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经贸要闻Economic＆TradeFocus

HowdoesChinadealwith

economicslowdown中国如何面对经济增长减速

Chinaisforsuretofaceaslowdownintheeco-nomicgrowthinthesecondhalfofthisyearandevennextyearaftergoingthroughaconsistentannualhigh-speedgrowthofeconomyaveragingat9.8%for30years.Thisisanormalthing.Aftermortthan30yearsofreformandopeningtotheoutsideworld，fundamen-talchangeshavetakenoraretakingplaceinthemainfactorswhichhaveinfluencedChina'seconomicgrowth，andtheeffectsofthepopulation，resourcesandsystembonusesareshrinkingswiftely，withtheboostingpowertotheeconomicgrowthweakeningeventually.Thegapbetweenactualeconomicgrowthandthepotentialgrowthrateisnarrowing.

Thefollowingarethemainfactorsleadingtheeco-nomicslowdowninChina.Firstisthestructureadjust-ment.Adjustingstructureandeliminatingoutdatedpro-ductioncapacityistheneedofthechangeofChina'se-conomicgrowthmodeandachievingsustainableandsteadygrowth.Thisisalong-termtaskforthecountry.Oftheindustrieshavingalreadystartedstructureadjust-ment，boththeinvestmentandoutputoftraditionalin-dustrieshavedeclined，buttheemergingindustrieshavenotyettakenshapeinthecountry，hardlytosub-stitutethetraditionalindustriestobecomenewenginesfortheeconomicgrowth.Currently，thecontributionofemergingindustriestoChina'seconomicgrowthisnote-coughtomakeupthelossesofcontributionsofthetra-ditionalindustriestotheeconomicgrowth.

Secondaretheresourcesandenvironmentre-straints.The30years'highgrowthhasmadeChinasac-rificealotofitsresourcesandenvironment.AccordingtoanestimationoftheWorldBank，China'sperunitgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)consumptionofsteel，copper，aluminum，leadandzincis5.6，4.8，4.9，4.9and4.4timesofthatoftheworldaveragelevelre-spectively.SuchaeconomicgrowthmodelbysacrificingitsresourcesandenvironmenthasmadeChina'saggre-gateresourcesandpercapitaresourcesdroppedremark-WMEM

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ably，andbuybigamountsofbulkcommkoditiesabroad，resultingthatwhatChinabuysfrominterna-tionalmarkettheproductpricewouldsurge，especiallysuchstrategicresourceproductssuchasironoreandpetroleum，addingcostsofChina'seconomicdevelop-ment.ResourcesandenvironmenthavebecomeoneoftheharerestraintsforChina'seconomicgrowth.

Thirdisthattheboostingeffectsfromthepopula-tionandsystembonusestoeconomicgrowthhasweak-enedeventually.China'slong-timeeconomicgrowthstrategybasedonexports，andthelow-costlaborad-vantagemadethecountryformanexportproductsstructurewithprocessingtradeformtakingadominantrolewithrawmaterialssuppliedfromabroadandsoasthemarket.Thesurplusundertheprocessingtradeisalmostequaltoorexceedingthetotaltradesurplusofthecountry.But，China'slabormarkethasarrivedattheLewisTurningPoint，andthecostriseoflaborwillsurelyshifttooverseasofthelimitedsupplyandpro-cessingtrade.

China'simplementationofreformisactuallythebonusfromthesystem.Thereformhasliberalizedthesocialproductivitytothemaximum，andthereformofownership，distributionsystemandfactormarkethasspurredthelaboringandworkingenthusiasmofpeople，whichhaveraisedtheproductionefficiency，andbe-comeanimportantengineforpushinguptheeconomicgrowth.But，withthedeepeningofthereform，there-formofsomecoreareaswhichneedin-depthreformhasprogressedslowlyorevencometoastagnation，playingaroleinpullingdowntheeconomicgrowth.

