Wind资讯-中国宏观

China Economic Panorama3rd Issue 2014

Wind Info

Brief Introduction China Economic Panorama, based on Wind Info’s EDB and

other public resources, is a quantitative dynamic diagram thatintegrates multidimensional perspectives on macro-economy and reflects China’s economic trend and financial market. The PDF version of China Economic Panorama can help you absorb the latest mass data, grasp the trend of China’s

economic development and seize the best opportunity to win. Made through EXCEL with delicate design, China Economic Panorama is a right hand for analysts, researchers and economists to write research reports.2

Catalogue China’s GDP/ Price Index/ Climate Survey

China’s Interest Rate/ Monetary Policy Tools/ Money Supply/ Loan & Deposit China’s Exchange Rate/ Forex Management/ External Trade China’s PMI/ Industry China’s CCI/ Retail Sales China’s FAI/ Real Estate/ Government Revenue and Expenditure China’s Securities Market (Stocks, Bonds, Futures and Funds)

Catalogue China’s GDP/ Price Index/ Climate Survey China’s Interest Rate/ Monetary Policy Tools/ Money Supply/ Loan & Deposit China’s Exchange Rate/ Forex Management/ External Trade China’s PMI/ Industry China’s CCI/ Retail Sales

China’s FAI/ Real Estate/ Government Revenue and Expenditure China’s Securities Market (Stocks, Bonds, Futures and Funds)Return to Catalogue

China’s GDPChina’s GDP reached 56.8845 trln yuan in 2013, up 7.7% year on year at comparable price. Specifically, the first, second and third quarter saw a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, 7.5% and 7.8%, respectively.

600,000

16.00

14.00

500,000 12.00 400,000 10.00

300,000

8.00

6.00 200,000 4.00 100,000 2.00

0

0.00

1999-03

2001-09

2002-09

2003-09

2004-09

2005-09

2008-03

2009-03

2010-03

2011-03

2012-03

1999-09

2000-03

2000-09

2001-03

2002-03

2003-03

2004-03

2005-03

2006-03

2006-09

2007-03

2007-09

2008-09

2009-09

2010-09

2011-09

2012-09

2013-03

第 三 产业累计值 亿元

第 二 产业累计值 亿元

第 一 产业累计值 亿元

G D P 当季同比 % (右)

数据来源:Wind资讯

5

2013-09

GDP Growth MoMIn the fourth quarter of 2013, China’s GDP was up 1.8% from a month earlier, but down 0.4 pp from the third quarter.

2.70

2.50

2.30

2.10

1.90

1.70

1.50

1.302011-03 2011-09 2012-06 2012-12 2013-092010-12 2011-06 2011-12 2012-03 2012-09 2013-03 2013-06 2013-12

GDP:环比 :季调 %数据来源:Wind资讯

Share of Three Industries in GDPIn the fourth quarter, the value added of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries reached 5.6957 tn yuan, 24.9684 tn yuan, and 26.2204 tn yuan. The proportion of the primary industry to GDP rose to 10.01%, that of the secondary industry dropped to 43.89%, and that of the tertiary industry climbed to 46.09%.

10.01%9.22%

2013-12, 46.09%

2013-09, 45.50% 45.28% 43.89%

第 一 产业

第 二

产业

第 三 产业数据来源:Wind资讯

Contribution Share of Three Major Demands to GDP GrowthIn the fourth quarter, the contribution of consumption expenditures to accumulated year-on-year GDP growth rose to 50%, and that of gross capital formation dropped to 54.4%. However, the contribution of net exports of goods and services to accumulated year-on-year GDP growth was -4.4%.150.00 130.00110.00

90.00 70.00单位：%

50.00 30.0010.00

10.00 30.00 50.002010-06 2011-03 2011-12 2012-09 2013-062010-09 2010-12 2011-06 2011-09 2012-03 2012-06 2012-12 2013-03 2013-09 2013-12

GDP累计同比贡献率:初步核算数:最终消费支出 GDP累计同比贡献率:初步核算数:货物和服务净出口

GDP累计同比贡献率:初步核算数:资本形成总额

数据来源:Wind资讯

China’s GDP & CPIIn the fourth quarter of 2013, China’s GDP grew 7.7% from a year earlier, lower than the previous quarter’s 7.8%. In this January, the country saw a year-on-year increase of 2.5% in CPI, virtually the same as the previous month.30.00 16.00

25.00

14.00

20.0012.00 15.00

10.00 10.00 8.00 5.00 6.00

0.00

5.001993-07 1998-07 1999-07 2000-07 2005-07 2006-07 2007-07 2012-07 2013-071994-07 1995-07 1996-07 1997-07 2001-07 2002-07 2003-07 2004-07 2008-07 2009-07 2010-07 2011-07

4.00

CPI:当月同比增长 %

GDP:当季同比 % (右)数据来源:Wind资讯

Economic Growth of China & DCsIn Q4 2013, the US GDP expanded at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 2.4% while Japan’s GDP recorded a SAAR of 0.7%.

