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题目韩国会展业的经济影响

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二〇一五年五月一日

济南大学毕业论文外文资料翻译

Tourism Management, 2003,(24) :533–541

Convention industry in South Korea: an economic impact analysis

Samuel Seongseop Kim, Kaye Chon

College of Hospitality and Tourism, Sejong University, 98 Gunja-Dong, Gwanjin-Gu, Seoul, 143 747 South Korea and School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom,

Kowloon, Hong Kong

Abstract: Objective of this study was to assess the economic impact of the convention industry in Korea. An input–output model was used to investigate the economic impact of the convention industry in terms of output, employment, income, value-added, and import. Considering multiplier effects, rate of exchange earnings, and substitution effect, the convention industry was compared with other major export products. According to results of this study, estimated economic impact of the convention industry was reported to be very significant to the Korean economy.

Keywords: Convention; An input–output (I–O) model; Multiplier; Substitution effect

1. Introduction

The meetings, incentive travel, conventions, and exhibitions (MICE) industry is one of the fastest growing segments of the tourism industry today, both in a global and country specific context. According to a report of the Union of International Associations(UIA), the total number of conventions held in 2000 was 9433 and the top five convention-hosting countries include US (1303; 13.8% of world convention market),France (632; 6.7%), England (613; 6.5%), Germany(591; 6.3%), and Italy (430; 4.5%). These five countries accounted for 54.7% of the world convention market. A report published by Successful Meetings (2001) indicated that the total meetings industry spending in 2000 in the US alone amounted to $122.1 billion. This figure includes spending by corporate and association meetings and incentive travel market segments. The total represents an 8.6% dollar volume growth over the previous year-in line with the average 9% year-over-year growth since 1992 (Successful Meetings, 2001).

The convention market in the Asia–Pacific region has also increased by 124% during the period of 1980–1996(Hutchinson, 1997). Especially, Australia’s meetings and exhibitions are estimated to have generated around A$7 billion annually in direct expenditure to the Australian economy (Johnson, Foo, & O’Hallora n, 1999). International attendants to conferences in Sydney during 1996–1997 stayed on average 6.9 nights in the

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city and 10 days in Australia in total, and spent on average A$5722 on conference registration fees, accommodations,domestic airfares, shopping, restaurants, and other costs while in Sydney, and the amount reached approximately A$770 per day (McCabe, Poole, Weeks, & Leiper, 2000).Additionally, 79% of foreign delegates who participated in international conventions held in Australia tended to stay in five- or four-star hotels and approximately 50% of all international delegates participated in a pre- or postconference tour, staying on average a further 3.1 days in the country (McCabe et al., 2000).

The Korean government recently realized the significance of the convention industry. There existed only small convention and exhibition centres before the international scale convention centre, COEX, was opened in the Spring of 2000. The COEX has hosted many international conventions including the third Asia–Europe Meeting (ASEM) and the 14th General Assembly meeting of the World Tourism Organization(WTO) ministerial meeting. At the provincial government level, EXCO-Daegu in the city of Daegu and BEXCO in the city of Busan were among the first opened by a primary source of funding by local governments in April and May 2001, respectively.Continuously, construction of large-scale conventioncentres has been undertaken or planned by provincial or local governments in order to stimulate local economy. The Korean government passed a law for the promotion of the convention industry in December 1996 to institutionalise the legal environment for promoting the convention industry. With global events such as the World Cup and Asian Games in 2002, the rapid development of the convention industry is expected to receive even greater attention.

According to a report of the UIA, Korea ranked the 24th with 109 conventions held in 2000 and the fourth in the Asia region (Korea National Tourism Organization,2001). Thus, Korea held 1.15% of the total 9433 international conventions held in 2000 around the world. As Table 1 shows, conventions with less than 100 foreign delegates occupied about 75% in 2000. The number of foreign participants was 33,562 in 2000 and the number shows a 1.7% rate of growth compared to 1999 (Table 2).

The reasons that the convention industry produces great economic impact can be largely summarised as follows: (1) the number of delegates for one convention is large; (2) the number of days stayed in a city or country is longer than pleasure travellers with other purposes; (3) international convention delegates are large spenders; (4) delegates who participate in a convention also tend to join in pre- or post-tours (for pleasure); and (5) industries affected by convention are various and interrelated. Thus, since international conventions have great economic impact on the hosting city or country, many countries or cities make great efforts in promoting the convention industry.

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济南大学毕业论文外文资料翻译

The objective of this study was to investigate the economic effects of international conventions that foreign delegates participate in. To investigate the economic impacts of the convention industry on a country-level economy, an input–output (I–O) model was used. An I–O model is an appropriate approach to estimate what tourists or visitors to an area or a country spend while they are there, which generates economic activity directly in the form of output or sales, income to residents, employment, and other measures of economic benefits (Frechtling & Horvath, 1999).

Studies using I–O models to explore the estimation of the total contributions to a local level or country level economy attributable to tourists or visitors have been in a variety of contexts: tourists to a country (Lee & Kwon, 1995), tourists to a region or local (Frechtling &Horvath,1999; Johnson & Sullivan, 1993; Uysal, Pomeroy, & Potts, 1992), festival/event (Burgan & Mules, 1992; Crompton & Kim, 1998; Crompton, Lee,& Shuster, 2001; Crompton & McKay, 1994), and gambling (Felsenstein & Freeman, 1998; Lee & Kwon, 1995).

