经济学人(The Economist)2022年3月12日

TECHNOLOGY QUARTERLY: THE END OF MOORE’S LAW

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The Economist online

Volume 418Number 8980

Published since September1843to take part in "a severe contest between intelligence,which presses forward,and an unworthy,timid ignorance obstructing our progress."

Editorial o?ces in London and also:

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Contents continues overleaf

1EU,Turkey and refugees A European bargain with Turkey is controversial,but o?ers the best hope of ending migrant chaos:leader,page 14.The deal with Turkey was born of political desperation and faces many practical,legal and ethical di?culties,page 49

On the cover

The era of predictable improvement in computer hardware is ending.What comes next?Leader,page11.After a glorious 50years,Moore’s law—which states that computer power doubles every two years at the same cost—is running out of steam.Tim Cross asks what might replace it:Technology Quarterly,after page 44.Win or lose,a computer program’s showdown against a professional Go player is another milestone in AI,page 73

8The world this week

Leaders

11After Moore’s law

The future of computing 12The Petrobras scandal Interrogating Lula 12Farming in Africa Miracle grow 13China’s economy Ore-inspiring

14

Europe’s migrant crisis A messy but necessary deal

Letters

16On Donald Trump,the Malpes,English law ?rms,Gaelic games Brie?ng

21African agriculture

A green evolution

United States

25Varieties of inequality The great pergence 26Injustice

The ruin of many a poor boy

28Polling ?ops Mich-?re

29Heard on the trail GOP souvenir edition 29The primaries Trump done well

30Becoming an astronaut Mice in their million hordes 32

Lexington

Cuban-Americans The Americas

33Brazil’s political crisis Lula under ?re 34Caribbean prisons Blue seas,black holes 34Antiquities in Latin America

Returning the hatchet 36

Bello

The return of in?ation

Asia

37

The Philippines’election A family a?air

38Politics in Kiribati Making waves 39Religion in India Holy noodles

39Taiwanese identity Multiculti roots 40Japanese politics Abe agonistes 41

Banyan

Asia not gloating,but fretting

China

42A new ?ve-year plan Unlucky for some 43Political music Praising Xi in song 43Carbon emissions Modest targets

44

Trade with North Korea What sanctions?Technology Quarterly After page 44

Middle East and Africa 45Women in Saudi Arabia One step forward,one step back

46Transport in the Middle East In a jam

46Equatorial Guinea Palace in the jungle 47Rwanda

The Kagame dilemma 48

Energy in Rwanda What lies beneath Lake Kivu

The geography of inequality America’s most successful cities,states and ?rms are leaving the rest behind,page 25

Scandals in Brazil Justice, not political war, should determine the fate of Brazil’s government: leader, page 12.The charging of a former president makes a tense situation even more fraught,page 33

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China’s economy In leaning towards stimulus rather than reform,China’s leaders are storing up trouble:leader,page13.The government’s economic plan for the next ?ve years will not live up to its promise,page 42.House

prices are soaring in big cities,but oversupply still plagues much of the country,page 67.Melodious love-o?erings for Xi Jinping,page 43

Farming in Africa

After many wasted years,African agriculture is improving quickly.How to keep that trend going:leader,page12.The farms of Africa are prospering thanks to persistence,technology,

population growth and decent government,pages 21-23

The Wallenberg century The lessons from 100 years of a family’s industrial empire,page 62

Women’s progress (and lack of it)In Saudi Arabia progress for women is going into reverse under the new king,page 45. Feminist economics deserves recognition as a distinct branch of the discipline: Free exchange,page 72

Europe

49Europe and Turkey A new migration deal 50German state elections Mutti’s challenge 50Nadia Savchenko A modern martyr 51

Italy’s Five Star Movement Smartening up 52

Charlemagne

The necessity of culture Britain

53Britain and the EU Next stop:Brexit?54Illegal immigration Channel hopping 54Aston Martin and McLaren

Speed merchants 56

Bagehot

The meaning of the Gogglebox

International 57Civil servants Mandarin lessons

58Exam-cramming in India

Turn over your papers…now

Business 59Health care

Things are looking app 60Fracking companies DUC and cover 61Royal En?eld Approved by mothers-in-law

62The Wallenberg group A Nordic pyramid 64BMW at 100

Bavarian rhapsody 65Retailing

Shops to showrooms 66

Schumpeter

Mexico keeps the faith in globalisation

Finance and economics 67Chinese property For whom the bubble blows

68Buttonwood

High tech,low ?nance 69America’s economy

In?ation rises,unnoticed 69Commodities

Steel chrysanthemums 70Greek banks On the front line 71

Financing porce Till debt us do part 71Discount brokerages Free trade 72

Free exchange Feminist economics Science and technology 73Arti?cial intelligence The Go showdown 75Early human diets Without ?re?75

