赏析版2011年1-3月经济学人文章(英汉双语对照)汇集

2011年1-3月赏析帖汇集
[2011.03.31]They’re bust. Admit it. 他们破产了，接受这个现实吧！1
[2011.03.31]Everybody needs good neighbours给力莫如好邻居3
[2011.03.31]Raging bulls 愤怒的“公牛”9
[2011.03.24]When the steam clears 烟雾消散之后11
[2010.03.24]Libya campaign: Into the unknown利比亚之战走向未知22
[2011.03.24]Another year of living dangerously 又一个危险年份30
[2011.03.24]Worst-case scenarios: Fat-tail attraction 肥尾诱惑32
[2011.03.24]An audacious merger with a poor reception 联姻大胆,反响不佳35
[2011.03.17]The Arab press: Read all about it 洞悉一切40
[2011.03.17]Future of the state:Enemies of progress进步之敌：工会43
[2011.03.17]Japan's hydra-headed disaster 难以灭绝的灾难46
[2011.03.17]Future of the state:Patient, heal thyself患者，请自愈50
[2011.03.17]Stopped in their tracks 网络追踪，戛然而止53
[2011.03.17]Japan and the uses of adversity日本之灾,焉知非福?55
[2011.03.12]Oh, Mr Porter - 哦，波特先生58
[2011.03.11]Regional disparities 地区差距62
[2011.03.10]Throwing money at the street 挥金街头65
[2011.03.10]Held in reserve 握紧储备68
[2011.03.10]Alienated 非主流69
[2011.03.10]Rebooting their systems 重启系统71
[2011.03.08]A shapely future for circuits 电路的美好前景78
[2011.03.05]Sun,salaries and public servants阳光,薪水与公务员86
[2011.03.03]Prime numbers 顶级商业房产，如质数般稀少87
[2011.03.03]When the roof fell in压顶96
[2011.03.03]Bricks and slaughter 实体房地产业屠刀在手106
[2011.03.03]The old and the new 新与旧115
[2011.03.03]Building excitement 造屋兴奋117
[2011.03.03]Don't let him linger 别让他再赖着不走了123
[2011.03.03]The second coming “基督”再临125
[2011.03.03]A world apart 风景独好128
[2011.02.24]The 9 billion-people question 喂饱90亿人的问题130
[2011.02.24]Plagued by politics 被政治所困扰137
[2011.02.24]The canon of economics 经济学经典139
[2011.02.24]Hand to hand combat 手搏战143
[2011.02.19]A market for computing power 计算力市场146
[2011.02.17]New world order 新世界秩序148
[2011.02.17]Learning to like inflation 学会喜欢通胀149
[2011.02.10]Shifting sands 流沙153
[2011.02.10]The anti-Nokia 诺基亚的反例156
[2011.02.10]Blazing platforms 平台着火157
[2011.02.05]Parsing prices 价格分析163
[2011.02.03]Dancing with bears 与“熊”共舞165
[2011.02.03]Worried Israel 忧心仲仲的以色列169
[2011.02.03]Protests and the pump 抗议与石油171
[2011.01.29]The scent of jasmine spreads 茉莉花香弥漫175
[2011.01.27]A waxing crescent 新月渐盈178
[2011.01.27]Identifying a billion Indians 识别十亿
印度人181
[2011.01.20]The world's water-coolers 世界的开水间185
[2011.01.20]The world's water-coolers 世界的开水间189
[2011.01.20]Tribes still matter 族群依

旧重要194
[2011.01.20]Canada's tar sands 加拿大的油砂198
[2011.01.20]A risk too far 太远的风险208
[2011.01.20]Fluid logic 液体逻辑210
[2011.01.20]Unloading the loaded 大宰有钱人212
[2011.01.20]More millionaires than Australians215
[2011.01.20]Asian medical innovation 亚洲医疗改革219
[2011.01.20]Asia's new aristocrats 亚洲新贵221
[2011.01.13]In praise of Wikipedia 维基百科颂226
[2011.01.13]Awaken the giant within 唤醒心中的巨人229
[2011.01.13]Wikipleadia 维基百辩233
[2011.01.13]Macrobatics 宏蝠236
[2011.01.08]The public sector unions 公共部门的工会239
[2011.01.06]The big mo大态势242
[2011.01.06]The lion kings? 狮子王？245
[2011.01.06]The lion kings? 狮王时代即将来临？249

[2011.03.31]They’re bust. Admit it. 他们破产了，接受这个现实吧！
The euro zone's periphery
欧元区的外围成员国

They’re bust. Admit it.
他们破产了，接受这个现实吧！

Greece, Ireland and Portugal should restructure their debts now
希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙现在应该进行债务重组。

Mar 31st 2011 | from the print edition
IT IS a measure of European politicians’ capacity for self-delusion that Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, called the euro-zone summit on March 24th-25th a “big step forward” in solving the region’s debt crisis. Something between a fudge and a failure would be more accurate. The leaders fell short on almost every task they set themselves. They agreed on a “permanent” rescue mechanism to be introduced in 2013, but couldn’t fund it properly, because Mrs Merkel refused to put up money her finance minister had pledged. The Brussels gathering did little to help Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the zone’s most troubled economies. Their situation is getting worse—and Europe’s leaders bear much of the blame.
欧洲政客自欺欺人的本事由此可见一斑：德国总理安吉拉?默克尔在24日到25日的欧元区峰会上说在解决这些地区的债务危机问题上取得了“很大的进步”。但是说是某种敷衍或是失败更准确吧。领导者几乎没完成当初设定的任何一个任务。他们在将于2013年推行“永久稳定”救援机制的问题上达成一致，但是由于默克尔女士拒绝了其财政大臣曾今承诺的为其提供资金的提议，这个机制不能得到充足的资金。布鲁塞尔峰会（欧元区峰会）也没能帮助希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙这些欧元区最糟糕的经济体。他们的境况越来越糟，欧洲领导人难辞其咎。
Portugal’s prime minister resigned on March 23rd after failing to win support for the fourth austerity package in a year. The country’s credit rating was slashed to near-junk status on March 29th, while ten-year bond yields
have risen above 8% as investors fear Portugal will have to turn to the European Union and the IMF for loans. The economies of both Greece and I

reland, Europe’s two “rescued” countries, are shrinking faster than expected, and bond yields, at almost 13% for Greece and over 10% for Ireland, remain stubbornly high. Investors plainly don’t believe the rescues will work.
3月23日，葡萄牙首相由于没有赢得第四轮一揽子财政紧缩计划的支持而辞职。3月29日，葡萄牙信用评级被调低得近乎垃圾级别，同时十年期国债收益率也由于投资者害怕葡萄牙政府不得不向欧盟和国际货币基金组织贷款而上升到8%。希腊和爱尔兰，这两个“已被救援”的国家的经济规模正在以高于预期的速度收缩，其国债收益率也高烧不退（希腊达到近13%，爱尔兰达到10%）。投资者根本不相信救援会起作用。

