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Wen Jiabao paid an unusual visit to the city of Wenzhou during the recent national holiday. Accompanied by the head of the Peoples Bank of China, the finance minister and other senior officials, China‘s premier went to assess the surge in informal lending to the city‘s 450,000 small consumer product and export companies as well as property developers, many of which can no longer get cheap finance from state-owned banks and are failing. With property prices in the secondary market down 10 per cent since June, Wenzhou’s problems shed light on China’s newest economic problem – a faltering property market. 国庆节期间,中国总理温家宝对温州进行了一次非同寻常的视察。在中国人民银行行长、财政部长和其他高官的陪同下,温家宝考察了当地45万家小型消费品和出口企业以及房地产开发商民间贷款飙升的情况——许多企业无法再像过去那样从国有银行获得廉价贷款,因此濒临破产。自今年6月以来温州二手房价格已经下降10%,因此其问题突显出中国面临的最新经济问题:房地产市场萎靡不振。

What happens if the 13 per cent of GDP accounted for by property investment stalls or falls? Property is one of the main symbols and causes of urban wealth and is a key driver of industries including cement and steel. Property developers in China are faced with a fall in prices and transaction volumes, which in 20 big cities are about a third lower than a year ago. Depressed share prices are fueling fears that the property bubble is about to burst. 如果为国内生产总值(GDP)贡献13%的房地产投资停滞或下降,将会出现什么情况?房产是城市居民财富的主要象征和来源之一,也是包括水泥和钢材在内多个行业发展的主要驱动因素。中国房地产开发商面临量价齐跌的局面——20个大城市的房地产交易量已同比下降三成左右。而低迷的房地产股票价格也使人们担心房地产泡沫即将破裂。

The good news is that China managed a property slowdown successfully in 2004 without far-reaching macroeconomic consequences. And the bubble story assumes, often mistakenly, that local anecdotes of speculative activity and oversupply are national. It also ignores rising household incomes, urban house price-to-income ratios and rising demand for new and refurbished homes. A shake-out of weak developers and property assets, and some recapitalisation of banks are all manageable. 好消息是,2004年中国曾在没有对宏观经济造成严重影响的情况下成功地放缓了房地产行业的增长。认为中国房地产存在泡沫的人经常错误地认定,房地产投机活动和过度供应是一个全国现象。他们也忽视了中国家庭收入日益增长,城市房价收入比和人们对新房和改善性住房的需求日益上升等事实。实力较弱开发商的出局和房价的下跌,以及一些银行的资本重组都在可控范围之内。

The bad news is that China has a big problem with leverage in local and provincial governments, which are responsible for infrastructure and land development. This has been likened locally to China’s sub-prime equivalent. 坏消息是,中国负责基础设施和土地开发的地方和省级政府存在严重的杠杆贷款问题。这些贷款一直被比作中国的次贷。

Local governments have significant exposure to property values and collateral and are heavily-indebted with liabilities of at least 30 per cent of GDP. Many are facing cash-flow problems and are prone to default, with large refinancings and repayments due in the next two years. Some Rmb3,000bn of bad local government loans, or 8 per cent of GDP, are being scrutinised by regulators and the National Audit Bureau. A spate of failed land auctions, falls in

land transactions and weakness in property prices could have far bigger consequences for China’s capitalist model. 中国地方政府在房地产价值和抵押品上拥有巨大敞口,背负的巨额债务至少占到GDP的30%。许多地方政府今后两年需要进行大规模的再融资、偿还大量债务,因此面临现金流问题,很可能出现违约。监管机构和国家审计署正在审查地方政府约3万亿元人民币(占GDP的8%)的坏账。一系列土地流拍、土地交易量下降和房价下跌可能对中国的资本模式造成深远得多的影响。

China has the classic symptoms of a typical investment bust, notably a steady deterioration in the quality of investment and financing. A rise in the investment share of GDP to 50 per cent and signs of overcapacity in the construction and steel sectors should not be ignored. The rising ratio of the capital stock to output means that ever greater investment is needed to sustain GDP growth. 中国拥有典型投资崩盘的典型症状,突出表现在投资和融资质量逐步下降。投资占GDP的比例已上升至50%,建筑和钢材行业产能过剩,这些都是不容忽视的迹象。资本存量与产出的比率日益上升意味着,中国需要越来越多的投资来保持GDP的增长。

Beijing has to rebalance its investment-centric, credit-hungry economic model to one built round household consumption. But this is complex. It involves a redistribution of income from capital and profits to labour and wages; radical changes in the role of the exchange rate, interest rates and capital markets; and strategies to counter the high propensity to save by households, corporates and central government. It is also politically divisive because power and economic privilege have to be wrested from party elites, state enterprises and banks, and given to new beneficiaries such as private companies, households, college graduates and rural migrant workers, the last of which has become increasingly restive. 中国政府必须将其以投资为中心、高度依赖信贷的经济增长模式调整为以家庭消费为基础的发展模式,但这是一件很复杂的事情。涉及到对资本收入和企业盈利进行二次分配,用来支付劳动力成本,提高工人薪资水平;彻底改变汇率、利率和资本市场扮演的角色;制定战略,让家庭、企业和央行改变喜欢储蓄的倾向。它还会导致政治分化,因为政党精英、国有企业和银行的权力和经济特权必须被剥夺,让私人企业、家庭、大学毕业生和农民工等新群体受益。而农民工已经变得越来越难以管理。