Unfortunately, many studies on the economic effects by the convention industry have not been conducted.When reviewing major tourism journals such as Tourism Management, Annals of Tourism Research, and Journal of Travel Research, Braun’s (1992) study was the only article that reported the economic effect by the convention industry. Some reasons why studies on the economic impact of conventions are not popular can be suggested. First, the convention industry has recently been recognized as an important tourism market. Second, it is difficult to track categories of convention spending by delegates, sponsors, or

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济南大学毕业论文外文资料翻译

exhibitors. Third, it is difficult to disaggregate industries affected by the convention industry because the convention industry is linked with a variety of other industries. Fourth, types of conventions are various according to the nature of the convention including the type of sponsor (e.g., corporate or association), the number of delegates, the length of a convention, a convention with/without exhibition or other types of events, scale of budget, and a convention with/without pre- or post-convention tour program.Thus, these factors inhibit undertaking studies on the economic impacts of the convention industry on a region or country.

A study by Braun (1992) identified the economic contribution of conventions on the economy in Orlando, Florida. He categorized types of spending for a convention into delegates, associations as a sponsor, and exhibitors. In his study, total spending by about 1.67 million delegates in Orlando was estimated and the amount was further broken down into the following categories: lodging (US$531 million: 56%), restaurants(US$234 million: 24.7%), retail stores (US$86 million:9.1%), entertainment (US$52 million: 5.5%), and local transportation (US$45 million: 4.7%). Braun’s (1992) study indicated that spending by associations amounted to US$94 million in Orlando during conventions: services such as banquets and catering (over US$26 million: 27.6%), meetings rooms, exhibition space, and equipment rentals, and services (US$36 million: 38.3%),staff expenses on hotels, meals, and transportation (US$9 million: 9.6%), and guest speakers fees, entertainment, and programs for spouses (US$23 million:24.5%). His study discussed that exhibitors spent US$59.2 million on food service for promotion (US$34 million: 57.4%), hospitality suites (US$9.5 million: 16.0%), services including contracts (US$5.7 million: 9.62%), and others (US$8.2 million: 13.8%).

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Braun (1992) stated that convention spending directly affects the following sectors: hotels and other lodging;eating and drinking establishments; miscellaneous retail; amusement and recreation; membership organizations; transportation services; business services; social services; building materials and garden supply; health services; repair services; museums, botanical gardens, and zoos. The total of US$1.19 billion in convention spending was used as an export of output for the Orlando economy to produce new revenues from outside the region. The total impact was estimated at over 65,000 jobs, US$457 million in income, US$2.28 billion in output, about US$88 million in local taxes and US$15 million in state taxes.

A report published by the Convention Liaison Council (CLC) in 1995 estimated the economic impact of conventions, expositions, meetings, and incentive travel industry in the US. In the report, the primary sources of direct spending related to the industry were designated as event sponsors (both corporate and association), association and corporate delegates, and exhibition organizations. The direct spending amounted to US$82.81 billion totaling convention & expositions(US$52.27 billion), meetings (US$27.04 billion), and incentive travel (US$3.5 billion). The spending created 1.57 million full-time equivalent jobs and generated total direct taxes of US$12.3 billion. As a result of the breakdown of the direct spending for the industry, each major segment includes hotels and other meeting places(32.5%), air transportation (23.3%), restaurants(12.1%), business services (6.6%), ground transportation (8.6%), retail trade (6.7%), entertainment (4.5%), advertising (0.3%), equipment rentals (0.6%), miscellaneous other business expenses (2.9%), unspecified industries (1.2%), cruises (0.4%), promotion (0.3%).

The above two studies measured the economic impact of convention spending on the regional or national economy. However, both studies have some limitations. Braun’s (1992) study included sectors such as social services, building materials and garden supply, health services, repair services, and museums and botanical gardens and zoos as those of industries that are directly affected by convention spending. However, sectors more directly affected by convention sponsors are likely to be printing and publishing, audio and visual services, communication and broadcasting, and business services(including repair and cleaning, etc.). Moreover, in calculating the total impact, he considered 32 sectors (here, it is natural for tourism industry sectors to be included). But other sectors such as banking, legal services, insurance services, and trucking and warehousing were included as being most affected by convention spending. The results may produce an inflated figure on the regional I–O model’s estimation on the convention spending.

The 1995 CLC study aggregated categories of convention spending without regard of

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济南大学毕业论文外文资料翻译

separately calculating spending of convention sponsors, convention delegates, and exhibitors. However, it seems difficult to aggregate spending by three sources and also allocate direct spending to sectors of the convention industry. The reason is that it is difficult to trace sources of expenditures or subject of spenders because as Braun(1992) indicated, spending categories vary according to delegates, convention sponsors, and exhibitors. For example, expenditures on food service can occur by all or one of delegates, convention sponsors, and exhibitors. Thus, methods of the 1995 CLC study are questionable.