20.00 15.0010.00

单位：%

5.00 0.00 5.00 10.0015.00 20.001999-03 1999-09 2000-03 2011-03 2011-09 2012-03 2012-09 2013-03 2013-092000-09 2001-03 2001-09 2002-03 2002-09 2003-03 2003-09 2004-03 2004-09 2005-03 2005-09 2006-03 2006-09 2007-03 2007-09 2008-03 2008-09 2009-03 2009-09 2010-03 2010-09

中国

美国

日本

欧元区数据来源:Wind资讯

11单位：%10.00 15.00 20.0015.00

10.00 5.00 0.00 5.00

1999-03 1999-09 2000-03 2000-09 2001-03 2001-09

Economic Growth of BRICS

中国2002-032002-09

2003-032003-09

俄罗斯2004-032004-09

2005-03

印度2005-09

2006-032006-09

2007-032007-09 2008-03 2008-09 2009-03

巴西 南非数据来源:Wind资讯

2009-092010-03

2010-092011-03

2011-092012-03

2012-092013-03

In Q4 2013, Brazil’s GDP increased by 10.52% YoY; India’s GDP was up by 4.59% YoY; and South Africa’s GDP gained 3.83% YoY.

2013-09

YoY Growth of China’s CPI & PPIIn Feb, China’s CPI was up by 2.0% YoY. The growth was 0.5% lower than that of the previous month. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) retreated 2.00% from a year earlier, a negative growth for 24 months.

10.008.00

6.00 4.00 2.00 0.002.00

4.00 6.00 8.00 10.002009-05 2010-01 2010-03 2010-11 2011-01 2011-09 2012-05 2012-07 2013-03 2013-05 2014-012009-03 2009-07 2009-09 2009-11 2010-05 2010-07 2010-09 2011-03 2011-05 2011-07 2011-11 2012-01 2012-03 2012-09 2012-11 2013

-01 2013-07 2013-09 2013-11

CPI:当月同比增长 %

PPI:全部工业品:当月同比增长 %

数据来源:Wind资讯

130.50 1.00

1.502009-03 2009-05

1.00

0.00

0.50

2.00

1.50

2009-07 2009-092009-11 2010-01 2010-03

2010-052010-07 2010-09 2010-11

MoM Growth of China’s CPI & PPI

CPI:环比 %2011-01 2011-032011-05 2011-07 2011-09

2011-112012-01 2012-03 2012-05

2012-07 2012-092012-11 2013-01 2013-03

PPI:全部工业品:环比 %

2013-052013-07 2013-09 2013-11

In Feb, China’s CPI edged up 1% MoM, while PPI slid 0.2% MoM.

数据来源:Wind资讯

2014-01

Major Components of China’s CPIIn Feb, China’s CPI rose 2.0% from a year earlier. Specifically, food prices went up by 2.7%, down 1 pp in growth from the previous month. Non-food prices lifted 1.6%, down 0.3 pp in growth from the previous period.16.00

14.0012.00

10.00 8.00

单位：%

6.00 4.002.00

0.002.00

4.002009-03 2009-11 2010-01 2010-11 2011-09 2011-11 2012-07 2012-09 2013-05 2013-072009-05 2009-07 2009-09 2010-03 2010-05 2010-07 2010-09 2011-01 2011-03 2011-05 2011-07 2012-01 2012-03 2012-05 2012-11 2013-01 2013-03 2013-09 2013-11 2014-01

CPI

非食品类CPI

食品类CPI

数据来源:Wind资讯

Major Influential Factors of CPI (YoY)In Feb, food prices expanded 2.7% YoY, pushing CPI up by 0.9 pp. Specifically, prices for meat poultry and related products went down by 3.00%, vegetables prices up by 3.3%, grain prices up by 2.8%, fruit prices up by 19.7%, and aquatic product prices up by 4.7%, lifting the CPI by -0.23 pp, 0.12 pp, 0.08 pp, 0.42 pp and 0.13 pp, respectively.70.00 60.0050.00 40.00 30.00

单位：%

20.00

10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.0040.00

2011-09

2012-01

2012-05

2012-09

2013-01

2013-05

2013-09

粮食

油脂

肉 禽 及制品

猪肉

蛋

水产品

鲜菜

鲜果

调味品

烟草

酒类

数据来源:Wind资讯

15

2014-01

2009-03

2009-05

2009-07

2009-09

2009-11

2010-01

2010-03

2010-05

2010-07

2010-09

2010-11

2011-01

2011-03

2011-05

2011-07

2011-11

2012-03

2012-07

2012-11

2013-03

2013-07

2013-11

Major Influential Factors of CPI (MoM)China’s CPI edged up 0.5% MoM in Feb. Specifically, compared with the previous month, the prices for food, housing and healthcare went up by 1.7%, 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, the prices for clothing, transportation and communications, as well as recreational, educational and cultural products dropped by 0.4%, 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively.5.00 4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