ThedriveofopeningtotheoutsideworldhasmadeChinaenjoythebonusworldwide.ChinawasforthefirsttimetooutstriptheUnitedStatestobecomethebiggestreceiverofforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)intheworldsince2003theyearafterChinajoinedtheWorldTradeOrganization.TheinflowofforeigncompanieshasnotonlydirectlycreatedGDPandexport，butalsomade“catfisheffect”underthecompetitionpressure.Atthesametime，foreign-fundedenterpriseshavemadethe

“spillovereffect”inhumanresorces，technologyand

management，helpinglocalcompaniessharpenedgeofcompetition.However，afterfullfulfillmentofthecom-55

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经贸要闻Economic＆TradeFocus

mitmentstoWTO，theroleofglobalizationtoChina'seconomicgrowthhasgoneweak.Particularly，afterthebreakingoutofthefinancialcrisis，Chinahasbecomeacountrywiththebiggestnumberofanti-dumpinginves-tigationslaunchedbyothercountriesintheworld.Theworseningofenvironmentforforeightrade，othercoun-trieshaveagainandagainexertedpressureonChina'sforeignexchangepolicy，squeezingthebonusoftheglobalization.

Obviously，forChina，thetimeofgainingcompeti-tionadvantagebywaysofwinninglow-costcapitalbydependingonsystemrentseeking，cheaplabor，envi-ronmentpollution，cheapcashobtaininganddevaluationofRenminbi，Chinesecurrencyoryuan，hasended.Onethingmeritsattention，thebaseflgureofChi-na'spresentaggregateeconomyismuchdifferentfromthatatthebeginningofthereformandopeningtotheoutside.China'sGDPwasonlyRMB364.5billionin1978，whichsurgedtoaboutRMB34trillionin2009，whichisexpectedtoreachRMB37trillionin2010，morethan100timesofthatof1978.Undersuchhighbasefigureoftheeconomy，itisverydifficulytomain-tainthehighgrowth.

Infact，China'seconomyhyasarrivedattheturm-ingpointofshiftingfromthehigh-growthstagetoasteadygrowthstage.Aftergoingthroughalongtimeofhigh-speedgrowth，theperiodofshiftingeconomicgrowthmodewillsurelycome.Chineseeconomyisun-likelytomaintaintheannually10%growthcontinuously.

Facingthepossibleeconomicslowdown，Chinaisworkinghardtoboostdebelopmentofnewenergyindus-try，removethepolicyrestrictiononindustryaccessfornon-governmentalcapital，andchangefromthepastdependenceoninvestmentandexportforeconomicgrowthtodependenceontheeffectivedomesticcon-sumptiondemand，inabidtostimulateandboosten-dogenousmotivepowerfortheeconomicgrowthandtrytoachieveasteadygrowthoftheeconomy.

http://www.77cn.com.cnparingwiththeshort-termfluctuationoftheeconomy，Chinaismoreconcernedaboutchangesofthedrivingfactoresforthe

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long-termeconomicgrowth.

ChinainvestmentinU.S.，Europeand

ASEANsurgesinH1中国对美欧东盟投资倍增

China'sdirectinvestmentintheUnitedStates，EuropeUnion(EU)andAssociationofSoutheastEastAsianNations(ASEAN)rocketing360%，107.2%and125.7%toUS$605million，US$406millionandUS$1.221billioninthefirsthalfof2010respectively，ac-cordingtostatisticsfromtheMinistryofCommerce.FromJanuarytoJune，Chineseinvestormadein-vestmentin1，841companiesin111countriesandre-gions，withthedirectinvestmentoverseasinnon-finan-cialsectorsamountingtoUS$17.84billion，jumping43.9%yearonyear，andtheinvestmentconcentratedinmining，commercialservice，manufacturing，whole-salesandretailservice.OfthetotalUS$4.0billionin-vestmentwasmadeinformofacquisition.

Atthesametime，China'sbusinessvolumeofin-ternationalcontractingengineeringreachedUS$37.34billion，up16%onyear，ofwhichthebusinessvolumedoneinAsiaandAfricaaccountingfor85.7%oftheto-tal，andthecontractualvalueofnewcontractsamount-edtoUS$54.94billion，down15%.Thenewlyinkedcontractsmainlycoverhousingconstruction，transport，electricpower，petroleum，electronicandcommunic-tionssectors.

TheactualuseofforeignfundsbyChina'smanufac-turingindustrywentup2%inthefirsthalf;andthatbyservicesectorsurged38.3%，whichis18.7percentagepointshigherthantheaggregategrowth.Servicesectorclaimed44.9%ofthetotaluseofforeignfundsinChi-na，upaboutsixpercentagepoints.

ChinaemergingenergydevelopmentplantoaddRMB5trillioninvestment中国新能源发展规划投资将增5万亿

China'sNationalEnergyAdministration(NEA)isorganizingformulationofthe2011-2020planondevel-opmentofemergingenergyindusrty(whichincludes

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