Thus, this study has split spending sources into both delegates and convention sponsors. The spending by exhibitors was excluded because most of the conventions considered for this study were meetings held without exhibitions. More specifically, a ‘convention’ in this study is defined as a meeting such as a conference, congress, workshop, and symposium without accompanying exhibition. Additionally, the convention indicates a meeting where more than 10 foreign delegates from over three countries participate in to share information.

2. Method and data

The I–O model used in this study was based on the latest I–O transactions tables developed by the Bank of Korea (2001). The 405 405 sectors from the transactions tables were aggregated into a 39 39 sector matrix, where convention-related sectors were disaggregated. The convention industry has 12 separate categories in the I–O transaction tables and thus this study includes 12 sectors as convention spending.

Data on the number of delegates in conventions were collected by adding up the total number of delegates who participated in international conventions held in Korea without exhibitions. Data relating to expenditures of convention delegates were obtained from the Korea National Tourism Organization (2001)(KNTO).Data collection in the form of a survey was conducted by the KNTO for 723 respondents who participated in international conventions held in Korea during September to December 2000. All survey participants indicated that attending conventions was the main purpose of their visit to Korea. As Table 3 exhibits, average expenditures per delegate were US$1969, including expenditures on hotel(32.7%),restauranand bar(11.5%), local transportation (4.0%), amusement/entertainment (9.2%), shopping (18.7%), travel (7.9%), personal services (8.2%), and business consumption expenditures (8.2%). As Table 2 shows, 33,562 foreign delegates attended 292 conventions. Thus, total expenditure of foreign delegates was calculated by average expenditure per delegate on each expenditure category times the

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济南大学毕业论文外文资料翻译

number of foreign delegates (for example,on hotel category,US$645 33,562=US$21,714,614). Total expenditures by foreign delegates on eight categories were about US$66 million.

3. Results

3.1. Estimation of determined amount of convention spending

Expenditures on each sector that were spent by foreign delegates and convention hosts are described in Table 3. Expenditures by foreign delegates are also shown as those in Table 3. To estimate expenditures spent by convention hosts and percentage of the expenditures on convention-related industries, budgets for about 20 small-, medium, and large-scale international conventions held in 2000 in Korea were analysed and interviews with 10 meeting planners working for international conventions were conducted. As a result, average budget for one international convention (without exhibition) was estimated to be about US$250,000. Thus, total expenditures by convention hosts were estimated to be US$64 million, calculating US$250,000 times 292 (the number of international conventions held in 2000 in Korea).

According to a report in Successful Meetings (2001), meeting expenditures by hosts are distributed to food and beverage (19%), technology (18%), accommodations (14%), airfare (11%), exhibit/exposition space (7%), exhibit service and decor (7%), speaker/trainer(6%), audiovisual (5%), meeting material (4%), space rental (3%), ground transportation (3%), and on-site staff (3%). A study reported in Convene (2001) indicated that expenditures by convention hosts include hotels and other meeting places (35.2%), air transportation(19.2%), restaurants (10.8%), business services(10.5%), ground transportation (11.1%), retail trade(8.5%), entertainment (2.4%), advertising (0.4%),equipment rentals (1.0%), and miscellaneous other business expenses (4.6%). The breakdown of categories of expenditures in the 1995 CLC report mentioned above was also considered.

Considering this information, segments of expenditures by international convention hosts were categorized into printing and publishing (6.0%), audio and visual services(4.0%), retail store (6%), restaurants (11%), hotels(30%), local transportation (2%), travel (4%), communication and broadcasting (4%), business services (16%), amusement/entertainment (4%), and business consumption expenditures (1%) (Table 3). Expenditures by convention hosts calculated in Table 3 are 88% of the total expenditures estimated by convention hosts. The remaining 12% was a portion including on-site staff salaries, guest speaker fees, counseling fees, staff meeting fees, and miscellaneous

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expenditures. These portions were those that did not match industrial sectors for I–O analysis. Thus, expenditures on these categories were excluded in the analysis.

3.2. Convention multipliers

Table 4 shows output, employment, income, and value-added multipliers of general and conventionrelated sectors. The output multiplier measures the amount of output generated from a one-unit change in spending by convention delegates or hosts. Output multipliers of business consumption expenditures(2.5346) and printing/publishing (2.2518) were exceptionally high, ranking the second and third among general and convention-related sectors. High output multipliers of the two industries mean a strong linkage with other industrial sectors. Output multipliers of other convention-related sectors were somewhat less than the sectoral average (1.7825). This means that other convention-related sectors except for business consumption expenditures and printing/publishing are not likely to have a strong association with other industries and thus the effects of output multipliers are considered to be relatively low.

An employment multiplier estimates the number of full-time jobs generated from a one-unit increase in convention delegates or hosts (normally, one million Korean won per unit). Restaurants (0.1489) and hotels(0.1488) showed the highest employment multipliers. They indicate that for every billion won spent, about 148 jobs were created by the restaurants and hotels sectors, respectively. The two sectors mean that the industries are

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labour-intensive. Employment multipliers for shopping (0.0565), personal services (0.0464), culture and recreation services (0.0486), business consumption expenditures (0.0542) exhibited higher than average on each sector. Thus, these sectors are likely to create more jobs through conventions.