Mr Wen continues to stress that the rebalancing of the country‘s economy is of paramount importance to China, and to the global economy. We should wish China well in this endeavour. It needs to continue to put the credit and investment genies back in the bottle and pursue economic, legal and political reforms. Beijing‘s forthcoming leadership transition does not make the timing propitious. The political will for swifter and more effective rebalancing is not convincing. Last week‘s announcement of easier credit and tax policies for smaller companies will probably be followed by easier economic and credit policies and new investments this winter as weaker exports lead to slower growth. That might be good news for some, but not for rebalancing and economic stability. 温家宝一直强调,中国经济再平衡对中国和全球经济来说极其重要。我们应该希望中国在这方面有所作为。中国需要坚持努力,把信贷和投资冲动这两个魔鬼塞回瓶子里去,并在经济、法律和政治领域开展改革。中国领导层即将换届,因此目前并非很好的改革时机。加快推出更有效的经济再平衡措施的政治意愿并不强烈。上周中国政府宣布放松对小企业的信贷和税收政策,而随着出口下降导致增长放缓,今年冬天政府很可能会实施较宽松的经济和信贷政策,并进行新的投资。对某些人而言这可能是好消息,但对经济再平衡和稳定而言却并非如此。

The writer is senior economic adviser at UBS and author of Uprising: will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy? 本文作者是瑞银(UBS)高级经济顾问,著有《崛起:新兴市场会塑造还是会撼动全球经济?》(Uprising: will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy)一书

两岁女孩遭车碾路人漠然引发中国反思

Would Good Samaritan Law Have Helped Little Girl?

Video footage showing a two-year-old girl in the southern Chinese city of Foshan being hit twice by vehicles while more than a dozen passersby did nothing to help has touched off of a painful round of soul-searching in the country and revived a long-running debate about the wisdom of helping strangers in the world's second largest economy. Youku驾车碾过女孩的两名司机均已被逮捕。

监控录像显示:一名两岁女孩在中国南方城市佛山被汽车撞了两次,但十几个路人却丝毫不肯出手相助。这段录像在中国引发了一轮痛苦的自我反省,并再次引发由来已久的有关如何在中国这个世界第二大经济体帮助陌生人的讨论。

Taken from surveillance cameras set up in a Foshan market, the chilling images show the child, identified in local media reports as Yueyue, wandering alone into the street where she is hit and run over by a white minivan. 佛山一个市场的监控摄像机拍下的这段令人不寒而栗的画面显示,这名两岁女孩(当地媒体报道称其为“悦悦”)独自一人在街上行走,后被一辆白色面包车撞到并碾过。

After pausing briefly, the van drives off, leaving Yueyue lying in the street. The footage then shows several people passing by without stopping to help the girl until, a few minutes later, she is hit by a second vehicle. Still more people walk past her without stopping -- the final tally is 18, according to local media -- until, finally, an elderly garbage collector drags her out of harms way and calls for help. 短暂停留后,这辆白色面包车开走了,留下独自一人躺在街上的悦悦。录像显示,此后好几个人从悦悦身边经过,却没有停下帮助这个女孩。几分钟后,悦悦被第二辆车碾过。此后又有多位路人从她身旁经过却没有停下。据当地媒体报道,这样“冷血”的路人共有18位。最后,是一位上了年纪的拾荒者将悦悦从危险的马路上拖到路旁,并寻求帮助。

China's state-run Xihua news agency reported Monday that police had arrested the drivers of both vehicles in connection with the incident, which happened on October 13. 新华社周一报道,警方已经逮捕了这起事故中两辆车的肇事司机。事故发生于10月13日。

A spokesman at the Guangzhou military hospital where Yueyue was taken for treatment said Monday that she in a coma. He refuted local media reports saying she was brain dead but acknowledged that she had suffered severe brain trauma. 悦悦目前在广州军区总医院接受治疗。该医院的一位发言人周一说,悦悦处于昏迷状态。这位发言人驳斥了当地媒体有关悦悦已经脑死亡的报道,但他承认悦悦遭受了严重的脑外伤。

A copy of the Southern Television Guangdong report on the Chinese video site Youku has been viewed more than 1.8 million times and drawn nearly 12,000 comments since it was posted Saturday. 广东南方电视台相关报道的内容自上周六在视频网站优酷贴出以来已经被观看了超过180万次,产生了近1.2万条评论。

