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策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en

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Eu i t EU i nterpretation training

欧盟口译训练

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Copyright ? 2010 e8b7e12de2bd960590c67759, All Rights Reserved

策马翻译培训

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全球金融危机的四大问题

THE LESSONS TO BE LEARNT FROM TODAY'S FINANCIAL CRISIS

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策马翻译培训

策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en

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e8b7e12de2bd960590c67759 collapses in several high-income countries and an inflationary global commodity price boom. Just as striking are the many huge uncertainties. Will the recent surge in commodity prices prove to be a short-term bubble or long-lasting? Will US households cut back sharply on consumption, which ran at 70 per cent of gross domestic product between 2003 and 2007? Can the deleveraging of the US and other high-income countries occur smoothly, without high inflation? How much more bad debt is still to emerge? Will emerging economies suffer such big

inflationary surges that they will be forced to

abandon intervention in currency markets? If

so, will long-term interest rates jump in the

US? Are emerging economies more vulnerable

to the slowdown in US imports than many

now believe? When will financial markets

recover? Are equity markets adequately

assessing the risks ahead?

人的是许多巨大的不确定因素。近期商品价格飙升是短期泡沫还是会长期持续？美国家庭会大幅缩减开支吗（在2003至2007年期间，私人消费占美国国内生产总值的70%）？美国及其他高收入国家的去杠杆化过程能否平稳进行，而不会引起高通胀？还会出现多少坏账？新兴经济体会否通胀上升步伐过快而不得不放弃干预汇市？如果是这样，美国长期利率会大幅上升吗？新兴经济体是否比许多人预料的更容易受到美国进口放缓的冲击？金融市场何时能复苏？股市对未来的风险是否有充分的评估？

The pergence in possible outcomes is so large that nobody can credibly claim to know what lies ahead. The combination of a massive re-rating of risk with global inflationary pressure is unprecedented and

still quite scary.

对于可能出现的结果，人们的分歧非常之大，没有人敢断言未来将会怎样。大规模风险重估与全球通胀压力并存的局面是前所未有的，而且相当令人惊慌的。 The third big question is what policies we need right now. The BIS view is that the right bias in monetary policy is towards being “much less accommodating ”. Better, it suggests, a sharp global slowdown than a big inflationary upsurge. I agree. But, as it also stresses, in today's varying circumstances, one monetary policy cannot fit all. Each central bank must assess domestic conditions. This is itself a good reason for larger emerging

countries to abandon exchange-rate pegs.

第三大问题是目前我们需要什么政策。国际清算银行的观点是，货币政策的正确倾向应是“减少宽松性”。该行认为，即使全球经济大幅放缓，也好于通胀急剧上升。我同意这个观点。但是，该行同时强调，在如今不断变化的环境中，一种货币政策是不可能普遍适用的。各央行必须评估本国形势。这本身就是新兴大国放弃盯住汇率制的好理由。

Yet the report does dare to raise a telling question about the US Federal Reserve's policy of judging what to do in terms of “insurance ”

报告还将矛头指向美联储(Fed)的政策。美联储是以防范不愉快后果为前提来决定采

取什么政策的。这种做法的危险在于，如果

策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en

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策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en

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