The income multiplier measures the effect of an extra unit of convention spending on the changes that result in level of household incomes in the convention-hosting region or country (Howard & Crompton, 1995). The income multiplier is important because it most clearly demonstrates the econom ic impact on residents’ welfare(Fridgen, 1996). Sectors for restaurants (0.4297), hotels(0.4091), miscellaneous services, incidental tour transportation (0.4321), personal services (0.4126), and culture and recreational services (0.4149) showed relatively highincome multipliers. This means that these sectors are likely to contribute to generating more income for residents. Conversely, audio/visual equipment (0.1988), transportation(0.2666),business consumption expenditures(0.2313), communication/broadcasting (0.3146), and business services (0.3072) were less than the sectoral average. Thus, these sectors are not likely to generate relatively high incomes for residents.

Value added used in this study includes wages and salaries, operating surplus, depreciation of fixed capital, and indirect tax less subsidies (Lee & Kwon, 1995). For example, value added multiplier of 0.9416 in the shopping sector means that every dollar spent by the shopping sector generated US$0.9416 of value added for the shopping sector. Except for value added multipliers of audio/visual equipment (0.5359), transportation(0.5878), and business consumption expenditures (0.6781), those of other convention-related sectors were larger than the sectoral average (0.7878). Especially,value added multipliers for shopping, personal services, business services, and culture and recreational services sectors ranked 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th among all 34 sectors. Thus, these sectors show a relatively high propensity for generating value added among convention-related sectors.

Table 5 shows indirect tax and import multipliers, and coefficients and their ranks. Indirect tax is defined in this study as mainly commodity and excise taxes, excluding customs duty and taxes on imported goods. Among convention-related sectors, the largest indirect tax multiplier was personal services (0.1388), indicating every dollar spent by convention delegates or hosts generated about 14 cents of government revenue for the personal services sector. The following highest tax multipliers were culture and recreation services(0.1020) and business consumption expenditures(0.0801), ranking the 7th and 9th, respectively. These three tax multipliers were higher than average on the 34 sectors. Thus,

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- 10 - the three sectors are likely to produce more tax revenues for the local government than other industry sectors. However, multipliers of the other eight sectors among convention-related sectors were lower than the sectoral average, indicating relatively lower

contribution to producing tax revenues for the local government.

The largest import multiplier among conventionrelated sectors was found in audio/visual equipment, showing 0.4641. This indicates that every dollar spent by convention delegates or hosts generated 46 cents of import. Import multipliers higher than sector average(0.2122) were audio/visual equipment (0.4641), transportation (0.4122), business consumption expenditures(0.3219), and printing/publishing (0.2335). This means that these convention-related sectors are dependent on imported materials and may result in an increase in expenditure. However, eight among 12 sectors showed lower import multipliers than the sectoral average,indicating these sectors are likely to be less dependent on imports.

Index of the power dispersion represents the magnitude of backward linkage effect that is defined as the effect of all industries affected by change of one unit in final demand from a certain industry. Indices of business consumption expenditures (1.4219) and printing/publishing (1.2633) ranked the second and the third among general and convention-related sectors. It means that the two sectors have a great effect on all industries. In contrast, the indices for other 10 sectors were relatively low, indicating low impacts on all industries. The results indicate that since convention-related sectors are products of final demand type, the effects of convention-related sectors on all industries are likely to be somewhat low.

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Index of the sensitivity dispersion shows the magnitude of forward linkage effect that is defined as the effect of a certain industry affected by change of one unit in final demand from each of all industries. Indices of communication/broadcasting (1.0496), business services(1.5283), business consumption expenditures (1.3077),were greater than 1, showing high level of power of forward linkage effect. It means that the three sectors are likely to be greatly affected by other industries. However, the indices of other nine convention-related sectors were less than 1, indicating low magnitude of forward linkage effect.

4. Economic impacts of the convention industry

In this study, the economic impacts of the Korean convention industry were estimated by multiplying the total convention receipts by the corresponding convention-related sectors’ multipliers in terms of output, employment, income, value added, indirect tax, and import. In 2000, total expenditures by foreign delegates and convention hosts were estimated to be about US$130.4 million. Table 6 shows the economic impacts of the convention industry. These convention receipts generated US$217.3 million of output as a result of their direct and indirect impacts. Direct impacts of the output appear to be dominated over indirect impacts, indicating 86.8%. The total convention receipts created 13,702 fulltime equivalent jobs, adding 12,226 by direct impacts and 1476 by indirect impacts. The direct impacts were 89.5% of the total impacts. The total convention receipts also generated US$47.4 million of personal income to the residents by adding US$32.9 million by direct impacts and US$14.5 million by indirect

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impacts together. The direct impacts are larger than indirect impacts, showing 69.3% of the total. The total impacts of value added were US$114.6 million and direct impacts were greater than indirect effects as 62.7%.Out of US$11.9 million of indirect tax, the direct impacts were slightly higher than the indirect impacts as 59.6% of the total. US$15.6 million of imports was generated from the total convention receipts, and the indirect impacts were greater than the direct impacts, representing 66.5%.