The story was among the top five most-searched on Chinese search engine Baidu throughout the day Monday. It was also the most-discussed topic on Twitter-like microblogging site Sina Weibo, attracting more than 4 million comments by Monday evening. 周一全天,这则报道成了搜索引擎百度上搜索次数排名前五的内容。此事也成了新浪微博上讨论最多的话题,到周一晚上已有超过400万条评论。

Much of the online reaction in China has focused -- as it would in probably any country -- on the driver of the first vehicle, whom many said should be made to suffer the same fate as Yueyue. 在中国,网上大多数反应集中在第一辆车的司机上(在任何一个国家可能都是如此),许多人说这个司机应该遭受像悦悦那样的命运。

But much of the debate, and most of the vitriol, has been reserved for the passersby who saw a two-year-old girl lying wounded in the street and refused to help her. 但多数讨论以及大多数批评针对的都是眼见两岁女孩受伤躺在街上却拒绝相助的路人。

'The two drivers are guilty and so are the first 18 people who walked by,' argued a Youku user writing under the name Moyao. 'Why doesn't the country establish a law to punish those who refuse to lift a finger to help people in mortal danger? …When morality holds no sway over cold-hearted Chinese people, what else can we do but turn to the law?' 优酷用户Moyao写道,那两个司机有罪,最先经过的那18个路人也有罪;为什么中国不制定法律,惩罚那些对有生命危险的人不出手相救的人呢???当生死无法触动那些冷漠的人时,我们除了付诸法律还能怎么做?

The sentiment was much the same on Sina Weibo, which set up a 'Please end the cold-heartedness' hashtag to organize discussion of the incident. 'How has society come to this?' read one post published under the hashtag by Weibo user Lu Yili. 'As the economy moves forward, humanity retreats.' 新浪微博上的看法也是一样。新浪微博倡议用#请停止冷漠#发一条微博对这起事件进行讨论。新浪微博用户Lu Yili用#请停止冷漠#发布微博说,社会怎么会变成这样?经济在发展,人性却在退化。

This is not the first time the failure of people to help a stranger in need has led to a bout of introspective commentary on the Chinese Internet. On Friday, the same day Southern TV aired the Yueyue footage, the rescue by a foreign tourist of a Chinese woman who had jumped into Hangzhou's West Lake in an apparent suicide attempt produced a similar outpouring. Why, many commenters wondered, was a foreigner willing to help the woman while Chinese tourists appeared to content just to stand on the shore and watch? 这并不是路人对需要帮助的陌生人的冷漠首次在中国互联网上引发内省性的评论潮。上周五,也就是南方电视台播放小悦悦视频片段的当天,一位外国游客在杭州西湖救起了一名跳湖自尽的中国女子,此事也引发了类似的热烈评

论。很多人纳闷,为什么一位外国人愿意帮助这个中国女子,而中国游客看来却只是站在岸边观望?

The apathy of the Chinese crowd is a phenomenon observed often, by foreigners and Chinese alike, in the recent years -- an inevitable consequence, some say, of the country's single-minded pursuit of economic growth. 近年来,中国人的冷漠是外国人和中国人都经常见到的现象。一些人说,这是中国盲目追求经济增长所带来的必然结果。

But in dissecting the Yueyue incident, many commenters have pointed to another explanation: China's lack of a Good Samaritan law to protect those who help strangers in need. 不过,在仔细研究了小悦悦事件后,很多人指出了另外一种解释:中国缺乏见义勇为的法律来保护那些帮助陌生人的好心人。

The potential consequences for those well-intentioned Chinese who chose to get involved was illustrated earlier this year by a bus driver who had stopped to help an 81-year-old woman he'd found lying injured on the ground only to have her tell police it was he who had knocked her over. 那些出于好意帮助别人的中国人可能遭遇的结果从今年早些时候的一件事中可见一斑:一辆大巴车司机停车帮助一位躺在地上受了伤的81岁老太太,老太太却告诉警察说是司机撞了她。

That episode, and others like it, have clearly been on the minds of many commenters in the case of the young girl. 在小悦悦事件中,很多评论的人显然想到了大巴司机的遭遇和其他类似事件。

'This is a social problem, not a problem of individuals,' wrote Weibo user AoB-9527. 'It's not cold-heartedness, it's not being willing to lose out.' 新浪微博用户AoB-9527写道,这是一个社会问题,而不是个人问题,不是冷漠,是不愿好心没好报。

A Youku user writing under the name Xiaodouban520 spelled it out in greater detail: 'There are too many cases in which old people fall down, are saved and then turn around and sue the people who saved them… These people walking by didn't dare help because they were afraid Yueyue's parents would wrangle with them.' 优酷用户Xiaodouban520则更具体地表达了这种想法:有很多老年人跌倒被救却反过来起诉救他们的人的例子??这些经过的路人不敢帮忙,因为他们害怕小悦悦的父母会纠缠他们。

Which raises the question: Would any of the people who passed the child by have stopped to help had they known there was camera footage to prove their good intentions.