They are right. These economies are on an unsustainable course, but not for lack of effort by their governments. Greece and Ireland have made heroic budget cuts. Greece is trying hard to free up its rigid economy. Portugal has lagged in scrapping stifling rules, but its fiscal tightening is bold. In all three places the outlook is darkening in large part because of mistakes made in Brussels, Frankfurt and Berlin.
事实确实如此，这些经济体正处于一个不可持续的状态上，但是其并不是因为他们的政府不努力。希腊与爱尔兰进行了巨额的预算削减。希腊用尽全力来释放其僵化经济体的活力。葡萄牙虽然在其令人窒息的规定的废除上步伐缓慢，但是其财政紧缩却是相当的给力。这三个地区的前景之所以越来越暗淡，其主要是由布鲁塞尔、法兰克福以及柏林的错误造成。

At the EU’s insistence, the peripherals’ priority is to slash their budget deficits regardless of the consequences on growth. But as austerity drags down output, their enormous debts—expected to peak at 160% of GDP for Greece, 125% for Ireland and 100% for Portugal—look ever more unpayable, so bond yields stay high. The result is a downward spiral.
在欧盟的坚持下，这些周边成员国必须优先猛砍他们的预算赤字，而不去考量因此会对经济增长造成的影响。但是财政紧缩会拉低产出，其巨额债务（希腊的债务预计将达到国内生产总值的160%，爱尔兰为125%，葡萄牙为100%）就看起来更难以偿还了，所以他们的国债收益率仍处在高位。这将造成一个下行螺旋的结果。

As if that were not enough, the European Central Bank in Frankfurt seems set on raising interest rates on April 7th, which will strengthen the euro and further undermine the peripherals’ efforts to become more competitive (see article). Some politicians are still pushing daft demands, such as forcing Ireland to raise its corporate tax rate, which would block its best route to growth. Most
pernicious, though, is the perverse logic of the euro zone’s rescue mechanisms. Europe’s leaders won’t hear of debt reduction now, but insist t

hat any country requiring help from 2013 may then need to have its debt restructured and that new official lending will take priority over bondholders. The risk that investors could face a haircut in two years’ time keeps yields high today, which in turn blights the rescue plans.
好像这情况还不够严重似的，位于法兰克福的欧洲央行似乎打算于4月7日提高利率，这将使得欧元更加坚挺，并将在未来一点一点的破坏外围成员国对于让出口更加富有竞争力的努力。一些政治家仍在推行诸如强迫爱尔兰提升其公司税率的愚蠢的要求，这将阻断其发展的最佳路径。不过，危害更大的是，欧元区救援机制所用的逻辑颠倒混乱。 欧洲的领袖们不同意当下就开始削减债务，力主只有到了2013年之后需要救援的国家才可以在那时作债务重组。他们也力主官方贷款将享受比私人债券持有者更优先的条件。因此，私人债券投资者两年后可能面临的削价融资风险 就使得今天的债券收益率居高不下，这就反过来让救援计划受挫。

Home truths from Washington
来自华盛顿邮报的诤言。

This newspaper has argued that Greece, Ireland and Portugal need their debt burdens cut sooner rather than later. That case is stronger than ever, not only because today’s approach is failing but because the risks of restructuring are falling. The spectre of contagion is receding. Spain, whose bond yields have fallen and whose spreads with Germany have tightened, has distanced itself from Portugal. Behind the scenes, sovereign-debt specialists are devising ways to minimise the impact of an “orderly restructuring” on banks. Most banks in the core of the euro zone can withstand a hit from the three small peripherals.
这份报纸认为希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙需要即刻而不是以后削减他们的债务负担。情况如今更加迫在眉睫，并不是因为现在的途经是错误的，而是因为现在重组的风险在降低，蔓延的恐惧正在消逝。西班牙的债券收益率已经下降，跟德国债券收益率的率差也已缩小，已跟葡萄牙拉出了距离。与此同时，主权债务专家也在幕后紧锣密鼓地设计方案来减少“有序重组”对银行的冲击。处于欧元区核心国家的大多数银行扛得住来自这些外围小国的冲击。

The big obstacle is not technical but political. Since many at Europe’s core, particularly the ECB, remain implacably opposed to debt restructuring, the pressure has to come from elsewhere—not least from the peripheral economies themselves. Ireland’s new government is talking about forcing the senior bondholders of its bust banks to take a hit. Greece should stop pretending that it can bear its current debt burden and push for r
estructuring. But the best hope lies with the IMF. Its economists have the most experience of debt crises. Some privately acknowledge that debt

restructuring is ultimately inevitable. It is time the Fund’s top brass said so publicly and, by refusing to lend more without a deal on debt, pushed Europe’s pusillanimous politicians into doing the right thing.
最大的阻碍来自政治层面而非技术层面。由于许多处于欧洲的核心的国家，特别是欧洲央行，仍然坚决的反对债务重组，因此，必须通过其它方面，尤其是这些外围成员国自己来施加压力。爱尔兰的新政府正在讨论迫使那些大量持有破产银行债券的人承受这个冲击。希腊应该停止假装可以承受其流动债务负担并推行重组。但是最大的希望就寄托在国际货币基金组织上。其经济学家在处理债务危机方面有着最丰富的经验。国际货币基金组织的一些经济学家私下表示，债务重组最终将无法避免。是让国际货币基金组织高层对此公开表示，并且通过拒绝借更多钱给尚未处理债务问题的国家，来促使欧洲那些谨小慎微的政治家做正确的事情了的时候。