The substitution effect of conventions for export goods was analysed in order to understand the convention industry’s e conomic performance as compared with the export industry (see Table 7). Semiconductors(128 M DRAM), passenger cars (1500 cc), and TV (21 in analogue type) were considered to be major products that Korea exports abroad. Per capita expenditures by a foreign delegate were $1969, being equivalent to 787 semiconductors, 0.2 passenger cars, and 5.97 TV sets. Additionally, total expenditures (US$66.1 million) by foreign delegates were equivalent to 26.4 semiconductors, 6615 passenger cars, and 0.2 million TV sets. Considering foreign exchange earnings, the substitution effect was revealed to be greater. Per capita expenditures (US$1648) by a delegate were equivalent to 970 semiconductors, 0.22 passenger cars, and 8.33 TV sets. Likewise, total expenditures by all foreign delegates were the same as 32.6 million semiconductors, 7342 passenger cars, and 0.28 million TV sets.

5. Conclusions

This study investigated the economic impact of the convention industry in Korea. Total expenditures by foreign delegates and by convention hosts were about US$66 million and US$73 million, respectively. Economic impacts by six types of multipliers were described above. The convention receipts of about US$130 million generated US$217 million of output, 13,702 full timeequivalent jobs, US$47.4 million of personal income to the residents, US$114.6 million of value added, US$11.9 million of government revenue, and US$15.6 million of import. These results indicate that the convention industry will be a potential generator as a high-yield area.

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In terms of substitution effect, total expenditures of US$66.1 million spent by all foreign delegates were equivalent to exporting 26.4 semiconductors, 6615 passenger cars, and 0.2 million TV sets. Considering foreign exchange earnings, the total expenditures spent by all foreign delegates were equivalent to 32.6 million semiconductors, 7342 passenger cars, and 0.28 million TV sets. Thus, these results show that the convention industry is a high value-added export. As well as the above economic benefits, there are many other social

and cultural benefits such as enhancing the image of the venue country or city and residents’ quality of life.Additionally, the convention industry does not create much pollution compared to electric, chemical or other manufacturing industries. Thus, it is beneficial to promote the convention industry.

Finally, this study was to assess the economic impact of the convention industry at the national level. This means that due to spatial distribution of conferences held in Korea, economic impact of the convention industry in Korea may bring different inter-regional leakages and injection effects. However, Korea is a small country in terms of size for a convention delegate to take a day trip from the convention venue to the farthest place in Korea. Thus, economic impacts by the convention industry in Korea seem to occur at the national level rather than at a given region.

References

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[2]Braun, B. M. (1992). The economic contribution of conventions: The case of

Orlando, Florida. Journal of Travel Research, 30(3), 32–37.

[3]Burgan, B., & Mules, T. (1992). Economic impact of sporting events. Annals of Tourism Research, 19, 700–710.

[4]Convene (2001). Meeting industry almanac, September (p. 56).

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recreation agency lose $9375 or gain $525,000? California Parks and Recreation,

54(2), 34–39.

[6]Crompton, J. L., & McKay, S. L. (1994). Measuring the economic impacts of festivals and events: Some myths, misapplications and ethical dilemmas. Festival Management & Event Tourism, 2,33–43.

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79–87.

[8]Felsenstein, D., & Freeman, D. (1998). Simulating the impacts of gambling in a tourist location: Some evidence from Israel. Journal of Travel Research, 37(2), 145–155.

[9]Frechtling, D. C., & Horvath, E. (1999). Estimating the multiplier effects of tourism expenditures on a local economy through a regional input–output model. Journal of

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Travel Research, 37,324–332.

[10]Fridgen, J. D. (1996). Dimensions of tourism. East Lansing, Michigan:AH & MA.

[11]Howard, D. R., & Crompton, J. L. (1995). Financing sport. Morgantown, WV: Fitness Information Technology.

[12]Johnson, L., Foo, L. M., & O’Hallo ran, M. (1999). Meetings make their mark: Characteristics and economic contribution of Australia’s meetings and exhibitions sector. Occasional paper No 6, BTR,Canberra.

[13]Johnson, D. G., & Sullivan, J. (1993). Economic impacts of civil war battlefield preservation: An ex-ante evaluation. Journal of Travel Research, 32(1), 21–29.

[14]Hutchinson, J. (1997). Tourism-getting it right for the millennium. Sydney: SCVB.

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[16]Lee, C., & Kwon, K. (1995). Importance of secondary impact of foreign tourism receipts on the South Korean economy. Journal of Travel Research, 34(2), 50–54.

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3d91888352ea551811a68718.