这就提出了一个问题:如果大家知道有录像证明他们的良好用心的话,小悦悦事件中的路人是否会停下来帮忙呢?

狂人卡扎菲

A tyrant convinced he made his country great

Muammer Gaddafi, the maverick Libyan dictator who was killed on Thursday, had a grandiose vision of himself and of his country’s place in history. 穆阿迈尔?卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)

周四被打死。这名举止乖张的利比亚独裁者对他本人和利比亚在历史上的地位有着膨胀的看法。

He dominated the oil-rich country for 42 years, during which Libyans were impoverished and repressed by his policies but nonetheless forced to pay homage to the illusion that he was a political visionary. 他统治这个拥有丰富石油资源的国家长达42年。在此期间,利比亚人被他的政策推向贫穷和受压迫的境地,还被迫向一个幻觉顶礼膜拜,这个幻觉便是:卡扎菲是一位富有政治远见的领导人。

For much of his rule Libya was a pariah state, shunned by the international community because of the colonel’s involvement in terrorism. But the 在他当政的大部分时间里,利比亚在国际上是一个“贱民”国家,因卡扎菲支持恐怖主义而受到国际社会的唾弃。但这名自我标榜的“革命领袖”从未放弃装模作样,坚称利比亚人民爱戴他,而他使利比亚成为一个伟大的国家。

self-styled “leader of the revolution” never abandoned the pretence that his people loved him and that he had brought his country greatness. 私下里,利比亚人也许嘲笑卡扎菲1975年在他的《绿宝书》中阐述、并强行贯彻为国家制度的政治构想(混合伊斯兰教和社会主义的大杂烩,既简单化又无条理)。但在公开场合,他们不得不表现得恭恭敬敬。哪怕是最轻微的反对,也会招致“革命委员会”和保护政府的其它安全部门的残暴回应。

In private, Libyans may have scoffed at their leader‘s political ideas – a simplistic and disjointed mixture of Islam and socialism – which he outlined in 1975 in his Green Book and imposed as the country‘s system. But in public they had to show deference. The slightest opposition 卡扎菲对利比亚在世界上的地位和他本人的成就大加吹嘘;而且看上去,他往往对自己渲染的这类神话信以为真。当班加西(Benghazi)爆发反对他的统治的叛乱时,他在电视上发表典型的胡言乱语、置现实于不顾,称他使利比亚高居“世界的巅峰”。他蔑称叛乱者为“老鼠”和“蟑螂”,说他们吸了毒,被基地组织(al-Qaeda)控制。即便在他踏上逃亡生涯、他的统治显然已经告终的最后几天里,他还广播了一段讲话,呼吁人们举行抗议,反对利比亚的新统治者。

provoked a brutal response from the “revolutionary committees” and other security arms protecting the state. 卡扎菲1942年出生于地中海海滨城市苏尔特(Sirte)附近沙漠中的一个贝都因人的帐篷。他的家族隶属于人数不多的卡扎法(Gadadfa)部落。1961年,他进入利比亚军事学院。还是年轻军校学生的他,就已开始制订推翻王室的计划。

Gaddafi often seemed to believe the myths he propagated about Libya‘s status in the world and his own achievements. When the rebellion against his rule started in Benghazi, he ranted on television with typical bombast and disdain for reality that he had placed Libya ―at the pinnacle of the world‖. He dismissed the rebels as ―rats‖ and ―cockroaches‖, saying they were drugged and controlled by al-Qaeda. Even during his last days on the run, when it was clear his rule was finished, weeks after the fall of Tripoli, he broadcast a message calling for protests against the country’s new rulers. 1969年,27岁的军官卡扎菲在一场不流血政变中上台,推翻国王伊德里斯?赛努西(Idris al-Senussi)。卡扎菲当时承诺,将让国家走上“自由、团结和社会正义”的道路。不过,随着时间的推移,他从一名深受阿拉伯民族主义激励的年轻革命者,演变为一名怪僻和无情的独裁者。

Born in 1942 in a Bedouin tent in the desert near Sirte, on Libya‘s Mediterranean coast, Gaddafi came from the small Gadadfa tribe. In 1961 he entered the Libyan military academy, where even as a young cadet he started working on plans to overthrow the monarchy. 在利比亚石油财富和一套压迫机器的支撑下,卡扎菲不受约束地行使权力,在恐怖主义和国外冒险上浪费大把的资金,包括与乍得打了多年的战争。他对非洲独裁者、叛乱组织和外国恐怖主义组织(包括爱尔兰共和军(Irish Republican Army))慷慨解囊。

