8 - 2.1.2 东江水库基本情况 ··············································································································· - 8 - 2.2 水情测报站网情况 ···························································································································· - 8 - 2.3 历史雨洪资料预处理 ······················································································································ - 10 - 2.3.1 资料概况与选用 ················································································································· - 10 - 2.3.2 建模数据查错 ····················································································································· - 10 - 2.4 东江水库入库洪水介绍 ·················································································································· - 10 - 2.4.1 雨洪关系 ····························································································································· - 12 - 2.4.2 洪水区域组成 ····················································································································· - 13 - 2.4.3 洪水时程分布 ····················································································································· - 13 - 2.4.4 洪水过程分类 ····················································································································· - 14 - 2.5 洪水预报模型选用 ·························································································································· - 14 - 2.6 新安江三水源模型 ·························································································································· - 14 - 2.6.1 模型简介 ····························································································································· - 14 - 2.6.2 蓄满产流模型 ····················································································································· - 15 - 2.6.3 流域透水面积上蓄水容量曲线方程 ················································································· - 15 -

2.6.4 流域径流深计算 ················································································································· - 16 - 2.6.5 流域蒸散发模型 ················································································································· - 16 - 2.6.6 流域土壤蓄水量计算 ········································································································· - 17 - 2.6.7 流域透水面积上总径流R（净雨）划分 ·········································································· - 18 - 2.6.8 流域汇流模型 ····················································································································· - 19 - 2.7 产汇流模型参数率定 ······················································································································ - 22 - 2.7.1 产流模型参数率定 ············································································································· - 22 - 2.7.2 汇流参数率定 ····················································································································· - 24 - 2.8 模型评定与检验 ······························································································································ - 25 - 2.8.1 评定指标 ····························································································································· - 25 - 2.8.2 洪水过程模拟效果及评定 ································································································· - 26 - 2.9 实时校正 ··········································································································································· - 29 - 2.9.1 实时洪水预报方法概述 ··································································································· - 29 - 2.9.2 AR自回归校正模型 ········································································································ - 30 - 2.9.3 AR(p)模型的参数估计 ····································································································· - 31 - 2.9.4 AR(p)模型阶数的识别 ····································································································· - 31 - 2.9.5 AR(p)模型的预测 ············································································································· - 32 - 2.10 滚动预报与递推校正 ···················································································································· - 32 -

第三章 东江水库洪水调度 ········································································ - 33 -

3.1 水库防洪调度概况 ·························································································································· - 33 - 3.1.1 水库防洪调度的任务 ········································································································· - 33 - 3.1.2 水库概况及防洪调度现状 ································································································· - 33 - 3.1.3 工程概况及水库运用原则 ································································································· - 34 - 3.1.4 东江水库基本资料 ············································································································· - 34 - 3.2 洪水调度方法评述 ·························································································································· - 35 - 3.2.1 设计调洪规程模型 ············································································································· - 35 - 3.2.2 洪水优化调度模型 ············································································································· - 36 - 3.2.3 洪水实时调度模型 ············································································································· - 36 - 3.3 东江洪水调度方案 ·························································································································· - 37 - 3.3.1 按调洪规程调度 ················································································································· - 37 - 3.3.2 按给定闸门流量调度 ········································································································· - 38 - 3.3.3 给定上限水位调度 ············································································································· - 39 - 3.4 洪水调度成果 ··································································································································· - 39 -

第四章 洪水预报调度系统开发 ································································· - 41 -

4.1 系统开发目标及原则 ······················································································································ - 41 -

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