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Tourism Management, 2003,(24) :533–541

韩国会展业的经济影响分析

塞缪尔桑普金，卡也成，圭钟柳

酒店及旅游管理学院，世宗大学，首尔，韩国

酒店及旅游管理学院，香港理工大学，红磡，九龙，香港

摘要这项研究的目的是评估会展业对韩国经济的影响。用投入产出模型探讨会展业在产出、就业、收入，增值和进口方面的经济影响。考虑到乘数效应、汇率收益率和替代效应，会展业与其他相比，主要出口产品。根据这项研究结果，估计会展业对韩国的经济影响是十分显著的。

关键词会展；投入产出模型；乘数；替代效应

一、前言

当今时代，无论是在全球还是具体的国家，会议，奖励旅游，会议和展览（MICE）行业成为旅游行业中发展最快的部门之一。根据一个国际协会联盟的报告（UIA），在2000年共举办展会9433场，其中前五位的举办国的分别是美国（1303;国际会展市场的13.8％），法国（632;6.7％），英国（613;6.5％），德国（591;6.3％），和意大利（430;4.5％）。这五个国家占世界展会市场的54.7％。据一项在2001年成功会议上发布的报告显示，2000年的会议行业消费仅在美国总额为1221美元。这个数字包括企业、协会会议和奖励旅游细分市场的支出。总的实现了8.6％的美元数量增长，符合自1992年以来年平均增长9%的增长速度（成功会议，2001年）。

1980-1996年间，亚洲太平洋地区的会展市场上也增长了124%（哈钦森，1997）。特别是澳大利亚的会议和展览业，据估计每年大约会产生7亿美元直接用于经济支出（约翰逊富和奥哈洛伦，1999年）。1996-1997年国际服务人员在悉尼举行会议期间，平均在这座城市停留6.9晚，在澳大利亚10天，在会议注册、住宿、国内机票、购物、餐饮和其他成本上平均花费5722美元，数量达到了大约每天770美元（麦凯布，普尔，维克斯和雷普尔，2000）。参加国际会议的外国代表中，有79%的人在澳大利亚停留时，更趋向于选择四星级、五星级的酒店，所有的会议代表中，有大约50%的人会参加前后的旅游，平均在这个国家停留3.1天（麦凯布等人，2000年）。最近韩国政府意识到了会展业的重要性，在2000年春季开放的国际规模的会展中心COEX 之前，这里只有小型的会议和展览中心。COEX已经承办了一些国际会展，包括第三届亚欧会议（ASEM）、第十四届世界旅游组织（WTO）的一般会议。在省级政府层面，大邱和釜山是第一批由当地政府分别在2001年4月和5月份通过运用当地主要

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济南大学毕业论文外文资料翻译

资金开放的城市。慢慢的，大规模会展中心的修建已经或计划成为省级或当地政府为刺激当地经济的措施。韩国政府在1996年12月通过了一项法律以促进会展业在制度化的法治环境下更好地发展。随着全球性活动的发生，如2002年的世界杯和亚运会，会展业得到了快速的发展，预计会受到更大的关注。

根据UIA的报告，韩国在2000年以109场展会排名第24，在亚洲地区排名第四位（韩国国家旅游组织）。因此，2000年世界举办的9433场国际展会中，韩国的份额占到了1.15%。如表1所示，在2000年少于100个外国代表的展会大约占到了75%。2000年外国参与者的数量是33562，相比于1999年增长了1.7%（表2）。

会展业能够产生巨大经济影响的原因，大体上可以概括为以下几点：(1)展会代表的数量很大；（2）带一个城市或国家停留的天数比那些有着其他目的的休闲游客要长；（3）国际展会代表消费大；（4）参加展会的代表也会加入前后的游览（为了娱乐）；（5）各种相关产业会受到影响。因此，由于国际展会对举办国家或城市产生巨大经济影响，一些国家或城市做出了很大的努力以促进会展业的发展。

这项研究的目的是调查那些有外国代表参加的国际展会的经济影响。为了探讨会展业对一国的经济影响，运用了投入-产出模型。投入-产出模型是一个用来估计当游客或观光者在一个地区或国家时的花费的合适方法，这直接产生了产出或销售、居民收入、就业和其他形式的经济收益活动（弗雷希特林和霍瓦特，1999年）。

表1 1988-2000年参加韩国会展的外国代表数量

来源：韩国国家旅游组织（2001）

注：这些数据是由韩国国家旅游组织手收集的，在这里会展的定义不同于UIA，在该表中，会展被定义为一次会议，例如会议，代表会，讲习会，没有展览品的研讨会。除此之外，会展被定义为一次超过十名来自三个以上国家的外国代表参加的会议。

使用投入-产出模型来探索观光者和游客为一个国家或地区带来的总贡献的研究已经有许多了：一个国家的游客（李和权），一个地区的游客（弗雷希特林和霍瓦特，1999年；约翰逊和沙利文，1993年；乌伊萨尔，波默罗伊和波茨，1992年），节日或事件（伯根和毛尔斯，1992年；克朗普顿和金，1998年；克朗普顿，李和舒斯特，

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济南大学毕业论文外文资料翻译

2001年；克朗普顿和麦克，1994年），和赌博（费尔森斯丁和弗里曼，1998;李和权，1995年）。

不幸的是，一些关于会展业的经济影响的研究尚未进行。在审查重大旅游杂志例如旅游管理，年报旅游研究和杂志旅游研究时，布劳恩在1992年的研究是唯一一篇报告会展业经济影响的文章。为什么关于会展业的经济影响的研究并不普遍的原因有很多。第一，会展业在最近被确认为一个重要的旅游市场。第二，很难区分代表、赞助商、参展商的会展消费。第三，很难分解受会展业影响的产业，因为会展业与许多产业都有联系。第四，根据展会不同的性质分为各种展会类型，包括赞助商的类型（企业或协会等），代表的数量，展会时间的长短，是否伴随展览或其他事件，预算规模，是否有前后的旅游展览项目，因此，这些因素抑制了关于会展业对一个国家或地区经济的影响的研究。