He was a 27-year-old army officer when he took power in a bloodless coup in 1969, overthrowing King Idris al-Senussi and promising to set the country on the path of ―freedom, unity and social justice‖. Over the years, however, he morphed from a young revolutionary inspired by a deep sense of Arab nationalism into an eccentric and ruthless 上世纪90年代的大部分时间里,利比亚都受到联合国的制裁,原因是该国涉嫌参与1988年在一架泛美航空公司(Pan Am)班机上安放炸弹,该机在苏格兰洛克比(Lockerbie)上空发生爆炸,空难导致270人丧生。2001年,利比亚情报官员阿卜杜勒?巴萨特?迈格拉希(Abdel Basset al-Megrahi)在一家苏格兰法庭被判安放炸弹罪成立。两年后,利比亚对此次袭击事件承担责任。洛克比案判决后,作为利比亚返回国际社会的条件之一,该国向空难受害人家属支付了巨额赔偿金。

dictator. 卡扎菲曾在1977年宣告利比亚是一个Jamahirya,即“民众的国家”。直到最后时刻,他一直坚称权力在人民手中,而他自己没有任何官方职务,只是“革命领袖”。不过,在他统治的整个时期,只有他的声音才是外界听得到的。他的巨幅画像在全国各地居高临下地俯视着芸芸众生,没有任何一名别的官员或政界人士被允许出头。

Bolstered by Libya‘s oil wealth and by an apparatus of repression, Gaddafi wielded unchecked power, squandering billions of dollars on terrorism and foreign adventures, including a long war against Chad. He extended his largesse to a wide range of African dictators, rebel groups and foreign terrorist organisations, including the Irish Republican Army. 在叛乱开始之际,卡扎菲毫不犹豫地下令军队向手无寸铁的平民开火。在首都的黎波里赖在权力宝座上的那些日子里,卡扎菲以恐怖为手段,对市内的反对派人士展开打击。

For most of the 1990s Libya was under UN sanctions because of its suspected involvement in the 1988 bombing of a Pan Am airliner that exploded over Lockerbie in Scotland, killing 270 people. Abdel Basset al-Megrahi, a Libyan intelligence agent, was convicted by a Scottish court in 2001 of planting the bomb and two years later Libya accepted responsibility for the attack. As a condition for its international rehabilitation after the Lockerbie conviction, Libya paid billions of dollars in compensation to families of the victims. 西方一直不太确定该如何把握卡扎菲这个人。前美国总统罗纳德?里根(Ronald Reagan)曾形容他是“中东的疯狗”。1986年,里根曾派战机轰炸利比亚境内目标,以报复利比亚涉嫌参与炸弹袭击西柏林美军人员经常光顾的一家迪斯科舞厅。

Gaddafi had declared Libya a Jamahirya, or ―state of the masses‖, in 1977. Until the end he insisted that power was in the hands of the people and that he had no official position; he was only ―the leader of the revolution‖. Throughout his rule, however, his was the only voice to be heard. His pictures looked down from giant hoardings all over the country and no other official or

politician was allowed to rise to prominence. 但在2003年后,随着卡扎菲宣布放弃制造大规模杀伤性武器的计划,西方国家政府受到利比亚石油资源的吸引。时任英国首相的托尼?布莱尔(Tony Blair)是首批访问利比亚的国际领导人之一,他在2004年伸出了他所称的“友谊之手”。

As the rebellion started, the Libyan leader had no qualms about ordering troops to open fire on unarmed civilians. As he clung to power in Tripoli, he unleashed a campaign of terror against opponents in the city. 意大利总理西尔维奥?贝卢斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)同意针对意大利对利比亚的殖民统治支付赔款,美国也重新设立了大使馆,并宣布准备向利比亚销售武器。卡扎菲于2009年首次在联合国大会(UN General Assembly)上发表讲话,那是一篇典型的长篇大论,对联合国宪章大肆攻击。

The west never quite knew how to handle him. Ronald Reagan, the former US president, described him as ―the mad dog of the Middle East‖. In 1986 Reagan sent jets to bomb targets in Libya in retaliation for Libya‘s suspected involvement in bombing a discotheque in west Berlin frequented by US servicemen. 举止乖张、衣着品味一天比一天古怪的卡扎菲,看上去常常像一个小丑、仿佛很容易受蒙骗。其实,他是狡猾和危险的。他能够长期当政,证明他有生存技巧,有能力收买、威胁和操纵利比亚的众多部落,确保自己坐稳江山。

But after 2003, when Gaddafi renounced a programme to manufacture weapons of mass destruction, western governments were lured by the prospect of Libya‘s oil resources. Tony Blair, then UK prime minister, was one of the first international leaders to visit, extending what he called “the hand of friendship” in 2004. 近年来,他甚至似乎在从几个儿子的相互角力中得利。自我标榜为改革者的赛义夫?伊斯兰(Seif al-Islam)与安全部门首脑穆塔西姆(Mutassim)被视为死对头,竞相争取被父亲选定为接班人。