African science Crucible

76

The internet of things Cool beans

Books and arts

77Singapore,a graphic novel

Lion City march 78British political biography

The shredding of Tony Blair 78Mervyn King and the ?nancial crisis End of alchemy 79Rebooting India Economics 2.080

Johnson

The @rt of punctuation

84Economic and ?nancial

indicators

Statistics on 42economies,plus a closer look at employment Obituary

86Nancy Reagan

Keeping control

8

1Brazilian police detained Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former president, for questioning on suspicion that he had bene?t-ed from bribes paid to Petro-bras, a state-controlled oil giant. He was released after three hours. In a separate

investigation, state prosecutors charged him with concealing his ownership of a seaside property . He denies wrong-doing. The judge investigating the Petrobras scandal sen-tenced Marcelo Odebrecht, a former chief of Brazil’s biggest construction company , to 19years in prison for corrupt dealings with the oil company .Mexico’s president, Enrique Pe?a Nieto, described Donald Trump’s rhetoric as a danger,saying, “that’s how Hitler got in.” Mr Pe?a added that there was “no scenario” in which Mexico would pay for the wall that Mr Trump plans to build on the border if he wins the American presidency .The opposition alliance that controls Venezuela’s National Assembly said it will use “all constitutional means” to force the populist president, Nicolás Maduro, from o?ce. These include launching a referen-dum to recall him,and peace-ful street protests against the government.

Peru’s electoral court barred two candidates from a presi-dential election, to be held on April 10th. Julio Guzmán, who is second in the polls, was disquali?ed because his party failed to obey its rules when it nominated him. César Acu?a was excluded for giving money to voters while campaigning.

The Brexit bandwagon

Mark Carney , the governor of the Bank of England, was accused of promoting pro-European Union views for saying that a British exit from the EU would pose the “biggest domestic risk” to ?nancial stability . Mr Carney tried to re-establish his neutrality by suggesting EU membership brought risks, too. The Sun , a populist newspaper, claimed the queen favours Brexit. An o?cial denial and complaint to the press regulator swiftly followed. Boris Johnson, Lon-don’s mayor and a Brexiteer never far from controversy ,described an e-mail that sought to gag pro-EU views within his o?ce as a “cock-up”.In Slovakia Robert Fico, the prime minister, won a general election but failed to secure a parliamentary majority . De-spite Mr Fico’s anti-immigrant rhetoric the far-right People’s Party Our Slovakia won 8% of the vote and 14 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Leaders from the EU and the prime minister of Turkey ,Ahmet Davutoglu, agreed on the outline of a deal to deport boat people back to T urkey .The terms, which will be con-?rmed at another summit later this month, have been criti-cised by international aid

organisations and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.But as more refugees are ex-pected in the spring, it may be the only hope for Europe.

At least 200,000 union-led protesters and students took to the streets of France and rail-way workers held a national strike for 37 hours. Their main grievance was the French government’s labour-reform bill, which would help compa-

nies bypass tricky unions

when they want to alter work-ing times and cut the cost of redundancies.

Junior doctors in England held their third, and longest, strike,walking out for 48 hours. Only emergency cover was provid-ed; 5,000 surgical procedures were cancelled. Last month the health secretary said he would impose new contracts after negotiations with doctors failed. The doctors have the public’s sympathy; two-thirds back their actions.

Hopes, and fears

T alks aimed at ?nding an end to the con?ict in Syria were postponed again, but are now set to start next week. A cease-?re, which has been in place since February 27th, is continu-ing to hold generally , though numerous minor violations have been reported, and aid is getting through to more areas.The UN warned that a humani-tarian disaster is looming in the western Iraqi city of Fallu-jah, held by Islamic State but under siege for many months by Iraqi forces. T ens of thou-sands of people in the city are facing food shortages.A survey found that almost half of Israeli Jews think that Israeli Arabs, who make up a ?fth of the population, should be expelled or transferred from Israel.

America launched an air strike at a camp belonging to al-Shabab, a terrorist out?t in Somalia , killing150 ?ghters.