金融小知识：
Haircut
Haircut. A haircut, in the financial industry, is a percentage discount that's applied informally to the market value of a stock or the face value of a bond in an attempt to account for the risk of loss that the investment poses.
So, for example, a stock with a market value of $30 may get a haircut of 20%, to $24, when an analyst or money manager tries to anticipate what is likely to happen to the price.
这里的剃头表示的意思是投资人所拥有的债券价格届时掉了价， 蚀本了。
市场上， 未必要等到将来的事情发生， 只要有“预期”， “风险大了”， 债券的现值就丢了。 如果此时将这些被剃头的债券拿去抵押借款， 100元面值只能借到80元， 这里的剃头程度就是20%。 这又称削价融资。
http://www.77cn.com.cn/thread-46874-1-1.html 译者：wang_xiao_di

[2011.03.31]Everybody needs good neighbours给力莫如好邻居
Petri-dish economies
培养皿经济

Everybody needs good neighbours给力莫如好邻居

In the first of a series on economies that exemplify global trends, we look at Australia’s commodity boom全球趋势代表巡礼——从澳洲商品繁荣开始
Mar 31st 2011 | ADELAIDE | from the print edition
AN 1838 account of Port Adelaide in South Australia described it as Port Misery, unsurpassed in “everything that is wretched and inconvenient.” That seems like a long time ago. The port is now full of the things Australia grows and the things it digs up. A bumper crop waits in the port’s grain silos. Mineral sands, such as zircon, sit under a tarpaulin. Iron ore, set to become
Australia’s biggest export, fills scores of blue containers on the wharf side.
1838年，南澳大利亚州阿德莱德港的一位会计将它称为“苦难之港”，“任何不幸和不快”都超不过它。斗转星移，如今的阿德莱德港装满了

从澳大利亚长出来和挖出来的东西。谷物在谷仓中堆积如山。油布覆盖着锆石之类矿产。在靠近码头一侧，一个又一个蓝色集装箱装满了澳大利亚命中注定的最大出口品——铁矿石。

Five years ago a shipload of iron ore bought 2,200 flatscreen TVs, says Glenn Stevens, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Now it buys 22,000. The terms of Australia’s trade—the price of its exports, relative to the cost of its imports—have improved by 42% since 2004. Commodity booms have come and gone in Australia’s history but no boom this strong has lasted this long (see chart 1).
五年前，一船铁矿石价值与2 200台平板电视相当，澳大利亚储备银行（澳储银行）行长格伦?史蒂文斯（Glenn Stevens）说。如今，一船铁矿石可以买22 000台平板电视。自2004年以来，澳大利亚的贸易条件（即出口品价格与进口品成本的比值）改善了42%。商品盛衰周期在澳大利亚历史上屡见不鲜，但没有一次繁荣能向这次一样强劲、持续时间如此之长（见图1）。

Over the coming weeks, The Economist will profile several economies at the centre of wider global trends. The first is Australia, a bellwether for other rich commodity exporters such as Norway, where the terms of trade have improved by 38% since 2004, Canada and New Zealand.
在未来几周中，本刊将介绍一些位于全球大趋势中心的经济体。首先要说的就是澳大利亚，发达商品出口国的领头羊，在其身后有挪威（其贸易条件自2004年以来改善了38%）、加拿大和新西兰。

How long will the commodity boom last? Demand, especially in China and India, should continue to strengthen as these countries require more steel, food and fuel. However, some of that demand may be unsustainable, argues Warwick McKibbin, an outside member of the RBA’s rate-setting board. Policymakers in some emerging economies have been too reluctant to tighten monetary policy in advance of America’s Federal Reserve, he points out. This monetary ease showed up quickly in flexible commodity prices, but has yet to feed through into the price of other goods, such as manufactures, many of which Australia imports. When these stickier prices eventually rise, Australia’s terms of trade will deteriorate, even if they do not go back to 2003-04 levels.
这次商品繁荣会持续多久？需求，特别是来自中国和印度的需求，将会继续走强，因为这些国家需要更多的钢铁、食品和燃料。不过，其
中一些需求或许是不可持续的，澳储银行利率决策委员会外部成员瓦维克?麦克基宾（Warwick McKibbin）说。他指出，不少新兴经济体的决策者不愿意先于美联储收紧货币政策。宽松的货币环境很快体现在了弹性较好的商品价格上，但到目前为止还没有反映到其他商品，比如制造品（澳大利亚是这类商品的

进口者）的价格上。当这些更具粘性的价格终于开始上升时，就算涨势不像2003—2004年那样猛，澳大利亚的贸易条件也会恶化。

The other blade of the scissors is supply. Australia is investing heavily in new mines, quarries and gas fields. And it is not alone. “There is no shortage of coal and iron ore around the world,” says Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics in Canberra. With prices so high, miners will eventually unearth it. “All the more reason to make hay while the sun shines.”
剪刀的另一侧锋刃则是供给。澳大利亚对新矿山、石场和气田的投资很大。而且澳大利亚并不是一个人在战斗。堪培拉Deloitte Access Economics的克里斯?理查德森（Chris Richardson）说，“就全世界而言，煤炭和铁矿石并不存在短缺。” 价格那么高，矿被挖出来是迟早的事。“所以还是乘着形势火爆赚一点是一点”

As Australia rushes to make hay, some worry that it will forget how to make everything else—an antipodean version of “Dutch disease”, in which a natural-resources boom boosts currencies and hurts manufacturing exports. In March the Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union launched “Manufacturing: Australia’s Future”, a campaign demanding R&D incentives, more apprenticeships, and “buy Australian” requirements for government projects. In a February survey of manufacturing chief executives, 93% said their exports cannot compete when the Australian dollar buys more than $1. On March 31st, it bought $1.033 (see chart 2).
澳大利亚卯足了劲挖矿赚钱，以至于有人担心它已经不会干其他事了——自然资源繁荣促使货币走强，从而伤害制造业出口——澳大利亚版“荷兰病”。3月，澳大利亚制造业工会（Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union）发布了名为《制造业：澳大利亚的未来》的檄文，要求增加研发激励、推进学徒制，并敦促政府项目采取“买澳货”政策。2月的一份制造业高管显示，93%的人认为如果澳元兑美元超过1，那么他们的出口品将失去竞争力。3月31日，澳元兑美元汇率已经升至1.033（见图2）。