表2 1995-2000年韩国会展外国代表的数量及增长率

来源：韩国国家旅游组织（2001）

注：同表1

一项由布劳恩（1992年）进行的研究确定了会展业对奥兰多，佛罗里达州的经济贡献。他把展会的消费类型分为代表，赞助商和参展商的消费。在他的研究中估计了167万名代表的总消费，并且把这些数量进一步分解为以下几种：住宿（5.31亿美元：56％），餐馆（2.34亿美元：24.7％），零售商店（8600万美元：9.1％），娱乐（5200万美元：5.5％），和当地交通运输（4500万美元：4.7％）。布劳恩（1992）的研究表明，在奥兰多展会期间组织协会的支出总额为9400万美元：服务如宴会和餐饮业（超过万26美元：27.6％），会议室，展览空间，设备租赁和服务（3600万美元：38.3％），员工开支酒店，餐饮，交通（900万美元：9.6％），和嘉宾演讲费，娱乐和夫妻项目（2300万美元：24.5％）。他的研究讨论了参展商的餐饮服务花费了5920万美元，推广费用（3400万美元：57.4%），酒店套房（950万美元：16%），服务合同（570万美元：9.62%），及其他（820万美元：13.8%）。

布劳恩（1992）指出，会展消费直接影响以下部门：酒店和其他住宿部门；饮食场所；零售业；娱乐和休闲；会员组织；运输服务；商业服务；社会服务；建筑材料和园艺供应；健康服务；维修服务；博物馆，植物园和动物园。把会展总消费11.9

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亿美元用作奥兰多地区的产出出口以便从区外产生新的收益。总影响估计超过65000个工作机会，4.57亿美元的收入，22.8亿美元的产出，8800万美元的当地税收和1500万的州税。

由会展联络理事会（CLC）在1995年发布的一项报告估计了会议，展览，鼓励旅游对美国经济的影响。在报告中指出，主要的对行业相关的直接支出的来源为活动赞助商（企业和协会），协会和企业代表，以及展览组织机构。直接消费总额达828.1亿美元，其中会议及博览会（约合522.7亿美元），会议（约合270.4亿美元），和奖励旅游（35亿美元）。这些消费创造了157万全职工作，所产生的总直接税收达123亿美元。按照行业细分直接消费的结果如下，每个主要部门包括酒店和其他的会议场所（32.5％），航空运输（23.3％），餐馆（12.1％），商用服务业（6.6％），地面运输（8.6％），零售业（6.7％），娱乐（4.5％），广告（0.3％），设备租赁（0.6％），杂项等业务支出（2.9％），不明行业（1.2％），游船（0.4％），促销（0.3％）。

以上两项研究分析了展会消费对一个地区或国家产生的经济影响。然而两项研究都有其局限性。布劳恩（1992年）的研究布劳恩（1992）研究了包括如社会服务，建筑材料和园艺用品，健康服务，维修服务以及博物馆和植物花园和动物园等直接受到会展消费影响的行业。然而，更直接受到赞助商影响的行业可能是印刷和出版，视听服务，通信和广播，和商业服务（包括维修和清洗，等）。此外，在计算总的影响时，他考虑了32个部门（在这里，自然包括了旅游业）。但是其他行业如银行，法律服务，保险服务，以及运输和仓储也是最易受展会消费影响的行业。结果在运用投入-产出模型估计地区展会消费时可能会产生一个膨胀图。

1995年CLC的研究中，没有分别计算展会赞助商、展会代表、参展商的消费，而是综合的将展会消费进行了分类。然而似乎很难通过三种来源直接将消费分派到会展产业中。原因是很难追查消费者支出的来源，因为正如布劳恩（1992）所表示的那样，根据代表，展会赞助商，参展商可以划分成各种消费支出。例如食品服务的支出者可以是全部的代表、赞助商、参展商或者是其中之一，因此1995年CLC的研究方法是令人怀疑的。

因此这项研究将支出源头分为代表和展会赞助商。参展商的消费支出是不包括在内的，因为这项研究中的展会是没有展览品的。更确切地说，在这项研究中的一个“展会”被定义为一个会议，如会议，代表大会，研讨会，并没有伴随展览研讨会。除此之外，这种展会有超过十个来自三个国家以上的国外代表参加来分享信息。