A stinging Bern

In the biggest upset in Ameri-ca’s primary elections so far,Bernie Sanders proved the pollsters so very wrong by beating Hillary Clinton in Michigan’s Democratic prim-ary by 50% to 48%. Mrs Clinton had been expected to win handily . Her defeat raised

questions about the breadth of her appeal outside heavily black electorates in the South (she trounced Mr Sanders in Mississippi and Louisiana), but she remains on course to take the party’s nomination.

On the Republican side

Donald Trump chalked up big wins in Michigan and Missis-sippi, though he won Louisi-ana and Kentucky by smaller margins. Marco Rubio’s cam-paign seemed all but over after another dismal showing. Mich ael Bloomberg , a former mayor of New Y ork, said he would not enter the presi-dential race as an indepen-dent, after months of apparent-ly planning to do so. He is concerned that a three-way race would bene?t Mr Trump,whose campaign Mr Bloom-berg described as “the most pisive…I can remember”.

You can clap now

As the annual session of Chi-na’s toothless National Peo-ple’s Congress got under way ,the one-party state forbade the country’s media from report-ing on perse topics including smog, the use of land for bu-rials and delegates’ wealth.They were, however, ordered to “thoroughly report” on the participation of Xi Jinping, the country’s president.

The son of a liberal Pakistani politician , Salman T aseer,who was assassinated by his bod yguard for opposing harsh blasphemy laws, emerged near Quetta after ?ve years of captivity . Shahbaz Ali T aseer had been kidnapped by Islam-ic extremists eight months after his father’s killing.

For the ?rst time, a computer beat a world champion at the Asian board game of Go ,when Google’s DeepMind AlphaGo outclassed Lee

Se-dol of South Korea, who has won 18 championships. Com-puters have beaten the world’s best chess players, but Go is

much more complex.

Politics

9

Other economic data and news can be found on pages 84-85

The Volkswagen scandal rumbled on. Prosecutors in Germany expanded the num-ber of employees at the car-maker who are under investi-gation to 17. But they have yet to ?nd ?rm evidence that senior executives had knowledge of the rigged software in diesel cars that yielded false readings in emissions tests. In France authorities opened a formal inquiry into “aggravated

fraud”. VW ’s chief in America,Michael Horn, resigned. Mat-thias Müller, VW ’s chief exec-utive, warned of “substantial and painful” ?nancial damage at the company because of the scandal.

Pay attention

Under pressure to hand over more tax in Britain, Facebook reportedly told its larger British advertisers to pay it via its UK subsidiary rather than through its o?ce in lower-tax Ireland.Earlier it was revealed that in 2014 Facebook paid just ￡4,300in corporate tax; the next year British tax authorities paid the social-network company

￡27,000 ($44,000) to place ads reminding people about tax commitments.

Chevron announced addi-tional cuts to its capital-spend-ing plans on top of the ones it outlined last December. Like its rivals, the oil giant has been hurt by the prolonged fall in oil prices. The further reduction in spending should shore up its pidend to shareholders,which it has paid out continu-ously since 1926.

Oil prices have been rallying recently , however. Brent crude rose above $40 a barrel for the ?rst time since early December and at mid-week was priced 47% higher than the 13-year low it had sunk to in mid-January .The price has risen in part because oil production in America, where output from shale ?elds has boomed in recent years, is dropping. The price of iron ore soared by record amounts after Chinese o?cials said they would do what it takes to boost growth.

The prospect of building Hinkley Point C , a proposed nuclear-power plant in Britain,was thrown into turmoil after the chief ?nancial o?cer of électricité de France, which is to build Hinkley , quit over concerns that the project

threatened EDF ’s future. At ￡18billion ($25 billion), Hinkley would be the most expensive power plant in history . The British government has prom-ised to pay the French utility company up to ￡92.50 per megawatt hour (three times the current wholesale price)for its output. Despite this generous o?er EDF could still lose out as it is liable for cost overruns.

A vigorous campaign by o?-cials in China to slow the ?ow of money leaving the country seems to be working. Foreign-exchange reserves dropped by $29 billion in February to $3.2trillion, a sharply lower

monthly amount than the $100 billion that has been the norm recently . Meanwhile,new ?gures showed that Chi-na’s exports plunged by 25%in February compared with the same month last year and imports fell by14%.

Mystery shoppers

News that an investor had accumulated a 5% stake in Burberry prompted specu-lation that the British luxury-goods company may become a takeover target. The identity of the investor was not known,but Burberry asked HSBC ,which is the custodian of the stake, who it was. The bank was reportedly said to be holding it on behalf of mul-tiple investors.

Three years after the country was bailed out, euro-zone o?cials con?rmed that

Cyprus will conclude its

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