A strong currency is, however, necessary to keep inflation in check. As prices rise quickly in Australia’s booming industries and regions, the RBA can meet its inflation target only if prices elsewhere fall. Over the past 18 months the RBA has raised its key interest rate by 1.75 percentage points. These hikes, according to Joaquin Vespignani of Barclays Capital, have no effect on the mining industries, which sell and borrow abroad. Higher rates and a stronger currency do, however, hurt firms in manufacturing and
construction, as well as states, such as Victoria and New South Wales, where these sectors loom.
然而，强势货币乃是抵制通胀之必须。澳大利亚繁荣产业和地区的价格正在快速上涨，澳储银行要想达

到通胀目标，就只能指望其他价格有所下降。过去18个月以来，澳储银行已将关键利率提高了1.75个百分点。巴克莱资本的杰奎因?维斯皮纳尼（Joaquin Vespingnani）说，这一系列提升利率的举措并未影响到销售和融资都在海外进行的采矿业。然而高利率和强势货币却着实伤害了制造业和建筑业，后两者的萎靡又影响到了维多利亚和新南威尔士等州。
In principle the RBA could change its inflation target, ignoring prices in the mining state of Western Australia and perhaps the Northern Territory. One outside economist even floated the idea with the RBA. “They just started talking about cricket,” he said.
原则上，澳大利亚储备银行可以改变其通胀目标，忽视矿业发达的西澳大利亚州（或许还包括北地）的价格。一位外部经济学家甚至支持澳大利亚储备银行的想法。“他们已经开始谈论板球了。”他说。

One reason may be that Australia is close to full employment. The jobless rate is 5% and projected to fall. In the past firms would import labour. But Australia’s economic recovery has coincided with an ill-timed tightening of immigration policy: it admitted 36% fewer net newcomers in the year to September 2010 compared with the previous year. If the country is fully employed, its boom industries cannot grow unless other industries shrink. No tinkering with monetary policy will change that.
一个理由或许是澳大利亚处于接近充分就业的状态。失业率为5%，且预计将进一步下降。过去如果遇到这种情况，企业会进口劳动力。但这回澳大利亚的经济复苏时机不合时宜地正好赶上移民政策收紧：在截止2010年9月的一年中，澳大利亚净新增移民数量同比减少36%。如果澳大利亚保持充分就业状态，那么某些产业的繁荣就必须以其他产业的萧条为代价。这一点无法通过货币政策魔法改变。

Australia could bring some relief to squeezed exporters by saving, not spending, the proceeds of the boom. That would reduce the inflationary pressure at home, resulting in lower interest rates and a cheaper exchange rate. Households are doing their bit, saving 9.7% of their disposable income compared with less than zero in 2004. The government is also tightening its belt, albeit more gingerly. Having run a budget deficit of 4.4% of GDP in the last fiscal year, it expects a surplus in the fiscal year ending on June 30th 2013, including the proceeds from a mining tax.
如果澳大利亚将繁荣带来的收入储蓄起来而不是花掉，倒是可以让饱受挤压的出口部门喘一口气。那样可以释放国内通胀压力，促使利率和汇率下降。澳大利亚的家庭已经做出了自己的贡献——储蓄已经占到了家庭可支配收入的9.7%，而2004年这一数字还不到零。政府也在收紧支出，但更为谨慎。上一个财年，澳大

利亚的预算赤字占GDP比重为4.4%，预期到2013年6月30日结束的财年，澳大利亚将实现盈余（其中包括了矿产税带来的收入）。

Should it tighten its belt faster? In Chile a fiscal law obliges the government to run budget surpluses whenever the economy is at full employment and the copper price is above its long-run equilibrium, as estimated by an independent panel. A similar rule in Australia would imply a budget surplus of 2% this year, argues Mr McKibbin.
政府应该加大缩减开支力度吗？智利的财政法要求政府在经济处于充分就业且铜价处于长期均衡价格（由独立委员会进行估算）之上时必须保持预算盈余。若澳大利亚出台相似的法律，则今年的预算必须有2%的盈余，麦克基宾说。

Chile’s government adds to a “stabilisation fund” in fat years, and withdraws from it in lean. Australia has its own Future Fund, where it sets aside money to pay for the pensions of public-sector workers. But Mr McKibbin is not alone in thinking that Australia should have its own sovereign-wealth fund to invest money overseas, like Norway’s huge fund.
在繁荣年份，智利政府会将钱存入“稳定基金”中，在萧条年份则动用基金中的钱。澳大利亚也有自己的未来基金，其公共部门员工的养老金就出自该基金。但包括麦克基宾在内的不少人认为澳大利亚应该像挪威那样成立一个主权财富基金进行海外投资。

Should the government do more than get out of the way of the boom? One traditional fix is tariffs and subsidies, which can offset an uncompetitive exchange rate. The government recently imposed fresh anti-dumping duties on Chinese imports of sodium bicarbonate, for example, at the request of Penrice Soda Holdings, Australia’s sole producer of soda-ash crystals, which appear in everything from animal feed to antacids. But Australia—a small, open economy—has learnt to reserve such measures only for a handful of egregious cases.
除了压制繁荣，政府还应该怎么做？传统的修正做法是采取关税和补贴措施，以抵消汇率竞争力低下。比如，应澳大利亚唯一苏打粉（被广泛用于从动物饲料到抗酸药的一切东西）生产商Pinrice苏打公司要求，澳大利亚最近已开始对中国进口的小苏打征收反倾销税。但澳大利亚作为一个小型开放经济，早已学会了慎用此招以备不测之需。

Rather than seek government help, firms are encouraged to raise productivity and improve quality. At Penrice’s plant in Osborne, for example, the workforce has shrunk even as their qualifications have risen. The plant’s 200 workers must now be computer-literate, although their collars are not yet entirely white. On
e worker gives a misbehaving funnel a good whack: “you can never stop an operator using a sledgehammer,” a plant manager says.
企业被鼓励提升生产率、改善质量，

而不是寻求政府帮助。比如，在Penrice奥斯本车间，用工数量有所下降，同时员工质量却有所上升。目前，该车间的200名员工必须具备计算机技能，尽管他们并非百分百的白领。一位员工修好了坏掉的烟囱：“你不能阻止经营者抡起大锤。”一位车间主任说。