二、方法和数据

用于这项研究的投入-产出模型是基于由韩国银行最新提出的投入-产出交易表（2001年）。来自交易表中的405×405的部门按与展会的相关性汇总成39×39的矩阵。

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济南大学毕业论文外文资料翻译

在投入-产出交易表中有12个不同类别，因此这项研究包括了12个会展支出部门。展会中关于代表数量的数据是通过计算参加在韩国举行的没有展览品的国际展会的总和进行收集的。有关展会代表支出的数据是从韩国国家旅游组织（2001）（KNTO）得出的。数据的收集是以调查的形式采集的，来自KNTO在2000年九月到十二月之间参加韩国举行的国际会展的723名受访者。所有的调查参与者表示，出席展会是他们访问韩国的主要目的。正如表三所示，每个代表的平均支出1969美元，其中住宿支出（32.7 %），酒店餐厅和酒吧（11.5 %）、当地交通（4.0 %），娱乐/娱乐（9.2 %）、购物（18.7 %），旅游（7.9 %）个人服务（8.2 %），与商业消费支出（8.2 %）。如表2所示，33562名外国代表参加292场展会。因此外国代表的总支出应该用每种类别中每位代表的平均支出乘以外国代表的数量来计算（例如住宿支出，$645×33562=$21714614）。外国代表在八种类别上的总支出大约为6600万美元。

三、结果

(一)决定展会支出数量的估算

表3介绍了每个部门中外国代表和展会主持的支出。国外代表的支出业在表3中展现了。为了估算展会主持人的消费和展会相关产业支出的百分比，对2000年在韩国举办的20场小、中、大规模的国际展会进行了分析并且对于10场会议的计划者进行了采访。结果发现一场没有展览品的国际展会的平均预算为25万美元。因此展会主持的总支出为$250000×292（2000年韩国举办国际展会的数量），即6400万美元。根据成功会议（2001年）的一项报告，会议支出可分为食物饮料（19%），技术（18%），住宿（14%），机票（11%），表现出活动空间（7%），服务和装饰（7%），扬声器或教练（6%），视听（5%），会议材料（4%），空间租赁（3%），交通运输（3%）和现场工作人员（3%）。在一个研究报告（2001）显示通过召开会议的支出包括酒店其他会议场所（35.2%），航空运输（19.2%），餐厅（10.8%），商业服务（10.5%），交通运输（11.1%），零售贸易（8.5%），娱乐（2.4%），广告（0.4%），设备租赁（1%），和其他杂项营业费用（4.6%）。在1995年CLC中所说的展会支出分类也是这样认为的。

考虑到这一信息，按国际展会的支出部门分为印刷和出版（6%），音频和视频服务（4%）（6%），零售商店，餐馆，酒店（11%）（30%），当地交通（2%），旅游（4%），通信和广播（4%），商业服务（16%），娱乐（4%），和商业消费支出（1%）（表3）。在表3中计算展会主持的支出约占总消费支出的88%。剩余的12%被分派到了包括现场工作人员工资，主讲嘉宾费，咨询费，员工会议费，杂项支出上。这些是那些不符合投入-产出分析中的产业部门的。因此这些部门的支出是不包括在内的。

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济南大学毕业论文外文资料翻译

表3外国代表在每个行业的消费支出

注：88%的会展主持的消费都计算在内，剩余12%不包括在内

（二）会展乘数

表4显示的就是产出，就业，收入和一般或会展相关产业的增值乘数。产出乘数衡量的是展会代表或主持的支出每变化一个单位所带来的产出数量。商业消费支出的产出乘数（2.5436）和印刷/出版（2.2518）很高，分别位于展会相关产业的第二位和第三位。这两个部门的高产出乘数意味着他们与其他产业之间的关联性很强。其他会展相关行业的产出乘数比行业平均水平（1.7825）稍差一些。这就意味着除了商业消费支出和印刷出版以外的其他会展相关部门与其他行业没有很强的关联性，因此产出乘数的影响也相对比较弱。

就业乘数估计的是数量全职工作会展代表或主持每增加一单位做带来的全职工作的数量（通常是一百万韩元每单位）。餐馆（0.1489）和酒店（0.1488）显示了最高的就业乘数。他们表示，每十亿亿韩元的花费，约148个工作是由餐馆及酒店分别创造的。这两个部门是劳动密集型。就业乘数中购物（0.0565），个人服务（0.0464），文化和娱乐服务（0.0486），商务消费支出（0.0542）表现出高于平均行业水平。因此在会展中这些部门可能会创造很多就业机会。

收入乘数衡量的是会展消费每额外变化一单位导致的会展城市或国家家庭收入的变化（霍华德和康普顿，1995年）。收入乘数是非常重要的，因为它清楚地说明了对居民福利的经济影响（佛里根，1996）。餐馆（0.4297），酒店（0.4091），杂项服务，附带旅游运输（0.4321），个人服务（0.4126），和文化娱乐服务（0.4149）等部门显示了相对高的收入乘数。这意味着，这些部门都可能会带来更多的居民收入。相反，音频/视频设备（0.1988）运输（0.2666）、商务消费支出（0.2313），通讯/广播（0.3146），和商务服务（0.3072）低于部门平均水平。因此这些部门可能不会带来相对高的居民收入。

用于这项研究的价值增值包括工资，经营盈余，固定资产折旧，与间接税减补贴（李权，1995年）。例如，购物部门的0.9416的价值增值乘数意味着一美元的购物消费可产生0.9416美元的价值增值。除了音频/视频设备（0.5359），运输（0.5878），和商业消费支出（0.6781），其他会展相关部门的增值乘数都高于行业平均水平（0.7878）。尤其是，附加价值乘数购物，个人服务，商业服务，文化娱乐服务行业

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