Silvio Berlusconi, Italy‘s prime minister, agreed to pay reparations for his country‘s colonial rule and the US reopened its embassy and declared its readiness to sell arms to Libya. Gaddafi made his first speech at the UN General Assembly in 2009 – a typically overlong tirade during which he tore up the organisation’s charter. 卡扎菲还有另外五个儿子和一个女儿。他们控制着利比亚经济的一系列重要部门,哈米斯(Khamis)和萨迪(Saadi)还是独立于利比亚陆军编制、效忠卡扎菲家族的特种部队的指挥官。

With such antics and an increasingly outlandish dress sense, the Libyan leader often seemed clownish and deluded. However, he was wily and dangerous. His longevity was testament to his survival skills and to an ability to bribe, threaten and manipulate Libya’s tribes to ensure his domination. 译者/和风

In recent years he even seemed to be playing off his sons against each other. Seif al-Islam, who presented himself as a reformer, and Mutassim, the head of a security agency, were seen as fierce rivals seeking to be chosen as his father‘s anointed successor.

Gaddafi had five other sons and a daughter. They controlled important swaths of the economy and Khamis and Saadi commanded special battalions loyal to the Gaddafi family outside the structure

of the Libyan army.

美国国务卿克林顿突访利比亚 Clinton Makes Aid Trip to Libya

2011-10-19 12:57| 发布者: 凡心| 查看: 233| 评论: 0

摘要: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton paid a surprise visit to war-battered Tripoli on Tuesday to congratulate Libyans for overthrowing the Gadhafi regime and pledge U.S. aid, but sounded a note of warni ...

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Secretary of State Hillary Clinton paid a surprise visit to war-battered Tripoli on Tuesday to congratulate Libyans for overthrowing the Gadhafi regime and pledge U.S. aid, but sounded a note of warning about heavily armed militias that haven't yet joined the new civilian government.

'I am proud to stand here on the soil of a free Tripoli, and on behalf of the American people I congratulate Libya,' Mrs. Clinton said. 'This is Libya's moment, this is Libya's victory, the future belongs to you.'

State Department officials said Mrs. Clinton's trip was meant to help the interim government plan the transition and to deepen bonds between Libya and the U.S.

Mrs. Clinton's visit is the first by a cabinet-level U.S. official since dictator Moammar Gadhafi was deposed.

It comes more than four months after her European counterparts visited Libya, and more than a month after the prime ministers of France and the U.K. visited the new government in Tripoli.

'One of the side effects of leading from behind is that you risk being late to the party, and that could be a big factor' in a region where personal contacts are so crucial to business, said James Phillips, a Middle East expert at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

Mrs. Clinton on Tuesday pledged additional help for Libya, including medical equipment to treat wounded war veterans and more funding and specialists to help secure loose weaponry, including thousands of shoulder-launched missiles that security experts say could fall into the hands of terrorists.

Some of those weapons have already appeared among militants in the Sinai Peninsula.

One key concern: Not all of the heavily armed militias that fought against Col. Gadhafi 'have yet come on board' with the new civilian government, U.S. officials said.

美国国务卿希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)周二意外造访因战争而满目疮痍的利比亚首都的

黎波里,祝贺利比亚人民推翻卡扎菲(Moammar Gadhafi)政权,并承诺美国将向利比亚提供援助。不过,她的言论当中有一丝告诫的意味,似在让人们提防那些尚未加入利比亚新政府的持有重型武装的军事分子。

克林顿说,站在自由的利比亚的土地上,我感到十分骄傲,我代表美国人民向利比亚表示祝贺,这一刻属于利比亚,这是利比亚的胜利,利比亚的未来属于你们。

美国国务院官员说,克林顿此次出访的目的是要帮助利比亚临时政府规划过渡事宜,加深利比亚和美国之间的关系。

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images抵达的黎波里后,希拉里?克林顿在她乘坐的军用运输机旁会见士兵。克林顿此次访利是独裁者卡扎菲被赶下台后,美国内阁级官员首次访问利比亚。

早在克林顿访利四个多月之前,与克林顿同级别的欧洲官员就访问了利比亚,而一个多月前,法国总统与英国首相也抵达的黎波里拜访了利比亚新政府。

华盛顿智库传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)中东问题专家菲利普斯(James Phillips)说,从后面遥控的一个副作用是,就好比你在聚会上迟到,而在一个人际关系对商贸往来至关重要的地区,这可能是个重要因素。

克林顿周二承诺,将增加对利比亚的帮助,包括救治受伤老兵的医疗设备与提供更多资金和专家以帮助获取散落各地的武器,这些武器包括数千枚肩扛式导弹。安全专家说,这些导弹可能会落入恐怖分子之手。

部分这类武器已出现在西奈半岛好战分子的手里。

美国官员说,人们担心的一个关键问题是,并非所有反对卡扎菲的持有重型武器的武装分子都加入了利比亚新政府。 国房价“几潘”

Out of fire, into Pan for Chinese property buyers

2011-10-22 02:17| 发布者: 悠儿| 查看: 317| 评论: 0

摘要: Chinese real estate developers have discovered an alternative to the renminbi, China’s currency, as they begin to advertise properties priced in “Pan”.The new denomination is in fact a reference to ...