Even if the strong dollar hurts Penrice’s profits, the mining boom does have some benefits: the company sells some of its soda ash to miners, such as Uranium One, which will mine the metal in South Australia and export it, probably to Japan and elsewhere. Penrice’s neatly packed, granular bicarbonate still appeals to fastidious customers in Japan, where it puts the fizz in bath salts. It even sells its pharmaceutical-grade crystals to China, for use in dialysis packs.
尽管澳元走强有损于Penrice的利润，但矿业繁荣确实也带来了一些好处：矿业公司买了Penrice不少苏打粉，比如在南澳大利亚州开采金属矿并出口到日本等地的Uranium One公司。Penrice公司的碳酸氢钠颗粒饱满，即使对挑剔的日本客户也颇具吸引力，被买去做浴盐的起泡剂。中国甚至向Penrice购买药用级晶体用于制作透析剂。

Imports, especially of capital goods, also play their part in Australia’s exporting success. In the plant’s control room, Penrice’s workers watch crystals form on the outside of a vacuum-drum filter. Where did they buy the filter? China, of course. “You get more bang from your buck,” the plant manager explains.
进口品，特别是资本品，也对澳大利亚出口的成功起到了推动作用。在Penrice公司车间的控制室，工人们可以看到晶形在真空鼓过滤器表面凝结。过滤装置是哪儿的？当然是从中国买的。“现在花澳元比较划算，”车间主任这样解释。
http://www.77cn.com.cn/thread-46843-1-1.html 译者：majer

[2011.03.31]Raging bulls 愤怒的“公牛”
Online media distribution
网络媒体分发

Raging bulls（注）愤怒的“公牛”

Music and television firms fret about their distributors’ new business models
音乐影视分销商创建了新商业模式，制造商却烦恼不已
Mar 31st 2011 | from the print edition

New ways to enjoy songs and shows
音乐影视欣赏新招迭出

RELATIONS between the companies that create media products and those that distribute them have long been poor. But perennial arguments about the price that ought to be paid for content are turning uglier as digital distribution transforms the media landscape. Like ageing boxers, big media firms have twice climbed into the ring to slug it out with high-tech outfits that seem to be building new business models with their pr
operty. In both cases the media firms are morally right. Yet both encounters have left them bruised.
媒体产品制造商与分销商一向不睦，双方围绕媒体内容售价，常年争执不休，而随着数字分发改

变媒体格局，吵得更是不亦乐乎。媒体巨头就像老拳击手，一把年纪了还要两次爬进拳击场，与高科技公司一决雌雄，后者貌似正在构建具有自身特质的新商业模式。这两场对决，媒体公司均占理，却都被打得遍体鳞伤。

Time Warner Cable (TWC) was, until a couple of years ago, a part of big-media veteran Time Warner; now it is in the other corner of the ring, keen to prove its tech chops. On March 15th TWC launched a feisty little iPad application that lets its customers watch some of the television channels they subscribe to on their tablet computers. Customers were so enthusiastic that the system promptly crashed. Many media firms were not. They say TWC has no right to redistribute their content without permission, even within a subscriber’s home, and complain that iPad viewings do not count towards a programme’s ratings. Cease-and-desist letters have been sent.
时代华纳有线（TWC）数年前，还是老牌传媒巨头时代华纳的一部分，而今却站到拳击场另一角，急于表现自个的技术实力。3月15日，TWC推出了一款相当火爆的iPad小应用，可让其用户在平板电脑上观看自己订购的某些电视频道。用户趋之若鹜，致使系统旋即崩溃。但许多媒体公司却不以为然，称TWC未经许可，无权重新分发它们的内容，哪怕在订户家中分发也不行，还抱怨用iPad看电视未计入节目收视率，纷纷发出勒令停止通知函。

The second challenger is a heavyweight. On March 29th Amazon launched a digital-locker service for media. This will let the e-retailer’s American customers upload music from CDs or digital tracks (not just ones bought from Amazon’s store) to remote servers. They can then play their collections through a variety of devices—with the notable exception of some sold by Apple, the firm that dominates the music-download market. As with digital books, Amazon is trying to create a “buy once, consume anywhere” service.
第二位挑战者，是一名重量级选手。3月29日，电子零售商亚马逊推出了一项媒体“数字寄存柜”服务，可让其美国用户上载CD音乐或数字歌曲（非仅限亚马逊商店所售）到远程服务器。随后，用户即可用多种设备播放收藏曲目，但有一明显例外，那便是，称霸音乐下载市场的苹果所售装置不在此列。借助电子书，亚马逊正试图打造“一次购买，处处使用”的服务。
Sony Music complains that Amazon does not have the right to stream music. Like TWC, the e-retailer is pushing ahead without the content owners’ permission in the hope that the public will come to regard its service as an inalienable right. For music firms that have been quiet
ly negotiating with Apple and Google, which want to build locker services of their own, Amazon’s tactics are below the belt.
索尼音乐公司抱怨亚马逊无权让音乐任意

流动。亚马逊跟TWC一样，未获内容所有者许可，就在推进内容分发业务，它希望公众会慢慢将之当作一种不可剥夺的权利。苹果与谷歌也企图打造自己的“寄存柜”服务，音乐公司一直在默默与之谈判，故对其而言，亚马逊的手段有欠正当。

Even so, are the record labels wise to fight back? Their position is a tricky one. Digital music downloads, which had been growing quickly, stalled last year in America and Japan, according to the IFPI, a trade group. Piracy is one reason; another is that the limitations of digital downloading are becoming clear. Mark Mulligan of Forrester, a research firm, says music fans now expect to be able to play their collections of tunes on all sorts of devices. Some are finding, frustratingly, that they cannot. Amazon’s new service is designed to solve that problem.
即便如此，唱片公司反击就明智了吗？它们处境也颇棘手。据商业团体IFPI称，数字音乐下载一直迅猛发展，但去年在美日却陷入停顿。盗版是原因之一。另一个原因，则是数字下载的种种局限正日益明朗。市场调查公司弗雷斯特的Mark Mulligan称，音乐爱好者如今期望各种设备都可播放自个的收藏曲目。但有些人沮丧地发现，无法办到。亚马逊的新服务正打算解决此问题。