2009-02

2009-04

2010-08

2010-10

2012-02

2012-04

2013-08

2013-10

2008-04

2008-06

2008-08

2008-10

2008-12

2009-06

2009-08

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2010-06

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2011-08

2011-10

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2013-12

C P I :食品:环比 %

C P I :烟酒及用品:环比 %

C P I :衣着:环比 %

C P I :家庭设备用品及服务:环比 % C P I :

娱乐教育文化用品及服务:环比 %

C P I :医疗保健及个人用品:环比 % C P I :居住:环比 %

C P I :交通通讯及服务:环比 %

数据来源:Wind资讯

16

2014-02

17单位：%10.00 8.00 0.00 2.00 8.00

10.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 4.00 6.002009-032009-05 2009-07 2009-09 2009-11 2010-01 2010-03 2010-05 2010-07 2010-09 2010-11 2011-01 2011-03 2011-05 2011-07 2011-09

YoY Price Scissors of China’s CPI & PPI

CPI-PPI CPI PPI2011-11 2012-01 2012-03 2012-05 2012-07 2012-09 2012-11

2013-01 2013-03 2013-05 2013-07 2013-09 2013-11 2014-01

In Feb, the YoY price scissors between CPI and PPI was 4.44%, above 4.0% for two consecutive months.

数据来源:Wind资讯

183.00 6.00

0.002010-012010-03

1.00

2.00

4.00

5.00

7.00

2010-052010-07 2010-09

2010-112011-01 2011-03

2011-052011-07 2011-09

2011-112012-01

2012-032012-05 2012-07

Carryover Factor on China’s CPI

In Feb, the carryover effect was 0.39%, with CPI rising 2.00% YoY.

CPI :当月同比：翘尾因素 %2012-092012-11 2013-01

2013-032013-05

2013-072013-09 2013-11

CPI :当月同比增长 %

2014-012014-03 2014-05

2014-072014-09

数据来源:Wind资讯

2014-11

Purchasing Price Index of Industrial ProducersChina’s producer price index for manufactured goods consists of two sub-indices: the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Purchasing Price Index of Raw Material, Fuel and Power (PPIRM). In Feb, the PPIRM went down by 2.10% YoY while the PPI retreated by 2.00% YoY.15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.002009-07 2009-11 2010-05 2010-09 2011-03 2011-09 2012-01 2012-07 2012-11 2013-05 2013-112009-03 2009-05 2009-09 2010-01 2010-03 2010-07 2010-11 2011-01 2011-05 2011-07 2011-11 2012-03 2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-03 2013-07 2013-09 2014-01

PPIRM:全部原材料:当月同比 %

PPI:全部工业品:当月同比 %

数据来源:Wind资讯

PPIRM Sub-indexIn the sub-index of PPIRM for Feb released by the NBS, ferrous metals fell by 4.2% YoY; chemical raw materials dropped by 2.2% YoY; non-ferrous metals and electric wires retreated by 6.9% YoY; textile materials decreased by 2.4% YoY.

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

单位：%

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

2009-04

2009-06

2009-12

2010-02

2010-08

2010-10

2011-06

2012-02

2012-10

2012-12

2013-06

2013-08

燃 料 、 动力类 化 工 原 料类 其 他 工 业原材料及半成品类

黑 色 金 属材料类 木 材 及 纸浆类 农 副 产 品类

有 色 金 属材料类 建 筑 材 料类 纺 织 原 料类

数据来源:Wind资讯

20

2014-02

2009-08

2009-10

2010-04

2010-06

2010-12

2011-02

2011-04

2011-08

2011-10

2011-12

2012-04

2012-06

2012-08

2013-02

2013-04

2013-10

2013-12

2140 80

100

120

140

160

20

60

0

2009-01

过冷

偏低

过热

趋热 稳定

2009-03

2009-052009-07

2009-092009-11 2010-01

2010-032010-05 2010-07

2010-092010-11

2011-012011-03 2011-05

2011-072011-09 2011-11

2012-012012-03 2012-05

2012-072012-09

2012-112013-01 2013-03

2013-052013-07 2013-09

Macro-economic Climate Index: Pre-warning IndexAs of Dec 2013, China’s Early Warning Index (EWI) was 90.70, below the central line of the green zone.

数据来源:Wind资讯

2013-11

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