选择语言: English中文双语对照

Chinese real estate developers have discovered an alternative to the renminbi, China‘s currency, as they begin to advertise properties priced in ―Pan‖.

The new denomination is in fact a reference to Pan Shiyi, chairman of Soho China and one of the country‘s most prominent property tycoons, used in a marketing trick that plays on public frustration with high housing prices.

In a microblog post this month, Mr Pan jokingly proposed that Apple should start offering its mobile phones for Rmb1,000 (US$157) each. Such an offer, he said, would endear millions of Chinese to Apple and its recently deceased chairman, Steve Jobs.

Mr Pan‘s call drew an unexpected response from Tang Ruo-ding, a photojournalist. ―When chairman Pan dies one day, could [Soho China] please also offer houses for Rmb1,000 per square metre, then more than a billion people will remember you,‖ he said on his own microblog.

After both posts went viral, Chinese netizens came up with the idea of the new currency, with one Pan shorthand for Rmb1,000 per square metre.

“This ridiculing of me is clearly a reflection of people‘s dissatisfaction about the high property prices,‖ said Mr Pan.

This week, the craze spread to the real world. One Beijing developer, Tianjin Jinpu Weiye Realty, began marketing flats in one of its developments priced in Pan.

Soaring property prices, along with food inflation, have soured the mood of China‘s young, and previously politically disinterested urban middle class.

“Our government‘s economic policies are no longer good enough to help us improve our lives. It looks like I will never be able to buy a flat of my own,‖ said Lei Jin, a young Beijing woman.

Du Jinsong, an analyst at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong, said: ―Nationwide, the average price for a flat is now seven times the average annual household income, but in Beijing and Shanghai it is more than 17 times. That compares with about three times in the US.‖

Mr Pan deleted his original blog post, but to no avail. ―Little did I know that after that, people would re-tweet it even more crazily,‖ he said. ―Now that it has come to this new ?currency‘, no explanation will make any difference, so I can only keep silent.‖

中国房地产开发商发现了一个可以替代人民币的货币单位,他们开始在楼盘广告中用―潘币‖标价。

这个新计价单位实际上暗指中国最知名的地产大亨之一——SOHO中国(Soho China)董事长潘石屹。这种营销手法利用了民众对高房价的不满。

本月早些时候,在苹果(Apple)董事长史蒂夫?乔布斯(Steve Jobs)去世后,潘石屹在一条微博中调侃说,苹果应该开始大量生产售价在1000元人民币(合157美元)的iPhone,让更多人用上苹果,这是对乔布斯最好的纪念。

潘石屹此言激起了摄影师唐若丁出人意料的反应。唐若丁在自己的微博中说:―潘总哪天要也去世了,也请贵公司推出一千一平米的房子吧,十几亿人民都会纪念您。‖

两条微博都广为流传,于是网民们想出了以―一潘‖代指―1平方米售价1000元人民币‖的主意。

潘石屹表示:―大家对我的调侃背后是对商品住宅房价太高不满的表现。‖

本周,这股狂热开始蔓延到实体世界,北京房地产开发商天津津浦伟业地产有限公司在推广一个楼盘时就以―潘币‖标价。

房价飞涨和食品通胀已经激起了中国年轻人、以及过去对政治没什么兴趣的城市中产阶层的强烈不满。

―政府的经济政策不再足以帮助我们改善生活,看来我是永远也买不起房子了。‖北京一位年轻的女子雷瑾(音译)表示。

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)香港分析师杜劲松表示:―目前就全国而言,一套房子的平均价格是家庭平均年收入的7倍,但在北京和上海,这个比率超过了17倍。相比之下,美国的这个比率是3倍左右。‖

潘石屹删除了原微博帖子,但毫无作用。―没想到删了之后,传得更快,现在新的货币单位都出来了,我觉得做任何解释都没用了,只好保持沉默。‖

中国允许四省市自行发债

China to ease ban on local government bonds

2011-10-22 02:15| 发布者: 小鱼儿| 查看: 179| 评论: 0

摘要: China will allow local governments to issue bonds directly for the first time in 17 years as Beijing acts to prevent potential defaults by provincial and city-level administrations that could wreak ha ...

选择语言: English中文双语对照

China will allow local governments to issue bonds directly for the first time in 17 years as Beijing acts to prevent potential defaults by provincial and city-level administrations that could wreak havoc in the country‘s financial sector.

A pilot project announced on Thursday by China‘s finance ministry will permit Zhejiang province, Guangdong province and the cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen to issue three and five-year bonds on their own. The project is expected to be extended to other local

governments around the country, many of which borrowed heavily to fund infrastructure projects as part of China‘s enormous 2008 economic stimulus plan.