Anything that makes digital downloading more appealing should be good news for the record labels. They should also welcome strong competition for Apple, which has held sway over digital music for a decade. On the other hand, collapsing CD purchases are making them desperate for new sources of revenue. If there is going to be money in digital-locker services, they want a cut. Some have stayed quiet about Amazon’s move so far because they regard it as the foundation of a more ambitious music service that will provide new revenues for them. It may be, for example, that consumers will be offered the chance to listen to each other’s music for a fee.
无论哪种方式，只要能让数字音乐下载更吸引人，对唱片公司而言都是喜讯。它们也会欢迎针对苹果的激烈竞争，后者左右数字音乐市场已达十年。另一方面，CD销量急剧减少，唱片公司亟需新收入来源。倘若媒体“数字寄存柜”服务有利可图，它们也想分一杯羹。对亚马逊的举动，有些唱片公司至今默不做声，概因其认为，那是一项更具雄心音乐服务的基础，会增加收入。这种服务，打个比方，或许是消费者有机会付费收听彼此收藏的音乐。

If the record companies are understandably torn about how to respond to a new distribution model, the television firms are simply wrong. It is hard to imagine a less disruptive innovation than TWC’s iPad app. By letting
people who have already paid for a programme watch it on another screen, the app raises the value of a television subscription and strengthens

the pay-TV ecosystem on which media firms depend. They may win their fight, but it might have been better not to enter the ring.
在如何应对新分发模式一事上，唱片公司左右为难尚可理解，电视公司却大错特错。TWC的iPad应用创新破坏之少，殊难想象。用户可用其跨屏收看已付费节目，从而提高电视订购价格，巩固媒体公司倚赖的付费电视生态系统。自相残杀，电视公司或许会赢，但最好别进拳击场。

注：Raging bulls
语带双关。原是1980年出品、 马丁?斯科塞斯导演的一部电影，一般译作《愤怒的公牛》；本文中作者将网络媒体分发市场比喻为ring，即“拳击场，角力场、竞技场”，而将媒体巨头（包括唱片公司跟电视公司）、高科技公司、电子零售商等比作进场决斗的encounters，也就是标题所指的bull，该词既有“公牛、雄兽”之意，也指“力大如牛的人，粗壮如牛的人，声粗如牛的人，粗汉，彪形大汉”。这里将媒体产品制造商（唱片公司与电视公司）比作力大如牛的拳击手，它们面临与分销商和高科技公司的两场激烈对决，恼怒不已。
http://www.77cn.com.cn/thread-46839-1-1.html 译者：zhanyisky

[2011.03.24]When the steam clears 烟雾消散之后
Nuclear power
核能
When the steam clears
烟雾消散之后

The Fukushima crisis will slow the growth of nuclear power. Might it reverse it?
福岛危机将减缓核能的增长，但它是否会扭转其发展势头？

Mar 24th 2011 | LONDON, NEW YORK AND TOKYO | from the print edition
FEAR and uncertainty spread faster and farther than any nuclear fallout. To date the crisis at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant in Japan, laid low by the tsunami of March 11th, seems to have done little if any long-term damage to the environment beyond the plant’s immediate vicinity or to public health. In fits and starts, and with various reverses, the situation at the plant has come closer to being under control.
与任何核辐射相比，恐惧与惶惑的传播速度更快，范围更远。迄今为止，因311海啸而陷入瘫痪的日本福岛第一核电站，看起来并没有对除电厂毗邻区域以外的环境和公众健康造成（甚至没有造成）多大的长期伤害。伴随着事态的种种反复，福岛核电站的状况已在曲折中更加趋于受控。

But the immediate crisis is far from over. The temperature of the three reactors with damaged central cores still fluctuates and water systems for the spent-fuel pools are jury-rigged at best. Contaminated food has been found a disconcertingly long way away, although it seems to be being
kept out of the food chain. There are worries about tap water in distant Tokyo.
不过，眼下的危机远未结束。三座堆芯中心受损的反应堆的温度仍起伏不定，而乏燃料池供水系统也顶多只是被应急修复而已。人们在远方发

现了受污染的食物，其与核电站相距之远令人不安，不过这些食物看起来被排除在了食物链以外。而遥远的东京也出现了对自来水的担忧。

There will certainly be more durable effects too. Years of clean-up will drag into decades. A permanent exclusion zone could end up stretching beyond the plant’s perimeter. Seriously exposed workers may be at increased risk of cancers for the rest of their lives (which may nevertheless be long). A concern for the long term, like uncertainty and fear, is one of the things that nuclear power invariably brings to discussions of future energy.
更加持久的影响也必将出现。数年的清理工作将会延长为数十年；永久无人区的范围可能最终将超出核电站厂区之外；受到严重辐射的工人们在其（或许仍然漫长的）余生中罹患癌症的几率可能会更高。在关于未来能源的讨论中，诸如惶惑以及恐惧等长期顾虑也是核能必然引入的事项之一。

To a lot of environmentalists, the priority is to get nuclear power out of those discussions once and for all. Simply put, you can’t trust the stuff. Somewhere, eventually, reactors will get out of control. One did at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania in 1979. One did at Chernobyl in 1986. Now three have done so again, and an argument that had seemed to be running short of puff (Chernobyl’s 25th anniversary comes up in April) is revived. Though this disaster has been nothing like as bad as Chernobyl, it is in some ways a lot worse than Three Mile Island—a bit like three Three Mile Islands in a row, with added damage in the spent-fuel stores.
对于众多环保主义者而言，其首要考虑是将核能一劳永逸地排除在这些讨论之外。简而言之，人们不能相信核能。总归会有某处的反应堆将要失控。1979年，宾夕法尼亚州三里岛有一座反应堆失控；1986年，切尔诺贝利有一座反应堆失控；如今，又有三座重蹈覆辙，而且一种曾经似已偃旗息鼓的说法（到4月份，切尔诺贝利事故便已发生25周年了），如今又重获生机。尽管此次灾难迄今为止，还根本不像切尔诺贝利事故那样恶劣，但从某些意义上说，它却远远糟于三里岛核事故——它有些类似于连续发生三次的三里岛事故，外加乏燃料贮存池所受的损害。

Fukushima Dai-ichi, it is true, was swamped by a natural catastrophe of biblical proportions. But this argument cuts both ways. Nuclear planners clearly did not appreciate how bad things could get on a low-lying coast in a seismic zone; and poor planning is part of the problem. One reason why Japanese confidence in nuclear power had been growing in recent years was that past scandals led to resignations and the prospect of reform among p
lanners, power companies and regulators. Whereas in 2005 only a quarter of people felt nuclear energy was safe, by last year more than 40% did,

according to a survey by Japan’s Cabinet Office. Finding sites for new reactors was not proving easy—and old reactors stayed online as a result—but it did not seem impossible.
的确，福岛第一核电站灭顶之灾的元凶是一场规模极为宏大的自然灾难。不过这种说法却是双刃剑。核能规划者们显然未能认识到在震区地势低洼的海岸边，情况能够变得多糟；而拙劣的设计正是问题的一部分。近年来，日本人对核能的信心之所以越发高涨，其原因之一在于往日的丑闻以辞职收场，并带来了规划者、电力公司和监管者进行改革的前景。根据日本内阁府的调查，2005年时仅有四分之一的民众认为核能是安全的，而去年持此观点者已超过四成。为新反应堆选址虽并不容易（这导致旧反应堆仍在入网发电），但看起来也并非毫无可能。

Elsewhere, too, the industry was reviving. Figures from the World Nuclear Association, a trade body, have shown more capacity planned and proposed than on the ground. Now much of this expansion looks likely to be curtailed. Even the replacement of reactors may be in question.
核能产业在其他地区也在重现生机。来自行业组织——世界核协会（World Nuclear Association）的数据已经表明，计划或提议开发的核能大于现有产能。如今看来，这种产能扩张中可能将有许多会被削减，甚至连反应堆的替换或许都得打上问号。

When last year a volcano closed the skies over Europe and a blown-out oil-rig turned the Gulf of Mexico black, there was no widespread enthusiasm for giving up oil or air travel. But nuclear power is much less fundamental to the workings of the world than petrol or aeroplanes. Nuclear reactors generate only 14% of the world’s electricity, and with a median age of about 27 years (see chart) and a typical design life of 40 a lot are nearing retirement. Although the world is eager to fly and thirsts for oil, it has had little appetite for new nuclear power for the past quarter of a century.
当去年一座火山令欧洲空域关闭，一座失控爆炸的石油钻井平台将墨西哥湾染成黑色时，人们并未对放弃石油或航空旅行产生过广泛的热情。不过，与石油或飞机相比，核能对世界运行的基础性作用要弱得多。核反应堆发电量仅为全球总发电量的14%，而其年龄中位数为27年（见图表），设计寿命一般为40年，许多反应堆正临近退役。尽管世界急欲飞行而又渴求石油，但在过去的25年中，它对新增核能却并无多大胃口。

This is not just the direct result of Chernobyl. New nuclear plants cost a great deal of money. After Fukushima they are likely to cost even more, thanks to extra uncertainty in licensing a
nd approval if nothing else. Another problem now made manifest is that if operator error or shoddy construction causes a reactor of the same des

ign as yours halfway round the world to go wrong, yours may be shut down too. This is not a merely theoretical possibility. Seven German nuclear reactors which were officially safe until mid-March have been shut down. It is widely thought that at least some will not open again.
这并不只是切尔诺贝利事故的直接后果。新核电站的成本非常巨大，在福岛核事故之后，由于至少会在授予许可和批准两方面出现额外的不确定性，因此新核电站的成本或许还会上升。另一个如今显而易见的问题则是：如果一座与你的设备相隔万里、但设计相同的反应堆，因操作人员错误操作或豆腐渣工程而发生事故的话，那么你所拥有的反应堆可能也将被关闭。这种情况并非只在理论上存在可能。德国有7座在3月中旬之前被官方认为安全的核反应堆已被关闭。人们普遍认为，其中至少有几座再也不会重新运行。

And if that happens, Germany will not suffer much. While the nuclear industry has stalled since Chernobyl, natural gas and renewables have come on impressively. German electricity prices would probably go up, depending to some extent on the price of gas and carbon, because although new nuclear plants are expensive, old, depreciated ones make cheap electricity. But it would not be the end of the world.
而如果这种情况成真，德国也不会深受其害。当核能产业自切尔诺贝利事故以来便已陷入停滞之时，天然气和可再生能源却以惊人的速度发展。德国电价或许将会上升，在一定程度上这取决于天然气和碳燃料的价格，这是因为尽管新核电站造价高昂，但折旧的老核电站却在生产着廉价的电能。不过，世界也不会因此而陷入穷途末路。

The 14% solution14%解决方案

Nuclear power thus looks dangerous, unpopular, expensive and risky. It is replaceable with relative ease and could be forgone with no huge structural shifts in the way the world works. So what would the world be like without it?
有鉴于此，核能看起来既危险而不受欢迎，又昂贵且存在风险。人们可以相对轻松地用其他能源取而代之，而放弃核能又不会对世界的运行模式带来巨大的结构性变化。那么，没有核能的世界又将是怎样一番模样呢？

The most obvious answer is: a bit warmer. In 2009 the world’s electricity generators emitted about 9 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, out of an industrial total of 30 billion tonnes and a grand total, including deforestation and the effects of other gases, equivalent to some 50 billion. Without nuclear power and with other fuels filling in its share pro rata, emissions from generation would have been about 11 bi
llion tonnes. The difference is roughly equal to the total annual emissions of Germany and Japan combined.
最明显的答案便是：世界将变得更温暖一些。2009年，全球发电设备共排放二

氧化碳90亿吨左右，工业总排放量为300亿吨，而将毁林和其他（温室）气体效应包含在内的排放总量约等于500亿吨。当核能被放弃，而其份额被其他燃料按比例填补时，发电所排放的二氧化碳将达到110亿吨左右。两者差额几乎等于德国和日本的年排放总量。