Local governments in China have not been allowed to sell their own bonds or run budget deficits since 1994, when Beijing introduced a ban because of concerns over the huge debts they were amassing. But most have managed to skirt these restrictions by setting up special purpose

companies to arrange bank loans and other financing to pay for public works and investments.

This practice grew

exponentially after Beijing launched its stimulus plan to deal with the 2008

financial crisis. According to some estimates local

government debt more

than tripled, from about Rmb4,000bn ($626bn) in 2007 to as much as Rmb14,000bn – about 35 per cent of 2010 gross domestic product – by the end of last year.

Policymakers fear much of this borrowing has been spent on wasteful projects and that local governments will struggle to repay many of these loans. Allowing provincial authorities to issue their own bonds should help them to meet cash shortfalls and start the process of cleaning up the murky and largely unregulated special purpose investment vehicles.

The finance ministry did not say how much each local government could raise but the amount will be relatively small at first, with the four authorities expected to be given a combined quota of Rmb20bn-Rmb30bn before the end of the year.

The bonds will be open to Chinese investors as well as a limited number of approved foreign institutions. At present, China‘s finance ministry sells up to Rmb200bn a year in bonds on behalf of local governments.

“Properly handled, the local debt problem does not have to trigger a banking crisis or a macroeconomic slowdown,‖ said Stephen Green, Standard Chartered‘s head of research for Greater China, in a report this year. ―The central government‘s balance sheet and tax collection capabilities combined with strong nominal growth should mean this challenge can be met.‖

But if the economy slows more than expected and many more local projects run into trouble, the

country‘s banking sector could be badly affected. Much of the local government investment is believed to have gone into the country‘s overheated real estate sector and many of the loans are collateralised by land at its current high

valuations, so a severe downturn in that market would have a compounding effect on these debts.

Furthermore, many local administrations rely on land sales as a key source of revenue. A stall in the commercial housing market would therefore put a

further strain on their finances.

Liu Mingkang, chairman of China‘s banking regulator, acknowledged on Wednesday there were

serious concerns about the local government debt burden. ―We cannot deny that local government financing platforms have not been managed well. A lack of monitoring mechanisms and other problems have created various risks,‖ he said.

But, he added, the problem was still ―manageable‖ thanks to continued rapid growth in government

revenue and the overall economy.

中国将允许地方政府17年来首次自行发债,此举旨在防止省市级地方政府违约,对本国金融部门造成严重破坏。

中国财政部周四宣布,将允许浙江、广东、上海和深圳作为试点,自行发行3年期和5年期债券。预计该项目将扩大至全国其它地方政府。作为中国2008年大规模刺激计划的一部分,许多地方政府大量举债建设基础设施。

1994年,出于对地方政府累积的巨额债务的担忧,中国政府出台了禁止地方政府发行债券的禁令,自那以后,中国一直不允许地方政府自行发债或运行预算赤字。但大多数地方政府规避了这些限制,它们通过设立特殊目的公司来安排银行贷款和其它融资,以出资建设公共工程并进行投资。

在中国政府出台刺激方案以对付2008年金融危机之后,上述操作的规模出现指数级增长。据某些人估计,中国地方政府债务从2007年的约4万亿元人民币(合6260亿美元)增长3倍多,达到去年年底的14万亿元人民币,占2010年国内生产总值(GDP)的35%左右。

中国政策制定者们担心,大部分贷款投向了无用的项目,而地方政府将很难偿还其中的许多贷款。允许省级政府自行发债,应当有助于它们解决资金短缺问题,并开始清理不透明、大多不受监管的特殊目的投资工具。

中国财政部没有透露地方政府的发债额度,但一开始额度将相对较小,预计四家地方政府将在年底前获得总计200亿-300亿元人民币的额度。

这些债券将向中国投资者和少数经过批准的外国机构开放。目前,中国财政部代表地方政府一年至多销售2000亿元人民币的债券。

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)大中华区研究部主管王志浩(Stephen Green)今年在一份报告中表示:―如果处置得当,地方债务问题不会引发银行业危机或宏观经济增长放缓。中央政府的资产负债表和收税能力,加上强劲的名义经济增长,应该意味着可以应对这一挑战。‖

但如果经济放缓超出预期,更多的地方项目陷入困境,中国银行业可能受到严重影响。地方政府的投资据信有很大一部分投入了过热的中国房地产行业,而许多贷款是以当前高估值的土地为担保的,因此房地产市场大幅下滑将对这些债务产生多重打击。

此外,许多地方政府的主要收入来源依赖土地出售,商品房市场停滞将令它们的财政进一步受压。

中国银监会主席刘明康周三承认,各方严重担忧地方政府债务负担。他表示:―不可否认,由于地方政府融资平台等存在管理不规范不审慎、监督机制缺失等问题,也埋下了一些风险隐患。‖

不过,他补充称,由于政府收入和整体经济持续快速增长,问题仍然―可控‖。

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