To put that in perspective, in 2010 the UN Environment Programme estimated that for the world to have a reasonable chance of limiting global warming to less than 2°C, carbon-dioxide emissions should be reduced to 44 billion tonnes by 2020. With business as usual, emissions would be between 54 billion and 60 billion tonnes. If countries took the most ambitious of the courses of action that they have outlined to the UN, the figure comes down to about 49 billion tonnes, leaving an “emissions gap” of 5 billion tonnes that seems highly unlikely to be bridged. So the 2 billion tonnes saved by nuclear power is not vast, but it is significant.
其中的意义在于，联合国环境规划署曾在2010年进行估算，若想让世界有合理的机会将全球变暖的幅度限制在2摄氏度以下，则二氧化碳排放量应当在2020年时被削减至440亿吨。若按正常状况计算，排放量将在540亿吨至600亿吨之间。如果各国在其向联合国列出的各种行动路径中选取目标最为宏大的一种，则这一数字将降至490亿吨左右，而这将留下似乎很难弥合的50亿吨“排放缺口”。因此，核能所节约的20亿吨数量虽不巨大，但意义却颇为重大。
That said, a complete withdrawal from nuclear energy is not on the cards. Though China, which has 77 reactors at various stages of construction, planning and discussion, has said it will review its programme in the aftermath of Fukushima, few expect it to stop entirely. China has a great appetite for energy, which will continue to grow. For now its energy sector is highly concentrated on coal, but so that the country can both diversify and clean its air China’s latest five-year plan aims for growth in all sorts of non-coal energy, including wind power, gas and nuclear. Adverse public opinion and the additional cost of capital caused by uncertainties over regulatory approval have much less salience in China than elsewhere.
这意味着核能不太可能被全面放弃。尽管有77座正处在建设、规划和讨论等不同阶段的反应堆的中国，已经表示将在福岛事故之后重审其计划，但很少有人认为中国将全面停止核计划。中国对能
源的胃口极大，而且这种欲求还将继续膨胀。目前，中国能源领域高度集中于煤炭，不过，因为该国既能使能源多元化，又能改善其空气质量，因此中国最新的五年规划以各类非煤炭能源的增长为目标，其中包括风力、天然气和核能。在中国，公众的反对态度以及由获得监管部门批准的不确定性所导致的资本额外成本，其显著

意义要远远小于其他国家。

Some other countries will also go ahead: Russia says it sees no reason to stop work on ten reactors that are in development. But there could still be a widespread withdrawal from the technology by OECD countries, caused by national changes in policy or stiffer local opposition. And grand though China’s ambitions are, for now OECD countries produce more than 80% of the world’s nuclear electricity.
其他某些国家也会继续开发核电：俄罗斯表示并未发现停止建设开发中的10座反应堆的理由。不过，经合组织国家却仍有可能因为国家政策变化或地区更强硬的反对而普遍放弃核电技术。而且，尽管中国雄心勃勃，但目前经合组织国家的核发电量超过全球核电总产量的八成。

Analysts at Société Générale, a French bank, argue that if these rich countries built no more reactors and allowed existing ones to close at the end of their planned lives, an extra 860m tonnes of carbon a year would be emitted, on average, from 2010 to 2030. This may underestimate the impact on the system as a whole, because nuclear plants and large dams are the only broadly reliable sources of baseload electricity that do not burn fossil fuels. Although renewable capacity has been added quickly in some countries, you cannot be sure that the wind will blow or the sun will shine to order. A fair part of this can be smoothed out if the various sources are linked into an electric grid that is sufficiently large, robust and smart, but that does not obviate all the need for baseload.
法国兴业银行(Société Générale)分析师提出：如果这些富裕国家不再建造更多的反应堆，并让现有反应堆在其设计寿命到期后关闭的话，在2010至2030年间，平均每年将额外排放8.6亿吨碳。这或许低估了它对整个体系带来的冲击，因为在不燃烧化石燃料的基本电力负载来源中，只有核电站和大坝基本可靠。尽管一些国家的可再生能源产能已在快速增长，但人们却不能确定风和阳光能够按需而至。如将不同能量来源联入一张足够庞大、稳健、智能的电网，则此问题能有一大部分得到解决，但这并不会完全消除对基本负载的各种需求。

Most studies assume that in a fully decarbonised electricity system the baseload would come either from nuclear or from fossil-fuel plants fitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, CCS has yet to be demonstrated on anything like the necessary scale, so deploying enough of it to replace existing and expected nuclear plants is a tall order. And a public that was turning against hubristic nuclear engineering might also object to the large-scale storage of a potentially asphyxiating gas
beneath the ground, which CCS requires. This “numby” (not under my back yard) attitude has already affected some pilot projects.
大多数研究认定：在一个完全

无碳化的电力系统中，基本负载或来自核能，或来自装备有碳捕获和储存(CCS)技术的化石燃料发电站。然而，碳捕获和储存技术尚未在任何与必要规模相类似的设施中得到过演示，因此，部署足量此类装置以替代现有和预期建造的核电站，将会相当困难。此外，已对自负的核能工程技术产生反感的公众，或许也会反对在地下大规模储存一种有潜在窒息风险的气体，而这种大规模储存又为碳捕获和储存装置所必须。此般“别建在我家后院”的态度已经对一些试点项目产生了影响。

Damn Vermont Yankee该死的佛蒙特扬基核电站

America, which leads the world in installed nuclear power, may lead the world in turning away from the technology, too. In 2007 Congress agreed to provide loan guarantees for nuclear power; some 28 applications for new stations have since been filed. Barack Obama pledged in his state-of-the-union address in January 2010 to build a “new generation of safe, clean nuclear power plants”. Even before Fukushima, though, this was looking increasingly unlikely. The recession hit demand. Ever-more-available shale gas brought a cheap and reliable alternative route to domestically fuelled electricity. And the lack of climate legislation meant there was no price on carbon, which would have favoured nuclear power.
在核能装机方面居世界之首的美国，或许也将带头远离这项技术。2007年，美国国会同意为核电提供贷款担保，此后人们已提交了大约28份新核电站的建设申请。贝拉克?奥巴马在其2010年1月的国情咨文讲话中许诺建设“新一代安全、清洁的核电站”。不过，这种前景的可能性即便是在福岛核事故发生之前，看起来就已日渐渺茫。经济衰退打击了能源需求。愈加容易获取的页岩气为国产燃料发电提供了一条廉价又可靠的可选路径。而缺乏环境立法则意味着碳排放成本为零，而这种成本原本将有利于核能。

There are just two new American reactors under construction, neither with full regulatory approval (a third, approved under an earlier system and then put on ice, is also under way). Few in the industry expect many more. Applications for around 20 plants to extend their licences are before the government and requests for 15 more are expected shortly. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has already granted them to 64 plants, most recently on March 21st to Vermont Yankee, which is of the same design and vintage as the Fukushima reactors. This similarity has not been lost on the Vermonters trying with renewed vigour
to shut it down. Expect more local opposition in years to come.
目前美国正在建设的新反应堆仅有两座，且两者都未完全获得监管部门的批准（第三座新反应堆曾在较早的体系下获得批准，但其后计划被拖延，如今也在建设之中）。核能产业中

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